Updated Rankings

[Wannabe MEP]

I have to disagree. Right now they look good in the polls (like they do every year early in the season)

I mean...this objective analysis by 538 suggest that PAC 12 teams may in fact be the least overrated early in the season — mostly underrated. Out of 17 teams that have a history of regularly winding up with worse final rankings than their preseason rankings, only one (USC) is from the PAC 12:

• 5 — SEC
• 4 — Big Ten
• 3 — ACC
• 3 — Big 12
• 1 — Pac 12
• 1 — other (Notre Dame)

And the bottom part of the conference looks DREADFUL (Oregon St, Arizona, Arizona St).

You think that crew is appreciably worse than Rutgers, Purdue, and Illinois? than Boston College, Syracuse, and Virginia? than...

But other than that the Pac 12 really hasn't done anything yet.

Well, not many games have been played yet. In the small sample size that we have, the PAC 12 has the best winning % against the rest of the power 5 thus far, at 4–1. It's not like any other conference has a superlative resume already. ACC, SEC, and Big 12 all have losing records against other Power 5 teams. The only other conference with a winning record against the rest of the power 5 is the Big Ten, and 1) PAC 12 has the head-to-head edge at 2–1 so far, 2) Big Ten has some embarrassing losses, and not much in the way of impressive wins, and 3) they flopped on the biggest stage they've had so far (loss to Oklahoma) after going 3–7 in the bowls last year.

So it's pretty hard to be wowed by any conference so far. Everyone's had mixed results.

I'd put SEC #1, and then everyone else really close to each other. I think the middle of the Pac-12 might be the best in the nation, actually. But I'm not at all convinced yet that the top tier Pac-12 teams are really elite.

[LAKESHOW]

Every conference has their elite teams. And then the bottom half falls off. Vanderbilt. Az State. Northwestern. Iowa state. etc The list goes on and on. I still believe Oklahoma is the best team and their conference has the depth this year. imo.

[hermes]

going into the year i thought the big ten might be one of, if not, the best conference but they really haven't shown it thus far. i mean purdue is looking better but rutgers and illinois are just as bad. not to mention northwestern and nebraska sliding back a little to start the year

the middle still seems squishy, like it always has (msu, iowa, minn, indiana). and the teams i thought might be elite/very good (osu, mich, wis, psu) have not been very impressive (to varying degrees) - not a lot of imposing their will

most impressive team is probably maryland - and i don't think that's moved them past middle of the pack

[Wannabe MEP]

I don't remember the conferences ever looking this even...



(from Sagarin)

[Bulltalk]

I don't remember the conferences ever looking this even...



(from Sagarin)

That's what I've been saying. I don't see the SEC dominance this year. I think the top half of the Big Ten is better than the top half of the SEC, and I think the Pac 12 is right there with the Big Ten and SEC.

[hermes]

that's funny how they line up symmetrically

and thanks sec east for being the worst division, so the big ten west isn't

[Wannabe MEP]

According to 538's Elo predictions, these are the 13 teams with at least a 10% chance to make the playoff:

[hermes]

well with all the ranked teams losing there was a fair amount of shakeup in the rankings

1. Alabama
2. Penn State
3. Georgia
4. TCU
5. Wisconsin
6. Ohio State
7. Clemson
8. Miami
9. Oklahoma
10. Oklahoma State
11. USC
12. Washington
13. Notre Dame
14. Virginia Tech
15. Washington State
16. NC State
16. South Florida
18. Michigan State
19. Michigan
20. UCF
21. Auburn
22. Stanford
23. West Virginia
24. LSU
25. Memphis

[LAKESHOW]

I'll put wazzu vs Syracuse. And that would be a blow out win for the cougs.

[hermes]

first college football playoff rankings are up
http://www.espn.com/college-football/rankings

georgia
alabama
notre dame
clemson

are the top four

[OsuCavsfan103]

What crappy first rankings...

Clemson is getting a pass because of their last few years, in reality they lost to a freakin unranked team who is 4-4 on the year. Oklahoma has not looked good at all since week 2, for god sakes they struggled mightily with winless Baylor.

Oh well, still early and a lot will change from now til when it actually matters.

[LAKESHOW]

How the heck is Alabama #2. How can you rank ND#3? Because of a win over USC? I've said it long ago, both USC lines are depleted. They are not the same as last year. Or because of a close loss to Georgia? So that's what we're counting? Close losses? Why is Clemson #4? They lost to some orange team from the Northeast? BS. Strong arguments can be made that 2 of the 4 teams are a mistake. Put Oklahoma back in. And I'll take Penn state's close loss to Ohio state over anyone elses close loss.

[hermes]

penn st and ohio st losing really put a hamper on the big ten's odds of getting a team in the playoff. all on wisconsin now and they have to win out

[LAKESHOW]

Oklahoma. The prediction is still alive!

[Wannabe MEP]

Down to nine Power Five teams with 1 loss or less. I'm not sure there will still be 4 standing at the end. Any of Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac 12 could easily wind up with a two-loss champion.

[Wannabe MEP]

9 Power 5 teams with one loss or less. Literally none of them likely to win out (see last column — all below 50%).



E.g., Alabama only has 32% chance to win out — makes sense in that they still have their three toughest games in front of them.

[Bulltalk]

CFP rankings have the Washington Huskies at #9...

1) Georgia (9-0)
2) Alabama (9-0)
3) Notre Dame (8-1)
4) Clemson (8-1)

5) Oklahoma (8-1)
6) TCU (8-1)
7) Miami (8-0)
8) Wisconsin (9-0)
9) Washington (8-1)
10) Auburn (7-2)

Interesting games this week, games that will/could definitely shake up the CFP rankings once again:

Washington vs. Stanford
Georgia vs. Auburn
Iowa vs. Wisconsin
Notre Dame vs. Miami
TCU vs. Oklahoma

If Washington can knock off Stanford on Friday night, they will likely move up to the #7 spot in the rankings, as two of the four teams above them (Notre Dame, Miami, Oklahoma, TCU) will lose because they play each other. There's also a chance that Georgia could lose to Auburn on the road, or that Wisconsin could get beat by a hot Iowa team, or that even Alabama or Clemson could get upset, though doubtful that is.

I'd love to see the Huskies at #7 or even #6 after this weekend. They'd only have to win their last two games at home then to make the Pac 12 championship game with an 11-1 record. Then they'd at least have a chance to play their way back into the CFP.

[Wannabe MEP]

1) Georgia (9-0)
2) Alabama (9-0)
3) Notre Dame (8-1)
4) Clemson (8-1)

5) Oklahoma (8-1)
6) TCU (8-1)
7) Miami (8-0)
8) Wisconsin (9-0)
9) Washington (8-1)
10) Auburn (7-2)

Literally the entire top-10 plays a team rated in the FPI top-25 this week. 3 of them have to lose (because they play each other).

I bet there's at least 1 more that goes down.

[hermes]

new ap rankings (which don't matter but still), top 10

alabama
miami
oklahoma
clemson
wisconsin
auburn
georgia
ohio st
notre dame
oklahoma st

[LAKESHOW]

Oklahoma is the pick. It's still viable