Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread

jakecronus8 · Post #21 » by **jakecronus8** » Fri Mar 11, 2011 8:53 pm

Question on two guy who are falling, in Akeem Ayers and Greg Little. Could you see Ayers dropping to the second round, and given his recent interview screw ups, could you see Little being undrafted?

Post #22 » by **Wade-A-Holic** » Fri Mar 11, 2011 9:23 pm

Icness wrote:Watkins is a Canadian fireman that went to the same JUCO as Aaron Rodgers (Watkins was one year after) to get a firefighting degree. He was a hockey player and rugby player that took up football to get a tuition waiver and he caught on quickly. He played hockey at 270 pounds, which means his balance and leg strength is incredible and natural. Bench press numbers are nice, but NFL teams really love guys that can squat, and he can do 8 reps at 700 pounds. By way of comparison, Paea can't squat above 680. His maturity is a huge plus.

Tyron Smith will go in the first 20 picks. It's either him or Castonzo that goes 1st. He's pretty safe as far as offseason risers go because there's a lot of excellent game tape from him playing RT. His game tape is better than Solder's. I worry about a guy gaining 25 pounds in 2 months and keeping that physique, especially coming from the same school that brought up Brian Cushing, Taylor Mays, and Rey Maualuga.

Why don't they at least have linemen and linebackers squat and clean at the combine? Like you said, teams look for that. It's one of the reasons I love Drake Nevis. He set LSU's power clean record and has a lot of strength throughout his body to go along with his short area burst, good feet, and hand usage.

I also have to agree with you about Watkins. I'm jumping on his bandwagon.

Post #23 » by **Icness** » Fri Mar 11, 2011 9:27 pm

ohara wrote:If the Panthers do go with a QB at #1, is your hunch it will be Gabbert or Newton, and who do you think will prove to be the better NFL QB between the two?

I have heard there are people in their building that want Gabbert to prove he's worthy, but I wouldn't rule out Newton at this point. I think Gabbert is going to be pretty good and I think he's more likely to have a better career, but Cam Newton can be the best QB in the league in time, if he doesn't bomb. Sort of your own philosophy to judge them: would you rather get straight B's or get four A's mixed with 4 D's, with no way of knowing? If I'm Carolina, I take the risk on Newton because the fans need it. If I'm Arizona or Tennessee, I take Gabbert.

Post #24 » by **Icness** » Fri Mar 11, 2011 9:36 pm

jakecronus8 wrote:Question on two guy who are falling, in Akeem Ayers and Greg Little. Could you see Ayers dropping to the second round, and given his recent interview screw ups, could you see Little being undrafted?

Honestly I'm not sure why Ayers ever got elevated to the 1st round in the first place. I don't know one employed-by-the-NFL scout that has a first-round grade on him. There's a demand for OLBs and he does make plays, but there are so many better players at other positions that should go before him. He might sneak into the final 2-3 picks of the first round but it's much more likely IMO that he falls to where Detroit or Houston are picking in Round 2.

Greg Little has had exactly one great game, and it happened to come in a bowl game that everyone was paying attention to. He lit up Pitt, which lost both starting CBs by the middle of the 2nd quarter, in the Meineke Bowl (IIRC) after 2009. He's a mid 4.5 receiver with bad feet, no blocking, and serious baggage for which he is completely unapologetic. He hasn't played since that game and has had major leg surgery since then. I know I wouldn't draft him, no chance. I suspect someone will take a flier in the 5th or 6th round, because there is some talent there and he hired a good agent. I've heard the comparisons to Mike Williams (the Syracuse quitter, not the fat USC guy) as far as problem child WRs go, but Williams was far more physically gifted than Little.

Roger Murdock · Post #25 » by **Roger Murdock** » Sat Mar 12, 2011 5:13 pm

Will Von Millers stock be hurt for representing the rookies in the CBA negotiations and whatnot.

St.Nick · Post #26 » by **St.Nick** » Sun Mar 13, 2011 5:14 pm

Icness wrote:
ohara wrote:If the Panthers do go with a QB at #1, is your hunch it will be Gabbert or Newton, and who do you think will prove to be the better NFL QB between the two?

I have heard there are people in their building that want Gabbert to prove he's worthy, but I wouldn't rule out Newton at this point. I think Gabbert is going to be pretty good and I think he's more likely to have a better career, but Cam Newton can be the best QB in the league in time, if he doesn't bomb. Sort of your own philosophy to judge them: would you rather get straight B's or get four A's mixed with 4 D's, with no way of knowing? If I'm Carolina, I take the risk on Newton because the fans need it. If I'm Arizona or Tennessee, I take Gabbert.

You aren't including the Niners in your list, Jeff. Any reason why you think they'll pass over a QB when its such a huge need?

Also, I'd be interested to hear how the lockout is going to effect trades on draft day. That may have a huge impact on drafting, right?

profootball1984 · Post #27 » by **profootball1984** » Mon Mar 14, 2011 12:56 pm

Icness wrote:
Roger Murdock wrote:Who are the players you rate much differently than most scouts, be it you either are much higher or much lower on them than others?

I'm higher on:
Jerrell Jernigan, my #3 WR and #19 overall prospect
Ras-I Dowling, but the injuries are increasingly bugging me
Adam Weber, Minnesota QB. I have a 5th round grade on him
Colin McCarthy, I have him #39 overall, love his versatility
Ryan Jones, my #4 corner and #56 overall
Lawrence Wilson, but I'm a sucker for LBs that can cover

I'm lower on:
Adrian Clayborn, tough to see him being more than a complimentary end with his lack of quickness and you just don't take those in the 1st round. See Jamaal Anderson, same guy.
Aldon Smith, my #55 overall
Jonathan Baldwin, my #92 overall and I don't think his light bulb will come on
Titus Young, just not feeling him as more than a late 3rd
Jerrell Powe, undraftably stiff IMO
pretty much all RBs not named Ingram or Da'Rel Scott
both the UCLA guys, Moore and Ayers

Ryan Jones from Northwest Missouri State was the D-2 Defensive Player of the Year. I think he has a lot of talent and will continue to get more interest across the NFL.

I wonder how Baldwin will interview and if his 'prima donna' statements at the end of the season will come back to haunt him. I've watched Young at Boise State for the past couple years and he is an ELECTRIC return man and can really stretch the field - I just wonder if his slight stature is going to be held against him.

You are 'bucking the trend' with Aldon Smith at #55! Lots of 'pundits' keep talking about him in the first round. It will be interesting to see where/when he actually goes.

Post #28 » by **Icness** » Mon Mar 14, 2011 2:28 pm

Roger Murdock wrote:Will Von Millers stock be hurt for representing the rookies in the CBA negotiations and whatnot.

Not at all. If anything it makes him more endearing to a team that values smart and involved players. The teams know it's not his fault he's in a very awkward spot.

Post #29 » by **Icness** » Mon Mar 14, 2011 2:38 pm

St.Nick wrote:
Icness wrote:
ohara wrote:If the Panthers do go with a QB at #1, is your hunch it will be Gabbert or Newton, and who do you think will prove to be the better NFL QB between the two?

I have heard there are people in their building that want Gabbert to prove he's worthy, but I wouldn't rule out Newton at this point. I think Gabbert is going to be pretty good and I think he's more likely to have a better career, but Cam Newton can be the best QB in the league in time, if he doesn't bomb. Sort of your own philosophy to judge them: would you rather get straight B's or get four A's mixed with 4 D's, with no way of knowing? If I'm Carolina, I take the risk on Newton because the fans need it. If I'm Arizona or Tennessee, I take Gabbert.

You aren't including the Niners in your list, Jeff. Any reason why you think they'll pass over a QB when its such a huge need?

Also, I'd be interested to hear how the lockout is going to effect trades on draft day. That may have a huge impact on drafting, right?

I don't think SF will be in a spot to take a QB at #7. Both Gabbert and Newton will be gone, and they're not taking Mallett or Locker there. They also happen to need pass rushers and secondary help pretty badly. Obviously their #1 need is QB, but unless either of the top 2 QBs are still around it doesn't make any sense for them to go QB. They are in a prime spot to get Mallett or Locker or even Kaepernick in Round 2. My somewhat educated guess would be they would go Locker there, assuming he's still around. The irony that Locker most closely resembles Alex Smith more than any other QB is definitely lost on them, that I can tell you factually.

If there is no resolution, the only things that can be traded are 2011 picks. No players, no future picks (there might be no more drafts, it might be technically illegal under labor laws). That restricts movement quite a bit. Because teams so greatly value the 2nd and 3rd round picks, nobody can move up or down in the 1st more than a 5th-7th round pick will move them, which is probably 1 spot per late-round pick. The wild card is New England, which can package a lot of early picks to shoot way up should they choose.

There is a chance that an injunction would allow business to operate as normal, which would allow players to be traded. I couldn't tell you the likelihood of that but I know many owners are hoping for it. I still think that the inability to go after free agents or solidify a draft plan is killing some owners and will make them more apt to want to settle quickly. The decertification kind of nuked that though, I'm afraid.

Post #30 » by **Icness** » Mon Mar 14, 2011 8:40 pm

Got some very good quotes the last couple of days in talking to some people after some pro days. I'm typing it up, should be on the main page tomorrow. Taking my son to his first NBA game (Rockets/Suns) tonight so my work time is limited. Among the quotes:

on Ryan Mallett:
Everyone wants to talk about this and that with the drugs and the cockiness and the immaturity. But before I even get to that stuff when breaking him down, I don’t like the way he handles pressure on the field. If he can’t step forward clean, he’s a mess. And he’s so damn big and slow, he needs a lot of space to get the ball off like that. We’ve watched every throw he’s made several times and it’s tried and true that if he cannot get a full step into his throw, bad things happen. …tell me where he can play where he’s going to get that kind of time he needs. People give Peyton (Manning) **** because he can’t move, but he can slide and throw, he can change it up if he has to. Mallett, no, just can’t do that.

JR: That sounds like Derek Anderson.
Scout: Well, Mallett has a lot more going for him than Derek Anderson ever did. I’m telling you Jeff, Ryan Mallett might have the best arm I’ve ever seen.

JR: How does your team feel about him?
Scout: My report on him was just what we said. Give him a clean pocket every play and he’ll win you a Super Bowl. Put him behind a line like Washington wound up with and it’s not gonna be pretty. …I know (our GM) has spent a lot of homework on him. Talked to Lloyd Carr (Mallett’s coach at Michigan), talked to all kinds of people at Arkansas, talked to guys he’s played with before. The basic consensus is that he’s a big kid but a good kid. You know, put him in the right environment and he’ll be fine. (The GM) compared him to Michael Vick that way, you know, give him a support system and hold his hand and you’ve got yourself a great quarterback. …but it will always be an effort to keep him pointed in the right direction. Some teams are better suited for that than others.

and a different guy, also a current scout, on Edmund Gates, one of the flavors of the month:
“Tell me how a kid gets thrown out of a JUCO in his hometown. You can fail every class and they keep you around for the money. This kid got booted from a JUCO. You damn well better believe that’s a flag.”

Roger Murdock · Post #31 » by **Roger Murdock** » Mon Mar 14, 2011 10:40 pm

Icness wrote:Got some very good quotes the last couple of days in talking to some people after some pro days. I'm typing it up, should be on the main page tomorrow. Taking my son to his first NBA game (Rockets/Suns) tonight so my work time is limited. Among the quotes:

Awesome man, Have fun. I still remember my first game back when I was a little kid, obviously a huge moment.

Sandlot · Post #32 » by **Sandlot** » Wed Mar 16, 2011 12:37 am

Do you think Julio Jones is worth a top 10 pick? How far ahead of him is Green? Are these guys you should take just because they will be special?

Post #33 » by **PhilipNelsonFan** » Wed Mar 16, 2011 3:03 am

Jeff, in light of the news in the headline up there that the Rookie Symposium may not go on, could you shed some light on that? Is there any carryover between the seminar events and what young players actually do?

And, in the vein of college basketball players looking for NFL careers, I would love to know if you've heard of Julius Thomas (Portland State) and Demario Ballard (D-II Western Oregon) and whether or not they're legitimate pro prospects.

Post #34 » by **Icness** » Wed Mar 16, 2011 3:30 pm

Sandlot wrote:Do you think Julio Jones is worth a top 10 pick? How far ahead of him is Green? Are these guys you should take just because they will be special?

I'm not crazy about Jones as a top 10 pick. Between all the minor injuries that are seemingly always bothering him and his propensity for dropping balls, I like him more in the teens.

They are very different kinds of receivers. Green is in the Randy Moss/Calvin Johnson mold, a long, strong, field-stretcher. Jones is more of an Anquan Boldin/Hines Ward kind of receiver. I think you take the chance on Green before Jones but that should not be read as a knock on Jones. I think Jones is the kind of player that can raise his level of play when called upon, whereas Green hasn't shown that as much. I've seen Julio Jones have no trouble getting open against both Joe Haden and Patrick Peterson in clutch situations, and that is certainly worth a pick in the top 15 or so.

Post #35 » by **Icness** » Wed Mar 16, 2011 3:41 pm

PhilipNelsonFan wrote:Jeff, in light of the news in the headline up there that the Rookie Symposium may not go on, could you shed some light on that? Is there any carryover between the seminar events and what young players actually do?

And, in the vein of college basketball players looking for NFL careers, I would love to know if you've heard of Julius Thomas (Portland State) and Demario Ballard (D-II Western Oregon) and whether or not they're legitimate pro prospects.

That's a good question. It seems like the playes that are most in need of lessons from the rookie symposium are the ones that pay less attention to it. A lot of players get a lot from it--particularly in terms of PEDs and the "woman" issues. It also preps them for OTAs and training camp, but since those are probably going to get drastically diminished that shouldn't mean much of a loss.

I've heard of Thomas, he was trying to get invited to the NFLPA game but didn't make the cut. They'll booth get into a camp (if there are camps) but UDFA's have to show something immediately on special teams to survive more than a week. Most of the hoopsters-turned-footballers spend all their time learning the primary position (usually TE or WR) and never learn kick coverage or punt return stuff. I would put the odds of small-school basketball players making even the practice squad of an NFL team extremely low.

RiotPunch · Post #36 » by **RiotPunch** » Thu Mar 17, 2011 7:28 pm

Hey Jeff, what's your take on Drake Nevis? Is he capable of playing DE in the 3-4? (Filling the Cullen Jenkins void)

Post #37 » by **Icness** » Thu Mar 17, 2011 9:24 pm

RiotPunch wrote:Hey Jeff, what's your take on Drake Nevis? Is he capable of playing DE in the 3-4? (Filling the Cullen Jenkins void)

I think he might be better in a 3-4. He plays a lot like Aaron Smith of Pittsburgh, and that's a similar defense to what the Packers run. Initial quickness, quick hands, quick to read the ball with relentless motor that somewhat offsets the lack prototypical strength and girth for the position. He's about 20 pounds lighter than Jenkins though so it would take some adjustment, might have to play him shaded wider with the ILB a step closer. To go back to PIT, they did that when Smith went down and Ziggy Hood took over that spot; Farrior started playing one more step to his left and a half-step closer to the line because Hood couldn't anchor like Smith. Actually Nevis has some Ziggy Hood to himtoo but he's not as quick.

IMO he's a reach at #32 but not any moreso than Brooks Reid, who is gaining momentum for that spot. I like Nevis in the 40-50 range, Reid a little lower than that. Doesn't mean it won't happen though. For GB at that spot I would prefer Cameron Heyward or Muhammad Wilkerson over Nevis, and they both will go in the 25-40 range.

94feet · Post #38 » by **94feet** » Fri Mar 18, 2011 4:34 pm

Jeff, with the Players and Owners dispute, aren't trades of any kind not allowed until a deal is in place? If so, that would mean the Patriots can't use their extra picks to move up in the draft like you predicted, right?

Post #39 » by **Icness** » Fri Mar 18, 2011 10:25 pm

94feet wrote:Jeff, with the Players and Owners dispute, aren't trades of any kind not allowed until a deal is in place? If so, that would mean the Patriots can't use their extra picks to move up in the draft like you predicted, right?

They can trade picks from this year's draft, and only this year's draft.

Roger Murdock · Post #40 » by **Roger Murdock** » Sat Mar 19, 2011 3:51 pm

Why isn't Ryan Kerrigan considered a unanimous top 10 selection.

He has elite production, 3 very good years in college, tons of sacks and TFL. Hell he forced more fumbles in his college career than most of the top pass rushers have sacks. He plays the run well. He has a constant motor. He plays a premium position and has good size and athleticism for it. I've heard he can play in a 3-4 as OLB as well. He doesnt have character or injury concerns pushing him down.

Really I dont understand why everyone seems so low on him. He seems like the complete package, one of the most NFL ready players, and an extremely safe pick with a lot of upside.