Bill Simmons Trade Idea: Zion for Bey, Hayes, First

[Manocad]

Zion is super risky but I don't think some people understand how special of a player he is.

I don't think some people understand what risk means.

This can only be looked at as an overall value proposition, not a "what if Zion stays healthy for the rest of his career" proposition. He's not a special player if he's not playing. Oh, and still getting paid to boot. You know what the best indicator of Zion's overall value is? What it's been, not what it could be if...

Put it this way...would you play one round of Russian roulette for $30 million if you make it out alive? Maybe. Now, would you play it with 5 rounds in the cylinders? That's what I'd look at Zion as.

I said in my post in this thread that I wouldn't do the deal, but it's tempting and worth considering, because of how good Zion is. A health and motivated Zion + an improved Cade could be the start of a dynasty.

And I’m arguing that it’s not tempting and worth considering because of how little Zion has been able to stay on the court.

[bjones521]

Id do this in a heart beat. Dont think you realize how unstoppable Zion is when playing. You have to take the chance on this.

[tmorgan]

Questions:

1) Are we one nearly unstoppable driving force away from being a real contender?
2) Are we at all sure Zion would have any intention of re-signing here?
3) is there a good reason to believe Zion will be able to play 75%+ of the time going forward, given his issues?

No. No. And no.

We aren’t ready for this kind of acquisition, even if Zion gets his isht together right away. Him minus Bey and our top pick (essentially the deal, given the current state of Hayes) sounds better, yeah, but there’s a dollars issue and a window issue for convincing TWO young stars to stay. Cade-Diallo-Grant-Zion-Stewart is in no way a championship threat for now, and is pretty much capped out very soon.

Hell no.

[Manocad]

Id do this in a heart beat. Dont think you realize how unstoppable Zion is when playing. You have to take the chance on this.

Don't think you realize how little he plays. You don't have to take that chance now. You take that chance when you believe Zion is the very last piece you need to win a championship and this team isn't there yet. Make this trade and Zion can't keep himself on the floor and then the team development goes BACKWARDS. Not worth it; this team has come too far (and still has a ways to go) to risk going backwards.

[bstein14]

To me Zion isn't a last piece to a championship puzzle type guy at all at this point. If you have everything else together he isn't the kind of piece you take a risk on. That's a Dame Lilliard, or Donovan Mitchell, etc.

Zion is the type of guy you take a risk on if you're in the position of Detroit, OKC, Orlando, etc. A team with one young piece that wants to get another to pair.

But the reality is, Zion doesn't make sense for any team unless he wants to be there... from the sounds of it that might only be NY.

[Manocad]

To me Zion isn't a last piece to a championship puzzle type guy at all at this point. If you have everything else together he isn't the kind of piece you take a risk on. That's a Dame Lilliard, or Donovan Mitchell, etc.

Zion is the type of guy you take a risk on if you're in the position of Detroit, OKC, Orlando, etc. A team with one young piece that wants to get another to pair.

But the reality is, Zion doesn't make sense for any team unless he wants to be there... from the sounds of it that might only be NY.

To me that logic is absolutely nuts.
You don't take that big a risk while you're still building and counting on him to be a second cornerstone piece--meaning you're going to give him a contract that's representative of such--because if it doesn't pan out you're f***ed and starting all over. The reason he IS such a big risk is WHY you'd only take that risk once you've got everything else together and need that final piece to get over the top. Then if he stays hurt and doesn't play you've still got everything else together. Assuming you don't take him on at a crippling contract, obviously.

[Jsindto]

Hey guys. Been an off and on again lurker, but decided to get into the forum.

Like most here, I personally think giving up what the proposed trade was is too much given the uncertainty of Zion.

Having said that, if the Pistons land the #1 pick, and for this exercise say that Zion would be good with staying with Detroit at least through his rookie max extension, would you trade that pick straight up for Zion?

I think I personally would gamble on that. You're obviously taking a gamble that he never is healthy again, but if he is and he's more Embiid than he is Oden with his big man injuries, you have a top 10 NBA caliber player. And outside of Chet, nobody that you'd be taking at #1 has that type of potential. So you're gambling that you lose a Chet/Paolo/Jabari for nothing if he never recovers, but you're getting the potential of Zion which is greater than anything in this draft. And without giving up any of the other assets in Bey/Hayes/pick swap next year.

[Manocad]

Hey guys. Been an off and on again lurker, but decided to get into the forum.

Like most here, I personally think giving up what the proposed trade was is too much given the uncertainty of Zion.

Having said that, if the Pistons land the #1 pick, and for this exercise say that Zion would be good with staying with Detroit at least through his rookie max extension, would you trade that pick straight up for Zion?

I think I personally would gamble on that. You're obviously taking a gamble that he never is healthy again, but if he is and he's more Embiid than he is Oden with his big man injuries, you have a top 10 NBA caliber player. And outside of Chet, nobody that you'd be taking at #1 has that type of potential. So you're gambling that you lose a Chet/Paolo/Jabari for nothing if he never recovers, but you're getting the potential of Zion which is greater than anything in this draft. And without giving up any of the other assets in Bey/Hayes/pick swap next year.

Nope. I look at Zion as being more likely to continue to struggle with health issues than not, meaning he'll more likely be not playing than playing. And regardless of what a player can do when he's playing, his value is zero when he's not.

This to me is another "Ooh! Shiny new toy on the shelf! Buy it for me now!" thing. The Pistons are on a good path. Pretend Zion never existed; would anyone be saying "Now is the time to find a risky superstar and go after him"? That's Blake Griffin Part 2 logic.

[tmorgan]

Hey guys. Been an off and on again lurker, but decided to get into the forum.

Like most here, I personally think giving up what the proposed trade was is too much given the uncertainty of Zion.

Having said that, if the Pistons land the #1 pick, and for this exercise say that Zion would be good with staying with Detroit at least through his rookie max extension, would you trade that pick straight up for Zion?

I think I personally would gamble on that. You're obviously taking a gamble that he never is healthy again, but if he is and he's more Embiid than he is Oden with his big man injuries, you have a top 10 NBA caliber player. And outside of Chet, nobody that you'd be taking at #1 has that type of potential. So you're gambling that you lose a Chet/Paolo/Jabari for nothing if he never recovers, but you're getting the potential of Zion which is greater than anything in this draft. And without giving up any of the other assets in Bey/Hayes/pick swap next year.

Welcome.

Yes, Zion is likely more talented than anyone in this draft (tho I do think Sharpe is a supreme talent if you have patience), so from that perspective, it’s a win for the #1 pick. But the money issue is the problem. Zion is a year away from getting PAID, and the Pistons are more than a year away from contending. Is this a proper plan, use most of our available resources for a guy with injury and weight control issues? That’s a big risk and a big reward, if he wants to stay and can get healthy. Too many ifs for me.

[Jsindto]

Hey guys. Been an off and on again lurker, but decided to get into the forum.

Like most here, I personally think giving up what the proposed trade was is too much given the uncertainty of Zion.

Having said that, if the Pistons land the #1 pick, and for this exercise say that Zion would be good with staying with Detroit at least through his rookie max extension, would you trade that pick straight up for Zion?

I think I personally would gamble on that. You're obviously taking a gamble that he never is healthy again, but if he is and he's more Embiid than he is Oden with his big man injuries, you have a top 10 NBA caliber player. And outside of Chet, nobody that you'd be taking at #1 has that type of potential. So you're gambling that you lose a Chet/Paolo/Jabari for nothing if he never recovers, but you're getting the potential of Zion which is greater than anything in this draft. And without giving up any of the other assets in Bey/Hayes/pick swap next year.

Nope. I look at Zion as being more likely to continue to struggle with health issues than not, meaning he'll more likely be not playing than playing. And regardless of what a player can do when he's playing, his value is zero when he's not.

This to me is another "Ooh! Shiny new toy on the shelf! Buy it for me now!" thing. The Pistons are on a good path. Pretend Zion never existed; would anyone be saying "Now is the time to find a risky superstar and go after him"? That's Blake Griffin Part 2 logic.

That definitely is the calculus. If the doctors were able to examine him before the trade instead of after the trade, I'd definitely feel much better about it (you can always void the trade if you don't like what you see I suppose, but that can be messy). It's a fair opinion to be cautious with big man injuries. Embiid almost feels like a mini miracle that he's fairly unencumbered with his early injuries.

For me, it's not "shiny new toy," it's more "Zion for Chet is highway robbery if he is able to play relatively healthy through his rookie extension contract." But it's fair to be so uncomfortable/uncertain that it's just not worth the risk.

[bstein14]

I think there are some people here that wouldn't trade Hayes + the 4th pick in this draft fro Zion. Even if Bey was left out of the trade and we knew we weren't getting a top 3 pick this draft.

[Jsindto]

Hey guys. Been an off and on again lurker, but decided to get into the forum.

Like most here, I personally think giving up what the proposed trade was is too much given the uncertainty of Zion.

Having said that, if the Pistons land the #1 pick, and for this exercise say that Zion would be good with staying with Detroit at least through his rookie max extension, would you trade that pick straight up for Zion?

I think I personally would gamble on that. You're obviously taking a gamble that he never is healthy again, but if he is and he's more Embiid than he is Oden with his big man injuries, you have a top 10 NBA caliber player. And outside of Chet, nobody that you'd be taking at #1 has that type of potential. So you're gambling that you lose a Chet/Paolo/Jabari for nothing if he never recovers, but you're getting the potential of Zion which is greater than anything in this draft. And without giving up any of the other assets in Bey/Hayes/pick swap next year.

Welcome.

Yes, Zion is likely more talented than anyone in this draft (tho I do think Sharpe is a supreme talent if you have patience), so from that perspective, it’s a win for the #1 pick. But the money issue is the problem. Zion is a year away from getting PAID, and the Pistons are more than a year away from contending. Is this a proper plan, use most of our available resources for a guy with injury and weight control issues? That’s a big risk and a big reward, if he wants to stay and can get healthy. Too many ifs for me.

Agreed on Sharpe as potential top 10 player material. I didn't include him though because 1) I don't see any chance of him being in #1 conversation, and 2) his uncertainty level makes him in a class separate from Chet IMO in terms of the vision of him potentially being a top 10 caliber player.

I hear what you're saying, but if you're not paying Zion $30M (in this hypothetical) beginning with the 2023-2024 season, you're paying somebody that, or someone a large chunk of money. It's not like the MLB where if you're not ready you can have a low payroll, and then go gangbusters when you're ready to. Obviously you can go safe with short term contracts before truly going for it a few more years down the road, but with Cade I expect them to be in the playoffs starting with that 2023-2024 season. So I don't view paying Zion $30M beginning that year as a negative, with the (very massive) caveat that he is healthy enough to play.

Like I said though, completely fair to be scared away due to the injuries. I'd gamble for it since it's the one asset and not the 3+ assets that the original trade was for. But it definitely can blow up in your face.

[Snakebites]

Hey guys. Been an off and on again lurker, but decided to get into the forum.

Like most here, I personally think giving up what the proposed trade was is too much given the uncertainty of Zion.

Having said that, if the Pistons land the #1 pick, and for this exercise say that Zion would be good with staying with Detroit at least through his rookie max extension, would you trade that pick straight up for Zion?

I think I personally would gamble on that. You're obviously taking a gamble that he never is healthy again, but if he is and he's more Embiid than he is Oden with his big man injuries, you have a top 10 NBA caliber player. And outside of Chet, nobody that you'd be taking at #1 has that type of potential. So you're gambling that you lose a Chet/Paolo/Jabari for nothing if he never recovers, but you're getting the potential of Zion which is greater than anything in this draft. And without giving up any of the other assets in Bey/Hayes/pick swap next year.

For me personally removing Bey/Hayes doesn’t move the needle as much, especially if we’re talking about the first pick. The pick is the REAL value here.

Hayes doesn’t really carry much value. Bey does have some value, but the real sacrifice here is the pick, and that’s not worth the risk.

[kierkegaard]

The one point not factored into this discussion, at least not directly, is this. How many paths are realistically available to you for building a championship team? The more there are, the less you should route your rebuild through a maximally risky asset like Zion. The fewer there are, the more reasonable it might be to take the Zion rebuild route.

At one extreme, for example, if Zion is the only option available for a successful rebuild, you of course do it.

I personally think, and imagine Weaver also thinks, that there are just too many alternative rebuild paths available to lock the rebuild into Zion.

At the core is the question of how you assess (dare I say quantify) the Zion risk. It wouldn't be a strict quantity, however, since the Zion-risk for any particular team will depend the number of alternatives available to them. The higher the number of realistic alternatives, the higher the risk.

This is probably a generalization of what Manocad and others have been arguing.

[DBC10]

Hey guys. Been an off and on again lurker, but decided to get into the forum.

Like most here, I personally think giving up what the proposed trade was is too much given the uncertainty of Zion.

Having said that, if the Pistons land the #1 pick, and for this exercise say that Zion would be good with staying with Detroit at least through his rookie max extension, would you trade that pick straight up for Zion?

I think I personally would gamble on that. You're obviously taking a gamble that he never is healthy again, but if he is and he's more Embiid than he is Oden with his big man injuries, you have a top 10 NBA caliber player. And outside of Chet, nobody that you'd be taking at #1 has that type of potential. So you're gambling that you lose a Chet/Paolo/Jabari for nothing if he never recovers, but you're getting the potential of Zion which is greater than anything in this draft. And without giving up any of the other assets in Bey/Hayes/pick swap next year.

For me personally removing Bey/Hayes doesn’t move the needle as much, especially if we’re talking about the first pick. The pick is the REAL value here.

Hayes doesn’t really carry much value. Bey does have some value, but the real sacrifice here is the pick, and that’s not worth the risk.

Yep, this (the pick) is the only hang up with me with all the hoopla on risk and injury history. Really, his weight is the main issue, his injury history really isn't any fatalistic thus far

Losing out on the pick should this hypothetical trade is made is huge after how far this franchise endured yet another predictable down season. If the reward for the down season was just an out of shape Zion, then no it's not worth it on a one to one comparison

[tmorgan]

And I think there are a lot of avenues available to the Pistons.

I see future (end of rookie deal) Cade as the best leader under 30 in the league. He’s that exceptional in that regard. He’ll also likely be a top 10 scorer, above average playmaker, and above average defender. He has holes in his game right now, but they all seem fixable with additional experience and hard work.

That kind of young guy attracts talent. We’ll get more opportunities than we’re used to to sign good or even great players… as long as Weaver and company keep the franchise trending upward. Smart signings, smart trades, no massive blunders. Mistakes here and there will inevitably happen, and we’ve already seen some, but they’ve been pretty minor, at least to me. Acquiring Zion instead of Chet or Sharpe or whomever you prefer has the potential to be a massive, massive blunder. It’s just not necessary.

[Scottgaf]

any move like this is Blake Griffen all over again. stop hitting the reset button, and stay with the plan moving forward.

[Southern Piston]

What is Saddiq Beys trade value, is it better than Jerami Grants, could we throw the two together and get something. Is Livers that far behind, than you got Diallo. The difference to me is every ten to 15 games Bey is gonna be red hot and give u 35+ and carry you, and he also seems to make big shots. But Jerami Grant at the three is much closer to an elite three than he is a 4.
Today I’ve been pondering a starting lineup of Cunningham, Oladipo, Grant, Holmgren, and Stewart

Hayes,Diallo,Bagley, Livers.

I don’t think Bey wants do come off the bench. Who could we combine snd what could we get for it?

[bstein14]

any move like this is Blake Griffen all over again. stop hitting the reset button, and stay with the plan moving forward.

Except Zion is still just 21 years old. He's literally over a year younger than Bey.

[Invictus88]

any move like this is Blake Griffen all over again. stop hitting the reset button, and stay with the plan moving forward.

Except Zion is still just 21 years old.

Except he's played 85 games over 3 seasons so far. He has a frame / weight issues that historically lead to injuries / a shortened prime / career. He likely doesn't even want to be in Detroit.

That's actually 3 for 3 in parallels to Blake Griffin when he arrived in Detroit. So it's actually a pretty solid comparison.

Oh: and both did/would require a massive salary commitment that instantly becomes an albatross in the event the predictable actually occurs. So that's 4 for 4.