RealGM

Well, it's that time of year again, the NBA draft Lottery. The Ping-Pong balls of destiny.

When-Tuesday May 16th

Where-ESPN 8PM

ODDS

Pistons;

#1 14.0%
#2 13.4%
#3 12.7%
#4 12.0%
#5 47.9%

Rest of the teams odds;

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Pistons pick history;

CURRENT-Lottery(top 5 guaranteed)and #31

2022-#5,#13,#36
2021-#1,#42,#52,#57
2020-#7,#16,#19,#38
2019-#15,#37,#57

Rest of Pistons historical picks;

https://www.tankathon.com/pistons

(Scroll down)

I'll keep this updated with any, and all relevant information as it becomes available. If you want me to add anything, just let me know.

Edit*

How does the lottery work?

"Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 will be placed in a lottery machine. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection. Before the lottery, 1,000 of those 1,001 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating lottery teams. The lottery machine is manufactured by the Smart Play Company, a leading manufacturer of state lottery machines throughout the United States. Smart Play also weighs, measures and certifies the ping-pong balls before the drawing.

The drawing process occurs in the following manner: All 14 balls are placed in the lottery machine and they are mixed for 20 seconds, and then the first ball is removed. The remaining balls are mixed in the lottery machine for another 10 seconds, and then the second ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the third ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the fourth ball is drawn. The team that has been assigned that combination will receive the No. 1 pick. The same process is repeated with the same ping-pong balls and lottery machine for the second through fourth picks."

https://www.nba.com/news/nba-draft-lottery-explainer

*Edit-Big Benny Wallace will be representing the Pistons at the lottery again. #1 locked!

#1 pick is franchise changing, but I'll be happy with 2 or 3 as well. Wherever we end up, Weaver really needs to make the right pick on this one..... we can't afford to have this pick just be a fringe rotation player or solid bench guy(7th or 8th guy in a rotation). We at worst need someone who's a good starter playing winning basketball by year 3 or 4 here.

Not expecting the #1 but just hoping to land in the top 3

4 or 5 and they're taking one of the Thompson twins to pair with coach Ollie. You all know this to be true.

Speak of the NBA lottery format. It's bogus that the team that finishes last has a 50/50 shot essentially of dropping to 5. Yeah yeah, they don't want to encourage tanking but the new lottery odds haven't changed a thing in that respect.
The NHL format where the bottom team has a 25% chance of landing and can't fall lower than 3 is a more reasonable lottery format.

NYPiston wrote:4 or 5 and they're taking one of the Thompson twins to pair with coach Ollie. You all know this to be true.

Speak of the NBA lottery format. It's bogus that the team that finishes last has a 50/50 shot essentially of dropping to 5. Yeah yeah, they don't want to encourage tanking but the new lottery odds haven't changed a thing in that respect.
The NHL format where the bottom team has a 25% chance of landing and can't fall lower than 3 is a more reasonable lottery format.

I agree about the lottery odds, they are absolutely asinine.

As for the Twins, I've said it before, but I loathe to think the Pistons end up with one of these soon-to-be duds. Coming from a joke league, and neither can shoot the damn ball.(their form is wretched as well)Adding the head of coaches from that league will be the nail in the coffin for me.

If that happens, my brain may explode.

Damn, I'm nervous about this, but the Pistons have put themselves in the best mathematical possibility of getting the top pick that they can. That's all you can really ask for as a fan in this situation. Beats all those years of picking in the 7-10 range.

How much would you guys pay to win the lottery? We will say the money goes to charity and the basketball gods smile and grant us Victor. For me it’s about 2% of my yearly take home. The. I go buy season tickets to celebrate lol

Ok, anyone who didn't pick #1 needs to GTFO with your negative energy.

I'm praying for at least top 3. If we can't get wembanyama I really want Brandon Miller.

Sent from my SM-A528B using RealGM mobile app

Went with the odds and chose #5.

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/lottery_results

Past lottery results

#1 hasn’t won since the new lottery in 4 years. It also hasn’t dropped more than 2 spots since the new Lottery. So the projection is we get #3 which is typical but mentally you have to think #1 so I stick with that result.

Damn, near 50 percent to fall to 5? You all know darn well that's what will happen I predict it's all fixed and the league wants Wemby to go to the Spurs. The league wants the Spurs and Pops back near the top and they will make sure Spurs get the top pick.

They hate the Pistons and only gave us Cade because it had been like, 53 years since we had gotten the top pick. So yeah, if it's fixed, Spurs get Wemby and we fall to at least 4.

You guys need to stop torturing yourselves. If it happens, it happens.

I think there is still some confusion about the odds for some. Our most likely outcome is not pick 5. Our most likely outcome is somewhere between pick 1-4.

Just because pick 5 has the highest individual odds of any pick doesn’t make it the most likely outcome.

I’m going number 1, we have tied the highest odds of any team to win it, so why not us.

Need top 3 (my pick)
1 - we get Victor
2 - we swap Scoot w ORL for their 2lotto picks
3 - we get Miller

I can’t wait to watch the lottery!!!

Pistonrings wrote:Damn, near 50 percent to fall to 5? You all know darn well that's what will happen I predict it's all fixed and the league wants Wemby to go to the Spurs. The league wants the Spurs and Pops back near the top and they will make sure Spurs get the top pick.

They hate the Pistons and only gave us Cade because it had been like, 53 years since we had gotten the top pick. So yeah, if it's fixed, Spurs get Wemby and we fall to at least 4.

Or do they wanna give it to the Hornets to get a bigger sale for the team?

I'm just hoping for a top 3 pick. Wemby, Scoot or Miller would be awesome on this team.

League will not allow us to get a top 3 pick this year after the sexual harassment allegations. Bad look for the league.

tmorgan wrote:You guys need to stop torturing yourselves. If it happens, it happens.

i was in the mindset the we "needed" the #1 pick in the cade draft. with cade, the potential of ivey/duren and stewart helping out i'm much more in the "if it happens, it happens" mentality. we're guaranteed a top 5 pick so we're going to get a good prospect to add to the team, even if we miss out on VW.

The Moose wrote:I think there is still some confusion about the odds for some. Our most likely outcome is not pick 5. Our most likely outcome is somewhere between pick 1-4.

Just because pick 5 has the highest individual odds of any pick doesn’t make it the most likely outcome.

I’m going number 1, we have tied the highest odds of any team to win it, so why not us.

i don't think there's confusion, the poll lists each individual pick and pick 5 is by far the most likely (48% vs. 14% or lower).

whitehops wrote:

tmorgan wrote:You guys need to stop torturing yourselves. If it happens, it happens.

i was in the mindset the we "needed" the #1 pick in the cade draft. with cade, the potential of ivey/duren and stewart helping out i'm much more in the "if it happens, it happens" mentality. we're guaranteed a top 5 pick so we're going to get a good prospect to add to the team, even if we miss out on VW.

The Moose wrote:I think there is still some confusion about the odds for some. Our most likely outcome is not pick 5. Our most likely outcome is somewhere between pick 1-4.

Just because pick 5 has the highest individual odds of any pick doesn’t make it the most likely outcome.

I’m going number 1, we have tied the highest odds of any team to win it, so why not us.

i don't think there's confusion, the poll lists each individual pick and pick 5 is by far the most likely (48% vs. 14% or lower).

fair, my post wasn't really directed at anyone specifically in this thread, I've just seen it a lot recently that people are seeing the 14/13.4/12.7/12.0/47.9 odds distribution and determining that it means our mostly likely outcome is picking fifth