McShay's first mock

[ReasonablySober]

Made this post on Green Bay's board but thought we'd discuss it here as well...

1 - Miami - Glenn Dorsey
2 - New England - Darren McFadden
3 - NY Jets - James Laurinaitis
4 - Atlanta - Brian Brohm
5 - St. Louis - Jake Long
6 - Cinci - Sedrick Ellis
7 - Oakland - Chris Long
8 - KC - Ryan Clady
9 - Baltimore - Matt Ryan
10 - New Orleans - Keith Rivers
11 - Houston - Malcolm Jenkins
12 - Denver - Kenny Phillips
13 - Carolina - Andre Woodson
14 - Chicago - Mike Jenkins
15 - Philly - DeSean Jackson
16 - Washington - Derrick Harvey
17 - Arizona - Sam Baker
18 - Buffalo - Ali Highsmith
19 - Minnesota - Calais Campbell
20 - Detroit - Jeff Otah
21 - Dallas - Limas Sweed
22 - Tennessee - Malcolm Kelly
23 - San Diego - Rey Maualuga
24 - Seattle - Jonathan Stewart
25 - Tampa Bay - Aqib Talib
26 - NY Giants - Dan Connor
27 - Jacksonville - Vernon Gholston
28 - Pittsburgh - Michael Oher

29. Green Bay Packers
Current record: 10-2
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: RB, S, OL
Projected pick: Felix Jones*, RB, Arkansas
Ryan Grant has been a nice story this season but the Packers can't count on him as its premier back moving forward. The verdict is still out on rookie Brandon Jackson, who has failed to meet expectations so far. A proven veteran would be ideal but Jones has proven capable of contributing as a complementary weapon. He brings world-class speed to the table as a runner, receiver and return specialist.

30 - San Francisco - Early Doucet
31 - Dallas - Gosder Cherlius
32 - NE - Forfeit pick

Most mocks this early end up being terribly off, so to criticize the picks and call him nuts would be stupid. However, twenty of McShay's first round picks in his initial mock ended up going round one and three never declared. I think TM knows his stuff for the most part.

OK, now to pick it apart a bit...

He seems to be valuing need over BPA it seems. Chris Long falls about five spots too far. Same with Derrick Harvey, Calais Campbell, Vernon Gholston...hell, I think he's got all of the DE's lower than they'll probably end up.

I'm glad to see he's got Maualuga in round one. He's been one of my favorite defenders in college football the last few years.

If NE got McFadden and kept him I'd go into a massive depression.

I think Dorsey's a stud, but I just couldn't see spending the #1 overall on a DT. However, I don't know where else you go. It's a pretty weak group at the top this year. I think Long is as good a DL prospect as we've seen in years. But I'd still deal 15 spots down and take someone like Harvey, Campbell, Gholston...whomever falls. Even if you need a RB you're probably wondering whether or not you want to pay $50 million to play a position where undrafted free agents are putting up 1300-1500 yards.

I think this is one of the weaker classes of WRs in a while. I don't see four going in round one. Limas Sweed would be the guy I see dropping.

As for the Packers pick, it obviously brought a nice, big smile to my face. I've been jonesing for Felix to end up in Green and Gold since we first started talking the 2008 NFL Draft (no pun intended). Jones and Grant would be a perfect combination. Speed and home run hitting ability with FJ, and a between the tackles force like RG. Jones would immediately become our return specialist as well.

[Icness]

I've seen worse. Like you said, it's more an exercise in guesswork than actual "lock" at this point and McShay is well-regarded by pretty much all the insiders I know.

I think he's too hard on Calais Campbell, though I do think he does have slide potential. I also think his selection of Baker to the Cards is ridiculous--they spent their 1st rounder on a RT last year, and Baker is almost certainly an NFL RT (or LG).

Humble prediction--he got at least 27 of the first 31 players selected in this mock. Maybe not in the right spot, but they'll be in the 1st round. Of course his mock doesn't differ greatly from my own, so I'm hoping he's pretty accurate

[Jose7]

lmao.... James Laurinaitis @ #3?

I'd take either Long over him in a minute especially Chris Long. And Vernon Gholston at 27 no way, he's much better then that.

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

Dolphins fan here and Dorsey is not the guy I want to see them take at 1 unless they are trading for Brady Quinn or D Mcnabb. I would rather see them with McFadden or Brohm or Jake Long or Chris Long.

[dms269]

I can't see Atlanta taking Brohm. Petrino pissed them all off, there is no way they would take a Louisville guy.

[Monkeyfeng06]

^ same.

[ReasonablySober]

bull.

If they think he's the best available player on the board when they pick, they'll take him.

To not do so because he's a Louisville guy is just stupid.

[Monkeyfeng06]

well, combine scores haven't come out yet. i still think matt ryan is the best QB in the draft.

[A.J.]

i dont see the texans taking a corner in round 1.

fred bennett has shown flashes of being a starter in the future for us.
i see us taking a safety (kenny phillips) a receiver (desean jackson), or a runningback (jonathan stewart) in round 1.

[Icness]

It's impossible to predict what ATL is going to do--they're going to have a new GM, new Head Coach, and potentially a crapload of cap room. I agree with DrugBust though--if whomever is making the pick for them thinks Brohm is the BPA, then they'll take him no matter if he winds up being Petrino's bastard love child.

Watch Laurinaitis go top 4 if he has a great BCS title game, and he is well-positioned to have a monster night.

[PR07]

I heard Brohm didn't even like Petrino when he was at Louisville, and one of the reasons he stuck around was because Petrino was leaving.