Some early thoughts

Post #1 » by **Icness** » Tue Sep 21, 2010 5:24 pm

Some random late September draft thoughts/observations:
--look at the teams that are going to (probably) be picking in the top 10: BUF, CLE, DET, CAR, SEA, DEN, JAX, TB, STL, SF, maybe PHI/NYG or even BAL if the offense continues to suck. Only BUF, JAX, and SF don't have a (potential) franchise QB in place already, and Garrard isn't the problem in JAX. Before everyone gets in a froth about all these QBs going high, remember that the demand from the bad teams just isn't there this year. So many recent high QB picks have watered down the high-pick demand. Barring some trades or some unexpected team collapsing (MIN and DAL come to mind) I can't see any way more than 2 QBs go in the top 12.
...and one of those sure as hell won't be Jake Locker. Let me rephrase that: no way in hell should Jake Locker be a top 15 pick right now. Everyone talks about all this great potential he's got, but he's nowhere close to reaching it. He's a less accurate Alex Smith--and that's precisely what he's going to be for at least his first two NFL seasons. I wouldn't touch him before where Clausen went in the last draft, and I'd only do it then if I had a great QB developer as a coach and a veteran starter for him to learn behind for 2-3 years.

--the WR crop looks strong, but every guy has some warts. Julio Jones is my top guy, but it doesn't always look like he's going full tilt. I know one scout that knows him well and he thinks Jones doesn't really love football all that much, he lacks passion for the game. That's scary. A.J. Green is arguably just as talented but he's got off-field baggage and some injury issues. Jon Baldwin is IMO a Dez Bryant clone physically but his routes are not sharp and he'll drop too many throws. Ryan Broyles is super-shifty but he's so light and lacking in strength, he gets tackled by gentle pushes. DeVier Posey isn't explosive or as athletically gifted but he's probably got the best hands and is easily the best blocker. Michael Floyd is too straight-linish and not quick out of breaks but he's got such great size and hands.A couple under-the-radar guys that IMO will climb: DeAndre Brown from SoMiss and Leonard Hankerson from Miami. Hankerson is the only senior on this list and he's only in school because he hasn't been able to stay healthy long enough to show his potential.

--The preseason OT rankings look almost silly now. From what I've seen so far the best tackle is DeMarcus Love of Arkansas, with BC's Anthony Costanzo well behind him. I liked Miss. State's Derek Sherrod a lot more than I thought I would but he's a 2nd-3rd round RT. Gabe Carimi has not impressed, too stiff and his feet are slow and he's too tall to move inside. Barksdale at LSU is a lesser prospect than Ciron Black, who went undrafted. Miami's Orlando Franklin is a better guard than tackle. Matt Reynlds of BYU is the most intriguing junior but I need to see more of him. In short, there's exactly one guy--Love--that I would feel comfortable using a 1st on and installing at left tackle right away.

--after all those safeties last draft, I haven't seen one that should go in the first two rounds yet. Rahim Moore is the cream but most people expect him to stay in school. For now. I like WVU's Robert Sands but he's not a cover guy and teams want safeties that can cover.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com

asdf1223 · Post #2 » by **asdf1223** » Tue Sep 21, 2010 10:10 pm

I hope you are not saying Charlie Whitehurst is a franchise QB.

I still think Locker is worth a top 20 pick. Washington was horribly overmatched at every position. But the thing with him is except versus USC he has never elevated his team's play. IMO if your are going to be a top 5 pick your are guaranteed to go to a cellar dweller severely lacking talent kinda like Washington is right now. You need to make your team mates better. The best way for locker to succeed is probably in a team with a ton of weapons like San Francisco, Philly or even Buffalo.

Minnesota's schedule and Favre's offseason retirement will force them to pick a Quarterback i think.

Post #3 » by **Rafael122** » Wed Sep 22, 2010 2:36 pm

Locker should have come out last year, gotten his big bonus money before teams figured out how inconsistent he is. Now it's going to cost him tens of millions of dollars. I really like Mallett though, watching his game against the Bulldogs last weekend, the kid's got poise, a good arm, etc. It would be a great pickup for the bills.

Post #4 » by **ReasonablySober** » Wed Sep 22, 2010 4:20 pm

I noticed you didn't have Adrian Clayborn in the first round. Oversight or are you just not a fan?

Post #5 » by **Wade-A-Holic** » Wed Sep 22, 2010 4:57 pm

Just read your first mock. I'd be filled with an incredible amount of joy if Minnesota was stupid enough to draft Locker.

Post #6 » by **ReasonablySober** » Wed Sep 22, 2010 5:33 pm

Wade-A-Holic wrote:Just read your first mock. I'd be filled with an incredible amount of joy if Minnesota was stupid enough to draft Locker.

I'd also be happy with Greg Jones, though not if it meant passing on Clayborn.

Post #7 » by **studcrackers** » Wed Sep 22, 2010 9:03 pm

where could a guy like kendall hunter get drafted jeff? also does a guy like Ugo Chinasa have any draft stock at all?

DirtyDez · Post #8 » by **DirtyDez** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 7:46 am

I took a look at your mock 1.0 but i think AZ goes Right Tackle instead of LB. Brandon Keith isn't working out. I like Solder and Reynolds if they can switch sides and would be ecstatic if Demarcus Love fell to mid 1st round. We can address LB in the second round (like we did with Daryl Washington).

SpeedyG · Post #9 » by **SpeedyG** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 5:01 am

Icness wrote:Some random late September draft thoughts/observations:
--look at the teams that are going to (probably) be picking in the top 10: BUF, CLE, DET, CAR, SEA, DEN, JAX, TB, STL, SF, maybe PHI/NYG or even BAL if the offense continues to suck. Only BUF, JAX, and SF don't have a (potential) franchise QB in place already, and Garrard isn't the problem in JAX.

Garrard isn't certainly the only problem in Jax, but he's definitely not the solution either. He's 32 years old who's shown only one good year in all of his years starting, and has not shown any improvement since that 07 season. The team is in dire needs of new infusion of talent at the QB spot. It cannot take another year after this season of Garrard at the helm again.

I'm not convinced on Locker either, but Mallet and Luck are looking pretty good to me right now, even Ponder.

Roger Murdock · Post #10 » by **Roger Murdock** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 3:44 pm

I was a huge fan of Locker coming into this season and thought he could put it all together. Now, no way in hell. I do really like Andrew Luck though. Mallet is good but hes not my style of quarterback. Ponder shouldn't be a first rounder.

Post #11 » by **Worm Guts** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 5:02 pm

I'm worried Mallet's lack of mobility. You get him off balance and he makes bad decisions.

Post #12 » by **Icness** » Thu Sep 30, 2010 8:56 pm

Worm Guts wrote:I'm worried Mallet's lack of mobility. You get him off balance and he makes bad decisions.

He sure did that against Bama, but he made some great throws from awkward spots in the game before that. His footwork is terrible when he's out of the pocket, but that's true of Rivers and Big Ben and even Tom Brady. It's the decision-making process that's most important though and he failed in the Bama test.

The one thing about Terrelle Pryor that has really impressed me this year is his improved decision-making when pressured. His mechanics don't break down and he finds the correct option. Luck is the same way but he doesn't quite have Pryor's cannon.

SpeedyG · Post #13 » by **SpeedyG** » Sun Oct 3, 2010 5:28 pm

Icness wrote:
Worm Guts wrote:I'm worried Mallet's lack of mobility. You get him off balance and he makes bad decisions.

He sure did that against Bama, but he made some great throws from awkward spots in the game before that. His footwork is terrible when he's out of the pocket, but that's true of Rivers and Big Ben and even Tom Brady. It's the decision-making process that's most important though and he failed in the Bama test.

The one thing about Terrelle Pryor that has really impressed me this year is his improved decision-making when pressured. His mechanics don't break down and he finds the correct option. Luck is the same way but he doesn't quite have Pryor's cannon.

Wasn't a big fan of Terrelle Pryor, but I'm starting to notice. Think he can make that Donovan McNabb type-leap and turn into a legit passing QB in the league?

Post #14 » by **Icness** » Thu Oct 7, 2010 4:01 am

SpeedyG wrote:
Wasn't a big fan of Terrelle Pryor, but I'm starting to notice. Think he can make that Donovan McNabb type-leap and turn into a legit passing QB in the league?

I think he's more Randall Cunningham with his long legs and bigger wind-up and longer stride into his throws. He still needs some work and some polish but he is as fast, if not faster, than Michael Vick as a runner and he's learning to use his height to his advantage as a thrower. He is a legit 6'7" and has grown at least an inch in the last 9 months.

TSE · Post #15 » by **TSE** » Sat Oct 9, 2010 7:29 pm

How about some team ends up with both Pryor and Denard? That would be cool.

Post #16 » by **Rafael122** » Sun Oct 10, 2010 11:11 pm

Thoughts on Cam Newton?

Post #17 » by **Icness** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 4:42 am

Rafael122 wrote:Thoughts on Cam Newton?

I need more of a body of work, haven't seen the UK game yet either. Initial impression is that he's got great poise to go with his athleticism, and that's a great starting point.

Lots of draft stuff in this weeks $.10 and I'll have a draft piece up on Wed. too.

b_roy7 · Post #18 » by **b_roy7** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 5:21 am

LaMichael James any shot in the bigs?

DirtyDez · Post #19 » by **DirtyDez** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 6:14 am

LeMichael James can be better than Jahvid Best if he bulks up and works on is pass catching skills in the flat. The screen pass game in the NFL is so important these days.

Post #20 » by **Icness** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:29 pm

James has that instant acceleration and can cut at full speed that is so desireable. He looks scrawny to me though and he doesn't look like he reads his blockers all that well. He just runs real fast, doesn't set things up. He's got time to develop and learn; IIRC he's only 19.