5th overall pick betting odds just hit

[A_dub06]

Told ya. Murray now at -120 for the 5th overall pick on Draft Kings. Apparently that means Weaver is now in love with him and it's a done deal.

For reference the 1-4 favorites are:
1 - Smith (-190)
2 - Holmgren (-325)
3 - Banchero (-500)
4 - Ivey (-300)

Lucky I’ve got $400 riding on us picking Murray now then.

$100 @ $3.80
$300 @ $2

On paper that looks like a good bet but as I explained the Vegas odds after opening mean NOTHING relative to the chances that, in this case, Murray winds up as the #5 pick. It means only one thing--lots of money is being bet on Murray being the #5 pick. That in no way whatsoever represents a change in Weaver's opinion of who he wants to take at 5. For all we know Sacramento is in love with Murray at 4 and Ivey drops to 5, and Weaver takes either Ivey or Sharpe. Again, ROY is the perfect example. Mobley was the clear betting favorite the entire season...and didn't win. So the betting odds were no indication whatsoever of what was actually going to happen.

I’d say I have a pretty good understanding of betting and don’t deny what you’re saying, but I also think the odds have decreased due to intel out there.

And I made the bet based on my own assumptions and evaluations as opposed to the market. The odds were simply the monetary reward of putting my money down on those assumptions.

[buzzkilloton]

Geez. Weaver already wants go along to get along role players on this bottom three team.

A slow footed role player at that. The draft board is full of big time athletes and our core is in desperate need of them. Taking Murray is gross to think about I hope Weaver is really planning on Sharpe/Ivey.

Are we watching the same tape? Murray is slow and flat-footed?

What?

Yes he is slow footed. He struggles on switches. Sam V and Penny did a breakdown on their youtube channel on his defense he gambles alot and is out of position as well. His defensive stocks are fine but his actual defense is just meh. Hes essentially a 3nD guy with meh defense and even his 3pter he only shot 75% at the line which isnt a elite shooters number.

I really dont think Weaver is going to fall for the old ultra productive college tweener prospect at 5. Murray has meh all over him.

[buzzkilloton]

Lucky I’ve got $400 riding on us picking Murray now then.

$100 @ $3.80
$300 @ $2

On paper that looks like a good bet but as I explained the Vegas odds after opening mean NOTHING relative to the chances that, in this case, Murray winds up as the #5 pick. It means only one thing--lots of money is being bet on Murray being the #5 pick. That in no way whatsoever represents a change in Weaver's opinion of who he wants to take at 5. For all we know Sacramento is in love with Murray at 4 and Ivey drops to 5, and Weaver takes either Ivey or Sharpe. Again, ROY is the perfect example. Mobley was the clear betting favorite the entire season...and didn't win. So the betting odds were no indication whatsoever of what was actually going to happen.

I’d say I have a pretty good understanding of betting and don’t deny what you’re saying, but I also think the odds have decreased due to intel out there.

And I made the bet based on my own assumptions and evaluations as opposed to the market. The odds were simply the monetary reward of putting my money down on those assumptions.

I have manocad blocked but I see hes still making a strawman argument about something nobody was even saying as he always does.

[Manocad]

Lucky I’ve got $400 riding on us picking Murray now then.

$100 @ $3.80
$300 @ $2

On paper that looks like a good bet but as I explained the Vegas odds after opening mean NOTHING relative to the chances that, in this case, Murray winds up as the #5 pick. It means only one thing--lots of money is being bet on Murray being the #5 pick. That in no way whatsoever represents a change in Weaver's opinion of who he wants to take at 5. For all we know Sacramento is in love with Murray at 4 and Ivey drops to 5, and Weaver takes either Ivey or Sharpe. Again, ROY is the perfect example. Mobley was the clear betting favorite the entire season...and didn't win. So the betting odds were no indication whatsoever of what was actually going to happen.

I’d say I have a pretty good understanding of betting and don’t deny what you’re saying, but I also think the odds have decreased due to intel out there.

And I made the bet based on my own assumptions and evaluations as opposed to the market. The odds were simply the monetary reward of putting my money down on those assumptions.

You can believe what you want relative to what moves the betting odds; I'm not going to try to change your mind. I can only say that it is 100% guaranteed that Vegas wants even money on both sides of the bet. They're not trying to win; they make money on every betting transaction. So if heavy money is being bet on Murray going at #5, Vegas doesn't want to have to pay out a bunch of money. So the odds move in order to attract bettors to put money down on someone other than Murray to even the money out.

Let's say the odds opened at Murray +200 and every single bettor out there said "Man, that's a good deal because I think it's a pretty sure thing that Murray will go #5" and every single bet, for a total of millions of dollars, got put down on Murray at +200 over the course of a few days. Take a wild stab at what would happen to those odds---they'd go to -500 (or similar) in a heartbeat, with the odds on Ivey, Sharpe, etc. jumping up just a much in order to draw money to the other side of the bet. And that has absolutely nothing to do with Weaver changing his mind. That's just reality.

[A_dub06]

On paper that looks like a good bet but as I explained the Vegas odds after opening mean NOTHING relative to the chances that, in this case, Murray winds up as the #5 pick. It means only one thing--lots of money is being bet on Murray being the #5 pick. That in no way whatsoever represents a change in Weaver's opinion of who he wants to take at 5. For all we know Sacramento is in love with Murray at 4 and Ivey drops to 5, and Weaver takes either Ivey or Sharpe. Again, ROY is the perfect example. Mobley was the clear betting favorite the entire season...and didn't win. So the betting odds were no indication whatsoever of what was actually going to happen.

I’d say I have a pretty good understanding of betting and don’t deny what you’re saying, but I also think the odds have decreased due to intel out there.

And I made the bet based on my own assumptions and evaluations as opposed to the market. The odds were simply the monetary reward of putting my money down on those assumptions.

You can believe what you want relative to what moves the betting odds; I'm not going to try to change your mind. I can only say that it is 100% guaranteed that Vegas wants even money on both sides of the bet. They're not trying to win; they make money on every betting transaction. So if heavy money is being bet on Murray going at #5, Vegas doesn't want to have to pay out a bunch of money. So the odds move in order to attract bettors to put money down on someone other than Murray to even the money out.

Let's say the odds opened at Murray +200 and every single bettor out there said "Man, that's a good deal because I think it's a pretty sure thing that Murray will go #5" and every single bet, for a total of millions of dollars, got put down on Murray at +200 over the course of a few days. Take a wild stab at what would happen to those odds---they'd go to -500 (or similar) in a heartbeat, with the odds on Ivey, Sharpe, etc. jumping up just a much in order to draw money to the other side of the bet. And that has absolutely nothing to do with Weaver changing his mind. That's just reality.

Yeah I already know about that, I have a mate who worked for a major betting company and explained in detail the mechanics of how they make their money.

Still happy I got in a my perspective price points.

[Manocad]

On paper that looks like a good bet but as I explained the Vegas odds after opening mean NOTHING relative to the chances that, in this case, Murray winds up as the #5 pick. It means only one thing--lots of money is being bet on Murray being the #5 pick. That in no way whatsoever represents a change in Weaver's opinion of who he wants to take at 5. For all we know Sacramento is in love with Murray at 4 and Ivey drops to 5, and Weaver takes either Ivey or Sharpe. Again, ROY is the perfect example. Mobley was the clear betting favorite the entire season...and didn't win. So the betting odds were no indication whatsoever of what was actually going to happen.

I’d say I have a pretty good understanding of betting and don’t deny what you’re saying, but I also think the odds have decreased due to intel out there.

And I made the bet based on my own assumptions and evaluations as opposed to the market. The odds were simply the monetary reward of putting my money down on those assumptions.

I have manocad blocked but I see hes still making a strawman argument about something nobody was even saying as he always does.

Still living in your head rent-free, I see.

[Jsindto]

We're getting close to the draft, and the #1 pick odds are getting interesting. Paolo has some serious $$$ coming in moving the line. I'm thinking there's a chance the surprises are going to start right away at #1.

Probably doesn't affect the Pistons since it probably just means Jabari goes #3 instead of #1. But still fun.

[SamFlow]

If you think about the type of players Weaver goes for.... I can see Ivey, Sharpe, AJ Griffin, Mathurin at the top of the list. Griffin and Mathurin spread the floor for Cade with high efficiency. EJ Liddell coming late in the first or early second. --- TBH, I have no idea what Weaver and the pistons are going to do. Nobody saw the Kennard trade coming for what he got for it, lower pick but looks to be a GRRRRREAT choice with Bey.

[buzzkilloton]

Good **** to anyone who bet that early Mathurin line. I know a few of us said right away it was a bad line by the book. That was a great equity pick up if you took it he was +3k at that time.

Huge update on the odds

Murray +130
Ivey +175
Mathurin +175
Sharpe +600

[LaSheed]

Good **** to anyone who bet that early Mathurin line. I know a few of us said right away it was a bad line by the book. That was a great equity pick up if you took it he was +3k at that time.

Huge update on the odds

Murray +130
Ivey +175
Mathurin +175
Sharpe +600

Lol damn. Was +700 just yesterday

[buzzkilloton]

Good **** to anyone who bet that early Mathurin line. I know a few of us said right away it was a bad line by the book. That was a great equity pick up if you took it he was +3k at that time.

Huge update on the odds

Murray +130
Ivey +175
Mathurin +175
Sharpe +600

Lol damn. Was +700 just yesterday

I heard he had a awesome workout with us.

I much prefer Ivey but if hes gone I'm ok with Math or even Daniels. I wasnt considering Math early in the process because I figured Sharpe was in play. Sucks now that the feel is Sharpes more of a 7or later guy.

[Snakebites]

Looks like nobody has any idea who we’re taking.

[The Moose]

Good **** to anyone who bet that early Mathurin line. I know a few of us said right away it was a bad line by the book. That was a great equity pick up if you took it he was +3k at that time.

Huge update on the odds

Murray +130
Ivey +175
Mathurin +175
Sharpe +600

glad i put a bit down on Mathurin at the time. Got a couple of bets between 25:1 and 20:1 odds on him at 5. He's someone I don't want, but a nice pay day would help get through it

[bstein14]

All the big late money seems to be on Mathurin. He could be the Patrick Williams or Scottie Barnes of this draft class.... moving up into the top 5 when previously expected to be a bit lower.

It does feel like the unknown Sharpe has fallen a bit and is now most likely getting picked in the 8 to 11 range but of course I could be off on him if someone had a great workout with him that could certainly change. It just feels like he has fallen off on the chatter a bit and could be a draft day dropper.

[Manocad]

Looks like nobody has any idea who we’re taking.

Which comes as no surprise.

I keep saying that the Vegas odds are driven by money being bet, not by GM's changing their preferences out of the blue.

[ElectricMayhem]

All the big late money seems to be on Mathurin.

I have a feeling that Ivey is going to drop to us....then drop past us. Remember when we were all excited that Justise Winslow dropped to us only for Detroit to go with an Arizona Wildcat? It'll be the same. Only this time, we'll end up happy with our selection.

I haven't seen anyone else mocking Ivey as low as 6. You heard it here first. So don't quote me so I can edit this and change history if I'm way off.

[Manocad]

All the big late money seems to be on Mathurin.

I have a feeling that Ivey is going to drop to us....then drop past us. Remember when we were all excited that Justise Winslow dropped to us only for Detroit to go with an Arizona Wildcat? It'll be the same. Only this time, we'll end up happy with our selection.

I haven't seen anyone else mocking Ivey as low as 6. You heard it here first. So don't quote me so I can edit this and change history if I'm way off.

Too late. Ivey's not dropping to 6.

[NYPiston]

Good **** to anyone who bet that early Mathurin line. I know a few of us said right away it was a bad line by the book. That was a great equity pick up if you took it he was +3k at that time.

Huge update on the odds

Murray +130
Ivey +175
Mathurin +175
Sharpe +600

Huge update in what sense? That Ivey gained steam on Murray?

Actually, Mathurin shot up quite a bit, no? I don't know, those are awfully tight odds between the three this close in.

[Manocad]

Good **** to anyone who bet that early Mathurin line. I know a few of us said right away it was a bad line by the book. That was a great equity pick up if you took it he was +3k at that time.

Huge update on the odds

Murray +130
Ivey +175
Mathurin +175
Sharpe +600

Huge update in what sense? That Ivey gained steam on Murray?

Actually, Mathurin shot up quite a bit, no? I don't know, those are awfully tight odds between the three this close in.

I'm assuming it's in reference to Mathurin going from +3000 to +175. Meaning a whole lot of people took that bet at +3000.

[Jsindto]

All the big late money seems to be on Mathurin.

I have a feeling that Ivey is going to drop to us....then drop past us. Remember when we were all excited that Justise Winslow dropped to us only for Detroit to go with an Arizona Wildcat? It'll be the same. Only this time, we'll end up happy with our selection.

I haven't seen anyone else mocking Ivey as low as 6. You heard it here first. So don't quote me so I can edit this and change history if I'm way off.

Too late. Ivey's not dropping to 6.

If Ivey is there at 5 and Weaver doesn't love him, I wouldn't mind an Ivey/Grant trade for #7/Anfernee Simons. Dare to dream.