Mock Draft 4.0

Post #1 » by **Icness** » Fri Jan 7, 2011 9:25 pm

http://football.realgm.com/src_feature/ ... ersion_40/

No Luck = more "monkey with dart" action.

Let the commentary about the QBs at the beginning sink in. Consider that none of the QBs in this draft grade anywhere close to Stafford or Bradford or Sanchez. I evaluate Mallett as similar to Joe Flacco or Chad Henne, Locker as similar to the bad Alex Smith, Gabbert as David Garrard-like (though I need to watch more). I just might like Cam Newton better than any other QB but I'm very hesitant to take him in the top 10 based on 12 college games in a gimmick offense, and I know many GMs will feel the same way. IMO it's a much better year to chase after guys like Kyle Orton or Vince Young or even give Leinart or Alex Smith a fresh start.

trwi7 · Post #2 » by **trwi7** » Fri Jan 7, 2011 9:34 pm

Really don't like that Packers pick. Would much rather have the last four picks of the 1st with our pick than Taylor.

ohara · Post #3 » by **ohara** » Fri Jan 7, 2011 10:31 pm

I can see the Panthers taking Bowers or Fairley now with the #1 pick. Could very easily see them being interested in Kyle Orton via trade. Jerry Richardson said there would be no trades unless the new CBA were in place. If there is one, I can see Steve Smith on the trading block to a contender for another 1st rounder. If NE were interested, #17 and #33 would get that done and give Brady a huge weapon for the next few years.

Roger Murdock · Post #4 » by **Roger Murdock** » Sat Jan 8, 2011 12:05 am

Miller at 3 eh? I think hes a bust.

DirtyDez · Post #5 » by **DirtyDez** » Sat Jan 8, 2011 1:26 am

I'm sorry but...

lmao

Solder and Miller in the top 5???

Post #6 » by **Icness** » Sat Jan 8, 2011 4:47 am

DirtyDez wrote:I'm sorry but...

lmao

Solder and Miller in the top 5???

Tackles and pass rushers always get overdrafted. I like Miller up there but I wouldn't touch Solder that early. Solder could very realistically go #3 overall. Costanzo could get up that high too, but Solder has higher upside.

This draft is strange in that the best depth is at positions that traditionally don't get drafted real high. WR, CB, OG, DE, NT is where the strength of this draft lies, and a lot of those DE's aren't great NFL pass rushers (Heyward, Clayborne, Bailey). This is the worst QB draft in a long time, worst TE draft perhaps ever, lousy top-end safety class, lousy top-end offensive tackle class, deep RB class but nobody top-notch like recent years. I know a lot of teams are hoping that some offensive tackles and safeties really step up in the workout season. The last two drafts have been much better at the top than this one; only Bowers would make my top 10 prospects a year ago if all were in the same pool.

Post #7 » by **Icness** » Sat Jan 8, 2011 4:52 am

trwi7 wrote:Really don't like that Packers pick. Would much rather have the last four picks of the 1st with our pick than Taylor.

That pick is actually based on my witnessing a Packers scout at the Texas Bowl who was there very intently watching Taylor and Corey Liuget. I couldn't tell you if he liked either guy but the Packers are not the type of team that scouts players they aren't serious about.

Taylor is going to be very good as an immovable object-type 3-4 nose. Reminds me of Jamal Williams but not quite as quick with his feet.

trwi7 · Post #8 » by **trwi7** » Sat Jan 8, 2011 5:17 am

So say they draft him. Raji moves to an end?

94feet · Post #9 » by **94feet** » Sat Jan 8, 2011 5:26 am

As a Colts fan, I'm looking at Gabe Carimi with the 23rd pick. The guy is huge and was vital to Wisconsin's sucess, he's the offensive line prospect I like for the Colts. For the 2nd rd. I'd rather select Nevis who in your mock was right after our selection.

Nice mock, I was always enjoy them. But I too think V. Miller and Solder are a little too high. I could see Miami taking Newton (Ingram wold be nice for them), football personality to match with the Heat squad down there and they need to find an answer at QB.

Post #10 » by **Wade-A-Holic** » Sat Jan 8, 2011 6:31 pm

Icness wrote:
trwi7 wrote:Really don't like that Packers pick. Would much rather have the last four picks of the 1st with our pick than Taylor.

That pick is actually based on my witnessing a Packers scout at the Texas Bowl who was there very intently watching Taylor and Corey Liuget. I couldn't tell you if he liked either guy but the Packers are not the type of team that scouts players they aren't serious about.

Taylor is going to be very good as an immovable object-type 3-4 nose. Reminds me of Jamal Williams but not quite as quick with his feet.

I've actually wondered with the Packers if they've been running so much out of their 2-4 nickel this year because injuries and personnel have dictated it or just because Capers prefers it? I'm not a fan of Taylor with that pick, but I wonder if the Packers actually want to run more 30 fronts.

ZedgetRedd · Post #11 » by **ZedgetRedd** » Sat Jan 8, 2011 11:02 pm

I think the Panthers go Green over Bowers. I would shoot somebody if the Pats drafted Kerrigan when Dareus was still available, and I doubt they draft Leshoure when a guy like Bailey or Brandon Harris is still available. Also, is Mallet really a second rounder? And I don't see Justin Blackmon anywhere.

Post #12 » by **Manhattan Project** » Sat Jan 8, 2011 11:19 pm

Watching the Jets defense age right before their eyes and their lack of pass rush I would like to think that the pick will lie on the defensive side of the ball. Allen Bailey or Justin Houston if I had to get a monkey to throw a dart.

WAYSA · Post #13 » by **WAYSA** » Sun Jan 9, 2011 7:28 am

Love where you have Corey Liuget. Maybe the best kept secret in this draft? An absolutely insane athlete for a DT. He returned kickoffs as a DT at 270 lbs in High School. Just a freaky athlete. Would love the Bears to nab him at the end of the first.

How much does Jon Baldwin falling have to do with character concerns? He seems like a lock to bomb interviews, IMO.

Also, Aldon Smith just declared. Top-20 pick, easily, right?

Post #14 » by **lpsevier** » Sun Jan 9, 2011 12:22 pm

LB and CB for the Falcons?

You got some splaining to do, I would have told you those were our LEAST positions of need.

Post #15 » by **Icness** » Sun Jan 9, 2011 3:33 pm

WAYSA wrote:Love where you have Corey Liuget. Maybe the best kept secret in this draft? An absolutely insane athlete for a DT. He returned kickoffs as a DT at 270 lbs in High School. Just a freaky athlete. Would love the Bears to nab him at the end of the first.

How much does Jon Baldwin falling have to do with character concerns? He seems like a lock to bomb interviews, IMO.

Also, Aldon Smith just declared. Top-20 pick, easily, right?

I first picked up on Liuget last year (09) when he took over the Michigan game. He's in much better shape now and I love his agility for a big man. He's similar to Tyson Alualu last year, a guy that scouts know and love but the general fan has no clue. Better NFL prospect than Peria Jerry or Ziggy Hood, both of whom were similar in college and were 1st rounders.

Smith is certainly top 30, not sure about how high he'll get. The NFL advisory committee told him he was a 1st rounder and they don't do that very often.

Baldwin is, hmmm...how to say it diplomatically...okay...let's just say the Pitt job just got more attractive for potential coaches even though they're losing their best wideout by a wide margin. He's stiff in his routes and doesn't exactly light up the practice field or weight room either.

Post #16 » by **NO-KG-AI** » Sun Jan 9, 2011 5:31 pm

Will the Saints be forced into taking a LB now after Marshawn Lynch basically put our LB situation on display?

I honestly think like our first 5 picks or so should all be in the defensive front 7 or the offensive line.

St.Nick · Post #17 » by **St.Nick** » Sun Jan 9, 2011 6:07 pm

Thanks for the latest mock, buddy.

Who do you think are the best West Coast Offense QB's in this draft, Ic?

Cammo101 · Post #18 » by **Cammo101** » Sun Jan 9, 2011 8:38 pm

This mock is kind of a mess IMO. Solder and Von Miller are way too high, Peterson, Amukamara, and dareus way too low. The way I see it there are 8 guys in this draft clearly on the top tier, and those guys are...Bowers, Fairley, Green, Peterson, Amukamara, Dareus, Newton, and Mallett. Possibly Quinn depending on how he works out.

Post #19 » by **wetsthebed** » Mon Jan 10, 2011 3:18 am

ohara wrote:If NE were interested, #17 and #33 would get that done and give Brady a huge weapon for the next few years.

So we'd be trading essentially two first rounders for Steve **** Smith? God no.

Post #20 » by **Icness** » Mon Jan 10, 2011 5:04 pm

Thanks for the latest mock, buddy.

Who do you think are the best West Coast Offense QB's in this draft, Ic?

Short-area accuracy is not a strong suit for any of the upper tier guys. Jake Locker completed less than 45% of his passes under 10 yards. Kaepernick needs some grooming and a quicker release but he's probably the best rhythm passer. Pat Devlin fits the bill of WC offense but he doesn't have the gun to challenge deep. Mallett is the anti-WC QB. I think Newton has potential here too but he'll have a learning curve and he fits better in a system like Pittsburgh's. Later rounds I think Ricky Stanzi can handle it. Big Senior Bowl week for him.

Will the Saints be forced into taking a LB now after Marshawn Lynch basically put our LB situation on display?

I strongly believe they were leaning that direction anyways, but the awful tackling the last couple of weeks has to convince them of it. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they went LB/OL/DL in their first 4-5 picks. They need to turn over their entire LB corps over the next 2 seasons because I doubt they pay Vilma what he'll ask for.

LB and CB for the Falcons?
You got some splaining to do, I would have told you those were our LEAST positions of need.

Dimitroff is the kind of GM that is drafting for 2-3 years down the road, not necessarily the most immediate need. IMO the biggest need is TE to replace Gonzo, but it's a wretched year to need a TE. I know they're looking at OL depth/developmental starters but I suspect they'll wait on those for later, better value. I think they're a great candidate to trade backwards and pick up extra late picks, but this mock format doesn't allow that sort of forecasting. Next mock will have commentary and address stuff like that. FYI I know they've already contacted Asomugha's agent, unofficially of course...

Just in general: I really don't get the glowing love for Marcell Dareus. He's a lot like Glenn Dorsey IMO, a 3-4 DE/4-3 DT tweener. Dareus is probably better against the run at the same point, and his experience in a 30 front helps him, but they are similar players: quick big men that like to line up in the B gap and crash outside to get a pass rush. Everyone immediately thinks of the shot he put on Colt McCoy but nobody bothers to notice that he gets too far upfield too much and doesn't get off blocks that well. He's a 1st rounder, but I have a real hard time seeing him go top 10 with his position and productivity. If he went to Southern Miss or Arizona people wouldn't think so highly of him. Most of his sacks he got came as the second guy in, reacting off the rush of others. That's an important NFL skill but if you're going top 10 you need to generate more on your own. Or else you're Tyson Jackson and about to get sent packing two years after going #3 overall. Dareus is a good example of someone the public likes better than the scouting community, a la Rey Maualuga.