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That 25.5 is way up from 22.5 a couple months ago.

Three teams have lower totals.
Blazers, 22.5
Wizards, 21.5
Nets, 19.5

https://www.oddsshark.com/nba/season-win-total-betting-odds

NBA Win Total To Monitor: Detroit Pistons OVER 25.5 (-110)
Everything that could have gone wrong went wrong for the Detroit Pistons during their 14-68 campaign. They tied the record for the longest-ever losing streak at 28 games, and set a franchise record for futility with a winning percentage of .171.
With that being said, the team has made some offseason adjustments by adding Tobias Harris, Paul Reed, and Malik Beasley to work under new head coach J.B. Bickerstaff, and the young core of Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren, and Jaden Ivey should only improve. Detroit hasn't won at least 26 games since 2019, but this is undoubtedly the best roster its possessed during this stretch which provides some level of confidence and optimism.


* For comparison sake, our number was 26.5 this time last year.

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I think that's a fair assessment.

10+ game improvement due to the vets and a coach who has experience rebuilding young teams

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Soaring Eagle Sportsbook has them at 24.5 for the over/under at the moment.

I think we're a 28-30 win team if we mostly stay healthy and we also try to win out until the end of the season even if we're out of the play-in picture.

Four reasons for improvement this year.

#1 Youth gets better
#2 Coaching is better
#3 Tobias, Beasley and THjr are better vets than we had in the past
#4 Other teams in the East (Nets, Wizards, Bulls and maybe even Toronto at some point) will be tanking more.

That said, I still don't feel great bettering the over because every year someone gets injured and then the excuses come and then we tank down the stretch.

I would say it's generous, but on the other hand the bottom of the East is terrible.

I’ve put several multi’s on for season wins and all with pistons under 25.5

Detroit have added vets, and whilst everything went wrong last season most teams outside of the bottom 4 got better. Duren’s defence isn’t going to miraculously change over one offseason, and all our younger guys are going to shoot 5+% on 3’s from one offseason with Vinson.

I’m the vets we added have shooting but all have flaws too, getting 10 additional wins is an honourable improvement for the team but beyond that I think it’s hopeful at best

i think there will be a big difference this season compared to the last few seasons. i don't know how many extra wins it will add up to but the simple fact that it looks like we're actually trying to compete instead of just "develop" the worst players in the league is a good sign.

if we had a veteran backup PG in place i'd definitely bet on the over, i probably still would but would feel less confident (in case cade gets injured).

You can’t account for injuries either way, but one big one is Duren’s ankles. I truly believe the aggressiveness in his defense suffered because he was playing in pain and worried about getting hurt. That could make a big difference if he holds up better this year.

The biggest difference, however, has already been mentioned — not playing guys that are clearly among the worst players in the NBA. Hayes and Wiseman are horrible, and other guys like Bagley, Knox, and our various G-League call-ups are only a small step above that. Paul Reed, Malik Beasley and THJ have flaws but are several echelons above those bums, and Tobias is a legit above average starter.

Big team improvements will come down to what we get from Cade, Ausar, Duren and Ivey, but the baseline shouldn’t be “worst team in the league” this time. Pretty comfortable with that over, and a prediction of 28-30 wins even without big improvement from the rookie contract guys (which does not account for a potential sell off and tank if deemed appropriate, so there’s still risk in the over bet).

I’ll be honest- I’m taking the under on this.

I hope I’m wrong but that just feels like a bigger improvement than our modest roster changes can make.

I think we’re low 20s.

2024: 14 wins

Offseason moves/changes:
Got rid of Monty: +5 wins
Internal improvement of core: +4 wins
Tobias Harris: +3 wins
Beasley: +2 wins
THJ:+1 wins
Other teams tanking harder this year: +3

Net: + 18 wins


2025 Prediction: 32 wins

30 wins seem doable.

Snakebites wrote:I’ll be honest- I’m taking the under on this.

I hope I’m wrong but that just feels like a bigger improvement than our modest roster changes can make.

I think we’re low 20s.

The roster changes are largely irrelevant. A few mid vets aren't moving the needle much, they've gone from Bogey and Burks to Harris, THJ and Beasley, these are sideways moves. Cade, Ivey, Ausar, Duren and to a lesser extent Stewart, their improvement will almost entirely depend on the development of those 4. Hopefully a coach that actually gives a damn will give a bit of a boost to them too.

If the Pistons are still low 20s with a 5th year Stewart, 4th year Cade, a 3rd year Duren and Ivey and 2nd year Ausar (all with NBA experience now and some significantly so) then these guys just aren't good enough, flat out. Mid 20s at minimum should be the goal. Of course they could win 21-22 wins with a ton of hard luck losses in there but the general point remains, it's time for these guys to start winning some games if reasonably healthy.

NYPiston wrote:

Snakebites wrote:I’ll be honest- I’m taking the under on this.

I hope I’m wrong but that just feels like a bigger improvement than our modest roster changes can make.

I think we’re low 20s.

The roster changes are largely irrelevant. A few mid vets aren't moving the needle much, they've gone from Bogey and Burks to Harris, THJ and Beasley, these are sideways moves. Cade, Ivey, Ausar, Duren and to a lesser extent Stewart, their improvement will almost entirely depend on the development of those 4. Hopefully a coach that actually gives a damn will give a bit of a boost to them too.
If the Pistons are still low 20s with a 5th year Stewart, 4th year Cade, a 3rd year Duren and Ivey and 2nd year Ausar (all with NBA experience now and some significantly so) then these guys just aren't good enough, flat out. Mid 20s at minimum should be the goal.

If you’re including Bojan and Burks as subtractions even though they were gone at the deadline you have to include Fontecchio as an addition.

But yeah. I think our spacing is nominally better which should hopefully help player development, but this team still has a long way to go. I think the over/under is reasonable but I sorta doubt we beat it.

Snakebites wrote:I’ll be honest- I’m taking the under on this.

I hope I’m wrong but that just feels like a bigger improvement than our modest roster changes can make.

I think we’re low 20s.

Part of the problem last year was injuries, the guys they brought in all have a good history of being available I think, this will be a big factor in increasing their win total over the year and stablizing their performance from game to game. I also think some of the Players had stamina issues last year that the increased depth/availability will help, Duren/Cade most obviously were worn out in the second halves of games.

Last year, Cade was the only legit plus NBA starter on the roster. We added another in Tobias. We are counting on internal development from young guys for the rest. It's possible that one or more of them really step up, but it's hard to be optimistic at this point. Is Duren going to lock in defensively? Is ausar going to shoot well enough to be a starter? Is Ivey going to actually stay in front of his man? Those are the "difference making" developments we need to not be a bottom 5 team again. And we aren't talking about incremental improvement. Guys need to be taking big leaps.

Billl wrote:Last year, Cade was the only legit plus NBA starter on the roster. We added another in Tobias. We are counting on internal development from young guys for the rest. It's possible that one or more of them really step up, but it's hard to be optimistic at this point. Is Duren going to lock in defensively? Is ausar going to shoot well enough to be a starter? Is Ivey going to actually stay in front of his man? Those are the "difference making" developments we need to not be a bottom 5 team again. And we aren't talking about incremental improvement. Guys need to be taking big leaps.

Yes, you are correct. Duren, Ivey, and Ausar's development will 100% dictate the direction of this team, and this year will be huge for the aforementioned.
Think about this: As currently constructed, Jaden Ivey is (once again) a single Cade injury away from being "the man" and showcase talent on this team, if he were thrust back into the starting PG role. I'd hate to see Cade go down again for any extended period, but I'd like to see Ivey in a lead guard role again with some of these new guys we've added since last time he had the reigns.

Drwho17 wrote:

Snakebites wrote:I’ll be honest- I’m taking the under on this.

I hope I’m wrong but that just feels like a bigger improvement than our modest roster changes can make.

I think we’re low 20s.

Part of the problem last year was injuries, the guys they brought in all have a good history of being available I think, this will be a big factor in increasing their win total over the year and stablizing their performance from game to game. I also think some of the Players had stamina issues last year that the increased depth/availability will help, Duren/Cade most obviously were worn out in the second halves of games.

Yep, availability is the key. Last year we could have used Monte Morris so badly. The guy never showed up for us. Then immediately played for Minny.
I'm gonna really go against my natural instincts and take the over on this
I'd be very excited if we had a point guard off our bench but alas, my guy Tyus didn't want to come.

Under every year until proven otherwise

He Filled it Up wrote:Under every year until proven otherwise

I am annoyed by how much sense that makes.

With an OK coach and a crap roster (and either rookie or injured Cade), we were winning about 20.

With a crap coach and crap roster, it was 14.

We now have an (at least) OK coach and a better, if still kinda crappy, roster. I’ll be very disappointed with less than 25.

tmorgan wrote:With an OK coach and a crap roster (and either rookie or injured Cade), we were winning about 20.

With a crap coach and crap roster, it was 14.

We now have an (at least) OK coach and a better, if still kinda crappy, roster. I’ll be very disappointed with less than 25.

The Pistons won 23 games in 2021-2022 with a big three of Grant (who missed almost half the season), Bey (who had an abominable first quarter of the season), and rookie Cade; an overall mess of a roster variously featuring three rookies, three reclamation projects, only three consistent rotation players who shot reasonably well from three, and a lot of games missed due to injury; Dwane Casey at the helm; and a deliberate late-season tank.

Last season was a comical catastrophe in almost every respect. The season before wasn't much better, though that roster had quite a bit less talent than even last season's did.