2012 Ask Jeff Risdon a Question

Killa K · Post #101 » by **Killa K** » Thu Nov 24, 2011 3:11 am

Thoughts on Montee Ball?

Roger Murdock · Post #102 » by **Roger Murdock** » Thu Nov 24, 2011 4:53 pm

Jaruff wrote:
Icness wrote:If I were Marty Hurney I would take Claiborne. The goal is to get better than the Falcons and Saints and the current secondary is not up to the task. This guy is better in coverage than Patrick Peterson and he makes plays. They'll have to teach him not to try and intercept every ball, but Chris Gamble was the same way once upon a time. He actually reminds me of Gamble when he came out, only a little better in lateral agility.

I think with a full offseason Byron Bell can emerge as a decent right tackle, at worst a good swing backup guy. He was working with the 3s until the 3rd preseason game so he's had very little prep. I would cut losses with Otah and hope somebody else thinks he's worth a 4th round pick. Having the Kalils up front would be intriguing though.

They're in an ideal spot to trade back, esp. if the quarterbacks (Jones, Tannehill, Barkley, RG3) all show well in the postseason workout circuit. You should hope that one of those guys clearly separates from the others and will be a guy teams covet enough to move up a few spots. I think either Barkley or Griffin can be that guy, and a team like Washington or KC or Seattle will want to jump up. I still am not high on Barkley even after what he's done the last couple of weeks, though I've seen some things I do really like.

Let me ask you this; what would the asking price be for one of those QB's this year? Would someone be crazy enough to give up a Julio Jones package for the one that takes the crown? For us, I think the major issue right now is depth. I'd much rather have several additional picks than a top 5-10 unless there's a special talent available.

I think there is a very realistic chance of the Browns trading both their first rounders for a chance at Barkley or Luck. That is shaping up to likely be a pick somewhere between 4 and 10 for their pick and 16 and 22 with the Falcons pick.

ohara · Post #103 » by **ohara** » Thu Nov 24, 2011 6:22 pm

^^^If I am Carolina, I think I'd love a deal with Cleveland with a 2 for 1 swap of 1sts. Think they could add 2 impactful pieces rather than 1 big stud. But it has to be someone Cleveland really covets to make the deal work.

Post #104 » by **Icness** » Sun Nov 27, 2011 9:26 pm

Dalbi wrote:Before this year, I felt the 49ers had a decent amount of holes needed to be filled. Now that they are winning with the talent they have they don't have any pressing needs. What positions do you think they look at and who at those positions will be available at the end of round one.

Just guessing because it's too early to know, but I would go after a playmaking slot receiver and a CB/S guy that can eventually start. They can afford to go best talent available if they're picking in the 26-32 range. I wouldn't mind them adding another DE too, keep Smith & Co. fresh.

Post #105 » by **Icness** » Sun Nov 27, 2011 9:33 pm

Let me ask you this; what would the asking price be for one of those QB's this year? Would someone be crazy enough to give up a Julio Jones package for the one that takes the crown? For us, I think the major issue right now is depth. I'd much rather have several additional picks than a top 5-10 unless there's a special talent available.

For Luck, the price will be at least: 2 #1s this year, a #1 next year, and probably a couple of thirds/fourths, and perhaps a functional veteran player or two.

Let's say Cleveland wants to move up, like roger murdock mentioned. The Browns will pick probably 6-10, the Falcons in the 20-24 range in each round. The #7, #23, #39 picks this year plus next year's Cleveland 1st and 3rd, let's guesstimate those as #10 and #75. That's asking an awful lot for one player. Not OOTQ though. If the Colts are convinced Peyton can come back and play 2-3 more years at near-peak level, all those picks provide a lot of reinforcement to get them back into contention quickly. As long as they stop drafting the Donald Browns and Jerry Hughes of the world...

Post #106 » by **Icness** » Sun Nov 27, 2011 9:36 pm

Killa K wrote:Thoughts on Montee Ball?

I posted a lengthy thing on Ball last night in the NCAA thread. Here it is:

Some of it depends on his weight and his times. He's got to be under 220 and have a tight 10-yard split when he works out away from Madison. The numbers the scouting services have from the Wisconsin spring game had him running a 4.58 40 with an average split. He needs to prove he can be explosive and has enough burst to create a little on his own and not just take what the OL gives him and then create.

Honestly the TD numbers really don't mean a lot, just as they don't for Bernard Pierce (Temple) who finished with 25 TDs and is eerily similar to Ball stylistically and in the way they are built. Those TDs hold more sway, or rather should hold more sway with the Heisman voters and All American voters. It's nice that he shows he can finish runs and has a nose for the end zone, but that's really viewed as much of a function of his team and the opponents he faced than anything unique or outstanding on his own. Trent Richardson scoring 20 in the SEC will trump Ball scoring 30 in the Big Ten; that's not right or fair but it is what it is, even though the SEC is a three-team conference this year.

I would put him probably 8th to 12th on the RB list, in the range with Bobby Rainey (WKU), Pierce and Tauren Poole (TEN). Haven't really gone down the chart that far with any sort of certainty yet. Looks like early 3rd if he times under 4.5 (which is very unlikely) to late 5th/early 6th. There is so little demand for running backs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, that if a guy isn't perceived elite like Richardson he is going to fall further than most fans expect because there is so little differentiation and so much reliance on staying healthy. Look at Jahvid Best and Donald Brown, two recent late 1sts; Best might very well be done already because of injury and Brown will probably not be back in Indy (depends on the new coach if they fire Caldwell, which they absolutely should). With so many runners on the market that wind up blowing up, even if only for a game or two, teams are not going to heavily invest in a RB in those rounds.

Post #107 » by **Rafael122** » Mon Nov 28, 2011 3:09 pm

If all the guys that should/suppose to come out do declare, which will be the better QB draft class: 2011 QB Class or 2012 QB Class?

Post #108 » by **Icness** » Mon Nov 28, 2011 3:42 pm

Rafael122 wrote:If all the guys that should/suppose to come out do declare, which will be the better QB draft class: 2011 QB Class or 2012 QB Class?

I'll take Newton/Dalton/Ponder/Gabbert as rookies over Luck/Barkley/Griffin/Jones. Long term I think Newton will be the best of that group. I'm not high on Barkley at all, not as crazy as most about Jones either. I think Kirk Cousins could emerge as a Dalton-like performer, maybe. Gimmie this year over next year.

Post #109 » by **Worm Guts** » Mon Nov 28, 2011 4:29 pm

I was with you on Barkley, but he has looked amazing the last few weeks. I'm sure the receivers he has helps, but he seems to have taken a step up.

Post #110 » by **Icness** » Tue Nov 29, 2011 2:37 pm

Worm Guts wrote:I was with you on Barkley, but he has looked amazing the last few weeks. I'm sure the receivers he has helps, but he seems to have taken a step up.

LOL I know, I am rethinking him. He's making better decisions and making them quicker, plus he's throwing the ball consistently harder. That's the fun part of evaluating these guys is watching them make progress, or not. I actually love it when a guy I wasn't high on makes me change my opinion or winds up proving me wrong once he's in the NFL. With very few exceptions I genuinely want players to succeed. And most of those exceptions wind up working themselves out in my favor, like Taylor Mays or Aqib Talib.

SpeedyG · Post #111 » by **SpeedyG** » Tue Nov 29, 2011 7:06 pm

Not really a draft question Icness, but what do you know about new (soon to be) Jaguars owner Shahid Kahn?

Post #112 » by **Icness** » Tue Nov 29, 2011 9:24 pm

SpeedyG wrote:Not really a draft question Icness, but what do you know about new (soon to be) Jaguars owner Shahid Kahn?

He tried to buy the Rams last year but the Kroenke/WalMart people basically undercut him and stole the deal. Very cash-rich, very avid sports fan. I haven't heard the sale price yet but I'm very curious what the franchise goes for, the first sale after the lockout. He was set to buy the Rams for ~$700M.

He is saying all the right things about keeping the team in JAX, but one of the reasons he lost out on the Rams is that he refused to sign a deal that would definitively keep the team from moving back to LA.

SpeedyG · Post #113 » by **SpeedyG** » Tue Nov 29, 2011 9:58 pm

Icness wrote:
SpeedyG wrote:Not really a draft question Icness, but what do you know about new (soon to be) Jaguars owner Shahid Kahn?

He tried to buy the Rams last year but the Kroenke/WalMart people basically undercut him and stole the deal. Very cash-rich, very avid sports fan. I haven't heard the sale price yet but I'm very curious what the franchise goes for, the first sale after the lockout. He was set to buy the Rams for ~$700M.

He is saying all the right things about keeping the team in JAX, but one of the reasons he lost out on the Rams is that he refused to sign a deal that would definitively keep the team from moving back to LA.

That's worrisome, seeing as there are no clauses in the purchase to restrict him from doing so.

Post #114 » by **Icness** » Tue Nov 29, 2011 10:23 pm

That's why the purchase price is so important. If it's higher than expected, the team is gone for sure, perhaps as soon as 2013. The last Forbes value for the team I saw was $660M. If he paid more than $750M, bye bye JAX.

SpeedyG · Post #115 » by **SpeedyG** » Tue Nov 29, 2011 11:15 pm

No details were revealed, but rumored is $750M to 800M. If he's taking the team (and I do agree that unless things change drastically that he'll probably move it minimum two years to five), the interesting thing is how he's going to break the lease that the Jaguars have with the city of Jacksonville, which has 12 years left remaining.

I don't know the details of that lease, but from everything I'm hearing around here, people seem to believe that it is as iron clad a lease as you can have, and that he'll have to shell out a major amount of cash to do so (like, almost doubling what he paid for the franchise).

That being said, if LA is really a cash cow, even if he has to pay 1.5BM to buy the Jags + move them, who knows it might be worth it for him.

WAYSA · Post #116 » by **WAYSA** » Tue Nov 29, 2011 11:55 pm

I don't see any scenario were he buys the team and doesn't move them.

He's a savvy businessman and will not lose out on his investment.

Post #117 » by **Icness** » Wed Nov 30, 2011 2:06 pm

I didn't realize he is buying 100% of the team. Wow. Not even Jerry Jones or Dan Snyder own 100%.

SpeedyG · Post #118 » by **SpeedyG** » Wed Nov 30, 2011 2:38 pm

Icness wrote:I didn't realize he is buying 100% of the team. Wow. Not even Jerry Jones or Dan Snyder own 100%.

Yep complete ownership...plus no clause to keep in Jax except for a "gentleman's agreement" is why a lot of people here are very cautiously excited about the prospect of new ownership. On one hand, reports are that the guy is a passionate football fan and an overall good guy (has won awards and what not in community). But on the other, he is a businessman who was total control of the team.

Post #119 » by **Icness** » Sat Jan 7, 2012 9:58 pm

Bumping this one up for this year's class.

Thinking hard about rating RG3 over Luck. Short-term Luck is clearly the more ready but long-term RG3 has a higher ceiling IMO. Intrigued by how many people are backtracking on Luck though, I find it comical. That guy is freaking amazing compared to where even Stafford or Bradford were as #1 overall picks, so much more polished and more ready to rock and roll.

Roger Murdock · Post #120 » by **Roger Murdock** » Sat Jan 7, 2012 10:38 pm

Icness wrote:Bumping this one up for this year's class.

Thinking hard about rating RG3 over Luck. Short-term Luck is clearly the more ready but long-term RG3 has a higher ceiling IMO. Intrigued by how many people are backtracking on Luck though, I find it comical. That guy is freaking amazing compared to where even Stafford or Bradford were as #1 overall picks, so much more polished and more ready to rock and roll.

The extra year of college is almost always bad for 'pro ready' QBs. People nit-pick the hell out of them.