MOck Draft 3.0 is up, posted 1/4

Post #1 » by **Icness** » Thu Jan 8, 2009 12:14 am

Sorry I haven't done much explanation with this one. This is a very busy time for me now that I work with an agent very closely and he pays me to advise him on collegians. If you have any questions about guys and/or team intentions, feel free to ask here.

http://football.realgm.com/src_feature_ ... ersion_30/

A couple of notes:
If you don't see a junior you expect to see, it's almost certainly for a reason. Maybin, Auston English, Terrence Cody, some others were left out because I want confirmation they are declaring before I put them in.

Three hardest slots:
The Chiefs at #3. Their front office and potential coaching change make it totally unclear. If Herm is back as coach, I would strongly doubt they go QB there, but if he's gone...
The Jets at #17. Just no feel for their direction yet
The Bucs at #19. I've got good info that Gruden is very tempted by the prospect of Tim Tebow, but I can't see them doing it there. The Bucs people I know are not real impressed with the WR class, but they know they need not just one, but two new starters. They might very well wind up drafting 3 WRs by the end of the 7 rounds.

D J C · Post #2 » by **D J C** » Thu Jan 8, 2009 12:54 am

Selvie already has said he's returning to school. The advisory board gave him a 4th round grade. Even if he did come out, I didn't see him going any higher than late 1st personally. Everette and Johnson over Orakpo? I'd take him over either of them for any scheme. I like Raji, but is he really necessary after Ellis was picked so high last year, and we gave an extra pick for him, and we have Pressley in waiting? I don't think the Bears would go with Maclin, if anything I think they'd go after a bigger WR or a DE. Does Marks fit in a 3-4? And would they draft a DT that high with Ngata playing so good? Why would the Falcons reach for a tweener that's best fitted for a 3-4? Hasn't Fasano done good enough for Miami that they would take care of a bigger need, such as CB or OLB, instead of taking Pettigrew? I know your not a Taylor Mays fan, but I'm just throwing this out there, I guarantee that he goes top 15. Tebow to the 9ers after Singletary just said he wants to go with a more conventional offense? I doubt the Bucs go LB so early with three young, promising LBs already on the roster. Just my opinon, but I see Lindley as one of the best man2man CBs in the entire draft this year. I see his basement at high 2nd round. Not a fan of Josh Freeman, Jared Cook, Gerald McRath, Emmanuel Cook, or James Casey?

Sorry there's so many comments and questions, just wanted to get your input on some of this. Don't get to pick the mind of an insider too often.

Also, I'd be very interested if you had any other info on the Bucs. Just no more Tebow talk :evil:

Post #3 » by **Icness** » Thu Jan 8, 2009 3:24 pm

Selvie made a wise decision to return to USF. His stock was dropping all the time, now he gets a chance to regroup and have a healthy, standout senior season. I'm not surprised at all that he made that choice.

Orakpo has some detractions, namely his health. Much like Brian Cushing, he's a weight room freak that is almost always battling some minor injury. The general book on guys like them is that they are so fanatical about their bodies that unless they are in perfect condition they hold back out of fear of aggravating their injuries (think Vernon Davis or Marshawn Lynch). And Orakpo's college career reflects that, so does Cushing's though he helped himself last season in that regard. It's not enough to drop him far, but it's enough that players of similar skill sets and ceilings will go ahead of him. Everette Brown is going to get serious consideration by a couple of team in the top 5, he's that well-regarded. Personally I don't get the Michael Johnson hype, but I know some NFL people buy it hook-line-and-sinker.

On the Saints, they need a 1-technique (a NT) to allow Ellis to play the 3-technique that he's suited for. Hollis Thomas is okay but they need a more dynamic young presence there. Think of the Vikings with the Williams Wall, that's what Raji and Ellis could be in New Orleans--potentially. They need that IMO more than yet another young secondary player, and I know a front office person in NO who agrees. They want to get tougher, and they believe a better front will cure what ails their back-end, which has better talent than shows on the field.

Senderrick Marks should have the ability to play DE in a 3-4. They covet versatility on D and they need depth up front. Ozzie Newsome is the kind of GM who takes whom he feels is the BPA for that team. I could see them going CB there if it's the right guy. Don't see a WR there though, not Ozzie's M.O.

I've said it before, I'll say it again: Taylor Mays is much more highly regarded by fans than he is inside NFL front offices and scouting departments. You're just gonna have to trust me on that one. Maybe he'll change some opinions in the interviewing process and solidify 1st round stock, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Trevard Lindley is a guy with serious upward mobility. I could see him cracking the top 40 overall with a solid workout season. I agree he's near the top of man-coverage CBs in this draft.

The Niners are a toughie, because Singletary is on record as not being sold on Shaun Hill and coveting leadership at the QB position. They are a candidate for Taylor Mays or Sanchez in the 1st, however, and I could see them aiming for interior OL in the 2nd too. Too early to say which direction they'll go, but I know Singletary feels limited by Shaun Hill. Alex Smith and JT O'Sullivan are both likely to be gone, so QB is an imperative. I do know they are one team that sees real positive potential in Tebow, and the leadership issue comes into play into that.

I'm not a Josh Freeman fan at all--I'd take Hunter Cantwell or Tom Branstater over him. But I'm not making those decisions...

Post #4 » by **Rafael122** » Thu Jan 8, 2009 7:10 pm

Any indication where the Redskins are going? Knowing Snyder and Cerrato, they would want to trade up to get Crabtree.

Post #5 » by **Icness** » Thu Jan 8, 2009 9:54 pm

Rafael122 wrote:Any indication where the Redskins are going? Knowing Snyder and Cerrato, they would want to trade up to get Crabtree.

I've heard they are going to be active in trying to get more picks. I know they are quietly shopping Carlos Rogers and Santana Moss for picks. I'll see lots of Skins staffers I know at Senior Bowl week so I'll have a much better idea then.

Just general FYI:
I will be at the Senior Bowl all week, except for the game itself, and I'll be doing some sort of audio blog or RealGM Radio or something from there every day. Still working out the details, but I should be able to pick up quite a bit of good info there.

gsw_hoops · Post #6 » by **gsw_hoops** » Thu Jan 8, 2009 10:14 pm

I don't think there's any way the Raiders draft a WR in the first round. Their main need is an OT (to keep Russell upright), then a DT (to stop the run).

Post #7 » by **Manhattan Project** » Thu Jan 8, 2009 10:27 pm

Id imagine that the 17th pick will go to the coach, pending what scheme he utilizes. I believe that if we stick with the 3-4 Spikes is the safe pick. We really need another LB that can cover, unless a talent slides in the draft. Moala I question if he is a good fit for the 3-4, again if we stick with the scheme. In the third round Id love to get a Kevin Ellison if he is still there as he is on your mock.

Post #8 » by **PhilipNelsonFan** » Thu Jan 8, 2009 10:54 pm

Ic, regarding the Bengals and their draft decisions: Are they really that obvious?

I'd be lying to you if I didn't see some combination of OT, RB and LB in the first three rounds in EVERY single mock draft. That isn't terrible, and those are three of the most obvious holes on the team, but are they just telegraphing their draft direction to other teams at this point? Because it absolutely seems like it.

Also, is there any hope that they spring for a center? I'd love to see them trade down from sixth overall and draft Alex Mack, Max Unger or Caldwell. Even a guy like Eric Wood would be appealing because of the massive hole there.

Not that Oher and Shonn Greene aren't fantastic picks that should make Bengals' fans happy, but it seems like, if all given information is correct, the FO has a really limited view of what this draft is and can be.

D J C · Post #9 » by **D J C** » Fri Jan 9, 2009 12:52 am

Icness wrote:Selvie made a wise decision to return to USF. His stock was dropping all the time, now he gets a chance to regroup and have a healthy, standout senior season. I'm not surprised at all that he made that choice.

Orakpo has some detractions, namely his health. Much like Brian Cushing, he's a weight room freak that is almost always battling some minor injury. The general book on guys like them is that they are so fanatical about their bodies that unless they are in perfect condition they hold back out of fear of aggravating their injuries (think Vernon Davis or Marshawn Lynch). And Orakpo's college career reflects that, so does Cushing's though he helped himself last season in that regard. It's not enough to drop him far, but it's enough that players of similar skill sets and ceilings will go ahead of him. Everette Brown is going to get serious consideration by a couple of team in the top 5, he's that well-regarded. Personally I don't get the Michael Johnson hype, but I know some NFL people buy it hook-line-and-sinker.

On the Saints, they need a 1-technique (a NT) to allow Ellis to play the 3-technique that he's suited for. Hollis Thomas is okay but they need a more dynamic young presence there. Think of the Vikings with the Williams Wall, that's what Raji and Ellis could be in New Orleans--potentially. They need that IMO more than yet another young secondary player, and I know a front office person in NO who agrees. They want to get tougher, and they believe a better front will cure what ails their back-end, which has better talent than shows on the field.

Senderrick Marks should have the ability to play DE in a 3-4. They covet versatility on D and they need depth up front. Ozzie Newsome is the kind of GM who takes whom he feels is the BPA for that team. I could see them going CB there if it's the right guy. Don't see a WR there though, not Ozzie's M.O.

I've said it before, I'll say it again: Taylor Mays is much more highly regarded by fans than he is inside NFL front offices and scouting departments. You're just gonna have to trust me on that one. Maybe he'll change some opinions in the interviewing process and solidify 1st round stock, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Trevard Lindley is a guy with serious upward mobility. I could see him cracking the top 40 overall with a solid workout season. I agree he's near the top of man-coverage CBs in this draft.

The Niners are a toughie, because Singletary is on record as not being sold on Shaun Hill and coveting leadership at the QB position. They are a candidate for Taylor Mays or Sanchez in the 1st, however, and I could see them aiming for interior OL in the 2nd too. Too early to say which direction they'll go, but I know Singletary feels limited by Shaun Hill. Alex Smith and JT O'Sullivan are both likely to be gone, so QB is an imperative. I do know they are one team that sees real positive potential in Tebow, and the leadership issue comes into play into that.

I'm not a Josh Freeman fan at all--I'd take Hunter Cantwell or Tom Branstater over him. But I'm not making those decisions...

I don't think Orakpo is as bad as Cushing though. I don't really like Cushing at all as a prospect and I thought his injury history was a little more significant. I just think Raks production this year and his combine numbers will make him a top 10 lock.

I love Raji as a prospect and think a Ellis-Raji line would be sick, but I just don't know if the Saints would invest that much into their DLine. They already have a lot tied up into Ellis, Will, Grant, and McCray. I was just thinking a WLB is the bigger need. I guess looking at it now though, no one thats near Raji in value is really there at #14.

I'm not really going off of personal preference, I just think that with the physical beast Mays is and playing on a great defense in college, his value will be greatly inflated come the draft. If he runs a 4.3 at his size like rumored, he screams "Al Davis" type DB and I think he could go 7th if Crabs is gone.

It's going to be interesting to hear who's high on Tebow. Seems like some teams feel he's a franchise QB and worth a 1st. Others seem to see him needing to change positions and not worth a first day pick.

I'm not a Freeman fan either, I like him slightly more than Tebow. But I can't help but think that some team will fall in love with his potential and draft him in the early 2nd.

Lesean McCoy just declared, looks like your mock might be shaken up again soon.

Post #10 » by **Icness** » Fri Jan 9, 2009 1:28 am

I haven't heard about McCoy, but if I were him I'd declare. This RB class is real thin, though it appears the market demand isn't real high either.

Re: The Bengals:
Theri scouting department is 3 full-time scouts, one scouting director, and three or four consultants. One of those consultants is a guy notorious for telling his entire life story and all the Bengals secrets if you get him a Jagerbomb. Really their entire organization has no concept of the concept of deception or strategy. Raiders fans kvetch about Al Davis all the time, but for my money the Brown family blows him away in terms of lack of football competence. One big tipoff was a radio interview Mike Brown did right after the season ended, where he declared they were going to add a RB to compete with Benson, an offensive tackle "or two", and more help for Keith Rivers. They sure as heck aren't going to pay for the top-level, or even second-level, free agents, hence the draft speculation. Sorry, my friend

SpeedyG · Post #11 » by **SpeedyG** » Fri Jan 9, 2009 6:44 am

Isn't Jason Smith from Baylor a SR? I don't see him in that mock.

Post #12 » by **ReasonablySober** » Fri Jan 9, 2009 3:18 pm

Still no Maybin and McCoy? I could see both returning very easily, but if you're going to be a top 10 pick don't you have to come out?

I don't see how anyone goes with Pettigrew over Gresham.

Oher, next to Mays, is the most overrated prospect in this class. I thought he looked up and down versus Texas Tech. Like a wall at times and a matador at others. Typical of his college career. No way do I trust him in the top half of round one. Personally, I'm taking at least five offensive tackles, along with Unger, Mack and Robinson before I go anywhere near Oher.

Post #13 » by **lpsevier** » Fri Jan 9, 2009 5:55 pm

Can the Falcons afford not to draft a DT in the first?

WAYSA · Post #14 » by **WAYSA** » Sat Jan 10, 2009 1:07 am

I really don't know how I feel about Maclin. He's probably never ran a real route in his life, but his speed & agility are incredible for his size.

Who would you compare him to?

I think an offense built around Forte, Maclin, Olsen, Hester could cause some real problems. The Bears will just need a real QB

WAYSA · Post #15 » by **WAYSA** » Sat Jan 10, 2009 1:08 am

DrugBust wrote:Still no Maybin and McCoy? I could see both returning very easily, but if you're going to be a top 10 pick don't you have to come out?

I don't see how anyone goes with Pettigrew over Gresham.

Oher, next to Mays, is the most overrated prospect in this class. I thought he looked up and down versus Texas Tech. Like a wall at times and a matador at others. Typical of his college career. No way do I trust him in the top half of round one. Personally, I'm taking at least five offensive tackles, along with Unger, Mack and Robinson before I go anywhere near Oher.

Duke Robinson looked awful last night.

Michael Oher is now vastly underrated.

Smooth32 · Post #16 » by **Smooth32** » Sat Jan 10, 2009 4:52 am

For the Browns:

- Not bad 1st round pick but I'm not sure the Browns need a CB. Yes Malcom is great but the front seven is a much bigger need and a good front seven is needed while good CB's aren't.

- I'd take Everette Brown there (best 3-4 'backer in the draft, as well as best pass rusher).

- In the 2nd, there's no way the Browns should pass up Max Unger or Tyson Jackson. Jackson is the best 3-4 DE in the draft and Unger is going to be one heckuva, versatile offensive lineman. I'd be tempted to take Mays there based on value, too.

Random thoughts:
- Orakpo is way too high. He's the most overrated player in the draft. He gets by with speed and strength--that won't work in the NFL.
- As good as Raji is, I don't think he goes that high.
- Michael Johnson doesn't warrant a top 10 pick, IMHO.
- Hakeem Nicks in the 1st...really????

WAYSA · Post #17 » by **WAYSA** » Sun Jan 11, 2009 7:41 am

I didn't see William Moore? Do you rank him as a 3rd round type prospect?

I thought he sucked every time I saw him this year.

El Turco · Post #18 » by **El Turco** » Sun Jan 11, 2009 4:43 pm

i d be surprised if beanie falls that much despite the knick-knack injuries. upside is too high to pass up on him and there are enough teams in top 10 that need a feature back.

Post #19 » by **Rafael122** » Sun Jan 11, 2009 7:35 pm

I think Wells gets taken by the Bengals. Cincy needs a running back. I don't trust Benson to carry the load for a full year, plus it will be great PR if they get the local college player.

Post #20 » by **PhilipNelsonFan** » Sun Jan 11, 2009 9:17 pm

As someone following the Bengals, drafting Beanie Wells with the sixth overall pick is about the worst thing they could do in this draft.

I'm not a fan of Wells' game. I think he is too injury prone. I don't think he'll be even close to Adrian Peterson. But lest we forget, Peterson runs behind one of the five best run-blocking lines in the NFL. The Bengals, meanwhile, have a horrid offensive line, one that didn't see a 100-yard rusher come through it until week 10 this season. (That's really pathetic, and I believe that was the worst mark in the NFL.)

So basically, Beanie would be killed in his first game and become an injury-prone bust for his Bengals career. Or, he'll just be an injury-prone bust (Chris Perry, Kenny Irons) anyway.

The big uglies are where they have to go, and Michael Oher is a good selection.