Summer 2023 Cap Space Projections (Pistons $63 million)

[bstein14]

A good article on next summer's financials from Keith Smith over at spotrac. Obviously everything is subject to change as lots of movement can and will happen between now and next summer.

https://www.spotrac.com/spots/initial-2023-cap-space-projections-1566/

2023 Cap Space Projections
1. Houston Rockets $70.1 million
2. Detroit Pistons $62.9 million
3. Indiana Pacers $53.1 million (Myles Turner is a FA if they resign him that # shrinks a ton)
4. San Antonio Spurs $46.3 million
5. Utah Jazz $33.4 million
6. OKC $32 million
7. Orlando $31.7 million

These are the teams currently capable of offering any team $20+ million Cavs could also join that group if they don't end up extending Sexton this summer.

Only 4 teams will have full non tax payer MLE's to offer. Brooklyn (assuming they let Kyrie walk), Chicago, Minny, Sacramento.

15 teams are currently set to be above the luxury tax threshold next year which is a lot of teams. There could be real value in helping some of these teams get below the tax, and is a likely move for teams that are still early enough in the rebuild process, perhaps like San Antonio. I'm not sure if Weaver will move on to sign FAs or still look to take on some bad salary for draft capital.

Atlanta Hawks
Boston Celtics
Dallas Mavericks
Denver Nuggets
Golden State Warriors
LA Clippers
Miami Heat
Milwaukee Bucks
New Orleans Pelicans
New York Knicks
Philadelphia 76ers
Phoenix Suns
Portland Trail Blazers
Toronto Raptors
Washington Wizards

[Shooter1]

Sound great but what so we need?
Our 2 guards Cade/Ivey are ride or die. If Bey improves we are set at SF.

Duran is 4 years out (18years old) before he starts to peek. So that leaves C and PF. We most likely will be in the lottery next year and if guessing PF will be our target. This means we will have to move out Bey is we decide to get a superstar or Center which in today's game is not where you want to spend your money.

[whitehops]

just comparing with my own projections, that figure is WITH us picking up hayes' 4th year option before october this year. so we could have ~$70 million in cap space if we decline that option.

that also assumes we DON'T pick up alec burks' team option, which i think it's more likely we do based on his play last season.

so basically....
with hayes and burks= ~$52.5 million
with burks and NO hayes= ~$60.0 million
with hayes and NO burks= ~$62.9 million
with NO burks OR hayes= ~$70.5 million

those are really the two biggest variables at this point. i really doubt noel's team option gets picked up and if olynyk has a bounce-back year then he might be worth his $12 million but we may cut him anyways to try to clear the logjam we have at center.

EDIT: it's also worth noting that with the $133 million salary cap used, a young veteran max deal would be $33.25M in year 1, a vet with 7-9 years experience would be $39.9M and players with 10 or more years would be $46.6M.

[NYPiston]

I'm actually shocked that somebody is projected to have more cap space than the Pistons.
This doesn't take into account Olynyk's team option not being picked up, right? If not then that's another 12m tacked on unless there's some other clauses in his contract that I'm not accounting for since it seems more than likely that he won't be here past this season.

[NYPiston]

Sound great but what so we need?
Our 2 guards Cade/Ivey are ride or die. If Bey improves we are set at SF.

Duran is 4 years out (18years old) before he starts to peek. So that leaves C and PF. We most likely will be in the lottery next year and if guessing PF will be our target. This means we will have to move out Bey is we decide to get a superstar or Center which in today's game is not where you want to spend your money.

I like Bey and all but he's expendable if they have an upgrade in mind.

Really, the only untouchable on this team is Cade. I'm inclined to include Ivey and Duren due to the combination of upside and 4 year rookie salary but even they are tradeable if they're the main piece in a young superstar trade.

[Manocad]

Sound great but what so we need?
Our 2 guards Cade/Ivey are ride or die. If Bey improves we are set at SF.

Duran is 4 years out (18years old) before he starts to peek. So that leaves C and PF. We most likely will be in the lottery next year and if guessing PF will be our target. This means we will have to move out Bey is we decide to get a superstar or Center which in today's game is not where you want to spend your money.

I like Bey and all but he's expendable if they have an upgrade in mind.

Really, the only untouchable on this team is Cade. I'm inclined to include Ivey and Duren due to the combination of upside and 4 year rookie salary but even they are tradeable if they're the main piece in a young superstar trade.

If you're willing to tear it all down to just Cade in order to upgrade, why not include Cade in order to upgrade? Then after that why not use what you get for Cade to go for another upgrade?

There is an expectation by the ownership and the fans that you roll out a team and start competing at some point. Cade plus a superstar plus a bunch of so-so role players doesn't win anything.

[FloridaMan78]

Sound great but what so we need?
Our 2 guards Cade/Ivey are ride or die. If Bey improves we are set at SF.

Duran is 4 years out (18years old) before he starts to peek. So that leaves C and PF. We most likely will be in the lottery next year and if guessing PF will be our target. This means we will have to move out Bey is we decide to get a superstar or Center which in today's game is not where you want to spend your money.

I like Bey and all but he's expendable if they have an upgrade in mind.

Really, the only untouchable on this team is Cade. I'm inclined to include Ivey and Duren due to the combination of upside and 4 year rookie salary but even they are tradeable if they're the main piece in a young superstar trade.

I like Bey. But it does limit us a bit. With him at forward, that other forward should be an elite perimeter defender. I just don’t see Cade or Ivey being elite perimeter defenders.

[NYPiston]

If you're willing to tear it all down to just Cade in order to upgrade, why not include Cade in order to upgrade? Then after that why not use what you get for Cade to go for another upgrade?

There is an expectation by the ownership and the fans that you roll out a team and start competing at some point. Cade plus a superstar plus a bunch of so-so role players doesn't win anything.

Where did I say anything about tearing it all down? All I'm saying is that everybody on this roster is expendable in the right trade. I'm sure that's the case for most teams in the league that don't have two superstars/potential superstars.

I was just posting this in response to the poster who was wondering what the Pistons really need considering all the cap flexibility they'll have going forward. My point is that you can't be worried about need necessarily and limit your shopping list so just because you have Bey, for instance, at small forward that shouldn't preclude you from potentially upgrading on Bey if the option was available.

You don't trade Cade because he has top 10 player in the league potential and seems to really like it here. I think anybody else could be had in the RIGHT trade and for guys like Ivey, Bey and Duren, it would have to be in a package for a legit young star locked up long term.

[whitehops]

I'm actually shocked that somebody is projected to have more cap space than the Pistons.
This doesn't take into account Olynyk's team option not being picked up, right? If not then that's another 12m tacked on unless there's some other clauses in his contract that I'm not accounting for since it seems more than likely that he won't be here past this season.

i'm almost positive that this projection assumes we cut olynyk and only take on his $3 million guaranteed next season, freeing up a little over $9 million in cap space.

[whitehops]

here's my projection:

note: the total at the bottom is cap space, not the sum of the contracts.

if we pick up killian hayes' 4th year option this off season then his cap hit would be $7,413,955.

[bstein14]

I'm actually shocked that somebody is projected to have more cap space than the Pistons.
This doesn't take into account Olynyk's team option not being picked up, right? If not then that's another 12m tacked on unless there's some other clauses in his contract that I'm not accounting for since it seems more than likely that he won't be here past this season.

i'm almost positive that this projection assumes we cut olynyk and only take on his $3 million guaranteed next season, freeing up a little over $9 million in cap space.

It does include us cutting Olynyk loose... Also, the Rockets have a non guaranteed year for Eric Gordon and essentially have nothing but rookie contracts so it makes sense why they have the most. We'd have been at $75+ million or perhaps $83 million in space if we didn't sign Bagley and Knox and we didn't pick up Hayes' 4th year option.

[bstein14]

here's my projection:


if we pick up killian hayes' 4th year option this off season then his cap hit would be $7,413,955.

For sure worth nothing that 2023 draft picks weren't included in those projections, but in reality there is a huge difference between a 1st pick salary and a 7th or 8th pick salary and we really have no idea where everyone will end up.

[whitehops]

For sure worth nothing that 2023 draft picks weren't included in those projections, but in reality there is a huge difference between a 1st pick salary and a 7th or 8th pick salary and we really have no idea where everyone will end up.

yeah there's a ~$5 million difference between the first pick and the 8th pick. i tried to go somewhere in the middle of that for my projection.

[theBigLip]

If you're willing to tear it all down to just Cade in order to upgrade, why not include Cade in order to upgrade? Then after that why not use what you get for Cade to go for another upgrade?

There is an expectation by the ownership and the fans that you roll out a team and start competing at some point. Cade plus a superstar plus a bunch of so-so role players doesn't win anything.

Where did I say anything about tearing it all down? All I'm saying is that everybody on this roster is expendable in the right trade. I'm sure that's the case for most teams in the league that don't have two superstars/potential superstars.

I was just posting this in response to the poster who was wondering what the Pistons really need considering all the cap flexibility they'll have going forward. My point is that you can't be worried about need necessarily and limit your shopping list so just because you have Bey, for instance, at small forward that shouldn't preclude you from potentially upgrading on Bey if the option was available.

You don't trade Cade because he has top 10 player in the league potential and seems to really like it here. I think anybody else could be had in the RIGHT trade and for guys like Ivey, Bey and Duren, it would have to be in a package for a legit young star locked up long term.

Of course anyone could be traded for the right deal but I’m pretty sure we’re going forward with this core. And if we get a star to play SF, then Bey can come off the bench.

We need 8-9 quality players including 2-3 stars for us to be an elite team. We need growth from everyone in our rotation plus adding a few strategic free agents.

[Manocad]

If you're willing to tear it all down to just Cade in order to upgrade, why not include Cade in order to upgrade? Then after that why not use what you get for Cade to go for another upgrade?

There is an expectation by the ownership and the fans that you roll out a team and start competing at some point. Cade plus a superstar plus a bunch of so-so role players doesn't win anything.

Where did I say anything about tearing it all down? All I'm saying is that everybody on this roster is expendable in the right trade. I'm sure that's the case for most teams in the league that don't have two superstars/potential superstars.

I was just posting this in response to the poster who was wondering what the Pistons really need considering all the cap flexibility they'll have going forward. My point is that you can't be worried about need necessarily and limit your shopping list so just because you have Bey, for instance, at small forward that shouldn't preclude you from potentially upgrading on Bey if the option was available.

You don't trade Cade because he has top 10 player in the league potential and seems to really like it here. I think anybody else could be had in the RIGHT trade and for guys like Ivey, Bey and Duren, it would have to be in a package for a legit young star locked up long term.

Of course anyone could be traded for the right deal but I’m pretty sure we’re going forward with this core. And if we get a star to play SF, then Bey can come off the bench.

We need 8-9 quality players including 2-3 stars for us to be an elite team. We need growth from everyone in our rotation plus adding a few strategic free agents.

Exactly. I’m fairly sure that Bey, Ivey and Duren are slated to be part of that core moving forward. So if you package up the three of them to get an established star, you’re basically down to Cade, that star, Stew and leftovers. So you’re hitting the reset button again, not all the way, but pushing the rebuild out further. I don’t see a need for that, especially given the cap space.

[breezypeezy]

That chart you guys are posting is actually $73 million less than the projected cap. Why is Sportrak article saying $63 million in space?
What's the $10 million in difference?

Eta: I'm missing something apparently.

[whitehops]

That chart you guys are posting is actually $73 million less than the projected cap. Why is Sportrak article saying $63 million in space?
What's the $10 million in difference?

Eta: I'm missing something apparently.

sorry it's a little confusing because i didn't label it, the total at the bottom is cap space, not the sum of the contracts.

i knew that in my head but should have thought about it before sharing with other people :S

and the ~$3 million difference between mine and spotrac's is they assume we'll pick up hayes' ~$7.5M option but not burks ~$10.5M option and i assumed the opposite so mine has us with ~$3M less cap space.

[breezypeezy]

Got it, thanks.

[El Chivo]

Read on Twitter

[TPA]

Read on Twitter

Beautiful.