RealGM

So I went and looked at my last years final stats and 9 of the top 10 in total pts were QB's. We had standard scoring( 1pt 25 yards passing, 1pt 10 yards rushing w/no bonuses) and only 4 pts for passing TD and 6 for rushing.....which is common in many leagues.....so my question is why do all the "experts" say go RB in Rd 1 when QB's score the most points?

If you think about it you just answered your own question

9 out of the top 10 guys were QB's, so unless your in a league where you play 2 QB's on your active roster, your almost guaranteed to get one of those guys in most leagues.

The dropoff for QB's is a lot less than the dropoff for RB's and WR's as far as from Hero to average, and then from average to zero sometimes really quickly.

If you can get almost the same production out of a QB you got in round 5-7 as you would in round 1 or 2, why wouldn't you?

On the other hand, if you do take that QB in round 1, your likely to drop from a guy like Ray Rice to a guy like Knowshon Moreno at RB or from a guy like Roddy White, to a guy like Malcolm Floyd at WR. Maybe not quite that far depending on your league, but you get the idea. Those are going to be more significant differences, and of course part of that depends on the depth of your league, your scoring format, if there are keepers, and how smart the guys your drafting/playing with are.

There's a chance you could get that much more value out of a 1st or 2nd round QB to make it worth doing, but it doesn't happen often enough to make up for what you give up with the rest of your roster.

If you remember your beginning econ classes, they called that kind of thinking "opportunity cost".

If you haven't, do some mock drafts and play with different rounds you take your QB in. You'll get a better feel of what you like as far when talent dries up at different positions

You can pick up any yahoo qb off waivers during a bye week and they will get you 20 points. Same thing can;t be said about running backs. The talent pool just isn't as big

Saying there isn't much separation with QB's isn't really true in most formats.

There's usually 3 or 4 tier levels.

The top usually 3 are on a whole different level, then there's the 4 to around 10 group, then you have another group of around 5 or 6 and some waivers guys who are quite respectable when favoring good matchups, such as games where they'll probably fall behind and have to chuck the ball all over to catch up but not against a truly smothering defense, in other words shootout games.

After that you have the scrubs.

So I think the moral of the story is only take a QB in the first two rounds that has a very good shot of being in the top 3 who are on a whole nother level.

Now that comes down to personal belief and some luck and also you have to figure there's a chance a guy who goes much later blows up, but if I'm taking a QB early it's gonna have to be a guy who has a real chance to go ape **** because of a multitude of factors I have researched, yet is guaranteed to be top 10 even if he doesn't reach my lofty expectations.

Mike Vick to me, for example is maybe the worst 1st round pick in fantasy football since the last year Priest was going 1st round when he completely fell off.

I think it also depends on the exact value at the point where you're picking.

There's literally only 7 to 9 RB's I'm taking in the first two rounds period.

If I don't get one of those guys I'm going with at least one pick a top WR.

Also depends on your format. I pretty much won't play non-PPR.

I like the 2nd post answer, but beyond that I wouldn't dare draft a QB in any of the first 7 rounds. With only 4 pts for a TD, I wouldn't draft a QB until at least like 4 or maybe many more than 4 other teams have drafted their 2nd QB.

In the mocks I like to wait until round 6 and get Ben/Freeman/Ryan.

I feel they all should have good years and feel comfortable with them.

I disagree with Vince. I think Mike Vick is the only QB you should consider in round 1 (non-PPR). He just has the ability to score 30-40 points on a weekly basis. The running yards and touchdowns added to the passing is what separates him. Don't get me wrong I love Rodgers, Rivers and Romo but honestly I will probably go into my season with Freeman or Stafford as my starter picked in rounds 5-8.

I'm also going running backs 4 of my first 6 picks (we play wr/rb flex)