RealGM

Even if the top 3 teams (Bama/Oregon/TCU) all win, K-State surprisingly only needs to beat Baylor and have 2 other games go their way:

Wisconsin over OSU
Georgia Tech over FSU

That's it. That would be enough to get them in as the #4 seed.

Current rankings:

1) Alabama
2) Oregon
3) TCU
4) FSU
5) Ohio State
6) Baylor
7) Arizona
8) Michigan State
9) K-State
10) Mississippi State
11) Georgia Tech
12) Ole Miss
13) Wisconsin

K-State would jump the #4-8 teams:
Michigan State (a win at Baylor moves KSU back ahead of idle MSU),
Arizona (just lost to Oregon),
Baylor (KSU just beat them),
Ohio State (just lost to Wisconsin), and
Florida State (just lost to Georgia Tech).

The ranking committee has already shown a propensity for ranking teams with more losses ahead of FSU, so I think it's reasonable to presume that the committee would move some of the 2 loss teams ahead of 1-loss FSU.

There would be some risk of K-State being jumped by Georgia Tech or Wisconsin, but imo those teams are too far back in the rankings to warrant jumping a K-State team that would have just gone on the road and beaten Baylor. The big thing going for Wiscy and GT is that they'd be conference champions, but I don't know if that's really enough to close the gap with K-State and overtake them. (One thing's for certain: if KSU gets in ahead of Wiscy and GT, there will be an outcry for giving more weight to being a conference champion.)

If the top 3 teams win and K-State beats Baylor, Wiscy beats OSU, and GT beats FSU, then I think the rankings would look like this (# of losses listed after team name):

1) Alabama 1
2) Oregon 1
3) TCU 1
4) K-State 2
5) Georgia Tech 2
6) Wisconsin 2
7) Michigan State 2
8) Mississippi State 2
9) Florida State 1
10) Ohio State 2
11) Baylor 2
12) Ole Miss 3
13) Arizona 3

I question whether the committee would put in 2 big 12 teams. If Wisconsin beats Ohio State they have to have an equally good shot of jumping in along with GT if they beat FSU. Mississippi State could also be a candidate to jump in but that seems less likely.

I think the final rankings could change around a bit when the voters let it sink in that this is the final vote. This final vote is the most important and there are a 5-6 teams who could make those 5-6 spots if FSU and Baylor lose.