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Trade advice -- late deadline (this Sunday)
Posted: Tue Nov 1, 2011 9:35 pm
by Maritimer
The Cam Newton owner in my league is also a Brees owner. After starting 5-0, he's lost 3 straight and is scrambling. It's the same guy I scammed Steve Smith from earlier in the year for Dallas Clark straight up, so he's wary of getting scammed again, but he figures Newton is his best bet to right the ship. Rivers has been my guy (it's a keeper league where we can keep 5 players each year, and Rivers has been with me since I joined), but he's infuriating me and pairing Newton and Smith post bye week is realllly tempting.
Here's my team at the moment (standard scoring, 10 team, H2H, start 2 RB 2 WR 1 flex):
Rivers
Turner / BJGE / Greene / D. Murray / Lynch
Smith / Maclin / Colston / Boldin
Gates / Gronkowski
I think he's ready to sign off on trading me Newton and Addai for Boldin and one of Greene or the Law Firm. I think I have to do it, right? The question is which offer? Greene has more keeper value, I think. Here are the schedules the rest of the way (playoffs in bold):
Greene -- @Buf NE @Den Buf @Wsh KC @Phi NYG
LawFirm -- NYG @NYJ KC @Phi Ind @Wsh @Den Mia
Greene has the better playoff matchups by far, but BenJarvus Green-Ellis has some sweet matchups coming up (Giants, KC, Phi, Ind). Who would you rather trade? I'm leaning Law Firm, for full disclosure.
Re: Trade advice: trading for Cam Newton
Posted: Tue Nov 1, 2011 9:43 pm
by Bleeding Blue
I saw a ton of Faulk on Sunday, so I wonder if BJE is gonna be losing some carries in the future, if so ship him out before he loses value. Great work on the Clark/Smith trade! I have smith too and he is putting on some serious numbers!
Re: Trade advice: trading for Cam Newton
Posted: Tue Nov 1, 2011 9:48 pm
by Maritimer
Yeah, the Faulk business has me worried. Now, a lot of the stuff I've read on the situation says that Faulk's heavy workload was due to the Patriots being behind and passing a lot (from ESPN -- Faulk played 39 snaps, Green-Ellis played 13, Woodhead played 4, Ridley played 0). I honestly can't tell if I'm selling high (was his first half abnormally good) or low (bailing after a bad game because of a matchup). When it comes to Greene, is he on the upswing or have I seen his peak?
Re: Trade advice: trading for Cam Newton
Posted: Tue Nov 1, 2011 9:53 pm
by Maritimer
More info on the matchups... the numbers in parentheses are team rankings for points allowed to RBs per week.
Greene -- @Buf (20), NE (22), @Den (9), Buf (20), @Wsh (16), KC (25), @Phi (29), NYG (23)
LawFirm -- NYG (23), @NYJ (28*), KC (25), @Phi (29), Ind (30), @Wsh (16), @Den (9), Mia (4)
I don't buy the Jets as an awful run defense, hence the star. They've allowed three above average games on the road (Oakland, Baltimore, New England), but have allowed below average points in each game at home (Dallas, Jacksonville, Miami, SD).
Re: Trade advice: trading for Cam Newton
Posted: Tue Nov 1, 2011 10:07 pm
by Bleeding Blue
I think Greene is on the upswing, as Rex Ryan said they are going to go back to a heavy run offense. BGE is tricky because as the weather gets worse teams tend to run more (especially in NE), but the Pats defense is so bad they will be forced to pass a lot to put up points.
Re: Trade advice: trading for Cam Newton
Posted: Wed Nov 2, 2011 12:47 am
by Maritimer
So, given my roster, would you do the deal (Newton/Addai for LawFirm/Boldin)?
Newton / Rivers
Turner / Greene / D. Murray / Addai / Lynch
Smith / Maclin / Colston
Gates / Gronkowski
A few other random shots:
- I've contacted another owner with TE issues about his Dez Bryant and Blount (I think Blount is a buy low if you can get him). I'm hoping I can convince him to take Gronk for either. I should be able to then play the matchups from here on out with my RBs.
- The Felix Jones is willing to part with him, and he says Ingram is available "for the right price". Is Ingram for Rivers a deal to do after Newton's bye week, or is that too low for Rivers? Where do you guys see their respective values?
- Is it time to cut bait with Lynch? He's still got two games against St. Louis left and one against Philly, but he also has to play Dallas, Baltimore, Washington, Chicago and SF. I've got waiver requests in for McGahee, Benson and Cruz where I'd drop him, but outside of those guys is he worth keeping over upside plays like Tate, Decker (not a fan with Tebow there), Harvin, Ogbannaya, or Ringer?
Re: Trade advice: trading for Cam Newton
Posted: Wed Nov 2, 2011 8:30 pm
by Maritimer
Well, trade's done. Boldin and the Law Firm for Newton and Morris. Decided I didn't like Addai and the Colts situation, and the Best owner is a guy I think I can trade with (he has Best, Jones, and no reliable QB; I've now got Murray, Morris and Rivers).
Re: Trade advice: trading for Cam Newton
Posted: Wed Nov 2, 2011 9:31 pm
by Bleeding Blue
I like your trade, good work. I agree about Addai, I dont see much from him the remainder of the year. I question if Best will come back this year to be honest, 2 concussions already...I see them putting him on the rack to be safe. I wouldnt want Jones either as he is being replaced by Murray, I definitely wouldnt trade him. I like Dez if you can make a move for him.
Re: Trade advice: trading for Cam Newton
Posted: Wed Nov 2, 2011 10:18 pm
by Maritimer
Thanks man. Glad to have someone to bounce ideas off of!
I've actually already offered the Blount/Bryant owner a Gronk for Blount trade straight up. I like Bryant too, but I think I'll target Blount first (already offered Gronk straight up for him). I'm pretty happy with the Smith/Maclin/Colston trio for now.
Re: Trade advice: trading for Cam Newton
Posted: Wed Nov 2, 2011 10:24 pm
by Bleeding Blue
Maritimer wrote:Thanks man. Glad to have someone to bounce ideas off of!
I've actually already offered the Blount/Bryant owner a Gronk for Blount trade straight up. I like Bryant too, but I think I'll target Blount first (already offered Gronk straight up for him). I'm pretty happy with the Smith/Maclin/Colston trio for now.
Yeah Blount is a beast, assuming he gets right from his knee injury he will put up really good numbers....especially with Graham out for the year. Who is that guys TE? I doubt he will take the trade unless he is desperate at TE
Re: Trade advice: trading for Cam Newton
Posted: Wed Nov 2, 2011 10:27 pm
by Maritimer
Waiver wire... played Shiancoe last week. I doubt he takes it either, but it's worth a shot.
Re: Trade advice: trading for Cam Newton
Posted: Wed Nov 2, 2011 10:57 pm
by Bleeding Blue
Maritimer wrote:Waiver wire... played Shiancoe last week. I doubt he takes it either, but it's worth a shot.
Oh yeah , definitely worth a shot...you have to start low! Let me know what you end up doing
Re: Trade advice: trading for Cam Newton
Posted: Fri Nov 4, 2011 1:46 am
by Maritimer
K, he's shot that down, because he only has Forte, Blount and P. Thomas at RB. I haven't asked him about Dez. I think to get either deal done, I'd have to replace a player at that position.
Here's the current situation:
Newton / Rivers
Turner / Greene / D. Murray / Morris / Jacobs
Smith / Maclin / Colston / Cruz
Gates / Gronkowski
I have a standing offer of Tolbert for Jacobs. I will also have to cut either Cruz or Morris to pick up a kicker, though I have offered the Bradshaw owner a Jacobs/Cruz package for Benson.
Here are a few options:
A) Do the Tolbert deal and stand pat until next week. Probably cut Cruz since I need RB depth over WR depth.
Newton / Rivers
Turner / Greene / D. Murray / Tolbert / Morris
Smith / Maclin / Colston
Gates / Gronkowski
B) Do the Tolbert deal and flip him with Gronk for Blount. Keep Cruz.
Newton / Rivers
Turner / Blount / Greene / D. Murray / Morris
Smith / Maclin / Colston / Cruz
Gates
C) Do the Tolbert deal and trade Cruz with Gronk for Bryant.
Newton / Rivers
Turner / Greene / D. Murray / Tolbert / Morris
Smith / Maclin / Colston / Bryant
Gates
D) Push for the Benson deal and stand pat.
Newton / Rivers
Turner / Greene / D. Murray / Benson / Morris
Smith / Maclin / Colston
Gates / Gronkowski
I do not know for sure that I could actually pull off B or C, but they seem plausible. I'd have to be content with Tolbert over Benson if I tried those routes.
One final note -- I'm currently tied with this guy at 4-4 (along with one other 4-4 team). We have the 4,5,6 spots in the playoffs, so I have to be careful about how good a deal I make with him (if I should help him at all).
Re: Trade advice -- traded for Newton, now what?
Posted: Sat Nov 5, 2011 12:43 pm
by Bleeding Blue
I think I like option C, but make sure you feel Gates can start the rest of the way or you could be hurting at TE bad...also check Nicks status bc of he is out for a while Cruz's value goes up.
The would base the tolbert/jacobs trade on which share back is out longer. I know Matthews and Bradshaw are both hurt so I would want the RB who is going to get more carries down the road.
Re: Trade advice -- traded for Newton, now what?
Posted: Sat Nov 5, 2011 1:16 pm
by Maritimer
I did the Tolbert/Jacobs deal. Even if Bradshaw misses more time, Jacobs is just awful now and the Giants' schedule gets rough from here on out. SD plays a short week, turning around around and playing Thursday night at home against Oakland. I'm hoping that Mathews stay out and Tolbert is good trade bait for a team desperate for a starter, or at the very least as a handcuff for the Mathews owner.
I think I'm not going to worry about packaging 2 for 1 this week. If I need points going into Monday, I can drop Morris for Henery. My opponent's players all play Sunday games (and only one on Sunday night), while I have Maclin going in the Monday nighter. I should have a pretty hoof idea of whether or not I'll need the kicker points. It'll also give me an extra week to watch Gates and to decide which TE to hang on to.
Re: Trade advice -- traded for Newton, now what?
Posted: Fri Dec 2, 2011 5:04 pm
by Maritimer
OK, our trade deadline is late -- the end of the regular season. Here's the team I'm sitting with at the moment:
Newton / Rivers
Turner / Murray / Greene / Tolbert
Smith (Car) / Cruz / Maclin / Colston
Gronkowski / Gates
Jets DST
(I hate myself for cutting Lynch so I could pick up Jacobs, who I then traded for Tolbert. Did it right before his monster game against Dallas that started this **** ridiculous streak of his).
I'm getting next to no interest in Rivers or Gates, but I'm trying.
- The guy in first place needs a TE, and his team has underperformed recently. The best he's willing to offer for Gates is Starks or Ingram in a one for one swap. I can make a case for each guy -- GB could rest Rodgers and rely on Starks in weeks 15 on, Ingram could get more work as the playoffs get closer and they try to rest their older backs... also, it's a keeper league where we keep 5 guys each year. Don't love it though.
- Talking with a guy who has Mathews, Mendenhall, Barber, Nelson, Lloyd and Bowe. Only willing to offer Barber in a one-for-one swap. Has also offered Barber/Bowe for Gates/Greene. Greene is really underperforming, but can I really go into the playoffs with Tolbert and Barber as my 3/4 RBs?
- There's nothing doing on the Rivers front, though I've talked with an owner a few weeks ago who threw out Reggie Bush (probably off the table now), Stewart (inconsistent, and do I really want 3 Panthers?), and Antonio Brown (no idea if he's still available). He's also got Ben Tate, who could be an interesting late season play if Houston is able to rest Foster.
Any thoughts?
Re: Trade advice -- late deadline (this Sunday)
Posted: Sat Dec 3, 2011 5:42 pm
by Maritimer
Update -- traded Gates/Tolbert for Starks/Ingram. Hoping one of them gets heavy work down the stretch (and both have more keeper value).