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Would you make this trade for Duncan Robinson?

He's fallen out of the playoff rotation and has 4 years and $74.5 million left on his contract that he'll be 28, 29, 30, and 31 for. He struggled from three this year after being elite in previous years with the Heat, and he's a below average defender.

Miami is going to be up against a big luxury tax bill with Herro likely commanding a Max salary so they will almost certainly try to move out from DR's contract this offseason.

Detroit trades Kelly Olynyk($12.8) + Cory Joseph($5.2 million) for Duncan Robinson($16.9 million) + #27 + $5 million cash.

Why for Detroit? They get to take a late flyer on a first round pick that will get locked into a cheap deal for four seasons, as well as they get someone who can space the floor which is needed not just for Cade but also if you're going to have guys like Diallo and Hayes in the 2nd unit. Even though Robinson is currently overpaid, if his shooting bounces back as you'd expect he's probably a full MLE type bench player and top 5 3 point shooter in the league scoring about 14-15 a night.

Bench mob becomes Hayes / Diallo / Duncan / Livers / Bagley

Pass. I can think of better ways to burn the 3 extra seasons of $19M in cap space.

Not worth a late first.

At that point you might as well chase Malik Monk. He's 24 and will cost half as much. It's gonna be a bit worse for your cap situation this year, but it's a weak class anyway. Let Grant & CoJo contracts run their courses, buyout KO for $3 mil and take 1 more stab at FA.

Or do none of that. Either way I can't see any reason to wanna take on Duncans' terrible contract. Or why we'd want any more backup SG for that matter.

Imo it ain't bad Id think about. Robinson is a really good movement shooter something we don't have. He could be valuable here.

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Cowology wrote:At that point you might as well chase Malik Monk. He's 24 and will cost half as much. It's gonna be a bit worse for your cap situation this year, but it's a weak class anyway. Let Grant & CoJo contracts run their courses, buyout KO for $3 mil and take 1 more stab at FA.

Or do none of that. Either way I can't see any reason to wanna take on Duncans' terrible contract. Or why we'd want any more backup SG for that matter.

I for sure don't love it, but I think its the type of deal that could be offered to us in a few weeks as the draft approaches. Its a bit of a high risk, lower reward type move. Maybe you get lucky and he both finds his stroke again and the 27th pick ends up being a decent bench player as well... but on the other hand Duncan is another 6th or 7th guy on the roster type player (much like Olynyk) so I also don't really love tying up that much money into a guy coming off the bench.

I would also likely pass on this deal because it reduces summer of 2023 flexibility that we should have.

bstein14 wrote:

Cowology wrote:At that point you might as well chase Malik Monk. He's 24 and will cost half as much. It's gonna be a bit worse for your cap situation this year, but it's a weak class anyway. Let Grant & CoJo contracts run their courses, buyout KO for $3 mil and take 1 more stab at FA.

Or do none of that. Either way I can't see any reason to wanna take on Duncans' terrible contract. Or why we'd want any more backup SG for that matter.

I for sure don't love it, but I think its the type of deal that could be offered to us in a few weeks as the draft approaches. Its a bit of a high risk, lower reward type move. Maybe you get lucky and he both finds his stroke again and the 27th pick ends up being a decent bench player as well... but on the other hand Duncan is another 6th or 7th guy on the roster type player (much like Olynyk) so I also don't really love tying up that much money into a guy coming off the bench.

I would also likely pass on this deal because it reduces summer of 2023 flexibility that we should have.

We have a team full of backups. We need to focus on finding good starters to pair with Cade. Barring that we need to make sure we aren't doing anything to actively impair our ability to add quality starters. Taking on bad salary is one of those liabilities. It's not about whether Duncan improves our team, but whether it impacts our ability to potentially add a more impactful player either now or in the future.

I have ZERO interest in taking on salary for any non-starter. Literal zero. We have at least 1-2 backups for every position. We're actually incredibly deep and while we have some skill deficits those are things that should largely be addressed via upgrading starters, not by allocating any more resources towards our bench. The bench is not the problem.

Cowology wrote:

bstein14 wrote:

Cowology wrote:At that point you might as well chase Malik Monk. He's 24 and will cost half as much. It's gonna be a bit worse for your cap situation this year, but it's a weak class anyway. Let Grant & CoJo contracts run their courses, buyout KO for $3 mil and take 1 more stab at FA.

Or do none of that. Either way I can't see any reason to wanna take on Duncans' terrible contract. Or why we'd want any more backup SG for that matter.

I for sure don't love it, but I think its the type of deal that could be offered to us in a few weeks as the draft approaches. Its a bit of a high risk, lower reward type move. Maybe you get lucky and he both finds his stroke again and the 27th pick ends up being a decent bench player as well... but on the other hand Duncan is another 6th or 7th guy on the roster type player (much like Olynyk) so I also don't really love tying up that much money into a guy coming off the bench.

I would also likely pass on this deal because it reduces summer of 2023 flexibility that we should have.

We have a team full of backups. We need to focus on finding good starters to pair with Cade. Barring that we need to make sure we aren't doing anything to actively impair our ability to add quality starters. Taking on bad salary is one of those liabilities. It's not about whether Duncan improves our team, but whether it impacts our ability to potentially add a more impactful player either now or in the future.

I have ZERO interest in taking on salary for any non-starter. Literal zero. We have at least 1-2 backups for every position. We're actually incredibly deep and while we have some skill deficits those are things that should largely be addressed via upgrading starters, not by allocating any more resources towards our bench. The bench is not the problem.

You don't want to sink money into bench players, so you'd pass on giving Bagley a deal this summer? Hold out for higher caliber players? I get what you're saying. Giving Bagley 3 years $27 million that's $9 million that could go towards a a bigger impact player. Same thing with picking up the $7+ million option for Hayes' 4th year... seems like with that $16 million between the two you should certainly be able to get more of an impact player than what those two are.

bstein14 wrote:

Cowology wrote:

bstein14 wrote:

I for sure don't love it, but I think its the type of deal that could be offered to us in a few weeks as the draft approaches. Its a bit of a high risk, lower reward type move. Maybe you get lucky and he both finds his stroke again and the 27th pick ends up being a decent bench player as well... but on the other hand Duncan is another 6th or 7th guy on the roster type player (much like Olynyk) so I also don't really love tying up that much money into a guy coming off the bench.

I would also likely pass on this deal because it reduces summer of 2023 flexibility that we should have.

We have a team full of backups. We need to focus on finding good starters to pair with Cade. Barring that we need to make sure we aren't doing anything to actively impair our ability to add quality starters. Taking on bad salary is one of those liabilities. It's not about whether Duncan improves our team, but whether it impacts our ability to potentially add a more impactful player either now or in the future.

I have ZERO interest in taking on salary for any non-starter. Literal zero. We have at least 1-2 backups for every position. We're actually incredibly deep and while we have some skill deficits those are things that should largely be addressed via upgrading starters, not by allocating any more resources towards our bench. The bench is not the problem.

You don't want to sink money into bench players, so you'd pass on giving Bagley a deal this summer? Hold out for higher caliber players? I get what you're saying. Giving Bagley 3 years $27 million that's $9 million that could go towards a a bigger impact player. Same thing with picking up the $7+ million option for Hayes' 4th year... seems like with that $16 million between the two you should certainly be able to get more of an impact player than what those two are.

Think Cow is assuming Bags will be back on a reasonable deal and that gives us a bench of:

KO
Bags
Livers
Diallo
Hayes

That's fine given the price tag and production and I agree with Cow:

The starters are the issue, at least at C & PG.

Stewart and CoJo are bench players. IF we're able to acquire 2 legit starters this off-season, move those 2 dudes onto the bench and we're deep.

Ayton/Robinson/Jalen Smith
Grant or Rookie top 3 pick
Bey
Trade (via Grant)/FA or Rookie
Cade

It would take a lot more than #27 for me to take the risk on Robinson and I doubt Miami is willing to give up "enough" to move him.


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Too much money for too many years, if his contract was a year or 2 shorter I would think about it.

bstein14 wrote:

Cowology wrote:

bstein14 wrote:

I for sure don't love it, but I think its the type of deal that could be offered to us in a few weeks as the draft approaches. Its a bit of a high risk, lower reward type move. Maybe you get lucky and he both finds his stroke again and the 27th pick ends up being a decent bench player as well... but on the other hand Duncan is another 6th or 7th guy on the roster type player (much like Olynyk) so I also don't really love tying up that much money into a guy coming off the bench.

I would also likely pass on this deal because it reduces summer of 2023 flexibility that we should have.

We have a team full of backups. We need to focus on finding good starters to pair with Cade. Barring that we need to make sure we aren't doing anything to actively impair our ability to add quality starters. Taking on bad salary is one of those liabilities. It's not about whether Duncan improves our team, but whether it impacts our ability to potentially add a more impactful player either now or in the future.

I have ZERO interest in taking on salary for any non-starter. Literal zero. We have at least 1-2 backups for every position. We're actually incredibly deep and while we have some skill deficits those are things that should largely be addressed via upgrading starters, not by allocating any more resources towards our bench. The bench is not the problem.

You don't want to sink money into bench players, so you'd pass on giving Bagley a deal this summer? Hold out for higher caliber players? I get what you're saying. Giving Bagley 3 years $27 million that's $9 million that could go towards a a bigger impact player. Same thing with picking up the $7+ million option for Hayes' 4th year... seems like with that $16 million between the two you should certainly be able to get more of an impact player than what those two are.

You have to make it through 1) the draft and 2) the Grant situation before you can really start to think about Bagley. I like the guy more than most and I'd much rather give him money than Robinson, but we've got a potential logjam at the 4-spot that we need to figure out. For whatever it's worth... I'd start Bagley over Bey right now. No joke.

No

I thought that contract was an overpay when it happened. And that was back when I thought he’d continue shooting as he had.

I don’t think there is enough incentive here to take that contract on.

How does the short pale love child of Tim Duncan and David Robinson help us? <confused>

No. You obviously don't go after overpaid bench guys before you even have a starting lineup nailed down.

I don't really want to help out the Heat by offloading that contract especially if they may win the title this year

Now if the deal was for Max Strus, then yes. But Heat won't do it so it's pointless

Robinson's contract has a buyout in the last year, making it about $64 million guaranteed. At his age, I expect what you see is what you get, a three point specialist that you have to hide on the defensive end. Although I see how he would be valuable fit offensively, he looks like a backup/role player on a contender.

The deal could be of some interest if one could be sure he'll be a consistent 40+% three point shooter going forward. Anything less and he's more of a liability that an asset with that contract. I'd pass unless they sweeten the deal.

bstein14 wrote:

Cowology wrote:At that point you might as well chase Malik Monk. He's 24 and will cost half as much. It's gonna be a bit worse for your cap situation this year, but it's a weak class anyway. Let Grant & CoJo contracts run their courses, buyout KO for $3 mil and take 1 more stab at FA.

Or do none of that. Either way I can't see any reason to wanna take on Duncans' terrible contract. Or why we'd want any more backup SG for that matter.

I for sure don't love it, but I think its the type of deal that could be offered to us in a few weeks as the draft approaches. Its a bit of a high risk, lower reward type move. Maybe you get lucky and he both finds his stroke again and the 27th pick ends up being a decent bench player as well... but on the other hand Duncan is another 6th or 7th guy on the roster type player (much like Olynyk) so I also don't really love tying up that much money into a guy coming off the bench.

I would also likely pass on this deal because it reduces summer of 2023 flexibility that we should have.

Anytime you can make a high risk low reward move for 4 years 75mill................

No. Even with it not being completely guaranteed it’s still not worth it. That’s the kind of player/contract you acquire for largely deadweight when you’re at least a consistently in the Eastern conference finals. He should never have got that contract. You’d basically just be doing Miami a favor.

Nope. The Pistons have one of the best benches in the league, and have had a great bench since the 19-20 season. No joke.(it shows that the Pistons have been adding bench players, or are a team with very good bench pieces, low end starters)

As Cow has stated, starters only. Anyone signed, or drafted(with the top pick of course) is going to be an immediate starter.

All of these types of questions are going to be much easier to answer after Tuesday. The number on that pick, will immediately let us know ow who the team is likely to select. Top 3, big. Lower, Murray, or a guard