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Who to Keep?

Posted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 8:56 pm
by W. Unseld
I have up to 3 guys I can keep and if I keep them I have to give up the pick for the round they were drafted in--I sucked in this league but did win my other league, anywho:
Forte: Rd 2
Maurice Jones-Drew: Rd 3
Big Ben Round 6
Sam Bradford: Round 7
Beenie Wells: Round 7
J. Maclin: Round 9
Ben Tate: Round 13
Brandon Pettigrew: Round 13

My temptation is to go Maclin and Ben Tate b/c I would not be giving up much in terms of drafting rounds. MJD is also tempting--if traded to Detroit or Green Bay he could be absolutely sick--heck he was sick last year with the worst possible qb/WR situation but I'm also worried the Jags new owner wants to prove a point. The league is a standard scoring 1 pt per 10 yards, no ppr and 6 points per td no matter where it comes from. Thoughts?

Re: Who to Keep?

Posted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 10:01 pm
by vincecarter4pres
I'd keep Maclin, Tate and I'd lean towards giving up my 2nd and keeping Forte.

MJD is interesting. He could wind up traded in a great situation and is a super talented back no matter where he goes.

If he remains in Jacksonville I don't like him much though, whether he holds out or not. Then again he should still have good trade value as long as he doesn't hold out and in a keeper pickings probably are meh in round 3, but that's why I lean heavily towards also keeping Forte.

Pettigrew could be fantastic value as well, he has a real chance at 900+ and 7+ TD's, but you can probably find a TE later no matter what, so as good as his value is, I'd probably go with Maclin, Tate and Forte.

Tate I'm keeping just simply off value, both trade and the round you have to give up.

Maclin is a must keep in round 9. He has major breakout potential this year and you'd be spending a 6xth to early 7th round pick on him right now in a redraft.

You know what? Yeah I think you have to keep Forte as well. He's too good, too slept on. Worst case you're giving up your 2nd for a guy that's going early 2nd in redrafts and he's very consistent while also having a number of very big games. So slept on, not sure why other then the lack of TD's he usually racks up.

Who to Keep?

Posted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:28 pm
by W. Unseld
Thanks for the analysis Vince--on Forte are you not worried about Bush gobbling up touchdowns & carries?

Re: Who to Keep?

Posted: Thu Aug 23, 2012 12:28 am
by vincecarter4pres
Forte has never been the goal line back and I don't think Bush will take away enough touches over the course of the game to lower Forte's usually high rankings.

I'm starting to think about it more... I'd keep Forte, MJD and Maclin if I'm you.

You'll still have a high 1st round pick and then your picks rounds 4 through 8 and then 10th and on.

You could wind up with a hell of a core to build around to take it down this year and still wind up with some great long term keepers if you draft well and get lucky in the later rounds.

Luck and Trent Richardson are 2 interesting 1st round picks for a keeper league, even McFadden if no one keeps him.

Any ideas on who will be out there of real interest in rounds 1 and 4?

How about 3rd round if you don't keep MJD?

Re: Who to Keep?

Posted: Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:09 am
by NW7
I would keep MJD, Forte and Maclin.

Pettigrew and Tate are awesome value wise, but they just aren't the players that those other three are. In general I'm a big fan of Pettigrew. If this was a PPR league I think I would choose him over Maclin, but it's not. I think TE is sort of deep this year, or rather it has a lot of guys going in the later rounds with a ton of upside. One or two of them will probably break through and be a really good TE this year. Chances are you can get another good value TE in the same late rounds as you got Pettigrew (or go waiver wire hunting when the season starts). As vincecarter4pres said Maclin has solid value and high potential, can't pass that up.

I know it's probably tempting to look at MJD and want to have a clean break from him due to the holdout, I just don't think now is the time to do it. The value for him (in general) is really really nice in the 3rd round. This guy in standard leagues would be a top 7 pick without the holdout. I think you need to keep him as an asset. Worst comes to worst you trade him when he eventually does show up this year and cut ties then, or you wait til the offseason and move him (assuming you can in your league) when his value will more then likely be where it should be, or you get lucky and this is all just a charade and he's here for the first regular season game (not likely but whatever!).

And my thoughts on Forte are pretty much identical to Vincecarter4pres

Re: Who to Keep?

Posted: Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:20 pm
by Godgers
I wold keep MJD, Forte, Wells.

Re: Who to Keep?

Posted: Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:22 pm
by vincecarter4pres
Beanie Wells? He's likely to be the backup and at best goal line and 8 to 10 touch per game guy as long as Ryan Williams doesn't get hurt again or fall flat on his face.

He's hurting and he's never been great, I wouldn't doubt he's on a different team next year and he has backup or lower on a committee totem pole written all over him from this point forward.

He shouldn't even be a thought.

Who to Keep?

Posted: Sat Aug 25, 2012 7:00 pm
by W. Unseld
I got BF'd by the new commish & would've had to burn a first rounder on Forte or a 2nd rounder on MJD so I'm going with a weak but spread out Big Ben @ 6, Maclin @ 9 & Tate @ 10. The only good news is for the first few rounds only about 6 can draft until all 12 come back in the 4th so I'll have 3 good rounds to build the rbs up &/or maybe add a stud WR.

Re: Who to Keep?

Posted: Sat Aug 25, 2012 7:11 pm
by vincecarter4pres
Why would you have to use a 1st and 2nd on those guys?

Also, depending on what pick you're getting in the 1st, Forte is worth keeping still in all likelihood.