2023 East Standings - Predictions

[theBigLip]

Now that the Mitchell trade is done and Durant is staying put, everyone's core seems pretty much set (except for that Westbrook thing). So how do you think things will play out this year? East is no joke - going to be tough for us to make the playoffs. I'll share my thoughts and if they look good next year, I'm sure to bump this thread

So I'll go with regular season standings, then predict the playoffs as a result.

Playoff teams:
1 Boston Celtics - they will make an effort to get the #1 seed
2 Milwaukee Bucks - already won a championship, they won't worry as much about the regular season
3 Brooklyn Nets - this is a risky placement, but contract year for Kyrie and Simmons (if healthy) is a good fit
4 Miami Heat - Heat will always be in the mix, but not at the top.
5 Philadelphia 76ers - what will Harden produce? Embid needs help. If he gets it, they could go all the way.
6 Cleveland Cavaliers - Mitchell is a great trade for them and if they stay healthy, they could get as high as 3

Play ins:
7 Toronto Raptors
8 Atlanta Hawks - interesting trade but do they have enough to move up? I don't think so.
9 Chicago Bulls - can they stay healthy? Solid team w Ball coming back.
10 New York Knicks - Brunson isn't good enough to take this roster any higher

Lottery Bound:
11 Detroit Pistons
12 Washington Wizards
13 Charlotte Hornets
14 Orlando Magic
15 Indiana Pacers

Play in winners:
Atlanta (gets #7) and Chicago (gets #8)

First Round:
Boston beats Chicago
Milwaukee beats Atlanta
Cleveland beats Brooklyn - this could be a great series!
Philadelphia beats Miami

Semis:
Boston beats Philadelphia
Milwaukee beats Cleveland

ECF Finals:
Milwaukee beats Boston - might not be a logical pick, but have I mentioned how much I hate Boston?

[edmunder_prc]

Wouldn't suprise me if the Magic and Pacers roster played well together. Magic have a ton of young talent and the Pacers still have a very solid team.

Pistons still dont know what the have in Ivey who will be the real difference maker. Plus Bey and Stewart need to play like they did at their best, but for a whole season.

I still have Pistons battling for among the worst teams.

[bstein14]

Nets are the biggest question mark because we haven't seen Simmons play in forever, and we don't know if we'll get motivated KD & Kyrie or not. Kyrie wasn't given the big extension he originally wanted. KD asked out. Nets have the talent to be #1 or #2 but if they aren't wanting to go out and fight each night for that coaching staff and ownership group they could easily just go through the motions and land in the play-in games.

Beyond that, how else do those KD trade rumors impact team chemistry on teams like Boston, Miami, Philly, etc. Reportedly Boston offered Brown, Philly offered Harris + Maxey, Miami offered Herro plus others, etc.

I will say that this is the best the East has been in a while, and I think you're right on the tiers except perhaps people are underrating how good Murray is and will be for Atlanta, not just because of the numbers he puts up but also his defense is good. I think the Hawks are more likely to be in the 4/5 range than the 7/8 range but its close there so I understand where people have them there... probably only a few games separates everything.

The Pistons ceiling is likely 10th and their floor is likely 13th in the East.

[Southern Piston]

As high as 10th as low as 15th

[Snakebites]

Yeah, barring major injuries it is hard to see us cracking into the top 9.

Of course, chances are there WILL be serious injuries to teams, but it’s hard to know whether we’ll manage to be the team to slide in.

Hard to accept but this could end up another tanking year.

[theBigLip]

Yeah, barring major injuries it is hard to see us cracking into the top 9.

Of course, chances are there WILL be serious injuries to teams, but it’s hard to know whether we’ll manage to be the team to slide in.

Hard to accept but this could end up another tanking year.

Agreed. Looking at the “play in” teams, it will be hard for Detroit to get a better record. One more tank is probably the last time we’ll do that for quite awhile.

[tmorgan]

Not hard to accept at all — it IS another tanking year, purposefully. You don’t draft a raw 18-year-old, punt your cap space forward a year, tell a starter to get ready to switch positions, and more if you’re trying to make the playoffs.

If we do it anyway, which is unlikely but possible, it just means we’re ahead of schedule with all these youngsters we’re playing. If not, lottery pick to add a legit forward. All good.

[NYPiston]

Wouldn't suprise me if the Magic and Pacers roster played well together. Magic have a ton of young talent and the Pacers still have a very solid team.

Pistons still dont know what the have in Ivey who will be the real difference maker. Plus Bey and Stewart need to play like they did at their best, but for a whole season.

I still have Pistons battling for among the worst teams.

They do? They're one of the worst teams in the east
The Magic have just as much, if not more, question marks than the Pistons. Who is their go to guy?

I see the east in some pretty clear tiers

Tier 1 (contenders)
Milwaukee (who will be on a mission this year)
Boston
Philly
Miami
Nets (lets just assume that they are relatively healthy and sane in the case of Kyrie for most of the season)

Tier 2 (playoff teams, play in at minimum)
Atlanta
Cleveland
Toronto

Tier 3 (treadmill, play in fodder)
Charlotte
Washington
New York

Tier 4 (lottery bound)
Indiana
Detroit
Orlando

Tier 2 is closer to Tier 1 than they are to Tier 3, I could see Atlanta or Cleveland making the jump.
Tier 3 is as iron clad as it gets. Those 3 teams are the definition of mediocre.
You never know with young teams but Tier 4 seems pretty locked in as well.

One more tank year for Detroit which is better in the long term when you see how steep the jump is in a vastly improved east. Keep building that talent base then strike in free agency or trade.
This is a win win year. If the Pistons compete for the play in it will be driven by the young core, and if they finish high in the lotter again, they add another core piece in a stacked draft (hopefully a wing) and have a wealth of cap space to work with going forward. Win....Win.

[zeebneeb]

Wouldn't suprise me if the Magic and Pacers roster played well together. Magic have a ton of young talent and the Pacers still have a very solid team.

Pistons still dont know what the have in Ivey who will be the real difference maker. Plus Bey and Stewart need to play like they did at their best, but for a whole season.

I still have Pistons battling for among the worst teams.

They do? They're one of the worst teams in the east
The Magic have just as much, if not more, question marks than the Pistons. Who is their go to guy?

I see the east in some pretty clear tiers

Tier 1 (contenders)
Milwaukee (who will be on a mission this year)
Boston
Philly
Miami
Nets (lets just assume that they are relatively healthy and sane in the case of Kyrie for most of the season)

Tier 2 (playoff teams, play in at minimum)
Atlanta
Cleveland
Toronto

Tier 3 (treadmill, play in fodder)
Charlotte
Washington
New York

Tier 4 (lottery bound)
Indiana
Detroit
Orlando

Tier 2 is closer to Tier 1 than they are to Tier 3, I could see Atlanta or Cleveland making the jump.
Tier 3 is as iron clad as it gets. Those 3 teams are the definition of mediocre.
You never know with young teams but Tier 4 seems pretty locked in as well.

One more tank year for Detroit which is better in the long term when you see how steep the jump is in a vastly improved east. Keep building that talent base then strike in free agency or trade.
This is a win win year. If the Pistons compete for the play in it will be driven by the young core, and if they finish high in the lotter again, they add another core piece in a stacked draft (hopefully a wing) and have a wealth of cap space to work with going forward. Win....Win.

I am super high on Cade having a huge jump this season, very similar to the players he is similar to.(Doncic, LeBron, e.t.c.)

That means, in your tiers, I have them at the top of 3 in your tier system.

Now I recognize a bunch of different things could happen, and change that, but all things being equal, this is year three for Hayes, Stewart, and Bey. Second year for the franchise Cade, and first year for both Ivey, and Duren. The team is now void of g-league players, and filled with actual productive players like;

Olynyk
Noel
Burks
Bagley
Livers
Diallo

I fully expect that Saben Lee is gone before season start.

This team is going to be good this year.

I fully expect the Pistons this year to win at least 10 more games then last, amd perhaps even a bunch more.

[bstein14]

Wouldn't suprise me if the Magic and Pacers roster played well together. Magic have a ton of young talent and the Pacers still have a very solid team.

Pistons still dont know what the have in Ivey who will be the real difference maker. Plus Bey and Stewart need to play like they did at their best, but for a whole season.

I still have Pistons battling for among the worst teams.

They do? They're one of the worst teams in the east
The Magic have just as much, if not more, question marks than the Pistons. Who is their go to guy?

I see the east in some pretty clear tiers

Tier 1 (contenders)
Milwaukee (who will be on a mission this year)
Boston
Philly
Miami
Nets (lets just assume that they are relatively healthy and sane in the case of Kyrie for most of the season)

Tier 2 (playoff teams, play in at minimum)
Atlanta
Cleveland
Toronto

Tier 3 (treadmill, play in fodder)
Charlotte
Washington
New York

Tier 4 (lottery bound)
Indiana
Detroit
Orlando

Tier 2 is closer to Tier 1 than they are to Tier 3, I could see Atlanta or Cleveland making the jump.
Tier 3 is as iron clad as it gets. Those 3 teams are the definition of mediocre.
You never know with young teams but Tier 4 seems pretty locked in as well.

One more tank year for Detroit which is better in the long term when you see how steep the jump is in a vastly improved east. Keep building that talent base then strike in free agency or trade.
This is a win win year. If the Pistons compete for the play in it will be driven by the young core, and if they finish high in the lotter again, they add another core piece in a stacked draft (hopefully a wing) and have a wealth of cap space to work with going forward. Win....Win.

I am super high on Cade having a huge jump this season, very similar to the players he is similar to.(Doncic, LeBron, e.t.c.)

That means, in your tiers, I have them at the top of 3 in your tier system.

Now I recognize a bunch of different things could happen, and change that, but all things being equal, this is year three for Hayes, Stewart, and Bey. Second year for the franchise Cade, and first year for both Ivey, and Duren. The team is now void of g-league players, and filled with actual productive players like;

Olynyk
Noel
Burks
Bagley
Livers
Diallo

I fully expect that Saben Lee is gone before season start.

This team is going to be good this year.

I fully expect the Pistons this year to win at least 10 more games then last, amd perhaps even a bunch more.

Bagley doesn't help his team win while out on the floor, at least he hasn't yet in his career. We'll see how this year goes with a bigger payday and more stable role.

Diallo is a solid bench player, Burks is a solid bench player, Livers is a solid bench player... One of those guys will likely start. Hayes is pretty much a G League guy based on what we've seen from him the past two seasons. Duren also is unlikely to play winning basketball at this point.

Starters:
Cade = Above average starter
Bey = Close to Average starter
Stewart = Below average starter
Ivey = Below average starter (at least for the start of his rookie career)
Livers, Burks, or Bagley = Below average starter
-----
Overall our starting lineup is pretty bad compared to league average.... largely because we're still so young.

Our "could" be really solid, but it depends on how it plays out. If Hayes is playing in the rotation we'll be worse than if CoJo is playing off the bench. The overall combination on the bench of Hayes, Diallo, Bagley, Duren is likely to be really bad shooting so its hard to say just how effective that unit will be. But Burks, CoJo, Olynyk, Livers could be a really solid group of shooters to put around someone like Duren if that were to be the bench unit.

[Manocad]

My prediction?

PAIN.

[NYPiston]

I am super high on Cade having a huge jump this season, very similar to the players he is similar to.(Doncic, LeBron, e.t.c.)

That means, in your tiers, I have them at the top of 3 in your tier system.

Now I recognize a bunch of different things could happen, and change that, but all things being equal, this is year three for Hayes, Stewart, and Bey. Second year for the franchise Cade, and first year for both Ivey, and Duren. The team is now void of g-league players, and filled with actual productive players like;

Olynyk
Noel
Burks
Bagley
Livers
Diallo

I fully expect that Saben Lee is gone before season start.

This team is going to be good this year.

I fully expect the Pistons this year to win at least 10 more games then last, amd perhaps even a bunch more.

I wouldn't completely discount the Pistons making the jump to play in competitor (roughly 35-38 wins or so) because, just like you, I'm bullish on Cade but they are simply way too young to expect much quite yet and they've only gotten younger this offseason. I think Weaver recognizes that this is another development year so any significant jump in the standings would be a bonus but realistically, this is still a bottom 3 team in the east depending on injuries etc. Outside of the bottom tier, Charlotte, Washington and the Knicks are the only teams they have a shot at passing and I think passing any of those 3 teams is a longshot this season.

Regardless, it should be a fun team to watch. This is really the last season where they have nothing to lose so I think we should enjoy it before the pressure to win starts to kick in the season after. Similar to the Lions in a lot of ways, kind of funny how the timelines of both teams are following a very similar path although I'm more bullish on the Pistons long term outlook because they have the true franchise player and a boatload of flexibility to add a lot in the coming years.

[zeebneeb]

They do? They're one of the worst teams in the east
The Magic have just as much, if not more, question marks than the Pistons. Who is their go to guy?

I see the east in some pretty clear tiers

Tier 1 (contenders)
Milwaukee (who will be on a mission this year)
Boston
Philly
Miami
Nets (lets just assume that they are relatively healthy and sane in the case of Kyrie for most of the season)

Tier 2 (playoff teams, play in at minimum)
Atlanta
Cleveland
Toronto

Tier 3 (treadmill, play in fodder)
Charlotte
Washington
New York

Tier 4 (lottery bound)
Indiana
Detroit
Orlando

Tier 2 is closer to Tier 1 than they are to Tier 3, I could see Atlanta or Cleveland making the jump.
Tier 3 is as iron clad as it gets. Those 3 teams are the definition of mediocre.
You never know with young teams but Tier 4 seems pretty locked in as well.

One more tank year for Detroit which is better in the long term when you see how steep the jump is in a vastly improved east. Keep building that talent base then strike in free agency or trade.
This is a win win year. If the Pistons compete for the play in it will be driven by the young core, and if they finish high in the lotter again, they add another core piece in a stacked draft (hopefully a wing) and have a wealth of cap space to work with going forward. Win....Win.

I am super high on Cade having a huge jump this season, very similar to the players he is similar to.(Doncic, LeBron, e.t.c.)

That means, in your tiers, I have them at the top of 3 in your tier system.

Now I recognize a bunch of different things could happen, and change that, but all things being equal, this is year three for Hayes, Stewart, and Bey. Second year for the franchise Cade, and first year for both Ivey, and Duren. The team is now void of g-league players, and filled with actual productive players like;

Olynyk
Noel
Burks
Bagley
Livers
Diallo

I fully expect that Saben Lee is gone before season start.

This team is going to be good this year.

I fully expect the Pistons this year to win at least 10 more games then last, amd perhaps even a bunch more.

Bagley doesn't help his team win while out on the floor, at least he hasn't yet in his career. We'll see how this year goes with a bigger payday and more stable role.

Diallo is a solid bench player, Burks is a solid bench player, Livers is a solid bench player... One of those guys will likely start. Hayes is pretty much a G League guy based on what we've seen from him the past two seasons. Duren also is unlikely to play winning basketball at this point.

Starters:
Cade = Above average starter
Bey = Close to Average starter
Stewart = Below average starter
Ivey = Below average starter (at least for the start of his rookie career)
Livers, Burks, or Bagley = Below average starter
-----
Overall our starting lineup is pretty bad compared to league average.... largely because we're still so young.

Our "could" be really solid, but it depends on how it plays out. If Hayes is playing in the rotation we'll be worse than if CoJo is playing off the bench. The overall combination on the bench of Hayes, Diallo, Bagley, Duren is likely to be really bad shooting so its hard to say just how effective that unit will be. But Burks, CoJo, Olynyk, Livers could be a really solid group of shooters to put around someone like Duren if that were to be the bench unit.

I disagree with everything.

Basically everything you said, but all plus 1, or even 2.

[tmorgan]

I will say this: I disagree with some of it and agree with some of it, but any system of measurement that has Bey as an average starter and Stewart as a below average starter is wrong. Pointz is not the end all goal of an NBA player, particularly inefficient points. Stew is a VASTLY better defender, and while Bey is a better offensive player, he’s wildly inconsistent and generally inefficient (thus far).

[breezypeezy]

"By the end of the season" is my metric of how good we will be.
Im not as concerned with the overall standings, im wanting to see how good weve become by post All Star.
Post All Star I will be hoping we will be able to knock off some of those "Tier 2" teams regularly.
I just dont have much fear of the Knicks, Pacers, Wizards( or whatever they call themselves) and can see us surpassing them within a season if were healthy.

So yeah we will start out real green and not have a great record for the season, but how far we improve is my main metric.

With Cade, Ivey and Duren im putting the sky as our limit with another good draft and a F.A. added to the mix.
The course was pretty much set when the capspace got punted ahead a season.

[Manocad]

One more tank year for Detroit which is better in the long term when you see how steep the jump is in a vastly improved east. Keep building that talent base then strike in free agency or trade.
This is a win win year. If the Pistons compete for the play in it will be driven by the young core, and if they finish high in the lotter again, they add another core piece in a stacked draft (hopefully a wing) and have a wealth of cap space to work with going forward. Win....Win.

What's the in-between? It's not like the only possibilities are 20-25 wins (which I don't think is going to happen) or running up on 40 wins and the playoffs. What about 34 wins and the 9th draft pick, also a possibility?

I think people try to read too much into what the team's goal is for this season, as if every action is either trying to win every individual game at all costs (push for the playoffs) or losing every individual game at all costs (tanking). If two seasons of Weaver being in charge have showed anything thus far it's that he clearly has a plan of building a team geared for sustainable long term success. And that means building through the draft and taking chances on young players who may blossom here (read: basically nearly an entire team in the same age range), which he's done. What that does not mean is retooling on the fly/overpaying for the hot free agent du jour in order to rush to the playoffs, which he hasn't done and has explicitly said he's not going to do. So in all seriousness my prediction is that this season is going to play out with no specific goal other than to continue to improve the team--give the young guys minutes to develop, rest them if they're frustrated/struggling and need a break, and whatever happens, happens. I personally think they're too good to wind up with another shot at a top four draft pick and not good enough to make any noise in the playoffs if they managed to sneak in, so there's no point in either of those being a goal IMO.

So 30-35 wins, no playoffs, and somewhere around the 9th draft pick. Which I'm fine with; it's part of the process.

[bstein14]

I will say this: I disagree with some of it and agree with some of it, but any system of measurement that has Bey as an average starter and Stewart as a below average starter is wrong. Pointz is not the end all goal of an NBA player, particularly inefficient points. Stew is a VASTLY better defender, and while Bey is a better offensive player, he’s wildly inconsistent and generally inefficient (thus far).

Hopefully by the end of the season both Bey and Stewart are average or slightly above average starters for their position)

1. Tatum
2. KD
3. Leonard
4. LeBron
5. Butler
6. George
7. Ingrahm
8. DeMarr
9. Middleton
10. Mikal Bridges
11. Andrew Wiggins
12. OG
13. Porter Jr (assuming healthy)
-------
This is where you can start looking at Bey, in the 14-18 range... just about average.
RJ Barret, Keldon Johnson, Bey, Bogdanovic, Herb Jones(Elite D as a rookie last season)

For Stewart, a lot depends on whether or not you place him with PFs or Cs as I think the PF spot has more depth of talent (although center is better at the top). Do you put Stewart in the general area of 17-22 along with guys like Mitchell Robinson, Holmes, Nurkic, Poetl, Carter Jr, Porzingas. If Stewart adds that consistent pick and pop 3 point shot he'll certainly climb the list.

[NYPiston]

What's the in-between? It's not like the only possibilities are 20-25 wins (which I don't think is going to happen) or running up on 40 wins and the playoffs. What about 34 wins and the 9th draft pick, also a possibility?

I think people try to read too much into what the team's goal is for this season, as if every action is either trying to win every individual game at all costs (push for the playoffs) or losing every individual game at all costs (tanking). If two seasons of Weaver being in charge have showed anything thus far it's that he clearly has a plan of building a team geared for sustainable long term success. And that means building through the draft and taking chances on young players who may blossom here (read: basically nearly an entire team in the same age range), which he's done. What that does not mean is retooling on the fly/overpaying for the hot free agent du jour in order to rush to the playoffs, which he hasn't done and has explicitly said he's not going to do. So in all seriousness my prediction is that this season is going to play out with no specific goal other than to continue to improve the team--give the young guys minutes to develop, rest them if they're frustrated/struggling and need a break, and whatever happens, happens. I personally think they're too good to wind up with another shot at a top four draft pick and not good enough to make any noise in the playoffs if they managed to sneak in, so there's no point in either of those being a goal IMO.

So 30-35 wins, no playoffs, and somewhere around the 9th draft pick. Which I'm fine with; it's part of the process.

That's pretty much what I said. I said it's a win win season whether they're competing for a play in or finishing in the lottery again.
I don't think Weaver cares as much about wins and losses as he does about the process, incremental improvements with a team that is showing internal growth. If it leads to more wins, great, and if it leads to a bunch of close losses as the young guys continue to grow and learn the hard lessons, that's fine too. I think the only unacceptable outcome would be a team that's stagnating not only in the win/loss column but also in terms of individual development.

Either way, Weaver has a clear plan. One more development year then I think next offseason he will make bigger moves to supplement the core with an eye towards the playoffs the season after.

[zeebneeb]

I will say this: I disagree with some of it and agree with some of it, but any system of measurement that has Bey as an average starter and Stewart as a below average starter is wrong. Pointz is not the end all goal of an NBA player, particularly inefficient points. Stew is a VASTLY better defender, and while Bey is a better offensive player, he’s wildly inconsistent and generally inefficient (thus far).

Hopefully by the end of the season both Bey and Stewart are average or slightly above average starters for their position)

1. Tatum
2. KD
3. Leonard
4. LeBron
5. Butler
6. George
7. Ingrahm
8. DeMarr
9. Middleton
10. Mikal Bridges
11. Andrew Wiggins
12. OG
13. Porter Jr (assuming healthy)
-------
This is where you can start looking at Bey, in the 14-18 range... just about average.
RJ Barret, Keldon Johnson, Bey, Bogdanovic, Herb Jones(Elite D as a rookie last season)

For Stewart, a lot depends on whether or not you place him with PFs or Cs as I think the PF spot has more depth of talent (although center is better at the top). Do you put Stewart in the general area of 17-22 along with guys like Mitchell Robinson, Holmes, Nurkic, Poetl, Carter Jr, Porzingas. If Stewart adds that consistent pick and pop 3 point shot he'll certainly climb the list.

Herb Jones is a player I would trade some pieces for. He would be amazing here at the PF position.

[coolness]

Holy crap that Washington is a dark horse Wemby/Scoot candidate. Maybe not even "dark horse." Note: I don't know how the heck they were good enough to only get the 10th pick of 2022, so grain of salt.

And we are very unlikely to get an exiciting pick. Sad. Maybe we'll get a "sure thing" with a lower ceiling and he'll surprise people.