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Let me preface this by saying this isn't a reaction to the Cavs game (didn't even watch it) or any other isolated event. This is something I've been thinking about for a long time.

If the Pistons fail to win a championship it will be because their offense is horrible against good defensive teams.

Our balanced attack and ball movement absolutely shreds poor defensive teams. We have the ability to pick apart teams like Denver or Phx and make them look absolutely foolish. And we seem to execute fairly well against middle of the pack defensive teams as well. But whenever we run up to an elite defensive team they absolutely own our offense.

At some point when I have a bit more time I'll dig through the last 2.5-3 years worth of games against top 5 or 10 defensive teams because I am curious to see exactly what the breakdown is. It seems to me we typically put up somewhere around 80-85 ppg.

A quick glance shows we averaged about 85 ppg against Miami in the '06 ECF. That same year we averaged 86 ppg against Cleveland, but that with us putting 210 pts over the first 2 games where we coasted to easy wins. Over the next 5 games (in which we fell behind in the series 3-2 and were lucky to eek out a close victory in game 6 to force a game 7 in Detroit) we only averaged just 79 ppg. Contrast that to our first round series against Mil in which we averaged 107 ppg.

Or look at what happend last year when we averaged 86 ppg against Cleveland (and that includes an OT game in which we lost 107-109, we averaged 82 ppg in the other 5 games). Or look at what Boston has been able to do to our offense this year holding us to around 82 ppg.

I'm not saying we should be lighting up top tier defensive teams, they are near the top for a reason, but if you can't score more than 85 ppg you are going to have a tough time beating anybody.

This is a big reason for me wanting an elite scorer - I believe we NEED a player capable of generating a good look even when the rest of the offense bogs down. Our ball movement and balance just doesn't cause a lot of problems for teams with good defensive principles and crisp rotations. You need somebody who can break down the defense or draw a double team and we still don't have that.

Thoughts?

^Completely agree. I've noticed this particularly striking development for a while now.

The eye opener for me in all of this was the Cav's playoff series, which pitted two great defensive teams against one another. One team found a way, the other didn't. And I dont think I need to tell you what the difference was.

A few years ago, I really bought into the no star system, loved the idea that we were winning a different way, etc. Its clear that this formula is no longer fitting.

Guys like Kobe and Lebron give you a way out if you can't get your attack going on offense as a team. Without that we have no "way out" when we can't get into a rhythm.

Frankly, broadly speaking, all of this was true even when we won it all (though it seemed like Billups and Rip used to be better at rising up in the clutch at times). The difference then was that our defense was just that good. Even if we could only manage 85 against a good defensive team, we could stifle the other team worse than they got us on a fairly consistent basis. Against good teams, thats just not the case anymore.

Times change, teams change, and while I don't believe we are without hope as is, I DO believe a change needs to be made. If we can't trump our offensive issues with defense, we need another way around it.

^ Yeah, you are spot on about the defensive aspect. We used to be able to win games 79-77. The league has changed and it's tough to gut out those same sort of low scoring games these days.

And I agree it's not hopeless, but I think it is an uphill battle. The important thing is for us to find ways to get easy baskets. Grinding out every possession is a drain both mentally and physically. I think we need to push the ball more off of made baskets, and maybe send more people to the offensive glass.

Fastbreak and 2nd chance pts may be the key to us advancing. We need to start generating some easy baskets.

Eh, I really don't buy into this.

We've grinded out several wins this year, including wins over the Spurs (3rd best PPG allowed in the NBA), Boston (best PPG allowed in the NBA), New Orleans (5th best PPG allowed in the NBA), Houston (4th in PPG allowed), and Dallas (6th overall in PPG allowed).

I believe we are 7-4 against those teams. 6-2 if you don't include Boston.

Now, I'd have to take a look at defensive efficency to get a more accurate picture, but I'm really not seeing the problem here. We still go toe-to-toe with the better defensive teams in the league, and still manage to put forth a pretty solid record.

I don't think it's the no-star system, I think it's Flip's offensive playbook. His ABA offense is basically a philosphy of running alot of options depending on what the defense gives you. With the balance our team has, they should be able to dictate what happens on offense... not let the opposing teams defense dictate what our offense does.

Defensive coachs now know that they could make the Pistons settle for jumpers and hope they miss, which they do. LB had set plays.... no one went iso because they thought they could. And if something didn't work, LB made AN IN-GAME ADJUSTMENT!!!

This team will be the Timberwolves of the East as long as Saunders is coach. He's the one calling the plays, he's the one putting in this idiotic idea that the opposing team should decided how your team plays. He's the one that can't coach this team to the finals.

A lot of the problem has to do with the way we score rather than the defence of the team playing us.

Because we're so balanced we don't wear out any mismatches. The open player shoots. First this creates a high jump shot offence. Second, it doesn't put pressure on the defence to adjust or double team. So we don't catch any mismatches. And we don't signal to the referee that this is our go-to-guy. If he didn't get the bucket something must have happened. Then we start to get the benefit of the doubt.

If we got Rasheed 20 shots or Rip 20-25 shots or hell, even Chauncey then you would see it becomes easier to score for everybody because now somebody gets left open when they double.

We're a ball movement and jump shooting team, good defensive teams stifle our ball movement, meaning our jumpers are more often than not contested.

But hey, we brought in Rodney Stuckey, so this issue was solved in the off-season.

Barring a finals appearance, we need to trade for a one-on-one superstar. Basically what happens with this team is that Jim Leyland of the Tigers is making sure to warn/guard against. When the Tigs made the Cabrera deal Don Mattingly called up Leyland and warned him to make sure all of the batters don't start thinking that somebody else will do all the work. Mattingly said that's what happened in New York.

It's the same with the Pistons, they all assume somebody else will be feeling it that game, and when they get on the floor and realize that everybody thought that way and thus nobody wants to be "the guy" that they are in trouble.

But when our jumpers are falling we can't be beat. (of course that is true for any team in the league, but don't tell the Pistons that, it would get in the way of a good excuse).

Why is everyone jumping on the "We need a superstar" bandwagon again? Didn't we just post victories over San Antonio, New Orleans, and Denver? This team got better by adding better role players, not trading away starters for a superstar.

Did you see how ridiculous the Suns were being about Shawn Marion? Rasheed Wallace, Tayshaun Prince, and our two first rounders? Do you think:

Billups/Hunter
Hamilton/Murray
Marion/Hayes
McDyess/Maxiell
Mohammad/Johnson

is better than our current lineup? The problem is that everyone want's an arm and a leg for a superstar. The likelyhood of us getting a Pau Gasol type deal is slim to none, and slim left the building.

This is the best team we've had since the championship team. The only thing I see holding us back is Flip. Not that I think Flip is a bad coach, I just don't think he's the best at maximizing talent.

When you think about it, Sheed can go one on one with anyone in the league. Same with Billups. Hell, even Rip and Tay are effective when isolated. We just don't run that kind of offense.

Would we be any different if we picked up TMax or AI? That might be cool but I think we need to change our offense more than change our personnel.

For some reason, this team is pretty easy to stop. You put a big guard on Billups, and switch in and out of a zone and its that easy to stop us.

Again, our downfall is Saunders, he cannot make adjustments, at all. It's actually sickening how predictable we are.

If I can tell you what plays are being run and where the ball is going to go, you bet your ass NBA scouts are seeing it.

Master Shake wrote:For some reason, this team is pretty easy to stop. You put a big guard on Billups, and switch in and out of a zone and its that easy to stop us.

Again, our downfall is Saunders, he cannot make adjustments, at all. It's actually sickening how predictable we are.

If I can tell you what plays are being run and where the ball is going to go, you bet your ass NBA scouts are seeing it.

I think the strategy to beat this is to force Sheed into the post. Tell him he cannot under any circumstance just wander out to the 3. Force feed him. Even against good D he can get his shot most of the time. Once it starts to fall, they would have to eventually double team, which would open up the offense more. Yes, I know Ben Wallace was guarding him well most of the time last night, but if Sheed were force fed on every possession, he'd get it rolling.

Or, like in a game last night in which Billups was guarded mostly by West or Jones, Billups should be force fed in the post. Seriously, ditch the offense if things are going badly and take advantage of the mis-matches.

Master Shake wrote:For some reason, this team is pretty easy to stop. You put a big guard on Billups, and switch in and out of a zone and its that easy to stop us.

Again, our downfall is Saunders, he cannot make adjustments, at all. It's actually sickening how predictable we are.

If I can tell you what plays are being run and where the ball is going to go, you bet your ass NBA scouts are seeing it.

+1

theBigLip wrote:we need to change our offense more than change our personnel.

but Sheed WON'T go into to post if you try to force him. he's ALWAYS been like that and you have to take his selfishness/unwillingness to adjust with a grain of salt, especially with such a soft coach.

The most disturbing part is during 4th quarters of close games. This team used to just kill teams in the 4th with execution and defense. Now, it seems to be one of their worst defensive quarters, the offensive completely grinds to a halt, and all we see are isolation plays. We have to have a 10 point lead going into the 4th if we want a win.

The fact is, I really don't think the system this plays in is built for the playoffs. The offense is great when everyone is loose and freewheeling. When it gets tight, it's horrific. And that boils down to Flip Saunders.

Liqourish wrote:I don't think it's the no-star system, I think it's Flip's offensive playbook. His ABA offense is basically a philosphy of running alot of options depending on what the defense gives you. With the balance our team has, they should be able to dictate what happens on offense... not let the opposing teams defense dictate what our offense does.

Got it in one.

This doesn't only apply to our losses either, even our wins are very revealing. We'll win a game because we get hot and shoot high 3 point or jump shot percentages (here's a hint it wont last) or because we run and gun with Denver (in what world is it acceptable to give up 120 points in a non-OT game? in the world where you play to the terms dictated by the other team)

How do we fix this?

-Force feed Sheed in the post
-Make Chauncey go to the rim more stop taking so many jumpers
-Hope Tayshaun grow a pair so he will stop disappearing against good defensive teams
-Tell Rip that he is not Wade and should play less one on one
-Fire Flip?

While the idea of Sheed getting his ass in the post is appealing, I think it's time we accept that just isn't going to happen. Somebody like LB may be able to coax a few more post-ups out of the guy but the reality is he's floated virtually his entire career no matter who the coach was and that isn't likely to change Sheed is who he is.

As for this whole iso thing, I'm not sure I agree that we can iso guys like Billups & Rip consistently. In fact when our guards hold the ball our offense tends to struggle; we're at our best when we are getting movement and balance. The problem is good teams know how to stop that movement.

I'm not saying we shouldn't be taking advantage of mismatches, that is one thing I definitely think we can do more of, but on the whole I don't see going to a more iso-oriented offense as the solution.

It IS true that Flips offense makes us a jump-shooting team though. The offense is designed to take what the defense gives us and that is usually a perimeter shot. We very rarely dictate to other teams what WE want to take. I hate our offense philosophy. I feel it makes us mentally soft. We bend to the will of the defense instead of dictating what we want to take.

HeroicKennedy wrote:Why is everyone jumping on the "We need a superstar" bandwagon again? Didn't we just post victories over San Antonio, New Orleans, and Denver? This team got better by adding better role players, not trading away starters for a superstar.

Did you see how ridiculous the Suns were being about Shawn Marion? Rasheed Wallace, Tayshaun Prince, and our two first rounders? Do you think:

Billups/Hunter
Hamilton/Murray
Marion/Hayes
McDyess/Maxiell
Mohammad/Johnson

is better than our current lineup? The problem is that everyone want's an arm and a leg for a superstar. The likelyhood of us getting a Pau Gasol type deal is slim to none, and slim left the building.

This is the best team we've had since the championship team. The only thing I see holding us back is Flip. Not that I think Flip is a bad coach, I just don't think he's the best at maximizing talent.

San Antonio didnt have Bowen, New Orleans didnt have West, and The Nuggets play NO DEFENSE! So what are you trying to say?

I agree with what Hunter is saying, however, I think its more our coaches fault than us simply needing a superstar on this team. ****... Flip had arguably the best player on the planet in his prime and couldnt win a damn play off series . I dont know what else to say...

Guys, we already know that Flip can get 50 wins each season. He has shown that throughout is career, but he has never shown he can achieve anything in the post season(where ironocally teams step up the defense!) This year will say it all.

On a side note, I want to ask why is it so hard to get easy baskets after time outs? We readily seen lobs to ben for dunks after LBs time outs....

For the last two and half years, while watching Flip coach this team, I have not seen one layup or dunk after a time out! insane.... I guess flips idea of an easy shot is a contested jumper.

^We actually run plays to get Sheed an open 3 out of time outs.