The Tank Thread: 21-22 Edition (Currently 3rd Place)

Collymore · Post #321 » by **Collymore** » Wed Apr 6, 2022 9:10 am

It didn't work out this time but I have to give the true tank award to OKC when they sit out young players with around 10 i PER and low single digit numbers in every category because they bring to much to the table.

bstein14 · Post #322 » by **bstein14** » Wed Apr 6, 2022 12:10 pm

I'm happy to finish 1-2 down the stretch and be in a 3rd/4th tie with OKC. I think that's the most likely scenario.

It would be a bummer to finish 2-1 and end up in a 4th/5th place tie with Indiana at this point.... Indy might not win again.

I think with as well as we have played lately, even our bench and G League guys, we're unlikely to go 0-3 unless we sit Stew & Bey.

The Moose · Post #323 » by **The Moose** » Wed Apr 6, 2022 12:17 pm

bstein14 wrote:I'm happy to finish 1-2 down the stretch and be in a 3rd/4th tie with OKC. I think that's the most likely scenario.

It would be a bummer to finish 2-1 and end up in a 4th/5th place tie with Indiana at this point.... Indy might not win again.

I think with as well as we have played lately, even our bench and G League guys, we're unlikely to go 0-3 unless we sit Stew & Bey.

Yea the gap in odds between 4th and 5th seems far bigger than 3rd and 4th

Manocad · Post #324 » by **Manocad** » Wed Apr 6, 2022 12:50 pm

The Moose wrote:
bstein14 wrote:I'm happy to finish 1-2 down the stretch and be in a 3rd/4th tie with OKC. I think that's the most likely scenario.

It would be a bummer to finish 2-1 and end up in a 4th/5th place tie with Indiana at this point.... Indy might not win again.

I think with as well as we have played lately, even our bench and G League guys, we're unlikely to go 0-3 unless we sit Stew & Bey.

Yea the gap in odds between 4th and 5th seems far bigger than 3rd and 4th

Yeah, 5th is kinda messed up relatively speaking. While it does come with a 42.13% chance of picking top 4 it has the lowest odds in the entire draft by far of picking in its slated draft position (2.22%). So if you don't jump into one of the 1-4 spots you're almost guaranteed to be picking 6th or lower, even if the 1-4 teams fall exactly into the 1-4 spots respectively, i.e. no one lower "jumps in."

1-3 - 52.14% chance of picking 1-4
4th - 11.46% chance of picking 4th
6th- 8.62% chance of picking 6th
7th - 19.72% chance of picking 7th

Then all the following positions have the highest single draft position odds of picking at their slated draft position.

Post #325 » by **Snakebites** » Wed Apr 6, 2022 1:15 pm

I peeked up when I saw the Magic won, but then I remembered that they don’t really matter anymore. I can’t see them winning 2 more.

The 5th spot is a weird one for sure. It doesn’t help it’s perception in these parts that we were particularly unlucky when we were in that spot in this system, falling to 7th.

440BB · Post #326 » by **440BB** » Wed Apr 6, 2022 2:33 pm

I'm rooting for the Portland tank as their pick may be on the table for Grant. Also hoping the Pelicans lose out in the the play in, conveying their pick to Portland as another asset. After the lottery I want them to have a full cupboard before we start dealing, assuming we are serious about moving Grant.

Manocad · Post #327 » by **Manocad** » Wed Apr 6, 2022 2:54 pm

The Moose wrote:
GreekAlex wrote:
The Moose wrote:0-3 will guarantee us 3rd at worst
1-2 will guarantee us tied 3rd at worst

How so?

If OKC loses out and we win one, doesn’t it go to a coin flip?

That would be tied 3rd
But yes, there would be a coin toss, so we could fall to 4th after that, but our odds for pick 1-4 would still be better than they will if we come outright 4th

Tied for 3rd, i.e. the 3rd worst and 4th worst teams, have the same lottery odds which is the average of the #1-3 odds and the #4 odds. The coin flip determines who gets spot #3 (guaranteed no worse than 7th) and spot #4 (guaranteed no worse than 8th).

The Moose · Post #328 » by **The Moose** » Wed Apr 6, 2022 3:27 pm

Manocad wrote:
The Moose wrote:
GreekAlex wrote:
How so?

If OKC loses out and we win one, doesn’t it go to a coin flip?

That would be tied 3rd
But yes, there would be a coin toss, so we could fall to 4th after that, but our odds for pick 1-4 would still be better than they will if we come outright 4th

Tied for 3rd, i.e. the 3rd worst and 4th worst teams, have the same lottery odds which is the average of the #1-3 odds and the #4 odds. The coin flip determines who gets spot #3 (guaranteed no worse than 7th) and spot #4 (guaranteed no worse than 8th).

Right, but my understanding is that those new odds are slightly worse than what the odds would be for outright 3rd, and slightly better than what they would be for outright 4th.
So ending up in 4th after the tiebreaker is still better than ending up outright 4th.

Post #329 » by **Cowology** » Wed Apr 6, 2022 3:35 pm

I always just assume that 1-2 teams will jump us. That's life. So if we finish 3rd there is a very good chance we're picking 4th or 5th. If we finish 4th there is a very good chance we're either 5th or 6th. I very rarely get caught up in thinking about actually moving up, and oddly enough staying in exactly the same spot seems almost impossible.

In a nutshell I expect 4th-6th for us. *shrug* But I'd rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed on lottery night.

Manocad · Post #330 » by **Manocad** » Wed Apr 6, 2022 4:03 pm

The Moose wrote:
Manocad wrote:
The Moose wrote:
That would be tied 3rd
But yes, there would be a coin toss, so we could fall to 4th after that, but our odds for pick 1-4 would still be better than they will if we come outright 4th

Tied for 3rd, i.e. the 3rd worst and 4th worst teams, have the same lottery odds which is the average of the #1-3 odds and the #4 odds. The coin flip determines who gets spot #3 (guaranteed no worse than 7th) and spot #4 (guaranteed no worse than 8th).

Right, but my understanding is that those new odds are slightly worse than what the odds would be for outright 3rd, and slightly better than what they would be for outright 4th.
So ending up in 4th after the tiebreaker is still better than ending up outright 4th.

Correct. It is better to be tied for 3rd than outright 4th on two counts-- slightly improved odds and the chance at still being slated at 3rd due to the coin flip (guaranteed no worse than 7th rather than 8th).

And OKC did the Pistons another favor last night by winning another one. Go OKC! Now the Pistons just need to lose out and they're bottom 3.

DetroitSho · Post #331 » by **DetroitSho** » Wed Apr 6, 2022 4:11 pm

I'm old enough to remember when OKC wasn't winning another game and the Pistons' tank was doomed. Ahhh the good times.

Sent from my SM-N975U using RealGM mobile app

Post #332 » by **Cowology** » Wed Apr 6, 2022 4:15 pm

DetroitSho wrote:I'm old enough to remember when OKC wasn't winning another game and the Pistons' tank was doomed. Ahhh the good times.

Sent from my SM-N975U using RealGM mobile app

Seems like only yesterday. Time flies!

Sort · Post #333 » by **Sort** » Wed Apr 6, 2022 4:20 pm

Weaver needs to intervene these last three games and go OKC. There's nothing else to gain at this point other than evaluating end of bench players for next year and landing in the top three. I'd love to see Cade one more time to go head to head with Luka, but really, the season is done in all ways but formalities for the Pistons. Go with it.

Post #334 » by **Snakebites** » Wed Apr 6, 2022 4:56 pm

How irritated would people be if the Lakers won the lottery?

whitehops · Post #335 » by **whitehops** » Wed Apr 6, 2022 5:12 pm

Snakebites wrote:How irritated would people be if the Lakers won the lottery?

they owe their pick to new orleans (protected 11-30) from the anthony davis trade.

Post #336 » by **Snakebites** » Wed Apr 6, 2022 5:16 pm

whitehops wrote:
Snakebites wrote:How irritated would people be if the Lakers won the lottery?

they owe their pick to new orleans (protected 11-30) from the anthony davis trade.

Oh yikes. Good call- I had forgotten that entirely.

Boy, I'm sure they didn't envision that the pick would be this good when they made that trade, but hey, they got a championship out of it.

That's an unusual protection- given their position there's still a chance it doesn't convert to the Pelicans, but it looks like if it's 11-30 it goes to Memphis.

Ouch.

whitehops · Post #337 » by **whitehops** » Wed Apr 6, 2022 5:22 pm

Snakebites wrote:Oh yikes. Good call- I had forgotten that entirely.

Boy, I'm sure they didn't envision that the pick would be this good when they made that trade, but hey, they got a championship out of it.

yeah i don't think they ever imagined they would miss the playoffs this soon.

i guess the only consolation for them is that there isn't a real grade A prospect in this draft?

Post #338 » by **Snakebites** » Wed Apr 6, 2022 5:55 pm

whitehops wrote:
Snakebites wrote:Oh yikes. Good call- I had forgotten that entirely.

Boy, I'm sure they didn't envision that the pick would be this good when they made that trade, but hey, they got a championship out of it.

yeah i don't think they ever imagined they would miss the playoffs this soon.

i guess the only consolation for them is that there isn't a real grade A prospect in this draft?

There's no can't miss prospect, but chances are at least one or two lottery picks are going to be All-NBA level players, and they have no chance at getting any of them.

But yeah, at least they're not going to miss out on the next Lebron James or Anthony Davis this year. At least there's that.

Still, it's gotta sting that the Pelicans reached the play-in and the Lakers didn't, AND the Lakers have to give them their pick if they move up.

No sympathy, mind you. That trade won the Lakers a championship 2 years ago.

flow · Post #339 » by **flow** » Wed Apr 6, 2022 6:03 pm

whitehops wrote:
Snakebites wrote:How irritated would people be if the Lakers won the lottery?

they owe their pick to new orleans (protected 11-30) from the anthony davis trade.

For a team that struggled with the Zion debacle this year, after the debacle of hiring of SVG last year, the Pels are sitting pretty. They're playing improved basketball, will compete in the play-in round, will likely have two early-mid 1sts in the draft, and will likely get Zion back next year.

Post #340 » by **Snakebites** » Wed Apr 6, 2022 6:10 pm

flow wrote:
whitehops wrote:
Snakebites wrote:How irritated would people be if the Lakers won the lottery?

they owe their pick to new orleans (protected 11-30) from the anthony davis trade.

For a team that struggled with the Zion debacle this year, after the debacle of hiring of SVG last year, the Pels are sitting pretty. They're playing improved basketball, will compete in the play-in round, will likely have two early-mid 1sts in the draft, and will likely get Zion back next year.

I actually just took a look at the lottery odds.

Despite their play-in contention until recently, the Lakers are actually currently in the 8th spot in terms of lottery odds.

So the Pelicans will all-but certainly be getting the pick this year. There is a very very small chance that it drops to 11th or 12th (less than one percent) which would cause it to go to Memphis. So I guess Memphis is the only team unhappy about just how hard the Lakers collapsed.

The Pelicans gave up their own pick in the CJ deal (there is an above 80 percent chance that pick goes to Portland this year), but they'll have a pick of greater value coming their way in all likelihood.

Side note: the uncertainty surrounding the NOH pick might be the only reason Jerami isn’t a Blazer now. One can hope- though I’m still skeptical.