RealGM

A year or so ago when the Packers had the #5 overall, I posed a hypothetical. How many picks could the team holding the #1 overall pick stockpile in the 2nd and/or 3rd round if they continually dealt down?

Every year you hear about teams wanting to get out of the top five. Usually it seems that the teams wanting to drop are asking for a king's ransom in doing so, however.

So why not make it easy and offer the team moving up a reasonable deal?

It was rumored that Tampa was in love with Johnson. Instead of going by the trade chart and asking for the #5, #37 and another #1 next season, how about simply taking Tampa's first three picks in '07 and calling it a day? Going by the trade chart it would be Oakland that comes up short, but they get their wish to move down while Tampa gets the most talented player in the draft.

Anyway, I don't think you would need to make concessions to move down as you go further along. Teams have been willing to give up first day picks to move up one spot. They want their guy and will pay to get him.

But check out the following scenario, created using the trade value chart. You tell me if Oakland would have been better served going this route:

Trade #1:
Oakland trades #1
Tampa trades #5, #37 and #69

First day picks left for Oakland:
#5
#33
#37
#65
#69

Trade #2:
Oakland trades #5
San Fran trades #11, #43

First day picks left for Oakland:
#11
#33
#37
#43
#65
#69

Trade #3:
Oakland trades #11
Pittsburgh trades #19, #51

First day picks left for Oakland:
#19
#33
#37
#43
#51
#65
#69

Trade #4:
Oakland trades #19
Chicago trades #31, #63

Final picks left for Oakland
#31
#33
#37
#43
#51
#63
#65
#69

Obviously with a shakeup like that taking place you don't know where exactly some players end up, but I still think you can have a good idea.

Oakland could have ended up taking home the following guys if they wished:

#31 - Greg Olson - TE
#33 - Paul Posluszny - OLB
#37 - Eric Weddle - DB
#43 - Sidney Rice - WR
#51 - Eric Wright - CB
#63 - James Marten - T
#65 - Brandon Mebane - DT
#69 - Trent Edwards - QB

I like that haul.

Well, the chances of them guessing right on every 2nd rounder like you posted are almost impossible. More than likely, with 8 2nd round picks, maybe 2 become starters and half of them are cut in a couple years.

Of course. But there isn't a huge penalty cap wise if you miss out on a few bad ones in the second.

Blow your top five pick though and the cap ramifications are huge.

How about Houston in '06:

#31 - Mathias Kiwinuka - DE
#33 - Demeco Ryans - MLB
#37 - Thomas Howard - OLB
#43 - Maurice Jones-Drew - RB
#51 - Greg Jennings - WR
#63 - Charles Spence - T
#65 - Eric Winston - T
#69 - Leonard Pope - TE

Most GM's don't have the balls to do what you're proposing. Fans and the media would just be in a outrage if their favorite team did that.

Or you could wind up with what the Lions did by dealing to get 3 2nd rounders:
Gerald Alexander, a quickly-improving starting safety
Drew Stanton, an IR stash/developmental backup QB
Ikaika Alama-Francis, an inactive stash all year with a mystery groin/ankle injury--he keeps forgetting which one is hurting him that particular week.

I hold the belief that the team with the #1 overall pick should always deal the pick for the best offer. Only Peyton Manning and Orlando Pace have won Super Bowls with the drafting team as #1 picks in the last 16 years.

DB....if there was any GM to do so....I think we have one up in GB.

Maybe we'll see this happen if the 49ers end up with a top-3 pick.