Some random thoughts

[Icness]

Normally I put these in column form but I'm putting them here first!

--despite what you might read elsewhere, Da'Quan Bowers is still very much in play in the top 15. Probably not top 10 anymore, but there are a couple of teams in the 11-15 range that really like (and need) him. Between the medical questions and the one-year wonder factor, I wouldn't do it.

--I was doing some film work on offensive tackles, and both Orlando Franklin and Anthony Castonzo won more battles overall and the total war against Bowers. The one that really stood out though was James Hurst of UNC, a true freshman, consistently handling Bowers. I was watching the game to check out the Clemson DBs but it stood out how a light freshman could drive Bowers around the edge. Bowers could bull him but he doesn't have the hand/shoulder/foot coordination to separate quick enough to finish the play. Hurst is going to be a good one, but he shouldn't be good enough to do that good a job containing a potential top 15 pick.

--The more I watch Marcus Gilchrist, the more I like. More specifically, the more 2009 I watch the more I like. I see why he's considered a draft board riser. He takes the position of "safety" quite literally. They used him all over the place (primarily CB in '10) and he can cover in man or zone, he can play centerfield, but what I really liked was how he played with an aggressive risk-taker like Deandre McDaniel. They had McDaniel crash the box hard, but he guessed wrong and overran plays quite a bit. But there was Gilchrist, patient and reliable. I would love him to pair with a guy like Louis Delmas in Detroit or Yeremiah Bell in Miami. I'd be comfortable with him in the 2nd round, which is higher than I thought going into evaluating him.

--I've been hellbent on doing apple/apple comparisons of the Big Ten pass rushers: Watt, Heyward, Kerrigan, Clayborn. Kerrigan is much different so he sort of gets excluded (he's a 3-4 OLB or 4-3 pass rush specialist). Here's what I gathered:
Clayborn is the best, most alert run stuffer. He has the best base strength in terms of setting the edge and not being moved from the spot. He's also quite obviously the slowest of the three, both with his hands and feet. I see him as an undersized 4-3 DT more than an end in either front. The only game where he was the best of the three was against Penn State, and Iowa was ahead 17-0 early so he didn't have to worry about the run. He was much better in 2009; based just off his 2010 I see a mid-rounder with a strange medical issue (his right shoulder/arm has a condition where he loses strength periodically). Beware.

Watt is raw, but he's got the best blend of power and speed. His tenacity and ability to operate when blocked are superior. When he tried the same basic approach as Clayborn against the same opponent, Watt was better against every single one at both winning the individual battle and finishing the play. Clayborn is a better bull rusher but Watt does a move where he holds for a count and then explodes into the B gap with brutal effectiveness and great burst, just rocks whomever picks him up. That's a move Clayborn simply doesn't have. It's a move Reggie White made a killing with and not many guys can do it. He killed it against Michigan State and Ohio State, best player on the field. I stand by my in-season comparison of a young Jared Allen with 25 extra pounds. Remember, Allen didn't blossom right away and I don't thikn Watt will be real good early either.

Heyward is the quickest twitch guy of the three and also the most technically sound...at times. I've perhaps been defending him too vigorously in that regard; he loses focus on technique a lot more than I expected to see. He is the quickest off the snap and the best at diagnosing the offensive scheme and play, and he's easily got the best repetoire of moves to get into the backfield. He's shorter than Watt but he does have some issues with getting his pads too high. He's the best candidate to play 5-technique in the NFL, and he fits best with a team like SF or Miami that doesn't expect lots of sacks from that spot. I've lowered my grade a bit, taking off my Buckeye blinders I guess. I still like him as a late 1st rounder and I think the right coach can get him to a few Pro Bowls. He's shorter but I liken him to Calais Campbell in terms of how he'll perform in the NFL.

--One of the small-school guys I really like is Ryan Jones, CB, NW Missouri. He was very good at NFLPA game week and I'd seen him play a couple of times. I worry about his quickness of reacting to the play but he's a better natural cover man and significantly better run defender than Buster Skrine, who certain draftniks are fellating on a regular basis. He reminds me of Alterraun Verner, though not as polished.

[Bucksfans1and2]

Where do you get your film? This is a question I've been meaning to ask for like 2 years now.

[Icness]

Some of it comes from Blesto, the scouting service, courtesy of some former colleagues. I get a lot of stuff straight from schools that I have relationships with too (mostly Big Ten, MAC, CAA and ACC). I'm someone that loads up two DVRs full of games every Saturday while I'm watching other games too and I burn those off pretty frequently. It's not coaches tape but I can usually get enough from it to make an educated opinion.

The first team I worked with had a vault of like 10000 game DVDs archived, many of them going back far enough that any players in those games are already retired. I never quite understood that.

[Icness]

5 more quickies:
--Jake Locker at #15 or #16 is looking more likely all the time. A couple of well-placed birdies strongly believe this will happen and I trust them. Note that it might not be Miami or JAX making the pick, however.

--Bowers had his recheck on his knee and it did not go well. You can find other sources that will tell you that too, but if what I heard this AM is true he could very well fall out of the 1st round. I know one team that had high interest at one time now pulled him from their board. Odds are very high he needs microfracture and will miss 2011, and there is no real solid track record for long-term recovery from it.

--I can tell you with about 95% certainty the first 6 picks of the draft. In order: Cam Newton, Marcell Dareus, Von Miller, A.J. Green, Blaine Gabbert, Robert Quinn. I would have to think the Niners would take Patrick Peterson at #7 but I can't zero that in just yet, only an assumption. The only wild card is if Buffalo decides to take Quinn or perhaps Peterson at #3, I'm just assuming Miller there like everyone else is.

--The biggest question in the first round is, where does the run on offensive tackles start? Tyron Smith at #9 seems pretty credible, but then where does it go? Castonzo at #13 to Detroit has real legs, but its not in stone. Does Miami go OL, and will it be Pouncey? Does New England go tackle? San Diego? KC or New Orleans? Atlanta? I have a pretty good feeling that Sherrod, Carimi, Watkins, and Solder all go within about a 6-to-8 pick range, but I cannot pinpoint where that run will start. I do think they come off in that order, FYI.

--two RBs I like a lot more than everyone else: Dion Lewis and Alex Green. They both look like 4th-5th rounders but I wouldn't hesitate to take them in the top 75. I prefer both to (among others) Demarco Murray, Shane Vereen, Jordan Todman, and Daniel Thomas. I'd like Taiwan Jones more than all of them but he's proven pretty fragile.

[Roger Murdock]

Assuming you right with the way those top 6 guys get drafted, it seems to me that Quinn is most likely a Brown. I need to stop hating him as a prospect.

The more I think about the QB prospects the more I like Locker. I think hes the best one in the draft. I'm not at all qualified to analyze QBs but I feel that they are all huge prospects and none are really ready to start and not suck. I trust Locker to improve more than I trust Newton or Mallet and I think he has a higher ceiling than Gabbert or Ponder or Dalton. His accuracy from the pocket needs improved but I think its more of a comfort thing from throwing within the pocket than it is an issue with his arm. He had a very high completion % when throwing outside the pocket. Plus I just think hes a really cool likable guy and a natural leader. I would rather root for him than douchers like Mallet or Newton.

[Icness]

Plus I just think hes a really cool likable guy and a natural leader. I would rather root for him than douchers like Mallet or Newton.

For as much as I've ripped Jake Locker, I have to say that statement is so true. He's a genuinely good guy and the other players gravitate and respond to him.

IMO his biggest issue is that he doesn't have any depth to his dropbacks. Routes and timing are designed to work from specific release points, but he never gets back that far. When the play calls for a 5-step drop, his five steps are about 2 yards shallower than where guys like Dalton or Mallett or even a shorter guy like Tyrod Taylor are. Locker is on the shorter end (he's 6'2" but doesn't look that big in person) and if anything he should drop deeper because of that. It's why he can't ever step into his throws, and it's why his sightlines are often compromised--he's too close to his linemen. It really stood out at the Combine when they were cycling thru throwers and they had to make 5- and 7-step drops and throw. He wasn't within a yard of where anyone else was depth-wise. That is coachable but it's not an easy fix--it's like teaching Shaq a new free throw technique.

[Smooth32]

--Bowers had his recheck on his knee and it did not go well. You can find other sources that will tell you that too, but if what I heard this AM is true he could very well fall out of the 1st round. I know one team that had high interest at one time now pulled him from their board. Odds are very high he needs microfracture and will miss 2011, and there is no real solid track record for long-term recovery from it.

Do you know where the Browns stand on Bowers?

--I can tell you with about 95% certainty the first 6 picks of the draft. In order: Cam Newton, Marcell Dareus, Von Miller, A.J. Green, Blaine Gabbert, Robert Quinn. I would have to think the Niners would take Patrick Peterson at #7 but I can't zero that in just yet, only an assumption. The only wild card is if Buffalo decides to take Quinn or perhaps Peterson at #3, I'm just assuming Miller there like everyone else is.

How in the world would the Browns pass on Patrick Peterson there?

I agree with your top-3. For the next 3 though, I think it'll go Gabbert, Peterson and Green.

[Icness]

--Bowers had his recheck on his knee and it did not go well. You can find other sources that will tell you that too, but if what I heard this AM is true he could very well fall out of the 1st round. I know one team that had high interest at one time now pulled him from their board. Odds are very high he needs microfracture and will miss 2011, and there is no real solid track record for long-term recovery from it.

Do you know where the Browns stand on Bowers?

--I can tell you with about 95% certainty the first 6 picks of the draft. In order: Cam Newton, Marcell Dareus, Von Miller, A.J. Green, Blaine Gabbert, Robert Quinn. I would have to think the Niners would take Patrick Peterson at #7 but I can't zero that in just yet, only an assumption. The only wild card is if Buffalo decides to take Quinn or perhaps Peterson at #3, I'm just assuming Miller there like everyone else is.

How in the world would the Browns pass on Patrick Peterson there?

I agree with your top-3. For the next 3 though, I think it'll go Gabbert, Peterson and Green.

The Browns will not be taking Da'Quan Bowers. I haven't asked in awhile but they were never huge fans even before all this knee stuff got uglier.

They won't take Peterson there because they took Joe Haden in the 1st round last year and Mike Holmgren knows better than to overload at one position with so many glaring holes elsewhere. That's just how he operates. Plus I think people are overrating Peterson--he's very good but he's not as good in coverage as Haden was a year ago, or as good of a shutdown guy as Jimmy Smith in this draft. People talk about him like he's Deion Sanders crossed with Nnamdi Asomugha and that's simply not the case.

[Roger Murdock]

--Bowers had his recheck on his knee and it did not go well. You can find other sources that will tell you that too, but if what I heard this AM is true he could very well fall out of the 1st round. I know one team that had high interest at one time now pulled him from their board. Odds are very high he needs microfracture and will miss 2011, and there is no real solid track record for long-term recovery from it.

Do you know where the Browns stand on Bowers?

--I can tell you with about 95% certainty the first 6 picks of the draft. In order: Cam Newton, Marcell Dareus, Von Miller, A.J. Green, Blaine Gabbert, Robert Quinn. I would have to think the Niners would take Patrick Peterson at #7 but I can't zero that in just yet, only an assumption. The only wild card is if Buffalo decides to take Quinn or perhaps Peterson at #3, I'm just assuming Miller there like everyone else is.

How in the world would the Browns pass on Patrick Peterson there?

I agree with your top-3. For the next 3 though, I think it'll go Gabbert, Peterson and Green.

The Browns will not be taking Da'Quan Bowers. I haven't asked in awhile but they were never huge fans even before all this knee stuff got uglier.

They won't take Peterson there because they took Joe Haden in the 1st round last year and Mike Holmgren knows better than to overload at one position with so many glaring holes elsewhere. That's just how he operates. Plus I think people are overrating Peterson--he's very good but he's not as good in coverage as Haden was a year ago, or as good of a shutdown guy as Jimmy Smith in this draft. People talk about him like he's Deion Sanders crossed with Nnamdi Asomugha and that's simply not the case.

Exactly. Peterson was a great college player and is an insane athlete. Buts he just not some all world skill who takes over games and shuts down half the field. People are talking about this guy like hes the best DB prospect ever, but if you compare his tape to Eric Berry I think Berry is a better football player.

[Smooth32]

Peterson certainly certainly isn't a perfect prospect and isn't a perfect corner but the guy is a top-3 talent, how do you pass on him at #6?

I realize the Browns took Haden last year but if Peterson is there at #6, you have to take him. There are too many questions surrounding the DL class to take one of them over Peterson, who is a very safe prospect.

BPA over need.

[Roger Murdock]

Peterson certainly certainly isn't a perfect prospect and isn't a perfect corner but the guy is a top-3 talent, how do you pass on him at #6?

I realize the Browns took Haden last year but if Peterson is there at #6, you have to take him. There are too many questions surrounding the DL class to take one of them over Peterson, who is a very safe prospect.

BPA over need.

If both Haden and Peterson turn into top 5 corners then you are not going to be able to afford keeping both. Basically you have to hope one doesn't pan out.

I really like Peterson and wouldn't mind if the browns took him, especially over Quinn for instance. I just see the logic in why we would pass him.

[Icness]

The Browns also don't need his return skills, which enhances PP's value for some. I agree with Mr. Murdock that Eric Berry is a better football player too.

If I had my way the Browns would take either AJ Green (very doubtful he's still around) or Julio Jones. I wouldn't mind a DT like Liuget either to help the transition to the 4-3.

[Roger Murdock]

Do you think Peterson will be used as a returner? Obviously hes very good at it but thats a lot of injury risk for a high pick.

[Icness]

Do you think Peterson will be used as a returner? Obviously hes very good at it but thats a lot of injury risk for a high pick.

I think he'll get chances the same way the Ravens use Ed Reed. Not their everyday returner, but when the game is on the line he'll get his chances to run back punts and kicks.

This Peterson hype is just insane. I did a call-in draft show in Houston last night and one guy asked me who was better, PP or Deion Sanders. That's just ridiculous. Did nobody see Alshon Jeffery torch him, repeatedly? Did they not see Julio Jones get two TDs on him and drive block him OOB on several occasions? Or guessing wrong and giving up a long pass to Ryan Mallett? He has this aura like he's perfect and will immediately erase one side of the field. That's not even his game--he's more of an Asante Samuel, a guy that purposely lets guys get open so he can try and make some plays. He's damn good at that, but that style has its vulnerabilities.

[B Mac]

Jeff,

Are you getting your thoughts on the Brown's from someone within the organization? You seem to have such strong feelings on the situation it seems like you are.

[Icness]

Jeff,

Are you getting your thoughts on the Brown's from someone within the organization? You seem to have such strong feelings on the situation it seems like you are.

Lets just say that some of the recent personnel changes have been advantageous to my Browns knowledge. Aside from that, Holmgren is the polar opposite of Mangini in terms of letting his people talk--he loves to have all kinds of info out there from coaches, scouts, interns, etc. whereas Mangini demanded total silence from everyone.

[Hunta]

Do you think Peterson will be used as a returner? Obviously hes very good at it but thats a lot of injury risk for a high pick.

I think he'll get chances the same way the Ravens use Ed Reed. Not their everyday returner, but when the game is on the line he'll get his chances to run back punts and kicks.

This Peterson hype is just insane. I did a call-in draft show in Houston last night and one guy asked me who was better, PP or Deion Sanders. That's just ridiculous. Did nobody see Alshon Jeffery torch him, repeatedly? Did they not see Julio Jones get two TDs on him and drive block him OOB on several occasions? Or guessing wrong and giving up a long pass to Ryan Mallett? He has this aura like he's perfect and will immediately erase one side of the field. That's not even his game--he's more of an Asante Samuel, a guy that purposely lets guys get open so he can try and make some plays. He's damn good at that, but that style has its vulnerabilities.

Any chance the Niners might agree with you and do a trade down from #7 to the Texans at #11...maybe grab Amukamara and a few draft picks?

Or do you think Peterson is the man they're targeting and won't move away from that?

[Icness]

Do you think Peterson will be used as a returner? Obviously hes very good at it but thats a lot of injury risk for a high pick.

I think he'll get chances the same way the Ravens use Ed Reed. Not their everyday returner, but when the game is on the line he'll get his chances to run back punts and kicks.

This Peterson hype is just insane. I did a call-in draft show in Houston last night and one guy asked me who was better, PP or Deion Sanders. That's just ridiculous. Did nobody see Alshon Jeffery torch him, repeatedly? Did they not see Julio Jones get two TDs on him and drive block him OOB on several occasions? Or guessing wrong and giving up a long pass to Ryan Mallett? He has this aura like he's perfect and will immediately erase one side of the field. That's not even his game--he's more of an Asante Samuel, a guy that purposely lets guys get open so he can try and make some plays. He's damn good at that, but that style has its vulnerabilities.

Any chance the Niners might agree with you and do a trade down from #7 to the Texans at #11...maybe grab Amukamara and a few draft picks?

Or do you think Peterson is the man they're targeting and won't move away from that?

It sounds like the Niners will be happy taking what they can get at #7. If it's Peterson, fine. If it's Quinn or Miller, fine. If all three of those are gone, then all bets are off.

Houston is targeting Peterson, period. They can get Amukamara without moving from #11 unless someone jumps up for him or Dallas is throwing everyone way off, which is highly uncharacteristic for them.