2012 Ask Jeff Risdon a Question

[Icness]

Thank you jeff, now I need to to an find some clips of these guys. Thanks again (Out of curiosity of course )

Anyone with a Tom Morello sig gets my full respect.

[zmanishere11]

For the record, if I were STL I'd try and move Bradford for a 2, take the cap hit this year, and start over with RG3 (guy is that talented), and I still think if RG3 wows at the combine / workouts, it's possible.

If I were the Rams I would do whatever I could to dump Sam Bradford and take RG3 for myself. We've already seen Bradford as good as he will ever be, and that got them to 7-9 in the worst division in NFL history. But they sure seem staunchly committed to Bradford and are trying aggressively to get whatever they can for the #2 pick.

You and I both - I still think people will start talking about this after RG3 just destroys interviews / combine.

Help me make some sense out of the OLB position, specifically in the 3-4, in this draft (as a Packers fan who NEED some pass rush). It looks like Upshaw, Ingram, and then a bunch of guys who played D-End in college but could probably play OLB in a 3/4. Who do you like there?

[Icness]

Help me make some sense out of the OLB position, specifically in the 3-4, in this draft (as a Packers fan who NEED some pass rush). It looks like Upshaw, Ingram, and then a bunch of guys who played D-End in college but could probably play OLB in a 3/4. Who do you like there?

Upshaw is my #2 defensive player in the draft after Claiborne. Other than lacking elite get-off speed he is every bit as good as Brian Orakpo was coming out of Texas, only about 10 pounds heavier.

Ingram isn't to that level but he's a top 20 pick, not as good against the run and not as fluid in traffic.

Guys you should look at:
Cam Johnson, Virginia--they ran a 3-4/4-3 hybrid and he has good size/quickness at 270 pounds.
Chandler Jones, Syracuse--pretty tall for an OLB but he moves pretty well.
Olivier Vernon, Miami--I'm a lot higher on him than most in part because he's got a terrible rep with coaches and teammates, but he has very good athletic ability and tends to make big plays at big times.
Jonathan Massaquoi, Troy--great length, quick feet, godo in coverage. Not a polished or overly fast pass rusher though, more of a complementary guy.

[TheOUTLAW]

Jeff, I'd like to challenge you and every other draft expert on this notion that STL is guarenteed to trade the #2 pick this year.

It seems to me that this is a 6 player draft (Luck, RG3, Khalil, Blackmon, Richardson, Claiborne).

Those 6 guys are probably going to go in some sort of order in the top 6 (with Richardson the only one to potentially fall due to his position).

It seems like after those 6, the "bust factor" goes up exponentially. Just using Walterfootball for an example, you're looking at Reif / Wright / Coples / Brockers / Ingram / Still with your next 6 picks - try to chose which 3 of those 6 are flipping burgers when their 4 year contracts are up (I'll go with Coples, Brockers and Still - D-line is always a good bet).

I'm not sure you could show me a package that involves a pick outside of the top 6 this year that I'm even interested in?

So if I'm CLE, and my team needs are "talent on offense," why would I give up a 2 (or whatever it would take to move up 2 spots) when I'm guarenteed one of RG3 / Blackmon / Richardson at #4?

And if I'm WAS, and I know I can get one of the top guys at #6 at a position of need (likely Richardson or Claiborne), wouldn't I be better off looking at Flynn or Manning, keeping #6, and whatever else I would have given up to move up to #2?

Is #8, their #2 this year, and their #1 next year from MIA (likely in the teens / 20's) really worth moving into bust land?

I guess I'd listen to DAL for #14 and Dez Bryant.

For the record, if I were STL I'd try and move Bradford for a 2, take the cap hit this year, and start over with RG3 (guy is that talented), and I still think if RG3 wows at the combine / workouts, it's possible.

Anyways, I think if WAS goes with Flynn or Manning in FA, the trade discussions for #2 are going to be a lot less than people think. Thoughts?

Nice well-reasoned post and question.

I'm totally with you on Cleveland's thinking. And they are totally with you too, except swap in Tannehill for Richardson on your list

The reason why seemingly everyone thinks the Rams can and will deal #2 is because of RG3. He is special enough to take the risk, or at least that is the widely held perception. I buy into it too but I do think there is more risk of bust with him than a lot of people want to see; the Big 12 defenses were freaking garbage last year and Kendall Wright is a lot better than most people seem to think he is.

Washington is a big wild card with free agency like you said. Have to let that play out. For the sake of your argument, if they land Flynn that takes them out of the "moving up" business. Miami is next, then Seattle. I agree the Rams will not drop that far and the trade talks will dry up. You might see a team like Dallas or Kansas City make a tiered deal (trade up, then trade up again) to get to #2 but that's giving up an awful lot.

If I were the Rams I would do whatever I could to dump Sam Bradford and take RG3 for myself. We've already seen Bradford as good as he will ever be, and that got them to 7-9 in the worst division in NFL history. But they sure seem staunchly committed to Bradford and are trying aggressively to get whatever they can for the #2 pick.

I agree here with Zmanishere. I think it's a 6 man draft, and I'm not including Tannehill who has tons of bust potential himself and needs to sit for a while as well. I don't see the Browns trading up because they need whomever drops to them.

[SpeedyG]

Jeff, I'd like to challenge you and every other draft expert on this notion that STL is guarenteed to trade the #2 pick this year.

It seems to me that this is a 6 player draft (Luck, RG3, Khalil, Blackmon, Richardson, Claiborne).

Those 6 guys are probably going to go in some sort of order in the top 6 (with Richardson the only one to potentially fall due to his position).

It seems like after those 6, the "bust factor" goes up exponentially. Just using Walterfootball for an example, you're looking at Reif / Wright / Coples / Brockers / Ingram / Still with your next 6 picks - try to chose which 3 of those 6 are flipping burgers when their 4 year contracts are up (I'll go with Coples, Brockers and Still - D-line is always a good bet).

I'm not sure you could show me a package that involves a pick outside of the top 6 this year that I'm even interested in?

So if I'm CLE, and my team needs are "talent on offense," why would I give up a 2 (or whatever it would take to move up 2 spots) when I'm guarenteed one of RG3 / Blackmon / Richardson at #4?

And if I'm WAS, and I know I can get one of the top guys at #6 at a position of need (likely Richardson or Claiborne), wouldn't I be better off looking at Flynn or Manning, keeping #6, and whatever else I would have given up to move up to #2?

Is #8, their #2 this year, and their #1 next year from MIA (likely in the teens / 20's) really worth moving into bust land?

I guess I'd listen to DAL for #14 and Dez Bryant.

For the record, if I were STL I'd try and move Bradford for a 2, take the cap hit this year, and start over with RG3 (guy is that talented), and I still think if RG3 wows at the combine / workouts, it's possible.

Anyways, I think if WAS goes with Flynn or Manning in FA, the trade discussions for #2 are going to be a lot less than people think. Thoughts?

Nice well-reasoned post and question.

I'm totally with you on Cleveland's thinking. And they are totally with you too, except swap in Tannehill for Richardson on your list

The reason why seemingly everyone thinks the Rams can and will deal #2 is because of RG3. He is special enough to take the risk, or at least that is the widely held perception. I buy into it too but I do think there is more risk of bust with him than a lot of people want to see; the Big 12 defenses were freaking garbage last year and Kendall Wright is a lot better than most people seem to think he is.

Washington is a big wild card with free agency like you said. Have to let that play out. For the sake of your argument, if they land Flynn that takes them out of the "moving up" business. Miami is next, then Seattle. I agree the Rams will not drop that far and the trade talks will dry up. You might see a team like Dallas or Kansas City make a tiered deal (trade up, then trade up again) to get to #2 but that's giving up an awful lot.

If I were the Rams I would do whatever I could to dump Sam Bradford and take RG3 for myself. We've already seen Bradford as good as he will ever be, and that got them to 7-9 in the worst division in NFL history. But they sure seem staunchly committed to Bradford and are trying aggressively to get whatever they can for the #2 pick.

I agree here with Zmanishere. I think it's a 6 man draft, and I'm not including Tannehill who has tons of bust potential himself and needs to sit for a while as well. I don't see the Browns trading up because they need whomever drops to them.

Agree too. Hate that my Jags are sitting at 7 on a 6 man draft. Then again, 2004 was supposed to be an 8 man draft, with the Jaguars taking Reggie Williams at 9. Then guys like Ben R. and others surprised.

[oldphatc]

if the vikes release steve hutchinson as rumored , does he have anything left at 35 yrs. old ? while i understand no 2 contracts are structured alike , could you explain how say a $60 mil . deal with a $25 mil . guarantee works . does the player automatically recieve the guarantee , or does he have to make the team each year to qualify ? i may not have asked the Question correctly but i hope you get the idea . thanks for your time and all the great feedback we're getting from you .

[Icness]

if the vikes release steve hutchinson as rumored , does he have anything left at 35 yrs. old ? while i understand no 2 contracts are structured alike , could you explain how say a $60 mil . deal with a $25 mil . guarantee works . does the player automatically recieve the guarantee , or does he have to make the team each year to qualify ? i may not have asked the Question correctly but i hope you get the idea . thanks for your time and all the great feedback we're getting from you .

If he is released one of two things will happen:
1. A team may claim him on waivers. That team will be responsible for assuming what is left on his contract, which is just under $7M in base salary and a $1.4M bonus. That bonus is the signing bonus of his contract pro-rated out over the life of the contract (7yrs/$10M)
2. He goes unclaimed. I believe the waiver period is 72 hours at this time of year but it might be less. Then he is a street free agent free to sign a new contract with any team, including the Vikings.

Either way the Vikings have to count the $1.4M bonus against their cap. They already paid him that money way back in 2006 but it still hits this year. Obviously the Vikings would like someone to claim him and then that cap hit shifts to the new team...which is why nobody will claim him on waivers even if he could still play well. And he cannot play at a near Pro Bowl level anymore. He hasn't fallen off as sharply as some other linemen when they got very near the end (Jon Ogden, Ollin Kreutz) but at best he's a one-year stopgap that will help your run blocking a little and make your QB roll to his right a little more often than he wants.

Not to pile on Ogden, who is a Hall of Fame player in my opinion, but his last season tells you everything you need to know about how ridiculous and pointless the Pro Bowl is. He was easily the worst tackle (right or left) in the whole AFC North that year, and I'm talking the difference between Drew Brees and Rex Grossman in how far behind he was, yet he was a Pro Bowl starter.

[Icness]

Agree too. Hate that my Jags are sitting at 7 on a 6 man draft. Then again, 2004 was supposed to be an 8 man draft, with the Jaguars taking Reggie Williams at 9. Then guys like Ben R. and others surprised.

This is a strange class. There is a clear top 4 (Luck, RG3, Claiborne, Richardson), followed by a pretty steep decline relative to recent years from top tier to next tier. But the next tier is unusually deep, albeit with more questions than a lot of people are going to be comfortable with.

Brockers could be every bit as good as Kevin Williams, could be the next Adam Carreker too.
Tannehill is a faster Matt Hasselbeck with a better arm, maybe.
Coples is built just like Julius Peppers, even smells like him. But he comes and goes on the field.
Blackmon is Anquan Boldin 2.0 but he has some minor flags and IMO Boldin is a very good player, not an elite talent worthy of a top 10 pick.
Kalil is more Jordan Gross or Joe Staley than Joe Thomas. Still very good players that you can win with, but not elite talents.
Upshaw is a guy I love but there are legit questions about his range and burst.
Decastro is a guard. Very little doubt in my mind he's going to make 5+ Pro Bowls but he's a guard.
Kirkpatrick is a big, physical, smart cover man but he doesn't always play at full speed and his full speed isn't elite to begin with.
Konz is very big for a modern center, though I hear he will weigh in at only 310 in Indy.
Wright is an absolute burner with great hands/vision but he's darn skinny and he's only ever run 3 routes.
Poe could be Red Byrant with better get off, or he could be a fat speed bump.
Ingram might be the best pass rusher but he plays run defense on skates way too much.

Other draftniks would put Mike Adams, Michael Floyd, Stephon Gilmore, Luke Kuechly in with that tier but I would drop them all down to the next with guys like Jenkins, Dwayne Allen, Bobby Wagner, Sanu, and Doug Wilson.

Very bad year if you need an edge pass rusher or a top-shelf safety. Great year if you need interior OL, WR, or run-and-hit LBs.

[Jaruff]

I still don't see why people like Gilmore. If I had to pick between Gilmore and Antonio Allen (as far as SC DB's in this year's draft), I'm taking Allen all day. It's a shame Al Davis isn't alive anymore because Gilmore is his type of player. Gilmore can hit hard but he's lazy in coverage.

Ingram reminds me of John Abraham. Abraham ran track in HS and Ingram was a RB before moving to SC. I'm still hoping the Panthers pick him because I think he'll make a great pairing with Charles Johnson. I can't really see Hurney taking a DT this early because we used two high picks on that position last year and Ron Edwards will be available this year.


Oh, here's a question. You mentioned Sam Bradford earlier. Even if the Rams wanted to move him, is there any team that would take the contract and the gamble?

[Roger Murdock]

If I were the Rams I would do whatever I could to dump Sam Bradford and take RG3 for myself. We've already seen Bradford as good as he will ever be, and that got them to 7-9 in the worst division in NFL history. But they sure seem staunchly committed to Bradford and are trying aggressively to get whatever they can for the #2 pick.

So Bradford peaked as a 21 year old rookie coming off an injury on a team that won 6 games combined the previous 3 seasons and had the least talented roster I have ever seen?

As a Browns fan I would trade the 4th pick for Bradford in a nanosecond, and I think our front office would too.

[Bucksfans1and2]

Jermichael Finley just resigned.

Matt Flynn tag and trade incoming??

[Icness]

I still don't see why people like Gilmore. If I had to pick between Gilmore and Antonio Allen (as far as SC DB's in this year's draft), I'm taking Allen all day. It's a shame Al Davis isn't alive anymore because Gilmore is his type of player. Gilmore can hit hard but he's lazy in coverage.

Ingram reminds me of John Abraham. Abraham ran track in HS and Ingram was a RB before moving to SC. I'm still hoping the Panthers pick him because I think he'll make a great pairing with Charles Johnson. I can't really see Hurney taking a DT this early because we used two high picks on that position last year and Ron Edwards will be available this year.


Oh, here's a question. You mentioned Sam Bradford earlier. Even if the Rams wanted to move him, is there any team that would take the contract and the gamble?

Not if they could trade up and take RG3 for significantly less $$ over the next four years.
Bradford does have his fans all around the league but I don't see anyone that would give up what the Rams would ask for--at least a 1st and a 2nd, probably more--and assume that giant deal with all the glaring injury risk. I know I wouldn't; I'll be (pleasantly) surprised if he plays more games than Michael Vick over the next two seasons. Just like last year with the Lions, the Rams just have to hope he can get healthy, stay healthy, and blossom. Too bad Bradford has a poor line and not one WR or TE that would ever see the field in Detroit.

[Icness]

Jermichael Finley just resigned.

Matt Flynn tag and trade incoming??

That seems to be the general consensus, NFL Draft Scout and some others are already tweeting about it.
Cleveland's ATL pick at #22? That seems about the best they will get for Flynn. They're not going to get #11 from Seattle, just not gonna happen and that's the last team that would have enough of a pressing need for a QB to deal a 1st for him other than Cleveland's 2nd pick. Maybe the Jets but I don't think they've got the onions to throw The Sanchize aside for Matt Flynn.

I wouldn't have paid Finley that much $$ and I wouldn't trade more than a 3rd round pick for Flynn, certainly not at the franchise price tag. $7.5M/yr for perhaps the 10th best TE in the league is just asinine, saved only by the brevity of the contract. With a deal like that the Packers are pricing themselves out of the ballpark in future deals for Jennings, Raji, Matthews, etc.

[CJ_18]

Agree too. Hate that my Jags are sitting at 7 on a 6 man draft. Then again, 2004 was supposed to be an 8 man draft, with the Jaguars taking Reggie Williams at 9. Then guys like Ben R. and others surprised.

Who were the 8 guys? (would like to know so we can see how they actually turned out)

[Icness]

Agree too. Hate that my Jags are sitting at 7 on a 6 man draft. Then again, 2004 was supposed to be an 8 man draft, with the Jaguars taking Reggie Williams at 9. Then guys like Ben R. and others surprised.

Who were the 8 guys? (would like to know so we can see how they actually turned out)

Wow, that predates me writing for RealGM and was the year before I was employed by one of the scouting services.
The 2004 top 20 picks:
Eli Manning
Robert Gallery
Larry Fitzgerald
Philip Rivers
Sean Taylor
Kellen Winslow
Roy Williams
Deangelo Hall
Reggie Williams
Dunta Robinson
Ben Roethlisberger
Jon Vilma
Lee Evans
Tommie Harris
Michael Clayton
Shawn Andrews
DJ Williams
Will Smith
Vernon Carey
Kenechi Udeze
#21 was Vince Wilfork
of the rest of the first round only Steven Jackson, Chris Gamble, Michael Jenkins and Jason Babin are still in the league.
Lots of guys that are already done because of injuries--Harris, Andrews, Udeze , Taylor (RIP)
Not really many top 20 busts other than Reggie Williams (sorry Speedy) and Clayton, who was arguably the best rookie but then fell off incredibly. Some guys didn't meet expectations (Gallery, Williams, Carey) but if they're still starting in the league--and almost all those guys are--then it's hard to call them a bust after 8 years.

[LAKESHOW]

Matt Kalil should go #1. He has MY best and highest grade in the draft, with luck being a close second.

[Icness]

Matt Kalil should go #1. He has MY best and highest grade in the draft, with luck being a close second.

He made a very positive impression in Indy. Very hard to see him not being a top 3 pick. Having his brother being one of the best centers in the league really helps his cause.

[Rafael122]

So...at this point what would it take to get Griffin? Rumor out there is that Skins should give up the 6th, their 2nd round and 3rd round pick plus their 2013 1st round pick for him. Would that be enough?

[Jaruff]

As someone who was involved in scouting, why are the 40-yard numbers so important? Unless you're Al Davis, I don't see why anyone would go "well he's an average football but he can run fast ... first round pick". We see guys go up and down the charts every year based on 40 time alone and it just seems weird to discredit hours of game tape over a brisk sprint.

Matt Kalil should go #1. He has MY best and highest grade in the draft, with luck being a close second.

He made a very positive impression in Indy. Very hard to see him not being a top 3 pick. Having his brother being one of the best centers in the league really helps his cause.

It's a shame he won't fall down to Carolina. I'd love to see him next to his brother.

[Icness]

So...at this point what would it take to get Griffin? Rumor out there is that Skins should give up the 6th, their 2nd round and 3rd round pick plus their 2013 1st round pick for him. Would that be enough?

Speculated asking price by STL: a top 10 pick this year, a 2nd round this year, a 1st round next year and a either a 3rd this year or a 2nd next. The top ten this year is non-negotiable, the higher the better. A functional DB or WR with size to spice up the deal wouldn't hurt either.

I believe in the "reports" that Shanahan would give up 1-2-4 this year plus 1-3 next year.