Some early '14 notes

[Icness]

Every day during the summer I re-watch a game from last season & type up some notes. Here are some of the recent ones. These are building blocks for scouting reports. I watched all these games for '13 prospects before but this is the first time I've actually broken down most of these guys.

South Carolina vs. Clemson
http://www.detroitlionsdraft.com/?p=1596

Washington vs. Oregon
http://www.detroitlionsdraft.com/2013/0 ... ington-12/

Michigan vs. Northwestern
http://www.detroitlionsdraft.com/?p=1581

TCU vs. Oklahoma
http://www.detroitlionsdraft.com/?p=1534

[Icness]

Strong impressions from the above post:

--Tajh Boyd is not a top QB prospect. He's not as good as Troy Smith was at the same point and frankly I don't see the hype at all. Only marginally better as a NFL prospect than Matt Scott was in this past one and he went undrafted.

--Gabe Ikard is going to be a very good NFL center. Not a 1st round guy but he would have been my top-rated center in the '13 draft based on the TCU game and others I've watched.

--DeAnthony Thomas has a lot of Randall Cobb movement skills to him. Absolute stud in open spaces. His receiving skills are going to prop him up higher for NFL evaluators, as he is the direction teams are heading offensively. I wouldn't run him out of the backfield more than ~12 times a game but can see him playing slot, motioning out, end arounds, returns, etc.

-Most underrated player I've seen so far is Clemson ILB Spencer Shuey. Has a good chance to emerge as a middle-round candidate for a 3-4 team. Limited agility but solid instincts and natural cover skills, has some pop to his hits.

--Ifo Ekpre-Olomu absolutely must add some strength and bulk or else he's going to disappoint. Kasen Williams, who I also liked in the Washington/Stanford game, physically dominated him.

[Icness]

A few more tidbits from some recent game viewing:
--Rutgers WR Brandon Coleman is going to be as good as he wants to be. Has Demaryius Thomas-like physical ability and size. Their QB Gary Nova is super streaky--he's completed 11 in a row one half and missed 8 in a row the next--and Coleman gets frustrated when he's got to work to make the catch or it misses him entirely. If he can get his head right, he's a top 15 talent IMO.

--Love me some Colt Lyerla, TE, Oregon. It's a hard comparison to make right now but on the field he is very much the kind of weapon that Aaron Hernandez was for the Patriots. Great lead blocker out of the backfield. Excellent at chipping and releasing as an in-line tight end. Seam stretching speed from the slot. Reliable hands and the ability to make the difficult catch. He's so much better than A. Sefarian-Jenkins it's not even close in my mind and I like ASJ a fair amount as well.

--Arizona St. DT Will Sutton is getting all sorts of hype. I don't buy it. He's got a fantastic first step and he closes well, but teams are not going to use a top 50 pick on a 5'11" DT with 31.5" arms. There's good reason for that, very difficult for guys with those attributes to handle NFL guard blocking vs. the run and it's hard for them to get to the chest of the blocker to leverage off that. I see an interior rush specialist a la Jason Jones at this point. I do like that he bulked up into the 290s. He might be worthy of a top 40 pick next draft but I would bet $$ that if he's under 6'0.5" and arms are under 32" he doesn't go before the 3rd.

--Johnny Manziel is only marginally draftable for what he does between the lines. Add in the immaturity factor and he's going to be very lucky if he's drafted at all. Winning the Heisman doesn't guarantee draft stock, ask Jason White or Danny Wuerffel. 5'11" QBs with terrible pocket presence and poor field vision belong in Canada.

--If you're looking for a small school guy to hype up, remember the name Larry Webster from Bloomsburg. His dad won a Super Bowl with the Ravens but Larry played hoops, and played it well; he was an all-conference forward and holds the school record for blocked shots. Played football last year for the 1st time since HS and dominated, 30 plays behind the LOS. He was listed at 6'6.5" and 240 pounds but was probably closer to 230. He is now training exclusively for football and I've heard he's up to a solid 248. I've only seen two of his games but he explodes off the screen. He does that again at an increased bulk and he's going to rocket up draft boards.

[JustBlaze]

Jeff,

Any early thoughts on any Boise State players that are likely to get drafted next year?

[Icness]

Jeff,

Any early thoughts on any Boise State players that are likely to get drafted next year?

Only guy I've really paid any attention to with depth is Demarcus Lawrence. He's light and plays light but he's got good bend around the edge and a nice closing burst. Looks like an outside backer in a 3-4.

The DT with the crazy name is probably going to get drafted but I haven't broken him down yet. My initial impression of their center Paradis is positive. I'm not big on Matt Miller as a wideout. Looks like just a guy, good collegian.

[Icness]

Some updates:

--Really, really like Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA. His delivery is a little long and obvious a la Jason Campbell or Matt Schaub but he's a natural playmaker with balls. He's what the Bills hope EJ Manuel becomes. Top 10 pick IMO, could go top 3.

--Watched some more Jason Verrett tonight. The TCU corner looks to be a more physical version of the 2012 Tim Jennings in Chicago. Short but not small and plays bigger. Downright amazing natural stickiness in coverage. I'm not comparing him to Revis, but he has the similar ability to read the receiver's body language and feet to figure out what is coming next. Good corners watch hips and feet, not shoulders and arms (for an example of the latter, DeAngelo Hall) and Verrett does that very well. He's not going 1st round because 5'8" corners don't go that high, but he's going to play right away and play well for a long time in the NFL.

--TTU TE Jace Amaro has the highest ceiling of any TE in this draft. He's physically very much like Tony Gonzalez, but he plays more with the style of a healthy young Kellen Winslow II. He's great, he knows it and isn't shy about letting you know he knows it. I saw him in person in the bowl game where he started a fight, and it wasn't the first time he tried to get things going. Get him a coach he respects and a QB that isn't afraid to attack the intermediate middle and Amaro can be a top 5 TE quickly. Would love him on the Giants.

--Nebraska CB Stanley Jean-Baptiste getting a lot of notice. He was outstanding vs. Wyoming and fared pretty well against UCLA too. 6'2", 220ish and can run a high 4.4 and I bet his vertical tops 38". Never been much question about him physically, but this year he appears to finally "get it" mentally too. Nebraska coaches have been raving about his newfound maturity and dedication to scouts. Way too early to say so but at minimum he's worked his way from 6th-7th round to being a guy teams will look hard at in the top 64. Guys that size with those movement skills don't come along very often.

--If I had to do a quick top 10 based on how I think the draft will play out in May:
1. JAX-Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
2. TB-Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
3. PIT-Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA
4. OAK-Jake Matthews, T, TAMU
5. CLE-Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
6. CAR-Marqise Lee, WR, USC
7. MIN-Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA
8. NYJ-Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo
9. TEN-Mike Evans, WR, TAMU
10. ARI-Cyrus Kouandjio, T, Alabama

--I still think Johnny Football is undraftable even though he has demonstrably improved his passing vision

[Cammo101]

I get the concerns about Manziel's behavior and off the field issues, but I don't get how anyone can watch this kid and think he is not an NFL talent. In a league where people like Gabbert, Pryor, Ponder, and Weeden are starters, there is most certainly a place in the NFL for a guy like Manziel. He is a natural born playmaker and a much better passer than anyone wants to give him credit for.

There are not 5 better NFL prospects in this draft at the QB position IMO.

[zmanishere11]

I get the concerns about Manziel's behavior and off the field issues, but I don't get how anyone can watch this kid and think he is not an NFL talent. In a league where people like Gabbert, Pryor, Ponder, and Weeden are starters, there is most certainly a place in the NFL for a guy like Manziel. He is a natural born playmaker and a much better passer than anyone wants to give him credit for.

There are not 5 better NFL prospects in this draft at the QB position IMO.

I have to go with Jeff on this one.

My biggest problem with manziel is the fact that he's ALREADY a Ryan Leaf level jag-off. At least Leaf had enough sense to hide it until after he signed for 50 mil (remember, guys were talking about him over Peyton that year).

This also means that the chances of him changing are next to zero.

You can get away with that at a lot of positions, but QB is not one of them.

Great example right now is Cam Newton - he's not as big a douche as Manziel / Leaf are, but he's close enough where his ridiculous physical abilities cannot overcome his douchbagedness and actually win games in the NFL.

[Cammo101]

Newton is not the problem in Carolina. The complete lack of talent around him is.

[Icness]

Notes from NCAA Wk. 4

-Derek Carr looked very impressive in beating Boise on Friday night. Love the velocity on his downfield throws. Excellent presence and poise in the clutch too. Reminds me some of Matt Stafford stylistically. One former scout claims he'll be a 1st rounder, and I can see that. Senior Bowl will be huge for him.

-Melvin Gordon makes all kinds of great runs in the open field, but his 4th & 2 run really impressed me. Lots of speedy guys like him would try to bounce that, or worry about the contact. Not Gordon. He lowered his shoulder, stayed balanced and kept driving his legs to move the pile forward. That's a legit NFL run and I wasn't sure he had that one in his arsenal. If he declares he's no worse than the 3rd RB drafted, could be the first...but that won't happen until at least the 40th pick.

-I need to look at the tape closer, but from what I've seen I really think OSU QB Kenny Guiton can play in the NFL. Love his touch and his patience, the two things that Braxton Miller doesn't have. It will be interesting to see what comes of him.

-I'm watching Michigan right now and Taylor Lewan has given up two pressures to a guy who played fullback last year, plus a whiff on a run block where he fell on his facemask. The second pressure he didn't even try to block him, just turned his shoulders and threw out a lazy arm bar. Don't be surprised if Lewan falls a lot further than expected, he's a different kind of guy than you would expect for a "physical" lineman. He will not be a top 50 prospect on my board.

-I'm now completely done with Logan Thomas. He's an inferior version of Marqueis Gray. No chance he's drafted. None. Marshall got hosed in that game too, obvious DPI went uncalled and it cost them the rain-soaked game.

-MSU CB Darqueze Dennard could be flagged for holding on just about every play but dude is going to get a lot of love from press man teams. Very physical jam and he can turn the hips and run in bail/trail too. Good ball skills, physical vs. the run, very competitive. Better player than Desmond Trufant IMO, won't be drafted as high though.

[zmanishere11]

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/9718675/wisconsin-badgers-running-back-melvin-gordon-provides-instant-impact

Nice article on Melvon Gordon

[Icness]

More thoughts before I head to South Bend for Oklahoma/ND:

--Melvin Gordon reminds me some of Robert Smith, one of the more underappreciated RBs of all time. Gordon has that same ability to glide and then burst, and they see the field the same way. Long stride in the open, high knees, loose shoulders (that's good as a runner). Looking forward to seeing him vs. Shazier tonight.

--I won't have him rated the highest, but I would bet Mike Evans is the 1st WR drafted in May. I've seen him up close, he's built like Vincent Jackson. He's improved his ability to separate off the line. I still like Marqise Lee better.

--Watched BYU TE Kaneakua Friel and I like what I see. Very smooth athlete, not dynamic but he's a better athlete than expected. Good with his hands as a blocker, has some functional core strength. Does the little things well like the subtle pushoff in space and leveraging the edge as a run blocker. Looks like a solid #2 TE.

--I watched VT/GT and saw the Logan Thomas I've been waiting to see since 2011. I'm not going to bite, done with him as a QB prospect. Happy to see him have a strong game though. Flip side of that game was that once again Attaochu is 100% dependent upon beating the OT with initial speed. If he doesn't jump the edge he's got nothing. Middle round prospect with legit developmental upside, echoes of Quentin Groves.

[Icness]

From this past weekend:

--Stephon Tuitt is incredibly overrated. Poor technique, low motor. Looked undraftable vs. Oklahoma, a game I saw in person. Scouts in attendance were not impressed either. Really, really doubt he goes in the top 50.

--Jared Abbrederis helped himself by lighting up Roby. Showed smoothness and the ability to create space for himself. Reminds me of a slower Pierre Garcon.

--Huge game in a loss for Zach Mettenberger, even though his final throw was a bad one. Def. one of the most improved passers. Looks like a 1st round pick based on this year.

--I like Washington safety Sean Parker more and more. Poor man's Louis Delmas.

--If only NIU QB Jordan Lynch was taller and threw with better arc. Great dual-threat player in the Russell Wilson mold, but the arm and precision aren't there. Still thoroughly enjoyed him and the Huskies blowing out Purdue. #MACtion baby!

[gswhoops]

Ice,

Is this the deepest QB class in recent memory? Just from a casual Googling it looks like there are nearly a dozen QBs that could potentially go in the first three rounds.

[Icness]

Ice,

Is this the deepest QB class in recent memory? Just from a casual Googling it looks like there are nearly a dozen QBs that could potentially go in the first three rounds.

The way I see it now:
Bridgewater--either 1 or 2 overall
Mariota--top 5 if he declares
Hundley--top 8 if he declares
Tajh Boyd--top 25 pick, maybe. I think he's a 5th round pick myself & I'm not alone. He's the black Colt McCoy.
Mettenberger--top 40, rising quickly
Derek Carr--top 50 pick, wait til his workouts & Senior Bowl
Morris--2nd/3rd round, probably top 50
Manziel--could go high, could go undrafted. He will not be back at TAMU in '14. He will not be on Kevin Sumlin's NFL team either, I'll guarantee that.

McCarron is not as widely regarded as Matt Barkley was, and that guy fell to the 4th.
Fales is falling as people realize his arm strength isn't there
Aaron Murray--I'll be honest, I have a poor grasp of his scouting perception. I see a quality career backup only. I prefer him to McCarron
Brett Smith from Wyoming would make for an interesting evaluation if he comes out. Gunslinger with some mobility, reminds my good friend Ben Allbright of a skinny Favre.

[zmanishere11]

Thanks for your thoughts on Abberdereis. I'm a Badger homer, but not as aggressive as most in their assesments on him. But dude just owned Roby on Saturday night - and it was worse than the numbers (200+ yards receiving) were. Roby was just mugging Jared the entire game, it was unreal.

[mnWI]

Ice,

Is this the deepest QB class in recent memory? Just from a casual Googling it looks like there are nearly a dozen QBs that could potentially go in the first three rounds.

The way I see it now:
Bridgewater--either 1 or 2 overall
Mariota--top 5 if he declares
Hundley--top 8 if he declares
Tajh Boyd--top 25 pick, maybe. I think he's a 5th round pick myself & I'm not alone. He's the black Colt McCoy.
Mettenberger--top 40, rising quickly
Derek Carr--top 50 pick, wait til his workouts & Senior Bowl
Morris--2nd/3rd round, probably top 50
Manziel--could go high, could go undrafted. He will not be back at TAMU in '14. He will not be on Kevin Sumlin's NFL team either, I'll guarantee that.

McCarron is not as widely regarded as Matt Barkley was, and that guy fell to the 4th.
Fales is falling as people realize his arm strength isn't there
Aaron Murray--I'll be honest, I have a poor grasp of his scouting perception. I see a quality career backup only. I prefer him to McCarron
Brett Smith from Wyoming would make for an interesting evaluation if he comes out. Gunslinger with some mobility, reminds my good friend Ben Allbright of a skinny Favre.

Did you see Smith against Nebraska? He not only impressed me with the throws he made and his mobility, but also the way he seemed to elevate the play of his teammates. When he does get drafted, I could see him going in the top half of the first round.

[Icness]

I saw Smith play Nebraska, actually charted it out:
http://www.detroitlionsdraft.com/2013/0 ... s-wyoming/

He definitely is exciting. Gonna get his guy Herron drafted in the late rounds. Smith clearly has that "it" factor with players. Saw that with Kaepernick and RG3 too, beyond the athletic talent they were just very naturally comfortable leaders, guys want to play with them and play better for them.

I've heard from someone reliable it's about 40/60 he comes out. He's got to build some muscle mass though, dude is real slight like a young Shaun Livingston build

[SpeedyG]

--If I had to do a quick top 10 based on how I think the draft will play out in May:
1. JAX-Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
2. TB-Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
3. PIT-Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA
4. OAK-Jake Matthews, T, TAMU
5. CLE-Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
6. CAR-Marqise Lee, WR, USC
7. MIN-Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA
8. NYJ-Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo
9. TEN-Mike Evans, WR, TAMU
10. ARI-Cyrus Kouandjio, T, Alabama

--I still think Johnny Football is undraftable even though he has demonstrably improved his passing vision

[JaxMagic]

--If I had to do a quick top 10 based on how I think the draft will play out in May:
1. JAX-Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
2. TB-Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
3. PIT-Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA
4. OAK-Jake Matthews, T, TAMU
5. CLE-Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
6. CAR-Marqise Lee, WR, USC
7. MIN-Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA
8. NYJ-Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo
9. TEN-Mike Evans, WR, TAMU
10. ARI-Cyrus Kouandjio, T, Alabama

--I still think Johnny Football is undraftable even though he has demonstrably improved his passing vision