Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread

[94feet]

Jeff, with the Players and Owners dispute, aren't trades of any kind not allowed until a deal is in place? If so, that would mean the Patriots can't use their extra picks to move up in the draft like you predicted, right?

They can trade picks from this year's draft, and only this year's draft.

Ahhh, that explains it. So should draft selection swaps be just as normal? Less normal? Harder to complete since future selections are not allowed?

[Icness]

Why isn't Ryan Kerrigan considered a unanimous top 10 selection.

He has elite production, 3 very good years in college, tons of sacks and TFL. Hell he forced more fumbles in his college career than most of the top pass rushers have sacks. He plays the run well. He has a constant motor. He plays a premium position and has good size and athleticism for it. I've heard he can play in a 3-4 as OLB as well. He doesnt have character or injury concerns pushing him down.

Really I dont understand why everyone seems so low on him. He seems like the complete package, one of the most NFL ready players, and an extremely safe pick with a lot of upside.

He's a bit undersized compared to the other 1st round DEs, not real good at changing direction, doesn't get off blocks at the line real well if he doesn't gain the initial advantage. Those are the standard knocks on him. Here's one that nobody will say: he's white and goofy looking, and he comes across as kind of a different cat, almost preternaturally nice. If he were of darker skin and a more menacing demeanor he'd probably be a top 10 pick. I don't say that with any racist intent or ill will, it's just how it is.

Most people I've talked to think he's very good, but he's not the elite athlete with the size of a Quinn or Bowers or Aldon Smith. I know at the Senior Bowl he opened some eyes with how quick he flew around a variety of very good offensive tackles. There was one rep where he was behind Solder before Solder took his first step. He reminds me a lot of Nick Cole, except Cole is a little heavier and stronger. I don't see him falling out of the top 25, probably in the 15-20 range.

[studcrackers]

im comin around to smith from usc

jeff, is there any chance fairley falls to the cowboys or we trade up for him? i think he was almost as important to that auburn d as newton was to the offense. just a joy to watch.

i mean i could totally seeing fischer being on board w/taking fairley (seeing how he's dealt w/voltatile characters before) but what about the new regime?

[Zabriskie]

Jeff, you have Clayborn 2 times in your latest mock.

[RiotPunch]

I love Wilkerson, but I highly doubt the Packers pass on Baldwin, Harris, Ayers, Ijalana, or even Hankerson for that matter, to select him.

[RiotPunch]

Jeff, you have Clayborn 2 times in your latest mock.

This. And for the love of God, the guy's name is Brooks REED not Brooks Reid.

http://www.arizonawildcats.com/sports/m ... oks00.html

[Roger Murdock]

Its too bad Clausen didn't stay at ND for another year. He probably would be the first pick in the draft. Instead his team is going to draft someone to replace him.

[TSE]

He probably just got stuck with the wrong people that gave him bad advice. They probably had ulterior motives that were financially motivated to secure a deal with him or through him and didn't want to risk possibly having that messed up by giving another whole year for things or terms to change with him. You should never leave school unless you are sure you are going to be a first round pick and a high first round pick imo. That's one of the reasons he dropped so far, is the mere choice to leave school early was an indication of weak intelligence and just one extra flag to consider. He scored a 23 on the Wonderlic test too. Not that smart. It would one thing if he could score high 40s and then intelligently process the decision to come out, but again it was a dumb mistake by a dumb kid who got dumb advice. He should have called me and he would have made a lot more money. Not bad considering I'm not even a licensed agent or in the football business.

The funny thing is Cam Newton scored even lower, at 21 on the Wonderlic. Gabbert scored a respectable 42. Does Carolina want to get an even dumber kid than Clausen to run the offense? Hmm, makes you think!

[Bucksfans1and2]

Looking at the O-Lineman:

The Tackles seem to be ranked

Smith
Castonzo
Solder
Carimi
Sherrod

Ijalana

Interior guys seem to be:

Watkins
Pouncey

Wisnewski
Hudson
Franklin
Cannon

What's the lowest those first class guys could fall.

[Icness]

Sorry for the editing error on the latest mock, it is fixed and should be up ASAP. Martez Wilson moved up to 30 and caused some LB movement below him, with Greg Jones moving back into the 2nd round to Tampa at #51.

It's quite realistic that any player that is in this mock between picks 25-50 could go anywhere in that range, maybe even a little lower. There is very little separation in that group in terms of draft grades and it's much more what flavor a particular team likes. I can see Leonard Hankerson going at #32, but it's just as easy he falls to #64. Same with Ben Ijalana or Bruce Carter.

I would put very good money that the first 11 players in this latest edition will be the first 11 off the board next month. The only possible exception would be Tyron Smith falling, with either Amukmara, Jones, or possibly Castonzo sliding up a little. I guess Quinn could slide but that's highly unlikely; he's the #1 overall player on one team's board (as of now) and they are picking in the top 8.

[Icness]

im comin around to smith from usc

jeff, is there any chance fairley falls to the cowboys or we trade up for him? i think he was almost as important to that auburn d as newton was to the offense. just a joy to watch.

i mean i could totally seeing fischer being on board w/taking fairley (seeing how he's dealt w/voltatile characters before) but what about the new regime?

He could be there, it's def. possible. The coaching connection with TEN (Tracy Rocker was his coach at Auburn and he's now the TEN DL coach) makes it unlikely but people said that when they had Norm Chow and passed on Leinart. Fairley isn't for everyone but I think Jerry Jones wouldn't shy away from him because of his personality. This is the same team that actively sought out TO and Deion Sanders after all...

[Icness]

He probably just got stuck with the wrong people that gave him bad advice. They probably had ulterior motives that were financially motivated to secure a deal with him or through him and didn't want to risk possibly having that messed up by giving another whole year for things or terms to change with him. You should never leave school unless you are sure you are going to be a first round pick and a high first round pick imo. That's one of the reasons he dropped so far, is the mere choice to leave school early was an indication of weak intelligence and just one extra flag to consider. He scored a 23 on the Wonderlic test too. Not that smart. It would one thing if he could score high 40s and then intelligently process the decision to come out, but again it was a dumb mistake by a dumb kid who got dumb advice. He should have called me and he would have made a lot more money. Not bad considering I'm not even a licensed agent or in the football business.

The funny thing is Cam Newton scored even lower, at 21 on the Wonderlic. Gabbert scored a respectable 42. Does Carolina want to get an even dumber kid than Clausen to run the offense? Hmm, makes you think!

Clausen is somewhat a victim of his own family. His older brothers never quite made it and his dad is one of those "my sons will be NFL players, period" types. It's not that they needed the money, more like they wanted the pride.

Wonderlic scores are iffy as a projection tool. Brian Brohm (remember him?) got a 39, Joey Harrington was in the high 30s too. Dan Marino got a 13, Vince Young got a 9 IIRC. Greg McElroy almost aced it but that doesn't mean he'll ever be more than a #3 in the NFL.

IMO it helps differentiate what type of QB you have--if you want a guy that has full freedom to call plays and make adjustments, you want a high Wonderlic. Think Peyton Manning or Drew Brees. If you want an arm to make predetermined throws and a QB that doesn't ask a lot of questions, you want a lower one. Think Mike Martz QBs or Bill Parcells QBs. Personally I wouldn't touch a QB (or any player but a DT for that matter) that can't break 20, but I'm a big believer in having intelligent guys on my team. And there is a difference between football IQ and off-field intelligence. It's more pronounced at other positions than QB but sometimes that narrow focus on football can be an asset. Think Brett Favre or Jim Kelly--not exactly Mensa candidates but exceptional QBs.

[Icness]

Looking at the O-Lineman:

The Tackles seem to be ranked

Smith
Castonzo
Solder
Carimi
Sherrod

Ijalana

Interior guys seem to be:

Watkins
Pouncey

Wisnewski
Hudson
Franklin
Cannon

What's the lowest those first class guys could fall.

All the tackles except Carimi are certain 1sts. Carimi isn't a great fit for everyone and it depends on how it plays out; I know a couple of tackle-needy teams that don't have him as a 2nd round talent, but others will have him as a 1st. Ijalana could go anywhere between where Pittsburgh picks and the top of the 3rd. James Carpenter and Brewer from IU could both go ahead of him but I doubt it. Carpenter should be a 2nd rounder, he was a revelation at the Senior Bowl--much better & more natural at pass protection than Sherrod or Carimi that entire week and he was known as a run blocker at Bama.

The interior guys are tougher. I have a hard time seeing Watkins fall past Indy. Pouncey should be in the 20s but again, it's how the board plays out. He could sneak to as low as Washington or Minnesota in the 2nd. Franklin could be a late 1st, could be a 3rd. Hudson is falling as nobody wants a 285-pound lineman anymore and he clearly was a different (worse) guy at the Combine at 299. Wisniewski is smallish too and could be anywhere from about OAK' 2nd round to the top of the 4th. Cannon looks like a late 2nd//mid 3rd but I know one scout on one team insists he's a 1st rounder. I'll believe that when I see it but anyone that can squat 880 pounds and hang clean 420 and still move like him is going to get prominent attention.

[aggo]

jeff, who is the most secretive draft organization out there usually?

[TSE]

Wonderlic scores are iffy as a projection tool.

Yeah I agree with your whole post. I wasn't trying to suggest that Wonderlic scores project who will be a good player. It's just one variable that points towards intelligence, and anytime you have weak intelligence you just better hope the other variables score that much higher. And I too if I can help it I want to get an intelligent player instead of one who isn't.

[Wade-A-Holic]

Danny Watkins got a 15 the first time he took the Wonderlic and a 40 at the combine. Prince Amukamara had a big improvement at the Combine from his first Wonderlic score as well. Point being: If I have access to interviewing these players, coaches, etc, the Wonderlic probably doesn't even register on my radar as an evaluation tool.

[TSE]

The Wonderlic is supposed to measure a person's intelligence, and intelligence should be a variable to consider. Whether you accept the premise that the Wonderlic properly measures intelligence is a separate issue. I don't get to interview the players nor do I get to analyze the construction of the Wonderlic test or know what the specific questions are that are on it, thus I'm not in a position to qualify the legitimacy and accuracy of the test. So for discussion purposes as armchair experts, we pretend that the Wonderlic is relevant, and naturally if and when any of us becomes a GM, then we simply substitute the Wonderlic test for any methods we want that help us individually ascertain what a player's true intelligence level is. But for any of us that don't have access, we have no other intelligence tests to go on other than the Wonderlic score, that's all we get is a number. It's just an "x-variable" to represent "intelligence" for theoretical/hypothetical discussion purposes.

And I'm not sure what point you are trying to make about Watkins scoring a 15 then a 40. For one, just because he has fluky results, doesn't mean the test isn't good or accurate. For all we know Watkins doesn't care about the test and didn't take it seriously the first time or he was distracted or made a mistake on filling out the sheet. What is the relevance of posting his fluky score set for whatever your argument is? It's just one score and we don't know the basis of why there is such a big discrepancy.

[cochiseuofm]

TSE, the people who created the Wonderlic test and administer it themselves say that any jump of more than a few points, think 3-4, should be dismissed and seen as an aberration. What that basically means is that neither score, 15 or 40, can be used accurately as a barometer of intelligence.

And standardized tests in general are a terrible indicator of success. Is it a measure of intelligence? Sure, if you only narrowly define intelligence as the ability to solve math, English and logic problems (if I'm not being sarcastic enough, I'll just flat-out say how dumb I think that notion is.)

Icness, if I'm wrong correct me, but I have to think teams care more about the intelligence a player exudes during interviews than they do about this test.

[Wade-A-Holic]

TSE, the people who created the Wonderlic test and administer it themselves say that any jump of more than a few points, think 3-4, should be dismissed and seen as an aberration. What that basically means is that neither score, 15 or 40, can be used accurately as a barometer of intelligence.

They first claim that such a drastic leap in scores shouldn't even happen... It happens, though, and not as rarely as they'd probably like to believe. Like I said, interviews would be almost everything if I was the one doing evaluations.

[Icness]

jeff, who is the most secretive draft organization out there usually?

Most people think it's the Patriots but I disagree. You can rule out a good portion of players just because of who they are or how they play. That's even truer now that The Hoodie has complete control and Scott Pioli went to KC.

The team where I know people and can't ever trust them is the 49ers, though most people I knew there are gone now. It's different now under Baalke, how different remains to be seen. Denver is a tough read; Xanders comes from The Hoodie tree but hasn't advanced beyond the secrecy thing. They throw out all sorts of misinformation.

Nick Saban's Dolphins were the worst. Those people were scared to talk. You know the scene in Christmas Vacation where Brian Doyle Murray leads the pahalnx of suits down the hall and Clark Griswold is making wisecracks at them? That's what the Saban Dolphins looked like in the hotel and stands for the Senior Bowl, and again in Indy for the Combine. I've gotten to know someone who was an assistant coach on that team and they freaking hated Saban, just a complete egomaniacal control freak. Even the assistant coaches had no idea what Saban's draft board looked like, zero input.