college football 2011

[dice]

so...notre dame ranked surprisingly high. lots of people complain about the pollsters favoring them unduly, so i did a little research. here are the preseason and final polls since expansion to top 25 from top 20:

89 7 2
90 2 6
91 6 13
92 3 4
93 7 2
94 2 U
95 9 11
96 6 19
97 11 U
98 22 22
99 18 U
00 U 11
01 18 U
02 U 9
03 20 U
05 U 9
06 2 17
09 23 U

4 of the last 7 years they've started and ended the season unranked. i left those out. of the remaining 17 seasons, 5 times they did better than their preseason rank, 11 times worse

but given that they were ranked top 10 preseason for 9 consecutive years, it's natural that there would be a tendency to finish worse in most of those years given the fact that there's more room to fall than there is to rise

i'd say that based on this data there's been a bit of a historical tendency for pollsters to overrate the irish, but it could very well just be random variation

[bagsboy]

IMO, there are many strange issues with the polls. There is an east coast bias based mostly on game times. Late games on the west coast are not widely viewed by the sport reporters and the public on the east coast. There is a large amount of 'goodwill' voting. Teams that have been ranked high in the past have a better chance at high ranking then new and improved programs. Also, team seam to move up based on upcoming game match ups. Ok/Tx, Mia/Fl St, etc always seam to have the lower ranked teams moving up before the big game. IMO as a Seminole fan, Florida State's current pre-season rank is based upon their match up with Oklahoma.

When I gambled in the past, I always bet college rather than pro games. Some betting lines are as strange as the polls.

[Icness]

IMO, there are many strange issues with the polls. There is an east coast bias based mostly on game times. Late games on the west coast are not widely viewed by the sport reporters and the public on the east coast. There is a large amount of 'goodwill' voting. Teams that have been ranked high in the past have a better chance at high ranking then new and improved programs. Also, team seam to move up based on upcoming game match ups. Ok/Tx, Mia/Fl St, etc always seam to have the lower ranked teams moving up before the big game. IMO as a Seminole fan, Florida State's current pre-season rank is based upon their match up with Oklahoma.

When I gambled in the past, I always bet college rather than pro games. Some betting lines are as strange as the polls.

Nice post rookie, come here more often. I agree with pretty much everything you said.

I don't even think about ranking college teams until October. Too many unknowns and I really try to avoid the preseason hype and hubbub.

[craig01]

so...notre dame ranked surprisingly high. lots of people complain about the pollsters favoring them unduly, so i did a little research. here are the preseason and final polls since expansion to top 25 from top 20:

89 7 2
90 2 6
91 6 13
92 3 4
93 7 2
94 2 U
95 9 11
96 6 19
97 11 U
98 22 22
99 18 U
00 U 11
01 18 U
02 U 9
03 20 U
05 U 9
06 2 17
09 23 U

4 of the last 7 years they've started and ended the season unranked. i left those out. of the remaining 17 seasons, 5 times they did better than their preseason rank, 11 times worse

but given that they were ranked top 10 preseason for 9 consecutive years, it's natural that there would be a tendency to finish worse in most of those years given the fact that there's more room to fall than there is to rise

i'd say that based on this data there's been a bit of a historical tendency for pollsters to overrate the irish, but it could very well just be random variation

Could be, but I tend to lean on the overrated thing personally.

[Huuminh]

It's amazing to see the great programs go down, many which I'm happy about like THE OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY and hopefully Auburn will get sanctions for Cam Newton at some point.