zmanishere11 wrote:Jeff, I'd like to challenge you and every other draft expert on this notion that STL is guarenteed to trade the #2 pick this year.
It seems to me that this is a 6 player draft (Luck, RG3, Khalil, Blackmon, Richardson, Claiborne).
Those 6 guys are probably going to go in some sort of order in the top 6 (with Richardson the only one to potentially fall due to his position).
It seems like after those 6, the "bust factor" goes up exponentially. Just using Walterfootball for an example, you're looking at Reif / Wright / Coples / Brockers / Ingram / Still with your next 6 picks - try to chose which 3 of those 6 are flipping burgers when their 4 year contracts are up (I'll go with Coples, Brockers and Still - D-line is always a good bet).
I'm not sure you could show me a package that involves a pick outside of the top 6 this year that I'm even interested in?
So if I'm CLE, and my team needs are "talent on offense," why would I give up a 2 (or whatever it would take to move up 2 spots) when I'm guarenteed one of RG3 / Blackmon / Richardson at #4?
And if I'm WAS, and I know I can get one of the top guys at #6 at a position of need (likely Richardson or Claiborne), wouldn't I be better off looking at Flynn or Manning, keeping #6, and whatever else I would have given up to move up to #2?
Is #8, their #2 this year, and their #1 next year from MIA (likely in the teens / 20's) really worth moving into bust land?
I guess I'd listen to DAL for #14 and Dez Bryant.
For the record, if I were STL I'd try and move Bradford for a 2, take the cap hit this year, and start over with RG3 (guy is that talented), and I still think if RG3 wows at the combine / workouts, it's possible.
Anyways, I think if WAS goes with Flynn or Manning in FA, the trade discussions for #2 are going to be a lot less than people think. Thoughts?
Nice well-reasoned post and question.
I'm totally with you on Cleveland's thinking. And they are totally with you too, except swap in Tannehill for Richardson on your list
The reason why seemingly everyone thinks the Rams can and will deal #2 is because of RG3. He is special enough to take the risk, or at least that is the widely held perception. I buy into it too but I do think there is more risk of bust with him than a lot of people want to see; the Big 12 defenses were freaking garbage last year and Kendall Wright is a lot better than most people seem to think he is.
Washington is a big wild card with free agency like you said. Have to let that play out. For the sake of your argument, if they land Flynn that takes them out of the "moving up" business. Miami is next, then Seattle. I agree the Rams will not drop that far and the trade talks will dry up. You might see a team like Dallas or Kansas City make a tiered deal (trade up, then trade up again) to get to #2 but that's giving up an awful lot.
If I were the Rams I would do whatever I could to dump Sam Bradford and take RG3 for myself. We've already seen Bradford as good as he will ever be, and that got them to 7-9 in the worst division in NFL history. But they sure seem staunchly committed to Bradford and are trying aggressively to get whatever they can for the #2 pick.
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