RealGM

I really like the development so far with Killian Hayes. He was among the worst players in the league last year before he got hurt. Then he came back and slowly improved. The new defensive rules really help him body guys up with his size at the PG. Before those would all be fouls, but now he has some help against faster players.

He still cant shoot and what worries me is that he is afraid of shooting. His go to move is to drive into the paint, then jump, turn all the way around and throw the ball BACK to someone at the 3-point line.

No Killian No. If you make it past your guy and are within 12ft of the basketball, go all the way and shoot/floater/layup. Killian is a true 'just the tip' fella. Thats enough for him, turns around, throws the ball back out again accomplishing nothing.

Anyways, seems to be improving very slowly. Doesnt have the temper tantrums from last season, he's getting older and more mature.

But that shooting man!

Yes, he's likely the worst starting guard in the league. At least his shooting %s are a bit better this season (even though he's still bottom 102in the league in TS% for players that play at least 20 MPG)... But Bey is also likely the worst starting forward in the league and his TS% is actually slightly worse than Hayes this year.

Stewart is a bottom 3 starting center in the league. So we've got the worst starting guard Hayes... the worst starting forward in Bey and one of the bottom two or three starting centers in Stewart thus far this season. Which is why we're the worst team in the league.

bstein14 wrote:Yes, he's likely the worst starting guard in the league. At least his shooting %s are a bit better this season (even though he's still bottom 102in the league in TS% for players that play at least 20 MPG)... But Bey is also likely the worst starting forward in the league and his TS% is actually slightly worse than Hayes this year.

Stewart is a bottom 3 starting center in the league. So we've got the worst starting guard Hayes... the worst starting forward in Bey and one of the bottom two or three starting centers in Stewart thus far this season. Which is why we're the worst team in the league.

And Grant has the worst body language and facial expressions in the league, so that makes 4 negative starters.

Sent from my SM-N975U using RealGM mobile app

So just to understand according to your chart: Jalen Suggs has a worse true shooting percentage than Killian but is scoring more points. That means that he is just launching a higher volume of poor TS% shot attempts per 100 possessions right? Which would mean that Suggs is hurting his team more than Killian.

I guess they better get rid of Suggs then.... or at least tell the guy not to shoot. Right?

Also. Killian has played 18 games this season.

If you look at November the month of November in his 10 games he had a TS% of .513. In his two games since it's .515
Cade Cunningham's in November was .474. (In December he has been killing it with .603.

The reality is that Killian is getting better. The numbers were abysmal in October, less so in November and they continue to climb in December. You could look at the stats (or even just... I don't know... watch some Pistons games as of late?) and realize that... or try to bury the kid with threads like these I guess...

https://www.google.com/search?q=What+is+a+good+TS%25+for+a+guard

Invictus88 wrote:So just to understand according to your chart: Jalen Suggs has a worse true shooting percentage than Killian but is scoring more points. That means that he is just launching a higher volume of poor TS% shot attempts per 100 possessions right? Which would mean that Suggs is hurting his team more than Killian.

I guess they better get rid of Suggs then.... or at least tell the guy not to shoot. Right?



The reality is that Killian is getting better. The numbers were abysmal in October, less so in November

Suggs and Killian shoot basically the same, its a rounding error. Plenty of Magic fans are worried.

My main issue: Its very difficult to improve on something that you are terrified of doing. Hayes maybe tries once a game to make a floater or a layup in traffic. That is not anywhere near enough. No one is going to improve on something they never do and the once in a while they do try it, it doesnt go well.

Kilian needs to be brave and go for it. This team is extremely bad. Embarrassing really. Now is the time for Killian to go for it and try and dunk on some people. Or at least try a floater.

So yes, Killian needs to learn how to go to the basket and put the ball in, whether thats a floater, a layup, dunks, raising up and quick shots. ANYTHING. Or else he needs to go to the bench. Trying to play with a 6'5" guard that cant score other than a couple 3pters a game where he is wide open isnt going to cut it.

One thing not mentioned, CASEY LIVES FOR 3 POINTERS. You can bet Casey is influencing Killian to kick back out for 3 pointers, probably on him constantly to do so.

You can't mention anything to do with 3 pointers on this team without suspecting Casey has something to do with it. Our team has a "Live by the 3, die by the 3" offense. 11th in 3 attempts and at the bottom of the NBA in percentage. You can bet Casey would never encourage Killian to refrain from kicking out for threes.

DetroitSho wrote:

bstein14 wrote:Yes, he's likely the worst starting guard in the league. At least his shooting %s are a bit better this season (even though he's still bottom 102in the league in TS% for players that play at least 20 MPG)... But Bey is also likely the worst starting forward in the league and his TS% is actually slightly worse than Hayes this year.

Stewart is a bottom 3 starting center in the league. So we've got the worst starting guard Hayes... the worst starting forward in Bey and one of the bottom two or three starting centers in Stewart thus far this season. Which is why we're the worst team in the league.

And Grant has the worst body language and facial expressions in the league, so that makes 4 negative starters.

Sent from my SM-N975U using RealGM mobile app

Five. We’ve got a 6’2” swindler masquerading as a budding star. Plus I heard Garza buys his clothes at JC Penney.

I don't think Killian is afraid. He seems just fine taking open corner threes and if the lane is left open for him, he's shown willingness to go in and throw it up. I think he's a guy who looks to set other folks up first, second, and third, like a classic point guard, and only go for his own shot if that's what the defense is giving them.

Kalamazoo317 wrote:I don't think Killian is afraid. He seems just fine taking open corner threes and if the lane is left open for him, he's shown willingness to go in and throw it up. I think he's a guy who looks to set other folks up first, second, and third, like a classic point guard, and only go for his own shot if that's what the defense is giving them.

But we need every starter to average 20 or else we’ll never be good.

I am absolutely shocked by the revelation that Killian is bad offensively. Shocked.

I am absolutely shocked by the revelation that Killian is decent defensively. Shocked.

dVs33 wrote:

Kalamazoo317 wrote:I don't think Killian is afraid. He seems just fine taking open corner threes and if the lane is left open for him, he's shown willingness to go in and throw it up. I think he's a guy who looks to set other folks up first, second, and third, like a classic point guard, and only go for his own shot if that's what the defense is giving them.

But we need every starter to average 20 or else we’ll never be good.

I think if Killian scored 10 points a game on league average TS% in about 24 minutes per night he would be a fine starter. He's already improved in reducing TOs, and his defense is solid. No one thinks Killian needs to score 20 a night. That's the hope for Cade of course and you already have Grant scoring 20 a night.

Killian just has a long ways to go to be an average efficiency low volume offensive player. He was the worst TS% among players getting 20 minutes a night last year, and he has been bottom 10 to 15 in the league again this year. That said, he started out really bad this season and has been slightly getting better. You can see the improvement is coming from him its just been a slow climb. The really important numbers will be how he looks in Feb, March and April.... as long as he keep trending upwards that is the important part.

Interesting figure. The worst place to be on this graph is arguably the top of the left quadrant. That means you’re inefficient + won’t stop shooting. Mostly young players in this quadrant, too. I don’t think Killian will ever be a 16+ ppg scorer. He just needs to prove he’s respectable from inside and continue being a dog defensively. I wouldn’t have expected to see Saddiq down there coming into the year.

Not to nitpick, but this chart shows SCORING from the lens of efficiency and volume, which isn’t the same as overall offense, especially not for a point guard.

Still, he’s awful offensively. Conventional stats and actually watching the guy make that clear too.

His long range shooting is vastly improved mainly when he catches and shoots off the creation of others but his mid range game is virtually non-existent. He does that thing when he penetrates the middle of the lane and kicks it out time after time and teams are telegraphing it. He needs to gain confidence in that mid range game or he'll never be a viable starter in this league. Still young though so more patience is required.

Generally though, he and Bey are stifling the offense. Those two are the key to the Pistons showing bigger improvements this season and next. With them being anchors on the offense, the Pistons will always struggle to score with any consistency even if Cade becomes the star he's projected to be.

It's obvious he's terrible on offense you don't need a graph for that. The guy is putting up 6ppg on terrible shooting. I'd guess the only reason he's playing is because weaver said so and at least he's trying hard on defense.

I wonder if we drafted Ivey would he start or have Hayes come off the bench?

Sent from my 5087Z using RealGM mobile app

edmunder_prc wrote:

Invictus88 wrote:So just to understand according to your chart: Jalen Suggs has a worse true shooting percentage than Killian but is scoring more points. That means that he is just launching a higher volume of poor TS% shot attempts per 100 possessions right? Which would mean that Suggs is hurting his team more than Killian.

I guess they better get rid of Suggs then.... or at least tell the guy not to shoot. Right?



The reality is that Killian is getting better. The numbers were abysmal in October, less so in November

Suggs and Killian shoot basically the same, its a rounding error. Plenty of Magic fans are worried.

You could have fooled me. Looking at this thread on their board which discusses their grade of him up to this point the overwhelming majority of players say that 20 games is simply too early to make a judgement on; with some saying that they won't say anything definitive until his second year in the league.
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=25&t=2141667

It's funny the contrast between that board and ours in terms of every little thing being a "sky is falling" moment over here.
I also truly believe that you haven't been watching actual Pistons games as of late. Killian has looked a lot more assertive and his shots look good. They still aren't falling (the mid-range floaters you talk about in particular) but they look pretty solid in terms of confidence, etc.

There's also close to zero indication that anything he is doing is having any adverse effect on Cade at all (speaking to your "Trying to play with a 6'5" guard.." comment). Cade has been blowing things up the last 3 games with Killian looking good right alongside him.

Even when Cade wasn't shooting well earlier it was more a matter of Cade just missing good and mostly open shots (which are now falling as expected).

NYPiston wrote:His long range shooting is vastly improved mainly when he catches and shoots off the creation of others but his mid range game is virtually non-existent. He does that thing when he penetrates the middle of the lane and kicks it out time after time and teams are telegraphing it. He needs to gain confidence in that mid range game or he'll never be a viable starter in this league. Still young though so more patience is required.

Generally though, he and Bey are stifling the offense. Those two are the key to the Pistons showing bigger improvements this season and next. With them being anchors on the offense, the Pistons will always struggle to score with any consistency even if Cade becomes the star he's projected to be.

Bey does result in a lot of drives basically ending in poor shot selection after little ball movement. He reminds me a bit of Josh Jackson last year (who I might add isn't doing the same thing this year in limited minutes).

But I think it's a mistake to bring up Bey and lump him in with Killian as an indirect way of solidifying the opinion that Killian is still stifling the offense. It's very likely that wasn't your intention but it reads that way at first glance.

Killian still does pass too much quickly at times; especially on the perimeter where I would like to see him do more with the ball. However, knocking him about the telegraphing thing is misplaced. Killian's turnovers are actually not too much of a problem (1.7 per game); The guy doing all of the telegraphing is actually Cade Cunningham and his 3.8 turnovers per game average.

mattao313 wrote:It's obvious he's terrible on offense you don't need a graph for that. The guy is putting up 6ppg on terrible shooting. I'd guess the only reason he's playing is because weaver said so and at least he's trying hard on defense.

I wonder if we drafted Ivey would he start or have Hayes come off the bench?

Sent from my 5087Z using RealGM mobile app

My guess is he's still playing because he has high potential and has played in 49 NBA games so far. That's generally how it works.

[Feel free to insert one cherry-picked example of an underperforming high draft pick who was traded/sent to the G-league after less than 49 games here.]

Given the most pressing needs on this team at the moment, why would they draft Ivey? Especially considering he's projected in the 5-10 range and my guess is the Pistons will be picking in the top 5. At that point if one of Holmgren, Banchero, Smith or Duren is still on the board you grab them, period.

Manocad wrote:

mattao313 wrote:It's obvious he's terrible on offense you don't need a graph for that. The guy is putting up 6ppg on terrible shooting. I'd guess the only reason he's playing is because weaver said so and at least he's trying hard on defense.

I wonder if we drafted Ivey would he start or have Hayes come off the bench?

Sent from my 5087Z using RealGM mobile app

My guess is he's still playing because he has high potential and has played in 49 NBA games so far. That's generally how it works.

[Feel free to insert one cherry-picked example of an underperforming high draft pick who was traded/sent to the G-league after less than 49 games here.]

Given the most pressing needs on this team at the moment, why would they draft Ivey? Especially considering he's projected in the 5-10 range and my guess is the Pistons will be picking in the top 5. At that point if one of Holmgren, Banchero, Smith or Duren is still on the board you grab them, period.

You absolutely take Ivey over Duren. Have you seen Duren at Memphis? I'd also say even with Cade, Detroit will need another elite onball playmaker. The mocks will be bumping him shortly.