Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread

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Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread 

Post#1 » by Icness » Thu Mar 10, 2011 3:01 pm

Did this last year and it worked pretty well, keeps things more organized.

If you have a question about a player, or a trend, or a positional group, throw it here and I'll try to answer it quickly. Don't ask me what you team is going to do, because I won't know that until late April, if at all.
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Re: Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread 

Post#2 » by Icness » Thu Mar 10, 2011 3:05 pm

I'll kick it off with one I got via email this morning:

Would you take Mark Ingram at #15 or do you think that's a reach for Miami?

I would not take him at #15, not even as desperate as Miami is going to be for a RB without Brown and Ricky. I would take either the best available OL or OLB/DE. Ingram belongs in the 1st round but not that high when there is so much talent on defense available.
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Re: Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread 

Post#3 » by lpsevier » Thu Mar 10, 2011 3:13 pm

How many QB's go in the first 40 picks?

I feel like every year people say max of 3 and 6 get taken.
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Re: Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread 

Post#4 » by ChronicKerr » Thu Mar 10, 2011 3:16 pm

I've seen different mocks and big boards rate the top OL very differently from the beginning of the process until now. How do you rank the top OL in this draft 1-10 as far as being able to contribute right away?
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Re: Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread 

Post#5 » by TSE » Thu Mar 10, 2011 3:24 pm

Nobody ever asks questions about FBs, so I will ask how do you rank the top FB's according to strictly blocking skills? And what round do you predict the first of these FBs to go off the board?

Do you see any stud Punters? If not anybody special then feel free to skip that question, but what about Alex Henery, do you think it's realistic that he could possibly do both jobs and help a team save a roster spot, or do you think teams would be too conservative to even attempt having only one K/P on the roster? What round do you see him being drafted?

Also, is your Mark Ingram answer any different after he cut down his 40 time yesterday, or was that already considered?
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Re: Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread 

Post#6 » by Roger Murdock » Thu Mar 10, 2011 5:52 pm

Who are the players you rate much differently than most scouts, be it you either are much higher or much lower on them than others?
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Re: Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread 

Post#7 » by hermes » Thu Mar 10, 2011 8:37 pm

Jeff,

Where do you place Ricky Stanzi in this year's QB class, i know the Hawkeyes had a less than spectacular year, but statistically Stanzi was very good

http://www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com/P ... 3-2011.htm
There is an article about how Stanzi is the best QB in this class (according to this guy's mathematical formula)

I don't know about the best, but I think he's very underrated and not talked about nearly enough
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Re: Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread 

Post#8 » by Icness » Thu Mar 10, 2011 9:10 pm

lpsevier wrote:How many QB's go in the first 40 picks?

I feel like every year people say max of 3 and 6 get taken.


Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert are locks. Ryan Mallett is a probably, I'd put it at 90%. Jake Locker is a maybe, probably 50%. Colin Kaepernick is a 10% chance.
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Re: Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread 

Post#9 » by Icness » Thu Mar 10, 2011 9:17 pm

ChronicKerr wrote:I've seen different mocks and big boards rate the top OL very differently from the beginning of the process until now. How do you rank the top OL in this draft 1-10 as far as being able to contribute right away?


Contribute right away:
1. Danny Watkins
2. Mike Pouncey
3. Anthony Castonzo
4. Tyron Smith
5. Rodney Hudson
6. Derek Sherrod
7. Gabe Carimi
8. Will Rackley
9. Stefen Wisniewski
10. Clint Boling or James Carpenter, depending on if you want a guard or a tackle.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Danny Watkins can make the next 8 Pro Bowls as a right guard, and IMO he can more than hold his own at RT too.
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Re: Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread 

Post#10 » by studcrackers » Thu Mar 10, 2011 9:33 pm

i havent heard of watkins, you think it's that great to take a shot on a 26 year old rookie? why is he so old

anyways i guess for the time being, where do you project tyron smith to go? and what's the boom/bust potential since he's definitely seemed to be the high riser ever since the season ended
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Re: Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread 

Post#11 » by Icness » Thu Mar 10, 2011 9:33 pm

TSE wrote:Nobody ever asks questions about FBs, so I will ask how do you rank the top FB's according to strictly blocking skills? And what round do you predict the first of these FBs to go off the board?

Do you see any stud Punters? If not anybody special then feel free to skip that question, but what about Alex Henery, do you think it's realistic that he could possibly do both jobs and help a team save a roster spot, or do you think teams would be too conservative to even attempt having only one K/P on the roster? What round do you see him being drafted?

Also, is your Mark Ingram answer any different after he cut down his 40 time yesterday, or was that already considered?


I like Henry Hynoski from Pitt as an old-school lead blocking fullback. He sees the play like a RB, he's just freaking slow. I'm not an Owen Marecic fan. Shaun Chapas from Georgia is a strong lead blocker, always gets strong pad level. There's a guy from UC Davis that I haven't seen yet that is getting a lot of love as a thumping lead blocker, Dean Rogers. Marecic and maybe Charles Clay from Tulsa (a hybrid TE/FB) will go in the 90-120 range most likely, maybe a little later.

Punters:
Alex Henery is draftable. Derek Epperson from Baylor is a huge guy with a big leg, but he's inconsistent. IMO Henery could handle being both a PK and a P, but I don't think anyone is willing to try that now. He'll be a punter and he'll kick off and maybe try 50+ yard FGs. He'll probably go in the 5th round. There seems to be more of a need for young punting blood this year so a few guys could go in the final two rounds. Epperson, Chas Henry fom Florida, Dan Hutchens from Pitt, Matt Bosher from Miami, maybe Ryan Donohue from Iowa. Donohue doesn't have the booming leg but he places the ball exceptionally well.

Ingram's 40 time is almost inconsequential to me for the way he runs. It's all about initial burst and he's got plenty of that. I'd rather have a guy like him that isn't going to pull away from the pack but can actually absorb a little contact in the open field and not go down than a blazer that gets tackled by pinkies touching him. The fact that Ingram doesn't have great speed is the difference between him being a top 10 pick and a top 25 pick.
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Re: Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread 

Post#12 » by wetsthebed » Thu Mar 10, 2011 10:23 pm

Have you actually heard anything about the Patriots trading up or is that just a hunch?
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Re: Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread 

Post#13 » by TSE » Thu Mar 10, 2011 10:52 pm

Thanks for the quality answer, you gave a lot of new names for me to keep in mind and plenty of good insight to think about, I appreciate it!
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Re: Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread 

Post#14 » by Bucksfans1and2 » Fri Mar 11, 2011 12:20 am

What's the lowest Carimi can fall?

Will the Cardinals look QB in the 1st round.
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Re: Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread 

Post#15 » by DirtyDez » Fri Mar 11, 2011 2:02 am

Bucksfans1and2 wrote:Will the Cardinals look QB in the 1st round.

Can't speak for Jeff but it's a very good possibility even though i want us to go D. Whiz, the GM Rod Graves and owner Bill Bidwill (almost 90 years old) are all attending Gabbert's pro day. Trust me, the Cards never fire up the jet unless it's very important. If he's there i think he'll be the pick at #5. They need to convince Fitz a franchise QB will be there for the next decade although i'd rather tarde for Orton or Kolb.
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Re: Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread 

Post#16 » by TSE » Fri Mar 11, 2011 2:31 am

Or the Cards could get possibly a cheap deal going after Vince Young. Or what about Carson Palmer?
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Re: Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread 

Post#17 » by Icness » Fri Mar 11, 2011 12:47 pm

Roger Murdock wrote:Who are the players you rate much differently than most scouts, be it you either are much higher or much lower on them than others?


I'm higher on:
Jerrell Jernigan, my #3 WR and #19 overall prospect
Ras-I Dowling, but the injuries are increasingly bugging me
Adam Weber, Minnesota QB. I have a 5th round grade on him
Colin McCarthy, I have him #39 overall, love his versatility
Ryan Jones, my #4 corner and #56 overall
Lawrence Wilson, but I'm a sucker for LBs that can cover

I'm lower on:
Adrian Clayborn, tough to see him being more than a complimentary end with his lack of quickness and you just don't take those in the 1st round. See Jamaal Anderson, same guy.
Aldon Smith, my #55 overall
Jonathan Baldwin, my #92 overall and I don't think his light bulb will come on
Titus Young, just not feeling him as more than a late 3rd
Jerrell Powe, undraftably stiff IMO
pretty much all RBs not named Ingram or Da'Rel Scott
both the UCLA guys, Moore and Ayers
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Re: Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread 

Post#18 » by Icness » Fri Mar 11, 2011 1:02 pm

hermes wrote:Jeff,

Where do you place Ricky Stanzi in this year's QB class, i know the Hawkeyes had a less than spectacular year, but statistically Stanzi was very good

http://www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com/P ... 3-2011.htm
There is an article about how Stanzi is the best QB in this class (according to this guy's mathematical formula)

I don't know about the best, but I think he's very underrated and not talked about nearly enough


I liked him a lot at the Senior Bowl. I thought he was the most consistent QB there and he threw the sideline passes better than anyone else. Good feet, nice zip. I know his HS coach from Mentor OH, know that he's been well-groomed for success.

I have a couple of problems with him though. He has a slow release that almost has a pause in it from when he gets it fully cocked to when he releases it. Once he starts the motion he actually fires it out quickly but the set-up is elongated. And he has an exaggerated follow thru, and when he can't get that follow thru he loses a lot of zip and accuracy. It showed up in the Minnesota game and their bowl game, plus the Michigan State game in 09. He left a lot of deep balls short at Iowa, got bailed out by his receivers on those quite a bit.

I don't think he's the best QB in this class but I do think he might be the most ready to start in 2011. I like him in the 50-75 overall range, which is mid-2nd/mid-3rd round.
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Re: Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread 

Post#19 » by Icness » Fri Mar 11, 2011 1:13 pm

studcrackers wrote:i havent heard of watkins, you think it's that great to take a shot on a 26 year old rookie? why is he so old

anyways i guess for the time being, where do you project tyron smith to go? and what's the boom/bust potential since he's definitely seemed to be the high riser ever since the season ended


Watkins is a Canadian fireman that went to the same JUCO as Aaron Rodgers (Watkins was one year after) to get a firefighting degree. He was a hockey player and rugby player that took up football to get a tuition waiver and he caught on quickly. He played hockey at 270 pounds, which means his balance and leg strength is incredible and natural. Bench press numbers are nice, but NFL teams really love guys that can squat, and he can do 8 reps at 700 pounds. By way of comparison, Paea can't squat above 680. His maturity is a huge plus.

Tyron Smith will go in the first 20 picks. It's either him or Castonzo that goes 1st. He's pretty safe as far as offseason risers go because there's a lot of excellent game tape from him playing RT. His game tape is better than Solder's. I worry about a guy gaining 25 pounds in 2 months and keeping that physique, especially coming from the same school that brought up Brian Cushing, Taylor Mays, and Rey Maualuga.
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Re: Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread 

Post#20 » by ohara » Fri Mar 11, 2011 2:06 pm

If the Panthers do go with a QB at #1, is your hunch it will be Gabbert or Newton, and who do you think will prove to be the better NFL QB between the two?

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