Getting a baseline.

[zeebneeb]

My reaction to the draft was gloomy, no doubt about it. So I'm trying to gage where everyone is at going into next season. Now I know that free agency is a thing, but with what's out there, barring some kind of blockbuster trade, whomever Weaver lands, isn't going to swing the team to 50 wins.

Trying to look at the team objectively, how many wins next season?

Stipulation:

1.Team is healthy. Not perfect health, but no player is out for an entire season again.

That's it.

I hate the teams current options for the starting lineup, in terms of expected shooting. It really is dreary looking if Twin starts.

Cade
Ivey
Twin
Stewart
Duren

If you insert Bojan at the 3, or even the 4, the teams defense takes a major hit.

I love the bench, as it's been the only consistent thing over the past few years. It can out points on the board. I also love Cade, as I firmly believe he is going to be an all-nba type (23/7/7)

Got a ton to go through, but quick summery;

Healthy Cade, second year Duren/Ivey, new coach.

My high end expectations are 33 wins, low end, 23.

[bstein14]

A few weeks too early as we have to wait and see if we land a good starter in FA or just eat some contracts. Right now with the new coach and Wizards tanking I feel like we are about 30 wins and 13th or 14th in the east but it could be higher after FA.

[theBigLip]

I went w 35 wins. Last year should have been 25-30 until we got killed by injuries. 40 would actually get us in the playoffs, and I think we are just not quite there yet.

But as BStein just pointed out, a lot could happen in free agency. We could pick up salary dumps for future assets, which wouldn’t help this year (example Fournier and get our FRP back). Or we could get salary dumps that have significant talent (Hunter, Poole). Or we could just get some guys we really want (Cam Johnson, role players like Bruce Brown, etc). I think free agency is more impactful than the draft, so we should have a better idea in a couple of weeks.

[mattao313]

With the team now like 25 wins imo

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[whitehops]

still super early, and most of the player movement this off season will be through trades, not free agency and it's so hard to predict those with all the possibilities.

i picked 30 wins trending upwards but really that means nothing because so much can change between now and the season. also we don't know what cade is going to look like when he comes back, i think barring some big acquisition that's the biggest swing factor for the success of the team.

[mike06181]

I picked 35 wins.. 3 guys going into 2nd full season are the 3 most important players for the future. That 2nd year improvement should be good for 10-15 wins alone over last yrs record.

[aad]

I went with 35 wins with Cade last year we would have won 30

If we have a healthier season with the roster currently as is 35 can go up depending on what happens in free agency

[vege]

Still too early, but right now I'm with mattao313. 25 wins. Probably close to another 11-22 start, a few more wins because of the hype of the new coach.

When is the next draft? Who's going to play next year's summer league, do we have a chance of a summer league championship? Untill something really change, that's who we are.

Drafting the hybrid between Stanley Johnson and Hamidou Diallo is not going to change it.

[chrbal]

25-30 or so wins. Offseason hasn’t even started.

[MotownMadness]

30 seems about right.The only way you could have as bad of a season as we did last year is if thats what you're trying to do.

[Spider156]

I am going with 27-30 wins just from Cade being healthy. I think the coach alone can get us over 30 but I’m not trying to overexpect. I just want improvement and anywhere around 30 wins is improvement.

The problem isn’t the twin. The problem is Cade. If he’s not shooting a 36%+ from 3 then he will not be all-nba player. All the pressure should be on Cade right now not the rookie. The next pressure is Duren because he’s the single handed player that can tremendously change our defense because I know with Cade Ivey and Thompson the perimeter is pretty good.

The pressure is all on Cade staying healthy right now. You wanted to be first pick? You better play! If he gets hurt my view on Cade might completely change. Right now I have two jerseys of his. I won’t burn them but I don’t care for an unavailable player. It’s the reason I liked Drummond because he was so durable. Cade? If he doesn’t play then we’re tanking again and I’d rather find a new franchise player. I love him, but he’s gonna cost 38m a year. I’d consider trading him. Availability is king.

[guldakot]

Ill be nice and say it wasn't the ideal draft I was hoping for, but I will stand by my prediction that the pistons will win right around 35 games and at least be in the conversation for the playin. I expect an SGA sized jump from Cade, a decent year 2 jump from Ivey, a substantial jump from Stewart (35 percent from 3) and Duran to start looking like Dwight Howard out there. We will have a fantastic bench, the biggest issue I see from this team is scoring (obviously) but our defense should be massively improved.

I am also expecting to pick up one of Grant/Grant/Johnson/Collins here in the off season. If Dame demands a trade I think its a near lock that Jerami Grant is back in a Pistons uniform next year.

[tmorgan]

Went with 30.

[Mr Peanut]

Free agency and health obviously important, but expecting a 30-35 win total. The league overall seems more competitive now - is there any team besides the Wizards that will be properly tanking next year? Almost every win will not come easy.

[440BB]

Considering how many players we sat out to accumulate losses last season, that was more of a 25+ win team if they had played to win. I see 35 wins assuming decent health and development.

[NYPiston]

Can't really answer this question until after free agency.

In general though, assuming a healthy Cade, 30 wins has to be the baseline. 30-35

[Pharaoh]

Yeah not gonna answer this until free agency is done.

IF you assume we could have got 20-25 wins last season without the tanking then you'd assume 30 wins with Cade, Ausar, Sasser & Monty added plus development from Duren, Ivey & Stewart.

IF we sign or trade for 2 or 3 capable players we can talk about anything above that level.

We're in desperate need of wings still regardless of how you view Ausar cause he's a rookie.

At the 4: Stewart, Bojan, Bagley are reasonable but when you look around the league and see the people they have to go up against it's obvious we need more here

At the 3: Ausar, Bojan, Livers are also reasonable (assuming Ausar has normal rookie issues) and we need more.

It's why I'm willing to throw 30 mil at Cam Johnson and hope the Nets don't match. He can play the 3 or 4 depending on how you want to stagger minutes and can do a lot of things we really need.

Duren 32 - Stewart 16
Cam 30 - Stewart 10 - Bojan 8
Ausar 28 - Bojan 20

Looks a whole lot better than

Duren 32 - Wiseman 16
Stewart 26 - Bagley 14 - Bojan 8
Ausar 28 - Bojan 20

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[Cowology]

40-44 range. Cade is a legit franchise player when healthy. You basically need to take everything you think you know about last season and throw it away because it's an entirely different dynamic with Cade in the lineup.

Shooting is a concern, but again I sorta go back to Cade; dude makes things easier for everybody else. Bogey will see a lot more clean looks as will the rest of our guys. And we just need Cade/Ivey to be OK. Don't have to be great, just respectable and I think both guys can do that.

We're going to have a fresh voice on the bench and an energized & hungry team. Still super young with a lot of room for growth, but the team is going to take a big step fwd with healthy Cade and new coach.

[zeebneeb]

40-44 range. Cade is a legit franchise player when healthy. You basically need to take everything you think you know about last season and throw it away because it's an entirely different dynamic with Cade in the lineup.

Shooting is a concern, but again I sorta go back to Cade; dude makes things easier for everybody else. Bogey will see a lot more clean looks as will the rest of our guys. And we just need Cade/Ivey to be OK. Don't have to be great, just respectable and I think both guys can do that.

We're going to have a fresh voice on the bench and an energized & hungry team. Still super young with a lot of room for growth, but the team is going to take a big step fwd with healthy Cade and new coach.

Optimistic! I can't muster up any of that myself after having been witness to the past few seasons, but I would love for this to happen.

I also believe in Cade as a real franchise level player, but even then, the roster construction so far is pretty damn rough, and I'm not sure he'll be able to overcome it, or work with it.

I'd also like to address those mentioning free agency;

Not saying what your saying about it is wrong, I made this thread to see where everyone was at in terms of how they see the current state of the team. Seems my feelings were correct in that sense(right around 30ish wins +/- 3)

With that said, how many people here, honestly feel a real, bona-fide difference maker is going to be landed in free-agency, that it's going to make that big of an impact? My expectations are absurdly low.

I feel the team has zero shot at players like Cam Johnson, or any player on that level. I feel free agency is going to be on the level of signing a player in the realm of a Delon Wright.(not saying him, just that level)

The only way the Pistons are landing a player that could have a major impact, is if a trade happens for them, in my honest assessment of the team.

So far, seems most people expect a moderate jump!

[tmorgan]

A moderate jump to 25-30 is almost a given, given the return of Cade and the career arc of most of the roster. Barring another tragic injury, of course.

A lot depends on who else we acquire and who Monty plays. I’m not sure everyone understands how truly terrible Killian, Bagley and Wiseman are. Hayes mucks up the offense unless he can hit jumpers, which doesn’t happen often. Bagley can’t pass or switch, and neither can Wiseman. Really bad basketball thinkers that will hurt you on both ends, but particularly on defense.

If we do acquire at least one quality wing (thus pushing more of Stew’s minutes to center and limiting the minutes of Wiseman and Bagley to maybe 20/game combined) and actually play Sasser over Killian, we’re going to be a decent team. Not playoff quality barring multiple big development leaps, but decent.