USC over Oregon

[jumanji]

Might as well get it out there early. The Trojans seemed to have weathered their storm and should be relatively healthy by next saturday. Oregon has some problems with their receivers and i think that will hurt them. They run a nice option there as evidenced by the win at Husky stadium, problem is they arent playing the Huskies, the SC front 7 should spend most of the day in the Ducks backfield. Look for Dixon to take a beating.

[PhilipNelsonFan]

USC still has to score some points too. Joe McKnight is as good as advertised but the Ducks have seen elite running backs before. And I'll take our secondary over their receivers but we've still got to do a better job against their tight end.

I haven't seen much of USC's defense but it's a real good run defense IIRC. So you have two teams that match up strangely. USC is more talented, but Oregon's shown better execution. USC will probably return a couple of starters for the game, which Oregon doesn't have the luxury of doing, but it's at Autzen and the Ducks just cannot be counted out.

[jumanji]

USC still has to score some points too. Joe McKnight is as good as advertised but the Ducks have seen elite running backs before. And I'll take our secondary over their receivers but we've still got to do a better job against their tight end.

I haven't seen much of USC's defense but it's a real good run defense IIRC. So you have two teams that match up strangely. USC is more talented, but Oregon's shown better execution. USC will probably return a couple of starters for the game, which Oregon doesn't have the luxury of doing, but it's at Autzen and the Ducks just cannot be counted out.

I agree with everthing you said. Should be a heck of a game, a great opportunity for the SC front 7 to shine.

[randomhero423]

i also think USC will win. they are missing 3/5s of their line. it looks like baker/starting guard will be playing. i'm confident with good protection/running game USC will beat oregon. USC's defense as been very good against the run. i'm not a big fan of htier secondary though.

[neplife]

Oregon is BY FAR the best offense the Trojans will have to play, plus the game is at Autzen. This is no longer ND, or Stanford, or Arizona or even Nebraska, this offense is number two in the country in rushing, and points. It will be a great game, but dont expect USC to slow down Oregon much, if they want to win they will need to put up points.

[Icness]

I'm leaning towards the Ducks, mainly because it's in Autzen and because a pretty lousy ND defensive front did a fair job against the decimated USC O-line yesterday. IMO the turnover battle will decide the game, and it's real hard to bet against USC's playmakers in the front 7. Crap, I'm gonna have to flip a coin...

[PhilipNelsonFan]

Also (and you can make this call go either way), this game was circled on the calendar at the beginning of the year. This, Cal, and Michigan. Mike Bellotti would love nothing more to go 2/3, and he has the power (even if he doesn't show it a lot) to outcoach Pete Carroll.

[El Turco]

i ll take USC here as well. their linesman and star power should make the difference. i dont really buy the game being in autzen making that big of a difference as Cal showed-team that lost to ore-state and UCLA.

[neplife]

i dont really buy the game being in autzen making that big of a difference

I think Michigan will disagree with ya on that one.

[jumanji]

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I think Michigan will disagree with ya on that one.

FWIW that game was in Ann Arbor.

[Icness]

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FWIW that game was in Ann Arbor.

It was, and IIRC the Wolverines won in Autzen last year. Or at least in the recent past.

[Monkeyfeng06]

oregon's defense didn't do much against the huskies.

[jumanji]

oregon's defense didn't do much against the huskies.

They really didnt, offensively they had that option going where Dixon most of the times pitches the ball, personally i dont think he wants to keep the ball against the SC linebackers, that could be hazardous to his health.

[El Turco]

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I think Michigan will disagree with ya on that one.

not only that game was in ann arbor, there s a big difference between that michigan team and the current one.

[GSWbandwagon]

autzen is overrated. in recent years oregon only wins about 60% of the time there. i saw a stat elsewhere that the ducks were 12-8 in their last 20 at autzen coming into the cal game so they're like 13-9 now (i could be off a little, i'm not sure where the wsu and uw games were for oregon)?

oh, and the big difference between the michigan team from the start of the year and this one is the type of offenses/qbs its faced.

[neplife]

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FWIW that game was in Ann Arbor.

FWIW(whatever that means) we played Michigan at Autzen in 2003 and beat them, it was there only loss in the regular season, I believe they went on to play in the Rose Bowl.

[neplife]

oregon's defense didn't do much against the huskies.

Well the offense did; 55 points and 661 yards.


That game was our defenses worst showing though, we held Michigan and WSU to 7 points, and we held a good Fresno team to 14, we also held Cal to just 3 points at the half, it was turnovers that cost us that game.

[neplife]

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not only that game was in ann arbor, there s a big difference between that michigan team and the current one.

Why is there a difference? cause they are tearing through the weak Big Ten? Michigan had Hart and Henne healthy for the Oregon game, only when Oregon was up four touchdowns did Henne get hurt and have to leave the game. Michigan is a good team now and was a good team when we faced them, dont start trying to make excuses and take away from Oregon's beat down of Michigan at the big house.


EDIT- Anyways back to the topic, this is going to be a great game, these next two weeks are going to decide the PAC 10.

[Icness]

I'll reignite the Ducks-Wolverines for just a moment...

Michigan has struggled badly with mobile QBs in spread offenses for years. Look at their loss to Northwestern a couple years ago, or the issues they had with Drew Stanton and MSU or Troy Smith and OSU or Minnesota. Their DC English refuses to adjust what he's going to do based on the opponent--they ran a base 4-3 for at least half the game against both App State and Oregon's spreads. Lloyd Carr finally laid down the law and made English come up with a better plan to handle those situations. They changed safeties, stopped rushing the DL up the field so quickly, and got the reserve DBs up to speed. They bottled up Juice Williams & Co. very adeptly last week thanks to those changes. One other issue UM has--they don't have anyone like Dixon or Williams on the roster to run the scout team, and their coaches are unfamiliar with how to run the option-spread even on a scout-team basis.

That doesn't answer the offensive woes Michigan had against Oregon, who completely shut them down for almost the entire game. That's what really stands out to me when I think about Oregon in this USC game--they took away the middle of the field from Michigan, a team with a better OL and RB and WRs than USC. Even though the Ducks haven't come close to doing that ever since, that seed is planted that it can be done. USC's patchwork line and inconsistent RBs and WRs are going to have to come out in synch and be ready for attack.

[Da Schwab]

I've got the Ducks over the Condoms in this matchup.


I really think Oregon will make the USC D look like they're running in slow motion.