2012 Ask Jeff Risdon a Question

[hermes]

i'm excited for it, not overly but still excited

vikes are just messing with me on this pick, i just don't want them to mess it up


speaking of that: Jeff, are the vikes trying to throw everyone off base with this latest comment by fraizer? http://football.realgm.com/src_wiretap_ ... _changers/

seems like they are trying to say everything they can to make sure no one thinks they are committing to kalil, are they really going in a different direction or is it all just a smokescreen

[Icness]

i'm excited for it, not overly but still excited

vikes are just messing with me on this pick, i just don't want them to mess it up


speaking of that: Jeff, are the vikes trying to throw everyone off base with this latest comment by fraizer? http://football.realgm.com/src_wiretap_ ... _changers/

seems like they are trying to say everything they can to make sure no one thinks they are committing to kalil, are they really going in a different direction or is it all just a smokescreen

Leslie Frazier is not a poker player. He means what he says. I've been pretty insistent that people are sorely mistaken by assuming Kalil to MIN and now it seems popular opinion has swung my way. I did not base my insistence on hunch either; I'm the guy who knew they were taking Ponder last year and Cook the year prior. Not to get all cocksure or anything but there are teams where I'm a monkey with darts like everyone else and then there are teams that I know...

[Susan]

First round pick will absolutely be in the defensive front seven. Could be Kuechly, could be Mercilus, could be McClellin, could be Brockers, could be Poe, could be Upshaw. Probably in that order of preference but that is based on info I got last week.

Second round will either be WR or CB unless the right OL is there or they fell back in the first and went off the above board and surprised with the 1st. You will see a RB taken sometime Saturday and don't be surprised to see more than one OL taken.

I find it interesting that you didn't mention Coples. So based on that recent report that certain teams see Coples as a 2nd rounder, I'm guessing you've heard the Bears are down on him as well or will he be gone by then?

I really like the fit with Kuechly alongside Urlacher and Briggs and eventually taking over for Urlacher once the time comes. It would give us a real nice upgrade in the short term and an answer in the long term.

[Icness]

Coples is not a Rod Marinelli kind of player. He'd rather have high-effort lower skill players (think Idonije) than underacheiving mega-talents.

I think Coples goes #20 to Tennessee but I would not be at all surprised if he dropped. I still think Carolina could take him higher too, very hard to slot him right now.

[Dr Positivity]

Icness I think you missed my question:

Can you elaborate on the Bills drafting WR/QB/TE/CB/CB. Last year the lack of depth in the O line destroyed the season, are they really going to spend all 5 picks without trying to address that? Also a QB with a good Rd 2 pick would disappoint me a ton. I won't try to say I know anything about these prospects but position wise that draft disgusts me

[Icness]

Icness I think you missed my question:

Can you elaborate on the Bills drafting WR/QB/TE/CB/CB. Last year the lack of depth in the O line destroyed the season, are they really going to spend all 5 picks without trying to address that? Also a QB with a good Rd 2 pick would disappoint me a ton. I won't try to say I know anything about these prospects but position wise that draft disgusts me

Sorry I did

I think tackle is certainly in play at any draft spot but probably not the first round. I would be surprised if they didn't take a corner and a WR in the first three rounds. QB was just a hunch pick but it's not far-fetched.

[Da Schwab]

I'm not a Dolphins fan, but I feel like I've asked more questions about them than my Giants, but they just intrigue me more. Anywho, here's another question about them...

You have them taking Ingram in the first, and waiting all the way until the fourth to take Russell Wilson. Do you think they are willing to turn Wilson into a project QB, or will they go with what they have and make him some sort of Brad Smith type guy?

[Icness]

I'm not a Dolphins fan, but I feel like I've asked more questions about them than my Giants, but they just intrigue me more. Anywho, here's another question about them...

You have them taking Ingram in the first, and waiting all the way until the fourth to take Russell Wilson. Do you think they are willing to turn Wilson into a project QB, or will they go with what they have and make him some sort of Brad Smith type guy?

This was more of a function of them not taking Tannehill and seeing how it flowed. But teams absolutely see Wilson as a QB only. I think his draft slot will surprise some prominent draftniks.

[kdawg32086]

OK Jeff, my favorite draft guru. What do you think of my mock...I stole some of these from you and tried to do my best Jeff Risdon impression when slotting players.

1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
2. Washington Redskins (from STL): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
3. Minnesota Vikings: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
4. Cleveland Browns: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
6. St. Louis Rams (from WAS): Matt Kalil T, USC --> for Buffalo
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
8. Miami Dolphins: Melvin Ingram, LB/DE, South Carolina
9. Carolina Panthers: Quentin Coples, DE, North Carolina
10. Buffalo Bills: Fletcher Cox DT, Mississippi St. ---> for St. Louis
11. Kansas City Chiefs: Donta Hightower, LB, Alabama
12. Seattle Seahawks: Courtney Upshaw, DE, Alabama
13. Arizona Cardinals: Riley Reiff, T, Iowa
14. Dallas Cowboys: Mark Barron, S, Alabama
15. Philadelphia Eagles: Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
16. New York Jets: Cordy Glenn, G/T Georgia
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from OAK): David Decastro, G, Stanford
18. San Diego Chargers: Andre Branch, LB, Clemson
19. Chicago Bears: Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College
20. Tennessee Titans: Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
22. Cleveland Browns (from ATL): Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
23. Detroit Lions: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kevin Zeitler, OG, Wisconsin
25. Denver Broncos: Devon Still, DT, Penn St.
26. Houston Texans: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
27. New England Patriots (from NO): Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
28. Green Bay Packers: Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
29. Baltimore Ravens: Bobby Wagner, LB, Utah State
30. San Francisco 49ers: Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan St.
31. New England Patriots: Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois
32. New York Giants: David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech

[Icness]

First ten are eminently possible.

A little high for all of 11-13 picks, but 14-17 could all be nails. I don't think Gilmore is falling that far, nor Mercilus, and replce Branch with McClellin at #18. I like the Wilson pick at 32 but I don't see it happening. Most people will tell you you're crazy for having Wagner in the first but I can see it, nice late-round surprise twist.

I'm doing a team-less 100-spot mock tonight for nflsfuture.com, should be done and on that site Wed. night if I quit tinkering with it. Y'all might find that handy if you're into the "how many of the first 100 picks can you name" contests. Every player you listed made my top 40, though Janoris Jenkins is a total wild card at this point.

[kdawg32086]

Why does everyone like McClellin so much? I don't get it...

[PhilipNelsonFan]

What's going on at the C position? Konz seems to be losing ground fast (perhaps a return to normalcy for his draft stock) and I keep seeing Western Oregon's Jason Slowey (who I'd never heard of before two days ago) as a riser.

[hermes]

is there going to be a lot of draft day trading or are teams going to stick where they are after seeing the kings ransom the redskins paid to get #2

[Icness]

Why does everyone like McClellin so much? I don't get it...

I've gotten into this on Twitter the last week or so. I'm hearing comparisons to MIke Vrabel and Clay Matthews the Elder. It's crazy talk!

I sense a tremendous deal of resentment by scouts and draftniks about his rise. He is a guy that coaches are bound to like more than scouts because he does so many things pretty well. He moves well in space, he has decent instintcs, he can get to the QB in twists and stunts, he can run with (most) tight ends in coverage, he tackles pretty well.

My issue with him is that he doesn't really have a position and he's not a dynamic pass rusher. I think he's going to be a capable starting SAM backer after a year of adjustment, along the lines of a Chris Gocong. You need guys like that to build a really good defense but it's not a huge difference-making spot. I wouldn't spend more than about the 55th pick for a guy that is going to produce on the level of 70 tackles, 4 sacks, a forced fumble, 3 PDs and an INT every year. Quality football player, not an impact player. If I'm the Chargers, Bears, or Packers I want better pass rushing bang for my first round buck. That I mentioned the Chargers there is not coincidental...

[Icness]

What's going on at the C position? Konz seems to be losing ground fast (perhaps a return to normalcy for his draft stock) and I keep seeing Western Oregon's Jason Slowey (who I'd never heard of before two days ago) as a riser.

The big ssue with Konz is medical. Has missed workout season with an ankle injury that is reportedly not healing as well as expected. That might be because he severely sprained the same ankle a year earlier. He also had a chest issue a couple years ago. Missed at least 2 games each of his last three years. That's more of an issue at center than any other line spot becuase most teams don't specifically keep a backup center, but rather a C/G swing man and usually with a huge dropoff.

I think he still goes in the first half of the 2nd round but he could slide further.

Slowey is a candidate for Mr. Irrelevant. Never seen him play, can't comment.

[Icness]

is there going to be a lot of draft day trading or are teams going to stick where they are after seeing the kings ransom the redskins paid to get #2

That's a great question. Nobody really knows how the new CBA and lower rookie deals will play into that. I do think either the Jets or Eagles trade into the top 10, and I do find credibility that St. Louis and Cleveland swap if the Rams truly want Richardson (I believe they do). But as far as the RG3 deal or Julio Jones deal, I think we saw it already this year. The closest I think we'll see to that is a team like Arizona or the Jets trading their 13 1st to get back into the 12 1st, and they will absolutely find takers for that in the final 8 picks of the first.

[Dalbi]

Icness,

What are your thoughts on Stephen Hill going in the late first round? Do you think he is worth that pick? Obviously a lot to love but I have also heard some people think of him more of a 2nd or 3rd round talent.

[Icness]

Icness,

What are your thoughts on Stephen Hill going in the late first round? Do you think he is worth that pick? Obviously a lot to love but I have also heard some people think of him more of a 2nd or 3rd round talent.

I would be real nervous taking him that early. I haven't met him or know much about him personally, but on tape he looks rawer than D. Thomas did at GT and they asked him to do almost nothing but run block or 7-9 routes (post/corner/fly). I don't see the flexibility in the hips or ankles that Thomas had, or that other big guys like Dwayne Bowe and Vincent Jackson have. The raw physical potential is great. I think he's going to have a career like Darrius Heyward-Bey, real disappointing early but once the coaching clicks and he gets comfortable with the game he's got a chance to be very good. DHB played very well last year (finally!) and I think it will take 2-3 years with Hill too before he doesn't seem like he's badly overdrafted.

[ohara]

Jeff, how serious is the talk that Coples is falling fast to where he might not go until after #20 pick Thursday? I hear he is falling on many Boards. But Pat Yasinskas at ESPN posted that Marty Hurney for Carolina went to have a meeting with Coples Monday night in Chapel Hill. Hurney is not know for smokescreens. They met with Cam a couple days before the Draft to make sure he was their pick. I hope this is not a repeat. I would be very disappointed if they took Coples over Kuechly at this point. I'd also rather have Cox or Ingram before Coples. Please tell me that Carolina is NOT going to draft Coples. Please!

EDIT: And now I read a report from Charlotte beat writers where they are saying they have heard rublings of Miami strongly considering Coples at #8? Really? If Tanneyhill was there for Carolina at #9, they would be very happy I think. They would be in a position to get a pretty nice deal to trade back. Think that might be the best case scenario for Carolina, short of Blackmon falling to them at #9.

[Icness]

I talked to someone over the weekend who told me Coples is either going to Carolina at #9 (it's why I mocked him there) or he's falling to at least Denver, barring trades. He's almost universally seen as sort of apathetic, and he's not a quick-twitch athlete. Not a huge first-round clamoring for power-rushing base ends to begin with.

You are correct about Hurney, he's not a guy that likes to play games in the media. Having said that, I really don't buy the Kuechly talk at #9. Just a gut opinion though. Doing the final mock tomorrow and right now I'm still leaning towards leaving Coples there. I have to think they'll take Ingram over him though.