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A do over on drafting Killian?

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A do over on drafting Killian? 

Post#1 » by Laimbeer » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:54 pm

A simple concept - what players of the same 2020 draft could we swap him for at this point?

I looked at a couple of 2020 re-drafts after the rookie seasons and came up with players whose new slots are similar to Hayes, as well as the trade possibly making sense to both teams.

Kenyon Martin Jr - Rockets are rebuilding and might want to take a shot on Hayes. Martin looks like a solid wing.
Obi Toppin - We need a bigger guy, not sure if the Knicks are interested in a project. They have Kemba and Rose.
Aleksej Pokusevski - Crazy potential and risk. Does OKC like Hayes more? They have a young point in Maledon.
Deni Avdija - Might make sense for them if they cash in Beal and go rebuild. Deni, like Hayes, was hurt and had a shaky season.
Jaden McDaniels - Tough sell as the Wolves like him and are win now. Have DLo with Beverley in reserve.
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2) He can be traded later
3) It's only __% of the cap
4) The cap is going up
5) It's only __ years
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Re: A do over on drafting Killian? 

Post#2 » by bstein14 » Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:05 pm

Trade value is worth a 2nd rounder in the 31-40 range right now. I'm honestly expecting Weaver to not pick up his 3rd year option. He has to make that decision by the end of October, so he'll get to see what Killian brings in training camp, the Preseason, and a little bit of the start of the season... but from what I've seen there is no way he's worth the $5.9 million cap hit next year. Even if Weaver wanted to keep him on as a project for a backup PG he could likely just resign him at the minimum or slightly above, unless he shows a ton of improvement this year.
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Re: A do over on drafting Killian? 

Post#3 » by Manocad » Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:44 pm

bstein14 wrote:Trade value is worth a 2nd rounder in the 31-40 range right now. I'm honestly expecting Weaver to not pick up his 3rd year option. He has to make that decision by the end of October, so he'll get to see what Killian brings in training camp, the Preseason, and a little bit of the start of the season... but from what I've seen there is no way he's worth the $5.9 million cap hit next year. Even if Weaver wanted to keep him on as a project for a backup PG he could likely just resign him at the minimum or slightly above, unless he shows a ton of improvement this year.

Bingo. Hayes' path IMO is that he either proves he's a player of the future, either as a starter or core bench player, or not even worth worrying about. If he statistically stays at the bottom of the NBA where he is now, no one is going to trade bupkus for him. Throw it out there, sure, but be prepared to just decline his third year and move on.
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Re: A do over on drafting Killian? 

Post#4 » by JohnReese » Sun Sep 26, 2021 8:49 pm

Hayes is 20 y/o and has played 26 games.

This post cannot be serious at all.
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Re: A do over on drafting Killian? 

Post#5 » by Snakebites » Sun Sep 26, 2021 8:57 pm

You don’t sell low.

Worst case scenario he busts and we lost the opportunity to acquire some minor asset. Best case he becomes a viable starter/veteran player. Worth the opportunity risk IMO.
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Re: A do over on drafting Killian? 

Post#6 » by Snakebites » Sun Sep 26, 2021 8:58 pm

You don’t sell low.

Worst case scenario he busts and we lost the opportunity to acquire some minor asset. Best case he becomes a viable starter/veteran player. Worth the opportunity risk IMO.
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Re: A do over on drafting Killian? 

Post#7 » by Pharaoh » Sun Sep 26, 2021 11:52 pm

Laimbeer wrote:A simple concept - what players of the same 2020 draft could we swap him for at this point?

I looked at a couple of 2020 re-drafts after the rookie seasons and came up with players whose new slots are similar to Hayes, as well as the trade possibly making sense to both teams.

Kenyon Martin Jr - Rockets are rebuilding and might want to take a shot on Hayes. Martin looks like a solid wing.
Obi Toppin - We need a bigger guy, not sure if the Knicks are interested in a project. They have Kemba and Rose.
Aleksej Pokusevski - Crazy potential and risk. Does OKC like Hayes more? They have a young point in Maledon.
Deni Avdija - Might make sense for them if they cash in Beal and go rebuild. Deni, like Hayes, was hurt and had a shaky season.
Jaden McDaniels - Tough sell as the Wolves like him and are win now. Have DLo with Beverley in reserve.
Way too early for this but the only dude on that list we might be able to swap Hayes for is Deni.

The rest of those guys are all highly valued by their fanbase, at least based on what I read on the trade board.

Hayes? He carries the baton of hate now

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Re: A do over on drafting Killian? 

Post#8 » by Snakebites » Mon Sep 27, 2021 12:05 am

Pharaoh wrote:
Laimbeer wrote:A simple concept - what players of the same 2020 draft could we swap him for at this point?

I looked at a couple of 2020 re-drafts after the rookie seasons and came up with players whose new slots are similar to Hayes, as well as the trade possibly making sense to both teams.

Kenyon Martin Jr - Rockets are rebuilding and might want to take a shot on Hayes. Martin looks like a solid wing.
Obi Toppin - We need a bigger guy, not sure if the Knicks are interested in a project. They have Kemba and Rose.
Aleksej Pokusevski - Crazy potential and risk. Does OKC like Hayes more? They have a young point in Maledon.
Deni Avdija - Might make sense for them if they cash in Beal and go rebuild. Deni, like Hayes, was hurt and had a shaky season.
Jaden McDaniels - Tough sell as the Wolves like him and are win now. Have DLo with Beverley in reserve.
Way too early for this but the only dude on that list we might be able to swap Hayes for is Deni.

The rest of those guys are all highly valued by their fanbase, at least based on what I read on the trade board.

Hayes? He carries the baton of hate now

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Well, it doesn’t matter what fans think, really.

But the Hayes hate from other teams’ bases is understandable. We wouldn’t be giving Hayes a second look if he was on another team right now. We have hope because we’ve seen more of him and have more investment.

Not that that’d be right necessarily, but guy hasn’t shown much.
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Re: A do over on drafting Killian? 

Post#9 » by Spider156 » Mon Sep 27, 2021 1:17 am

JohnReese wrote:Hayes is 20 y/o and has played 26 games.

This post cannot be serious at all.

It is serious and it’s fair. I’m seeing a lot of old posters say the same thing. I think defensively for 5.9m Killian can be worth keeping to come off the bench for when Jackson leaves. We can always sign him for less but the bigger truth is there is so much talent to be had out there that Killian is not make or break our team. The point of this year is to see how much talent we have with all the young pieces and I’m sure we are going to hit on 2-3 players other than our starters. In my opinion guys like Diallo Jacksons and Livers at forward should all have a look at getting a significant role on the team that can start over Killian if needed. Preseason is going to be really interesting!
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Re: A do over on drafting Killian? 

Post#10 » by Spider156 » Mon Sep 27, 2021 1:20 am

Snakebites wrote:You don’t sell low.

Worst case scenario he busts and we lost the opportunity to acquire some minor asset. Best case he becomes a viable starter/veteran player. Worth the opportunity risk IMO.

It really doesn’t matter if he busts because Weaver hit gold on the other two first round picks. After getting Cade we really don’t need to do anything but extend Grant and hit on ONE more draft pick and in my opinion I think a guy like Diallo or Jackson is going to surprise us with their development this year and we’ll have them on cheaper deals than Killian. Also don’t forget we are looking at pick between 5-10 next season so we can still grab a starting shooting guard off the draft. Watch for Houstan on Michigan.
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Re: A do over on drafting Killian? 

Post#11 » by chrbal » Mon Sep 27, 2021 1:24 am

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Just insert what I said in the last thread like this.

His value is at probably its lowest, trading him would be a poor choice
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Re: A do over on drafting Killian? 

Post#12 » by bstein14 » Mon Sep 27, 2021 2:02 am

I'm still hopeful that Killian turns into at least a solid bench player for us. But in reality, I think it's much more likely that Frank Jackson or Saban Lee (from what we've seen) ends up being a better guard and bigger part of our future. He is Weaver's first draft pick, so I'm sure Weaver is still invested him in.... but part of being successful as a GM is also knowing when its time to move on from someone. We waited too long with Darko.... we waited too long with Stanley Johnson, etc.... You want to give the kid a fair shot to start this season, but if its clear he's still really far away from even being an ok bench player then you consider declining that $5.9 million option next year and moving on.

We really only need 9 or 10 rotation players... If we're a lottery team again next year and we add one FA as well with our cap space its going to be really hard to have someone like Killian make the rotation even in his 3rd season.
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Re: A do over on drafting Killian? 

Post#13 » by Pharaoh » Mon Sep 27, 2021 2:11 am

bstein14 wrote:I'm still hopeful that Killian turns into at least a solid bench player for us. But in reality, I think it's much more likely that Frank Jackson or Saban Lee (from what we've seen) ends up being a better guard and bigger part of our future. He is Weaver's first draft pick, so I'm sure Weaver is still invested him in.... but part of being successful as a GM is also knowing when its time to move on from someone. We waited too long with Darko.... we waited too long with Stanley Johnson, etc.... You want to give the kid a fair shot to start this season, but if its clear he's still really far away from even being an ok bench player then you consider declining that $5.9 million option next year and moving on.

We really only need 9 or 10 rotation players... If we're a lottery team again next year and we add one FA as well with our cap space its going to be really hard to have someone like Killian make the rotation even in his 3rd season.
Think you're underestimating what Hayes brings with his awareness, vision, passing and especially his defense.

Declining his option isn't the smartest move either.

Guess after 26 NBA games and 3 SL games I'm taking a wait and see approach

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Re: A do over on drafting Killian? 

Post#14 » by Pharaoh » Mon Sep 27, 2021 2:14 am

Snakebites wrote:
Pharaoh wrote:
Laimbeer wrote:A simple concept - what players of the same 2020 draft could we swap him for at this point?

I looked at a couple of 2020 re-drafts after the rookie seasons and came up with players whose new slots are similar to Hayes, as well as the trade possibly making sense to both teams.

Kenyon Martin Jr - Rockets are rebuilding and might want to take a shot on Hayes. Martin looks like a solid wing.
Obi Toppin - We need a bigger guy, not sure if the Knicks are interested in a project. They have Kemba and Rose.
Aleksej Pokusevski - Crazy potential and risk. Does OKC like Hayes more? They have a young point in Maledon.
Deni Avdija - Might make sense for them if they cash in Beal and go rebuild. Deni, like Hayes, was hurt and had a shaky season.
Jaden McDaniels - Tough sell as the Wolves like him and are win now. Have DLo with Beverley in reserve.
Way too early for this but the only dude on that list we might be able to swap Hayes for is Deni.

The rest of those guys are all highly valued by their fanbase, at least based on what I read on the trade board.

Hayes? He carries the baton of hate now

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Well, it doesn’t matter what fans think, really.

But the Hayes hate from other teams’ bases is understandable. We wouldn’t be giving Hayes a second look if he was on another team right now. We have hope because we’ve seen more of him and have more investment.

Not that that’d be right necessarily, but guy hasn’t shown much.
Fans of other teams don't tend to hate on Hayes though

They see 26 games played, kid aged 20 and move along.

Some here hate him or appear to. Bstein wants us to not pick up his option!

Kid was universally thought of as a top 10 pick in his Draft and I just don't see why we're so quick to move him along or cut him loose

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Re: A do over on drafting Killian? 

Post#15 » by JLiv » Mon Sep 27, 2021 2:29 am

Killian could still be our PGOTF. Rather hold this stock til it goes to 0 than sell it for $5
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Re: A do over on drafting Killian? 

Post#16 » by MotownMadness » Mon Sep 27, 2021 3:23 am

We'll see how much improvement he shows this year before making any quick decisions. I'm just a little skeptical about starting him with Cade.
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Re: A do over on drafting Killian? 

Post#17 » by Pharaoh » Mon Sep 27, 2021 5:20 am

MotownMadness wrote:We'll see how much improvement he shows this year before making any quick decisions. I'm just a little skeptical about starting him with Cade.
I'd actually prefer to start Hayes with Cade as defensively we could put Cade on the least threatening guard to start games.

There's this weird idea that every single possession has to start and end with Cade though so having another playmaker out there seems to bother them



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Re: A do over on drafting Killian? 

Post#18 » by whitehops » Mon Sep 27, 2021 6:00 am

Pharaoh wrote:I'd actually prefer to start Hayes with Cade as defensively we could put Cade on the least threatening guard to start games.

There's this weird idea that every single possession has to start and end with Cade though so having another playmaker out there seems to bother them


both cory joseph and saben lee had a better assist %, assist per 36 minutes, assist per 100 possessions, and ast:to ratio than hayes. what makes them lesser playmakers than hayes?
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Re: A do over on drafting Killian? 

Post#19 » by 440BB » Mon Sep 27, 2021 8:37 am

I think I'll pass on this conjecture until the kid has a real training camp, preseason and at least another 26 NBA games. I may not be optimistic that he becomes a starter on a contender but he has the vision, passing and defensive skills now to be a useful role player. As the Pistons are in another development season it makes sense to let him develop a bit before moving on. If Weaver sees enough progress in the near term I'm OK with keeping him for the next season too.

I draw the line at the 2023 season, when we start contending and it's time to be effective in the rotation or move on.
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Re: A do over on drafting Killian? 

Post#20 » by Billl » Mon Sep 27, 2021 1:39 pm

whitehops wrote:
Pharaoh wrote:I'd actually prefer to start Hayes with Cade as defensively we could put Cade on the least threatening guard to start games.

There's this weird idea that every single possession has to start and end with Cade though so having another playmaker out there seems to bother them


both cory joseph and saben lee had a better assist %, assist per 36 minutes, assist per 100 possessions, and ast:to ratio than hayes. what makes them lesser playmakers than hayes?


Court vision? Cojo makes solid, veteran plays that are totally unspectacular. Move the ball to the open man and get an assist of the ball goes in the basket. Lee can break down a defense and get guys open jumpers. Hayes can make passes that get guys bunnies. Unfortunately, he turns it over often, played scared for half the games, and couldn't hit a jumper. He sees stuff that our other guards don't, but the rest of his game was just flat bad last season. Hopefully he's been working this summer.

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