RealGM

Right on last year's actual win total.

https://www.oddsshark.com/nba/season-win-total-betting-odds

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If I had to guess our win total +/- two games either way.... I'd pick 46 (so between 44 and 48 wins on the season). I think we're for sure above 40 (assuming no major injuries) and I think our high end peak is probably 50.... 50 in the East might get us the 3rd seed... last year the Knicks had 51 as the 3rd seed.... I think its pretty likely we end up between the #3 seed and #5 seed in the East. Small step up after a massive step forward last season.

According to this we would be 5th seed behind Cavs Knicks Magic Hawks

Good number. I'll go under, but not confidently. We had a decent amount of roster turnover, and while be relying much more heavily on younger players. I think it's likely that we're a better team at the end of the season but with a slightly worse record.

You know what? I'm feeling adventurous.

Lets go over.

I'm going with a positive 52-30 vibe. Overall I feel the team is better than last year, and the east got worse with 2 of the top teams headed to the lotto.

50 should be the goal. Dunno if they’ll get there, but I see no reason to take the under on 44.5.

Nothing comes easy in this league, we are going to have to fight to win 44+ again. The best case scenario is, with Ivey back and another year of internal development from all our young guys, we win 50.

I'm going big. 54 is my floor. Gotta see the schedule first though, to cement it. Early season success for young teams can snowball into great success.

If the new vets mesh well and the team stays reasonably healthy a 50 win goal should be attainable. Given that so many of the team's core are young, it's reasonable to expect most to improve their overall game. Here at the summer break might as well enjoy a little 'hopium.'

I would choose the under as of now - don't like that PF depth hasn't been addressed. Harris runs hot and cold to essentially play without a PF in his cold/passive games.

60

We went 30-20 over our last 50 games off the season, which extrapolates to 49 wins over an 82 game season. And that was all without Ivey, and Ausar on a minutes restriction for most of it.

Off-season:
Ivey > Schroder
Robinson = Beasley (probably an edge to Beasley, but who knows if he would've been able to put in another >300 3PM season if he returned)
LeVert > THJ

Plus another season of internal development for the young guys. Presuming reasonable health I think 50 wins should be the minimum target.

Mr Peanut wrote:We went 30-20 over our last 50 games off the season, which extrapolates to 49 wins over an 82 game season. And that was all without Ivey, and Ausar on a minutes restriction for most of it.

Off-season:
Ivey > Schroder
Robinson = Beasley (probably an edge to Beasley, but who knows if he would've been able to put in another >300 3PM season if he returned)
LeVert > THJ

Plus another season of internal development for the young guys. Presuming reasonable health I think 50 wins should be the minimum target.

Ivey was having a nice season and was definitely showing improvement. But the fact is, we finished as strong as we did because of Ivey's injury, not in spite of it. Without Ivey's injury, Ausar doesn't move into the starting lineup, which was huge. And without Ivey's injury, we don't pick up Schroder, who provided things to the team that Ivey was not (yet) capable of. We became a better team with the injury.

This is not to say that Ivey is a detriment to the team. Not at all. And his potential is great - here's hoping he really blossoms into an undisputed #2 this season while evolving his floor general capabilities, as well. Ivey is not as good a player as Schroder as of last season. But if he becomes as good or better this season, 50 could be possible.

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Mr Peanut wrote:We went 30-20 over our last 50 games off the season, which extrapolates to 49 wins over an 82 game season. And that was all without Ivey, and Ausar on a minutes restriction for most of it.

Off-season:
Ivey > Schroder
Robinson = Beasley (probably an edge to Beasley, but who knows if he would've been able to put in another >300 3PM season if he returned)
LeVert > THJ

Plus another season of internal development for the young guys. Presuming reasonable health I think 50 wins should be the minimum target.

This is an excellent way of looking at next season. Just base numbers, and logic of players.

Now throw in these tasty little items;

1.)East got weaker, in a huge way. Both Boston and Indiana are toast next season. I'm also seeing a LOT of national guys picking the Knicks to win the East. Ok, is this the same team that the Pistons WOULD have beaten had Stewart been healthy, not to mention Ivey? who just lost their head coach, who rode their ASS to be better players, and replaced him with treadmill Brown? Good luck with that.

2.)Internal development. These guys are super young, and are only getting better.

3.)Ron Holland. You could include this into #2, but if Holland does indeed take a leap, it changes everything. A true 3&D wing will change the entire complexion of the team. If he explodes, and starts alongside Ausar, the Pistons will have two potential all-defense players in the starting lineup. That is absolutely absurd. The switchability of a;

Cade
Ivey
Holland
Ausar

Is off the charts.

4.)Experience/playoffs. This group has now tasted success, and that is a huge motivator. It snowballs into even greater success. OKC is a prime example. Cade/Ivey/Ausar/Duren/Stew all know what losing looks like. They will never want to go back to that.

5.)Picks panning out. It is obviously safe to say that Cade has panned out, and Ausars impact when he's on the floor is insane, and looks like a perennial all-defense player, and future DPOY. Now if Ivey continues his trajectory he began last season, and Duren continues to improve, along with Holland? Good grief. All it would take is ONE of these guys to become an all-star, to really explode the team. To me Ausar is a consistent 30+mpg away from it, and Ivey absolutely can get there if he shoots out of the gate, and continues last season.

6.)Assets. Holy CRAP. The Pistons are loaded with Assets now. All the young players. Own all their picks. Vets on tradeable contracts. Mid-season Langdon will have the ability, if needed to go swing a deal, to land a true #2 next to Cade.


This upcoming season, barring some unforseen cataclysmic disaster, is going to be one for the books.

Now let's see that schedule when it drops here in about a week.

Oh boy, oh boy, OH BOY. (Thats code for #1 seed if everything pans out)

I only see one roster in the East that objectively has more talent than us and that’s the Cavs. I think we’re right there with the Magic, Hawks, and Knicks. Barring catastrophic injuries I think we finish in one of those 2-5 spots. Average wins amongst those seeds the past 15 years is 50.2.

I think Bickerstaff got a lot more ftt re pm his group in Cleveland in the 2nd year, that’s when they took their jump

I think Bickerstaff got a lot more from his group in Cleveland in the 2nd year, that’s when they took their jump

Definitely better.

SuperBad wrote:I think Bickerstaff got a lot more from his group in Cleveland in the 2nd year, that’s when they took their jump

Yes, they made a big jump, but it wasn't the same group. The team was significantly upgraded before the season. Mobley was drafted, Markkanen was acquired, Rubio was acquired, and Allen was in his first full season with the team.