Official "Ask Jeff Risdon a question" thread

[Icness]

I know a lot of you ask me stuff and half the time I read it, intend to answer it, and then I get sidetracked and forget where or what it was. So if you have a draft related question, post it in here and I'll be better about answering it. I'm primarily talking about opinions on players, or what certain teams might be looking at (or not), or stuff like that.

As always, I'll be clear when I'm telling you I know something or if I just think I know or am just stating my opinion.

I really appreciate the support y'all give to me and I know some of you have promoted me on other sites, which is pretty cool. :

[ReasonablySober]

Who could fall/rise the most in your opinion? For example, you mentioned Barwin at #11 is at least in the realm of possibility. The Todd has him going late in the second. I find it hard to believe a guy with his athletic ability and upside could slide so far, but it wouldn't shock me.

[Friend_Of_Haley]

Well I already got my Pat White question answered before, so thanks for that.

You've also had Maclin going to the Bears in the first round twice in a row now. I read some article that says Harvin is the Bears guy. Do you have any input on this? Is Maclin just there because WR is an obvious need and Maclin is the best available? Could they go after Harvin too? Any insight on the Bears first rounder and WR would be great. Thansks.

[Icness]

Well I already got my Pat White question answered before, so thanks for that.

You've also had Maclin going to the Bears in the first round twice in a row now. I read some article that says Harvin is the Bears guy. Do you have any input on this? Is Maclin just there because WR is an obvious need and Maclin is the best available? Could they go after Harvin too? Any insight on the Bears first rounder and WR would be great. Thansks.

In the next incarnation Maclin will be long gone by the time Chicago picks. In earlier versions I actually had Harvin, and I know one of the keys for them is that he can supplant Peterson as the 3rd down RB, which is a point of emphasis this offseason. Now that they signed Kevin Shaffer (GREAT move IMO), it sure looks like Harvin is a real possibility. But don't rule out a 3-technique DT to play next to Harris at that spot either--and both Peria Jerry and Jarron Gilbert are in play. Kenny Britt has their attention too, and they love his size at WR.

[WAYSA]

What has changed with Jerry with you? I remember very early in the year you didn't have him as a top 100 prospect and I think the quote was that he was just a fat guy who stands up every play.

What about Hakeem Nicks and the Bears? Did his poor pro day really hurt his chances at getting selected at #18? Does the Shaffer signing mean the Bears would pass on a tackle like Michael Oher?

[Icness]

Who could fall/rise the most in your opinion? For example, you mentioned Barwin at #11 is at least in the realm of possibility. The Todd has him going late in the second. I find it hard to believe a guy with his athletic ability and upside could slide so far, but it wouldn't shock me.

I mentioned Jarron Gilbert above, and he is definitely rising. He can play 3 or 5 technique and he's a quick beast. Another guy who could be a shocking riser is Eben Britton, who is not OOTQ at #10 to SF. Josh Freeman could go as high as #8, which is a recent development.

William Moore is gaining momentum for some reason. File that one away.

Guys who could be in for a long draft Saturday:
Everette Brown. I like him but Orkapo has blown past him and Barwin and Maybin offer higher upsides, at least that's what most people will tell you. IMO Aaron Maybin is going to be the biggest flop in this draft (pre-emptive answer there!), but I know some teams love him.

Brandon Pettigrew--I covered him in my $.10 piece, and I got two emails from NFL people who told me I was right on in my assessment. 4.84 just ain't gonna cut it in the top 40, that's slower than Gilbert and some other defensive ends.

DJ Moore. He's not in anybody's 1st round anymore and hasn't been for awhile, but so many other CBs in that 2nd-3rd round range offer more tangible upside and assets than what he does. Teams weren't afraid to throw at him despite having absolute crap on the other side--that says something to coaches and GMs. I could see him falling to the 80-100 range.

[deeney0]

I was discussing the draft with a couple of friends the other day, and an interesting idea arose surrounding the fact the Detroit has no chance to find a taker to move down from #1. What are the chances of seeing a team intentionally go over their allotted time and let a few picks go ahead of them, à la the Vikings in 2003? If the Lions really want someone they felt would be their at 4/5/6, and don't want to pay the money of #1, whats to keep them from just waiting? Desperate economic times do call for creative solutions.

[ReasonablySober]

I'm fairly certain I was the first to mention Maybin on this forum many months ago. I think he's going to be a stud, but I could also see how someone views him as serious bust potential.

Brown apparently killed it at his pro-day. He improved the vert and lifted the weight a ridiculous 39 times.

Brown/Maybin/Orakpo......take your pick. I could pull one of the three names out of a hat and be happy. I can't come up with an order of preference. I love all three.

[Celtics_Champs]

never-mind. question was about peppers, but Jason Taylor rumors have started to pick up.

[Friend_Of_Haley]

Well I already got my Pat White question answered before, so thanks for that.

You've also had Maclin going to the Bears in the first round twice in a row now. I read some article that says Harvin is the Bears guy. Do you have any input on this? Is Maclin just there because WR is an obvious need and Maclin is the best available? Could they go after Harvin too? Any insight on the Bears first rounder and WR would be great. Thansks.

In the next incarnation Maclin will be long gone by the time Chicago picks. In earlier versions I actually had Harvin, and I know one of the keys for them is that he can supplant Peterson as the 3rd down RB, which is a point of emphasis this offseason. Now that they signed Kevin Shaffer (GREAT move IMO), it sure looks like Harvin is a real possibility. But don't rule out a 3-technique DT to play next to Harris at that spot either--and both Peria Jerry and Jarron Gilbert are in play. Kenny Britt has their attention too, and they love his size at WR.

Considering the Bears have a temporary patch with Shaffer at OT and there could be some solid WRs still around in the second round, I would absolutely love to see a DT like Jerry as the first pick. Good to hear.

Thanks for the answer.

[Icness]

What has changed with Jerry with you? I remember very early in the year you didn't have him as a top 100 prospect and I think the quote was that he was just a fat guy who stands up every play.

What about Hakeem Nicks and the Bears? Did his poor pro day really hurt his chances at getting selected at #18? Does the Shaffer signing mean the Bears would pass on a tackle like Michael Oher?

I watched more of Ole Miss and was more impressed with Jerry the more I watched. He learned the concepts of explosion and leverage. He still gets stood up too handily when he doesn't fire off the snap, but he's improving. He showed better ability to shoot the gap than I thought he had. Very good 3-technique DT prospect; I wouldn't put him in a 3- front. The Bears like him very much, FWIW.

The Shaffer signing means the Bears are done tackle shopping. Their OL focus is now at G, preferably one who can slide to another spot too. A player like TJ Lang or Andy Levitre in rounds 3-4 still makes a lot of sense. Between Williams and Shaffer the Bears are set at T for at least the next 2 years. Depth is of course an issue, but that's why drafting a G/T makes so much sense.

Nicks is sliding for more than just his pedestrian pro day. His lousy Wonderlic score was not unexpected. I don't expect him to be a 1st round pick anymore but the Bears were very interested in him, and Jerry Angelo rarely changes his mind on a prospect this late in the game. Kenny Britt has risen up in his place as the big-guy WR that teams will look at in the 18-30 range.

[Icness]

I was discussing the draft with a couple of friends the other day, and an interesting idea arose surrounding the fact the Detroit has no chance to find a taker to move down from #1. What are the chances of seeing a team intentionally go over their allotted time and let a few picks go ahead of them, à la the Vikings in 2003? If the Lions really want someone they felt would be their at 4/5/6, and don't want to pay the money of #1, whats to keep them from just waiting? Desperate economic times do call for creative solutions.

Adam Schein and Solomon Wilcotts talked about it on NFL Radio the other day too. They correctly brought up the issues with signing the player and slighting egos of both the player and agent. The player is going to demand #1 slot money even if the Rams picked first and that spells acrimonious holdout. Detroit absolutely will not draft someone they haven't already worked out a deal with, so it won't happen there. It's more conceivable in the range where the Vikings did it. Just as a thought, Cleveland could do it this year because Cincy picks right after them and they are looking at completely different players.

[-GIL-]

I know you've answered a lot of Browns related questions but, I've got more for ya.

* I've been reading Donald Brown is a lock if he gets to the Browns in the 2nd round. Anything on that?

* What's the latest on DA and BE?

* What's the latest at #5? I know they want to trade down but I'm starting to think if they stay, Crabtree will be their guy if Curry isn't there.

* Anything else of note on the Browns would be great.

Thanks, as always.

[GS Warriors 1]

I mentioned Jarron Gilbert above, and he is definitely rising. He can play 3 or 5 technique and he's a quick beast. Another guy who could be a shocking riser is Eben Britton, who is not OOTQ at #10 to SF. Josh Freeman could go as high as #8, which is a recent development.

Freeman at 8? Will he be the first QB taken? I know he's got the size and tools but thats too high imo.

Britton at 10 to the 49ers? That seems like a reach to me. They just signed Marvel Smith, so its likely they will take a tackle later on. Are they considering a QB there or is it a good bet that they go pass rusher at 10?

[Icness]

I mentioned Jarron Gilbert above, and he is definitely rising. He can play 3 or 5 technique and he's a quick beast. Another guy who could be a shocking riser is Eben Britton, who is not OOTQ at #10 to SF. Josh Freeman could go as high as #8, which is a recent development.

Freeman at 8? Will he be the first QB taken? I know he's got the size and tools but thats too high imo.

Britton at 10 to the 49ers? That seems like a reach to me. They just signed Marvel Smith, so its likely they will take a tackle later on. Are they considering a QB there or is it a good bet that they go pass rusher at 10?

Freeman won't be first but he could be 2nd. I still refuse to believe that there won't be 2 QBs taken in the first 8 picks. It might not be the teams picking there now, however.

And the Marvel Smith signing does pull the rug on the Niners taking a tackle at #10. I'll have to talk to my Niners people about where they are looking. They were my floor for Andre Smith but now I have to re-think that. Current working draft has Mark Sanchez but that is flexible. I don't think Orakpo will be there and just from prior conversations I know they're not big on Brown or Maybin, so I don't see them reaching there. Maybe Barwin or Tyson Jackson, IDK.

[Rafael122]

A name I haven't heard mentioned in awhile, Vontae Davis. A couple of months ago, he was a top 15 pick, but in your latest mock, you have him going 29th. What happened?

[Manhattan Project]

If there was a sure fire pro bowler rookie in this class, who would it be?

[-GIL-]

Any word on what the Seahawks will do at #4?

[Icness]

A name I haven't heard mentioned in awhile, Vontae Davis. A couple of months ago, he was a top 15 pick, but in your latest mock, you have him going 29th. What happened?

You'd be hard-pressed to find anyone who wouldn't list Davis as among the 5 most physically gifted players in this class, but he's got a couple of things working against him. First are his distrubing inconsistencies in his play. There were games at Illinois where he sure looked the part of a #1 NFL CB, but some other games it was like he was just going thru the motions or too easily beaten, take your pick. The relative failure of his brother, who had an eerily similar college career, really isn't helping him. And Vontae is another guy who didn't help himself in the interviewing process.

FWIW in the working draft of the next mock he's at #15 to Houston right now. But I could just as easily see him falling to the middle of the 2nd. IMO teams are going to be reluctant to spend such a valubale pick on a real iffy prospect when there are "safer" picks who are likely just as good. And Alphonso Smith is just as good, if not better.

[Icness]

If there was a sure fire pro bowler rookie in this class, who would it be?

Good question. I don't really see one. Alex Mack could do it for the right team (PIT, MIN). If Beanie Wells is sound of mind and body (big ifs) he's certainly got the ability. And let's say Matt Stafford goes #4 to Seattle, Hasselbeck goes down for good in week 2, and Stafford leads the Seahawks to 11-4 and the NFC West title while throwing 31 TDs. That's not out of the question.

If Eugene Monroe goes to STL (looking more likely all the time) and plays as well as I think he can, he's got a real chance. IMO Monroe is slightly better than Ryan Clady coming out, and Clady did it last year for a non-playoff team. Now that I think about it more he's probably the best bet. Joe Thomas did it the year before so it's not like rookie tackles aren't getting the attention.