Backcourt mate for Cade

[Kalamazoo317]

Cojo's numbers this year: 8.0 points, 44.5%/41.4% from 3, 2.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.3 blocks

So, no, Cojo's really not basically doing that, but yes, he's shooting better.

Corey Joseph Per 36 12/5/4 on 57ts

Killian last 8 per36 was like 12/6/5 on 50ts

So yes very comparable.



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The contrast, of course, is one more assist and rebound for Killian, more hockey assists, much better defense, way more upside, and slightly worse shooting.

Don't get me wrong, I think Cojo is underrated around here too. He settles the offense and offers a veteran presence that the team has benefitted from, IMO. But I think Killian can and will be a better longterm starter than him.

I also don't mind him earning the minutes. I think just plugging in young guys as starters without making them earn it has hurt us (and Killian!) developmentally in the past. Make them earn it.

[mattao313]

Cojo's numbers this year: 8.0 points, 44.5%/41.4% from 3, 2.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.3 blocks

So, no, Cojo's really not basically doing that, but yes, he's shooting better.

Corey Joseph Per 36 12/5/4 on 57ts

Killian last 8 per36 was like 12/6/5 on 50ts

So yes very comparable.



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The contrast, of course, is one more assist and rebound for Killian, more hockey assists, much better defense, way more upside, and slightly worse shooting.

Don't get me wrong, I think Cojo is underrated around here too. He settles the offense and offers a veteran presence that the team has benefitted from, IMO. But I think Killian can and will be a better longterm starter than him.

I also don't mind him earning the minutes. I think just plugging in young guys as starters without making them earn it has hurt us (and Killian!) developmentally in the past. Make them earn it.

I don't want either as a starter that was my point. Both are bench players so far Joseph as a slightly below average one and Hayes as a bad one.

The argument was Hayes putting up those numbers is good enough to be Cade's backcourt mate it's not imo

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[Manocad]

Yes 12ppg per 36 on trash percentages isn't good well maybe to you. Still would rather have a better player

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You're making a different argument. Mine is that if Killian could sustain 12.0 pts on 43%/33%, 6.2 assists, 5.9 rebounds, 1.7 steals, 0.8 blocks and 2.7 TO's per 36 given where this roster is at right now with Cade, Bey, Bagley, Stew, etc. and where it's expected to go given the draft pick/potential Grant trade/etc. then yes, he'd be a suitable starting guard because he'd be part of a starting lineup projected to put up 80+ PPG. And that works in today's NBA without question.

Your argument is what you want. Of course we all want 5 starters who average at least 18 PPG and 3-4 bench guys who average 10-12 PPG. It's just not realistic.

If you think him putting up those stats are good we may as well just keep Cory Joseph as the starter he's basically doing that already on better shooting.

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I didn't say it was "good." I said that considering what could reasonably expected from the rest of the starting lineup then Hayes' numbers from the last 8 games, assuming he keeps them up, projected over 36 minutes would be good enough. Like I said, if you think there's a reasonable way to field a lineup of five guys all averaging 18+ PPG, have at it. That's what you WANT, not what you can expect to get nor what is really required to win a championship.

[El Chivo]

Brogdon would fit the mold, but he's always injured. A big combo guard with secondary ball handler skills and a plus shooter.

[Kalamazoo317]

12-6-5 and high level defense isn't good enough to start on a championship level team? I mean, it's not like we're talking about him being the first or even third option on offense here. There's only so much ball to go around. If you have all-stars are every position, the team's probably not going to gel very well.

How many teams in recent history have won the championship with all five of their starters posting better numbers than that?

[breezypeezy]

I think the Sun's top 8 guys or so would give you per 36 numbers as good or better.
They are exceptionally well built these last 2 seasons.

[Pharaoh]

I think the Sun's top 8 guys or so would give you per 36 numbers as good or better.
They are exceptionally well built these last 2 seasons.

James Jones has done a great job adding to what they already had.

Weaver chose to start from scratch so we're likely 4 years behind them.

Cade, Hayes, Diallo...need another playmaking guard that hopefully can shoot the 3 extremely well

Bey, Livers, Grant...need another wing player that is more of a playmaker and shooter

Bags, Stewart...need a rim running, shotblocking big man that can alter shots at the rim

We're building slowly and that's ok.

There's no need to solve everything right here, right now!

Rushing this will kill us for years on end - again!

We have time, cap space and our pick thanks to the protections on the lone first we dealt.

2 more off-seasons and even I will start being more demanding and expectations

But right now I'm cooling all jets cause I want a decade of good ****, not a year or 2. We have all suffered enough

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[Manocad]

I think the Sun's top 8 guys or so would give you per 36 numbers as good or better.
They are exceptionally well built these last 2 seasons.

James Jones has done a great job adding to what they already had.

Weaver chose to start from scratch so we're likely 4 years behind them.

Cade, Hayes, Diallo...need another playmaking guard that hopefully can shoot the 3 extremely well

Bey, Livers, Grant...need another wing player that is more of a playmaker and shooter

Bags, Stewart...need a rim running, shotblocking big man that can alter shots at the rim

We're building slowly and that's ok.

There's no need to solve everything right here, right now!

Rushing this will kill us for years on end - again!

We have time, cap space and our pick thanks to the protections on the lone first we dealt.

2 more off-seasons and even I will start being more demanding and expectations

But right now I'm cooling all jets cause I want a decade of good ****, not a year or 2. We have all suffered enough

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Yeah, it seems like some people believe that if you put the right combination of player stats together you're automatically in the finals and playing for a championship and it simply doesn't work that way. That overlooks the time required for them to grow together as a unit, i.e. the whole is greater than the sum of the parts thing. Some people here believe it's always a sum of the parts equation and it's just not.

[bstein14]

Hayes doesn't fit well with Cade at all. Hayes is much more effective with the bench unit and the ball in his hands.

Hayes only fits well with Cade if he can sit in the corner and hit open 3s at a decent (35+%) rate... if not he should play with the bench unit.

I've mentioned a few times that Hayes is young enough that if he puts the work in to get better, even though he had a really poor start to his career and has gotten way more of a chance than 99% of guys coming into the league ever will, he might be a slow climb into a decent starter.

21-22: 20 years old = Bottom 5 backup PG
22-23: 21 years old = Slightly below average backup PG
23-24: 22 years old = Average backup PG
24-25: 23 years old = Above average backup PG
25-26: 24 years old = Below average starting PG
26-27: 25 years old = About average starting PG

It's tough to imagine it taking 5 more years to get there, but the truth is with him still being just 20 years old, if he's willing to put in the work, this is very much a possible career trajectory for Hayes. A lot of guys really hit their best "prime" years in the league at 25/26/27/28 so its possible we're just going to see a slow progression from Hayes, whether its in Detroit or elsewhere, towards becoming a starting PG in this league eventually.

[Pharaoh]

I think the Sun's top 8 guys or so would give you per 36 numbers as good or better.
They are exceptionally well built these last 2 seasons.

James Jones has done a great job adding to what they already had.

Weaver chose to start from scratch so we're likely 4 years behind them.

Cade, Hayes, Diallo...need another playmaking guard that hopefully can shoot the 3 extremely well

Bey, Livers, Grant...need another wing player that is more of a playmaker and shooter

Bags, Stewart...need a rim running, shotblocking big man that can alter shots at the rim

We're building slowly and that's ok.

There's no need to solve everything right here, right now!

Rushing this will kill us for years on end - again!

We have time, cap space and our pick thanks to the protections on the lone first we dealt.

2 more off-seasons and even I will start being more demanding and expectations

But right now I'm cooling all jets cause I want a decade of good ****, not a year or 2. We have all suffered enough

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Yeah, it seems like some people believe that if you put the right combination of player stats together you're automatically in the finals and playing for a championship and it simply doesn't work that way. That overlooks the time required for them to grow together as a unit, i.e. the whole is greater than the sum of the parts thing. Some people here believe it's always a sum of the parts equation and it's just not.

Quality teams just aren't built that way where you're flipping dudes all the time hoping to catch lightning in a bottle.

Even the Heatles lost their first year together ffs!

This idea you can just put it all together in a season or 2 blows my mind given the experience so many posters here have - you can't be a fan for near 20 years and honestly have that opinion, can you?

Well we obviously don't but some do and that blows my mind tbh.

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[Pharaoh]

Hayes doesn't fit well with Cade at all. Hayes is much more effective with the bench unit and the ball in his hands.

Hayes only fits well with Cade if he can sit in the corner and hit open 3s at a decent (35+%) rate... if not he should play with the bench unit.

I've mentioned a few times that Hayes is young enough that if he puts the work in to get better, even though he had a really poor start to his career and has gotten way more of a chance than 99% of guys coming into the league ever will, he might be a slow climb into a decent starter.

21-22: 20 years old = Bottom 5 backup PG
22-23: 21 years old = Slightly below average backup PG
23-24: 22 years old = Average backup PG
24-25: 23 years old = Above average backup PG
25-26: 24 years old = Below average starting PG
26-27: 25 years old = About average starting PG

It's tough to imagine it taking 5 more years to get there, but the truth is with him still being just 20 years old, if he's willing to put in the work, this is very much a possible career trajectory for Hayes. A lot of guys really hit their best "prime" years in the league at 25/26/27/28 so its possible we're just going to see a slow progression from Hayes, whether its in Detroit or elsewhere, towards becoming a starting PG in this league eventually.

Your position on Hayes is noted and has been since the 26 game mark, you questioning whether we'd pick up his rookie options and all that.

Kid already does a lot of good things on the floor that you might not notice, plays good D, shares the ball, doesn't look to put himself above the team and all that.

You wrote him off after 30 games so I'm yeah nah we good bro.

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[Manocad]

Hayes doesn't fit well with Cade at all. Hayes is much more effective with the bench unit and the ball in his hands.

Hayes only fits well with Cade if he can sit in the corner and hit open 3s at a decent (35+%) rate... if not he should play with the bench unit.

I've mentioned a few times that Hayes is young enough that if he puts the work in to get better, even though he had a really poor start to his career and has gotten way more of a chance than 99% of guys coming into the league ever will, he might be a slow climb into a decent starter.

21-22: 20 years old = Bottom 5 backup PG
22-23: 21 years old = Slightly below average backup PG
23-24: 22 years old = Average backup PG
24-25: 23 years old = Above average backup PG
25-26: 24 years old = Below average starting PG
26-27: 25 years old = About average starting PG

It's tough to imagine it taking 5 more years to get there, but the truth is with him still being just 20 years old, if he's willing to put in the work, this is very much a possible career trajectory for Hayes. A lot of guys really hit their best "prime" years in the league at 25/26/27/28 so its possible we're just going to see a slow progression from Hayes, whether its in Detroit or elsewhere, towards becoming a starting PG in this league eventually.

Your position on Hayes is noted and has been since the 26 game mark, you questioning whether we'd pick up his rookie options and all that.

Kid already does a lot of good things on the floor that you might not notice, plays good D, shares the ball, doesn't look to put himself above the team and all that.

You wrote him off after 30 games so I'm yeah nah we good bro.

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Bingo. The idea that anyone can project Hayes' career trajectory for the next five years and thus determine that he will never be good enough to start on THIS team, with THIS roster, and be productive is quite presumptuous. He has already clearly showed that he has starting-level ability; he just needs to be consistent in demonstrating it.

[Pharaoh]

Hayes doesn't fit well with Cade at all. Hayes is much more effective with the bench unit and the ball in his hands.

Hayes only fits well with Cade if he can sit in the corner and hit open 3s at a decent (35+%) rate... if not he should play with the bench unit.

I've mentioned a few times that Hayes is young enough that if he puts the work in to get better, even though he had a really poor start to his career and has gotten way more of a chance than 99% of guys coming into the league ever will, he might be a slow climb into a decent starter.

21-22: 20 years old = Bottom 5 backup PG
22-23: 21 years old = Slightly below average backup PG
23-24: 22 years old = Average backup PG
24-25: 23 years old = Above average backup PG
25-26: 24 years old = Below average starting PG
26-27: 25 years old = About average starting PG

It's tough to imagine it taking 5 more years to get there, but the truth is with him still being just 20 years old, if he's willing to put in the work, this is very much a possible career trajectory for Hayes. A lot of guys really hit their best "prime" years in the league at 25/26/27/28 so its possible we're just going to see a slow progression from Hayes, whether its in Detroit or elsewhere, towards becoming a starting PG in this league eventually.

Your position on Hayes is noted and has been since the 26 game mark, you questioning whether we'd pick up his rookie options and all that.

Kid already does a lot of good things on the floor that you might not notice, plays good D, shares the ball, doesn't look to put himself above the team and all that.

You wrote him off after 30 games so I'm yeah nah we good bro.

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Bingo. The idea that anyone can project Hayes' career trajectory for the next five years and thus determine that he will never be good enough to start on THIS team, with THIS roster, and be productive is quite presumptuous. He has already clearly showed that he has starting-level ability; he just needs to be consistent in demonstrating it.

Careful bro they'll all put you on their foe list.

Then again 2 years later I'm right so

Anyone attempting to judge a player after 30 games makes me laugh.

Give the kid - any kid - 3 full seasons and then we can all pass judgement.

Ffs we got people hyping up Luke Kennard in here! And these are hard core, die hard fans!

What? For real man this is some crazy times

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[Manocad]

Your position on Hayes is noted and has been since the 26 game mark, you questioning whether we'd pick up his rookie options and all that.

Kid already does a lot of good things on the floor that you might not notice, plays good D, shares the ball, doesn't look to put himself above the team and all that.

You wrote him off after 30 games so I'm yeah nah we good bro.

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Bingo. The idea that anyone can project Hayes' career trajectory for the next five years and thus determine that he will never be good enough to start on THIS team, with THIS roster, and be productive is quite presumptuous. He has already clearly showed that he has starting-level ability; he just needs to be consistent in demonstrating it.

Careful bro they'll all put you on their foe list.

Then again 2 years later I'm right so

Anyone attempting to judge a player after 30 games makes me laugh.

Give the kid - any kid - 3 full seasons and then we can all pass judgement.

Ffs we got people hyping up Luke Kennard in here! And these are hard core, die hard fans!

What? For real man this is some crazy times

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And people need to use it more often. It's a forum where of course people post ideas that are debated but when I do it, I'm "arguing for the sake of arguing," like I shouldn't be challenging anyone's assumptions because it's disrespectful...in a forum where we ALL challenge the assumptions/arguments of others. Rather than getting your panties in a twist and throwing a fit, just use the foe list. It's not rocket science. Or just don't make a crappy argument--especially when you state your assumption/opinion as fact--and I won't respond to you. Pretty simple.

[Kalamazoo317]

I think the Sun's top 8 guys or so would give you per 36 numbers as good or better.
They are exceptionally well built these last 2 seasons.

Crowder's basically got the same points and rebounds and worse assist numbers per 36. Bridges basically scores two more points per 36, but has worse rebound and assist numbers. That stat line per 36 for Killian is a perfectly reasonable stat line for a starter on a championship team.

[Kalamazoo317]

Hayes doesn't fit well with Cade at all. Hayes is much more effective with the bench unit and the ball in his hands.

Totally disagree with this. He's just more effective when there's a rim running big man in the rotation. I think Beefstew in there with Killian is the bigger issue, especially when neither of them is spacing the floor.

That said, Killian has been taking (and making) 3's more often, and not just in the corner.

I don't think Cade at all needs to be ball-dominant to be effective. He's great mixing up whether he's on ball or off. This is a skill of his and he *should* be paired with another effective ball handler. That certainly can be Killian, especially if he's being aggressive about taking shots when they're there for him. It's when he's passive and passes up open shots that he messes up the flow of the offense, but that's true regardless of who's on the floor with him.

Finally, all of this overlooks the defensive side of things, where the Cade/Killian combination is frankly pretty awesome.

[bstein14]

Your position on Hayes is noted and has been since the 26 game mark, you questioning whether we'd pick up his rookie options and all that.

Kid already does a lot of good things on the floor that you might not notice, plays good D, shares the ball, doesn't look to put himself above the team and all that.

You wrote him off after 30 games so I'm yeah nah we good bro.

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Bingo. The idea that anyone can project Hayes' career trajectory for the next five years and thus determine that he will never be good enough to start on THIS team, with THIS roster, and be productive is quite presumptuous. He has already clearly showed that he has starting-level ability; he just needs to be consistent in demonstrating it.

Careful bro they'll all put you on their foe list.

Then again 2 years later I'm right so

Anyone attempting to judge a player after 30 games makes me laugh.

Give the kid - any kid - 3 full seasons and then we can all pass judgement.

Ffs we got people hyping up Luke Kennard in here! And these are hard core, die hard fans!

What? For real man this is some crazy times

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Hayes has 100% not shown that he is starting level ability on a good team.

#1. He can't start next to Cade if we keep the ball in Cade's hands unless he can start hitting some open jump shots.

#2. Even if he plays off the bench and does well handling the ball and defensively, he's never going to be a good backup PG until he has the offensive skillset to run a pick and role that allows him to make a decent % of pull up jumpers when the defender cheats under the screener. Or he needs to get much better at finishing around the rim.

He still has a long ways to go to just being an average backup PG in this league.

I'm not predicting Killian's career trajectory. I'm just saying he's young enough that even though he's far away right now if he keeps improving each year its possible he works himself into being a starter over the course of the next few years. Of course the best case scenario for us is that he takes a big jump forward over this next offseason but as we saw with all four of our rookies last season that jump doesn't always happen and is far from guaranteed at any point.

This season again, Hayes he was awful. Worst TS% in the league out of regular rotation players. But we did see some improvements from him as well, especially when it comes to turning the ball over less. But its not like we saw great improvements from Hayes in the season splits that makes me think he's improved greatly over the course of this season.

I mean in February he played in 12 games at 21.2 MPG, shot 11% from three, had a +/- of -18.0 so the team was just getting wrecked as a bench unit each night while he played those 21.2 MPG and he averaged 5.3 PPG with a horrid TS% of .439.... against mostly bench competition. So its not like a Cade situation where we see the improvements throughout the course of the season that really gets you excited for his play next year.

As it stands right now, if he doesn't develop a 3 point shot he shouldn't be getting much time with Cade unless the plan is to take the ball out of Cade's hands on offense.

[Cowology]

In a vacuum we'd all probably agree that the ideal pairing for Cade involves a player who is a good shooter. It's certainly not crazy to think that's of high value for a guy who lives in the paint. It's common sense. Shooters open up driving lanes and provide outlets that punish the D for collapsing. Drive & kick. Basic stuff.

Hayes is a terrible shooter. This isn't subjective. It's fact. He's not just soft or weak. By the numbers he has been historically bad. There is a reason that CoJo is still starting and it's not because of his defense, rebounding or playmaking ability. It's because we are already the worst 3pt shooting team in the league and Hayes inability to shoot is a significant liability in the starting lineup.

It's also true that's not all Hayes fault. We have deficiencies up & down the roster that compound & exacerbate each other. That said, we are not currently in a position to take Stewart off the floor and that severely limits our options. It's certainly possible that as we upgrade various positions that Hayes lack of shooting becomes less of a problem. For example, him and Olynyk work well together because KO provides from the power position what Hayes is lacking in the backcourt.

I'm not here to argue about whether Hayes *could* start on a championship team. He'd probably look pretty good starting next to somebody like Booker, provided there is enough other shooting in that lineup. But that doesn't mean he's a good fit next to Cade.

I'm not a Hayes hater. I got nothing against him and am happy to see him working hard & improving. He's certainly improved his ability to finish while driving left and I was happy to see him be so aggressive the other night. But it's not presumptuous to say his 3pt shooting still needs a lot of work when he hasn't really shown much improvement. He's shooting 26.1% on the year. He shot 27.4% pre-All Star break and is shooting 22.5% post-All Star break. He was 26.9% in all of March. He actually took MORE 3pt attempts per game in October, November, December & January, so any narrative about him taking more shots is also a bit skewed. It's more like he was simply down in February as his minutes waned and he shot a paltry 11.1% from deep and then bounced back to previous levels in March. These are facts. They are indisputable.

That doesn't mean we give up on him or write him off. We can both acknowledge how terrible he's been in this regard AND agree he needs more time. We can recognize his defense, rebounding & playmaking AND the impact of his inability to shoot at the same time. And it's arguably more presumptuous to think he will improve than won't (in this specific area), considering his poor ability is proven while there is no real evidence to suggest growth. Again, he actually shot better at the START of the season. These are all verifiable facts. Not opinion.

If we are able to upgrade perimeter shooting at other positions, then this all becomes much less of a issue. If we aren't forced to play Stewart and/or get more consistency from the SF spot then Hayes becomes less of a liability. And yes, Hayes *could* improve. But let's not pretend like his current lack of shooting and lack of improvement in that area isn't a significant concern as it pertains to his fit alongside Cade. That's just wishful thinking. And let's not pretend like he's made some huge jump in the past few games when the numbers don't actually bear that out.

[Manocad]

I'm not predicting Killian's career trajectory.

21-22: 20 years old = Bottom 5 backup PG
22-23: 21 years old = Slightly below average backup PG
23-24: 22 years old = Average backup PG
24-25: 23 years old = Above average backup PG
25-26: 24 years old = Below average starting PG
26-27: 25 years old = About average starting PG

It's tough to imagine it taking 5 more years to get there, but the truth is with him still being just 20 years old, if he's willing to put in the work, this is very much a possible career trajectory for Hayes. A lot of guys really hit their best "prime" years in the league at 25/26/27/28 so its possible we're just going to see a slow progression from Hayes, whether its in Detroit or elsewhere, towards becoming a starting PG in this league eventually.

Mmm hmmm. So saying that if he puts in the work he MIGHT be an "About average starting PG" in Year 6 of his career...but you're not predicting his career trajectory.

You 100% have no way whatsoever to logically predict where a player will be five years down the road. Just say you don't like him and leave it at that.

[Manocad]

12-6-5 and high level defense isn't good enough to start on a championship level team? I mean, it's not like we're talking about him being the first or even third option on offense here. There's only so much ball to go around. If you have all-stars are every position, the team's probably not going to gel very well.

How many teams in recent history have won the championship with all five of their starters posting better numbers than that?

This is all my point was. Only one person actually took it at face value and argued against it, and that was only to say "I want a better player than those numbers." 12/6/5 on 43%/33% is good enough to start at PG on a high level team when you've got a 20+ PPG PG/SG/SF primary ballhandler in Cade, a 3 point shooter like Bey who easily projects to 18+ PPG if he just improves his shooting/shot selection, a 20+ PPG forward in Grant or his replacement, and what hopefully will be a 12/10 center (or better) with the some good D. That's 84 or so points from your starting lineup which definitely works, and to claim that a player like Hayes can't fit next to Cade because his 3PT % is only 33% vs 40+% has no mathematical logic. It's an argument for the sake of arguing.

I threw the caveat out there of "IF Hayes can keep up these numbers..." but that's how it works here. People roll right past it to make their own argument to suit their narrative.