Early 2012 Draft stuff

[Icness]

This started on the Lions board, thought it should migrate here as well...

My insanely premature 2012 first round breakdown:
5 QBs: Luck, Barkley, Landry Jones, Ryan Lindley, Nick Foles
1 RB: Trent Richardson
4 WRs: Justin Blackmon, Ryan Broyles, Alshon Jeffery, Jeff Fuller. I highly doubt Fuller will make the 1st, but he should be in the 1st
6 OL: Kalil, Jonathan Martin, Riley Reiff, Mike Adams, Nate Potter, Kelechi Osemele
3 DE/OLB: Quinton Coples, Brandon Jenkins, Donte Paige-Moss
4 DT: Jerel Worthy, Billy Winn, Montori Hughes, Jared Crick
4 LB: Burfict, Teo, Kuechly, Upshaw
5 CB: Minnifield, Dennard, Jayron Hosley, Dre Kirkpatrick, Cliff Harris

Those are basically ranked within each position

I keep flopping the bottom 5 picks and I've had Tank Carder S/LB TCU, Vinny Curry DE Marshall, Devin Taylor DE South Carolina, Lamichael James RB Oregon, Cyrus Gray RB TAMU, and Mohamed Sanu WR Rutgers in at various times.

[Icness]

FWIW...last year's Mock Draft 1.0:
2011 NFL Mock Draft, Version 1.0
22nd September, 2010 - 10:15 am
Jeff Risdon/RealGM - * Updated 9.23.10

-- I mistakenly forgot to convey Oakland’s pick to New England in v1.0 and that changed a handful of picks in the process. The big loser in that process was Christian Ponder, who at times looks like a top 10 pick and at times looks like a 3rd-4th rounder.

1. Buffalo Bills: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas.
2. Cleveland Browns: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
3. St. Louis Rams: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
4. New England Patriots (from OAK): Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
5. Carolina Panthers: Bruce Carter, OLB, North Carolina
6. Detroit Lions: DeMarcus Love, T, Arkansas
7. Seattle Seahawks: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
8. Tampa Bay Bucs: Daniel Thomas, RB, Kansas State
9. San Francisco 49ers: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
10. Jacksonville Jaguars: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
11. Denver Broncos: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
12. Arizona Cardinals: Travis Lewis, LB, Oklahoma
13. Dallas Cowboys: Anthony Costanzo, T, Boston College
14. Kansas City Chiefs: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
15. Tennessee Titans: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
16. Minnesota Vikings: Nate Solder, T, Colorado
17. New York Giants: Janoris Jenkins, CB, Florida
18. New York Jets: Matt Reynolds, T, BYU
19. Philadelphia Eagles: Rodney Hudson, C, Florida State
20. Baltimore Ravens: Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia
21. Miami Dolphins: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
22. Cincinnati Bengals: Jake Locker, QB, Washington
23. Washington Redskins: Jon Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh
24. Chicago Bears: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
25. Atlanta Falcons: Allen Bailey, DE, Miami FL
26. San Diego Chargers: Marcell Dareus, DE, Alabama
27. Green Bay Packers: Greg Jones, LB, Michigan State
28. Houston Texans: Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
29. New England Patriots: Stefen Wisniewski, C, Penn State
30. New Orleans Saints: Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M
31. Indianapolis Colts: Mike Pouncey, C/G, Florida
32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Mark Herzlich, LB, Boston College

Read more: http://football.realgm.com/src_wiretap_ ... z10Ikczdbh

That's 17 first rounders correct, 4 that didn't come out early, 5 second rounders, two (Carter, Herzlich) that plummeted for health reasons, Mallett being a knucklehead, a top-10 mention of Ponder that I chickened out on, and a handful that didn't meet expectations in 2010. That's pretty typical forecast results for me.

[hermes]

all i want is the vikings to reach for a qb again

[Manhattan Project]

Is it wrong to thing that this QB class will be better than 04? I mean that's how good I think Luck, Barkley and Jones can be.

[Icness]

Is it wrong to thing that this QB class will be better than 04? I mean that's how good I think Luck, Barkley and Jones can be.

Ryan Lindley is better at the same point than any QB in the 2011 draft and he's clearly no better than #3 in next year's class. If you put him at USC and Barkley at SDSU the national draftnik opinions on them would flip (no knock on Barkley, I think he's excellent). He's basically a bigger Kyle Orton with a better deep ball.

FWIW, all of the following teams have taken, or acquired by trade, a 1st or 2nd round QB in the last 3 years:
Carolina (twice, Clausen and Newton)
St. Louis
Tennessee
Tampa Bay
Chicago
Detroit
Jacksonville
Minnesota
Denver
Cleveland
Cincinnati
NY Jets
Atlanta
Miami (twice, Henne and Pat White)
Baltimore
San Francisco
Oakland (Campbell cost them a 4th, pair that with Russell in 2007 and it fits IMO)
Technically GB has too (Brian Brohm), but they don't exactly need a QB

Teams that have no need for a 1st round QB in 2012:
Indianapolis
New Orleans
Pittsburgh
San Diego
New England
Houston
NY Giants
Dallas
Philadelphia
Green Bay

That leaves 5 teams:
Buffalo
Arizona
Kansas City
Washington
Seattle

Figure that one (Arizona) will wind up with Kevin Kolb, another will wind up with Kyle Orton. Matt Cassel is not great but he's good enough to remain starting in KC.

Of the other 27 teams, really only Miami and perhaps Cleveland or Dallas (pending Romo's recovery) and Detroit (pending Stafford's health) look to have any sort of realistic 1st round need at QB. That's not a lot of teams looking at QBs in a draft full of them. To wit, IMO Kirk Cousins is better at the same point than Jake Locker or Christian Ponder and they were top 12 picks in 2011; Cousins projects right now as a 2nd/3rd round pick in 2012 and I say that as a big fan of his. That makes me think there is going to be a surprise or two in 2012 (Indy taking Peyton's successor? Houston splurging? Chicago giving up on Cutler if he can't regain the team?)

[ChronicKerr]

Huge MSU fan as well as Jerel Worthy fan but even I'm a little surprised to see him as a top 10 pick in next years draft. 2 years ago coming out of HS he was a 2 star on scout ranked in the 70's of DT's coming out and he's only played 2 years of college ball thus far. What separates him from the rest do you think? Is it just a weak DT class as I don't think he really compares to the Marcell Dareus's or Suh's or Fairley's of the world coming into the draft. Do you envision a huge year for him and see him leaving school early? I sure hope he sticks around for 2 more years.

[Icness]

Huge MSU fan as well as Jerel Worthy fan but even I'm a little surprised to see him as a top 10 pick in next years draft. 2 years ago coming out of HS he was a 2 star on scout ranked in the 70's of DT's coming out and he's only played 2 years of college ball thus far. What separates him from the rest do you think? Is it just a weak DT class as I don't think he really compares to the Marcell Dareus's or Suh's or Fairley's of the world coming into the draft. Do you envision a huge year for him and see him leaving school early? I sure hope he sticks around for 2 more years.

I think he's going to take a big leap this year. He has been outstanding this spring, gained some functional weight and really worked on his footwork. He's not a big-time penetrator (so far) and right now I'd project him as more of a 1-technique in a 4-3 front, but it sounds like they are going to turn him loose more. It's not a great DT class thus far either. Right now I would say he reminds me of Kyle Williams of the Bills, who thrived when put in the proper scheme but was JAG otherwise.

[Roger Murdock]

Thats pretty crazy about the QBs taken over the last few years. The Browns havent taken a QB in the top 2 rounds in the last 3 years unless you count trading that pick for Quinn, in which case you can add KC into that list as well.

[czarleon09]

This may be a dumb question but what will happen with the draft if there is no season at all next year?