RealGM

Keep 5:

Newton
Murray / Turner / Greene / Leshoure / Ingram / Starks / Scott
Cruz / Maclin / Smith (CAR) / Colston / Floyd
Gronkowski

Newton, Gronk, and Murray are locks. Cruz is almost definite. Question is then Turner or one of the WRs. Thoughts?

I'm tempted to try to trade Turner for one of the following:
1) Brandon Marshall (may try to move up a bit in the draft with this)
2) Mike Wallace
3) #2 overall pick in the redraft portion (all the throwbacks and all rookies... basically, best player thrown back or 2nd best rookie, since Richardson will almost certainly go first). Leaning toward keeping Maclin in this case, even though most ranking sheets seem to have Smith ahead of him.

Im not a fan of turner this year, but if you trade/dont keep him you are really thin at RB

I'm going to assume that the players kept are just from your first 5 picks and not from when you drafted them, but I would probably keep: Newton, Murray, Gronk, Cruz. I don't really feel like I need to justify picking these guys, I think that they are clearly your 4 best players.

For the final spot it comes down to either: Smith, Turner or Turner trade. Personally in this situation I would not keep Maclin, I'm high on him in general, but in this situation given the players/options you have I really couldn't justify keeping him over the others. You have to nit pick a bit in this situation, and given Michael Vick's injury tendency's I wouldn't feel safe relying on a rookie QB (even though Foles has looked solid) to produce at a good level in the regular season if called upon. I think my preference order for the final kept player would be this:

1) Trade Turner for Marshall
2) Trade Turner for 2nd overall pick *
3) Keep Steve Smith
4) Trade Turner for Mike Wallace
5) Keep Turner

I'm definitely down on Turner this year. Everyone seems to be speculating that he will have a lower role in the offense this year due to their change in philosophy. I agree with that. I think both Jacquizz Rogers and Jason Snelling will see a bigger role as they try to expand their playbook and utilize the pass with their running-backs. So I think that either one of those 3 trades you have lined up are something that I would consider before keeping Turner. Marshall is poised for a great year now that he is back with Cutler, I think he'll be a top 10 WR easy, this would be my first choice.

My second choice would be trading Turner for the 2nd overall pick. Do you have any idea what players might be made available outside of rookies? I know that keeping 5 players is a lot but if someone had a few break through players you might get lucky and have 1-2 legitimate players made available + Trent Richardson. If it's Trent Richardson + a huge drop off in players after him then I would slide this to option 4/5 (also do people have to keep 5 players? Could someone theoretically keep just 3 players then have 2 draft picks before the start of the real "first round"? That would also foil this plan a bit).

Third choice is keeping Smith. Newton should be improved in the passing attack this year and I think Smith should benefit from that. Fourth choice is trade for Mike Wallace, I think with the Pitt RB mess the passing game will be out in full motion. Wallace should benefit greatly from that.

Final choice is keeper Turner. You are very thin with RB's and that's the only reason why I have keeping Turner over keeping someone like Maclin or Colston. If you don't keep Turner you are going to have to hope you get your hands on someone like Doug Martin, Donald Brown, maybe Hillis or someone else. Either way it's going to be ugly at RB for you potentially.

Thanks for the input, both of you.

NW7 wrote:I'm going to assume that the players kept are just from your first 5 picks and not from when you drafted them, but I would probably keep: Newton, Murray, Gronk, Cruz. I don't really feel like I need to justify picking these guys, I think that they are clearly your 4 best players.

Agreed.

For the final spot it comes down to either: Smith, Turner or Turner trade. Personally in this situation I would not keep Maclin, I'm high on him in general, but in this situation given the players/options you have I really couldn't justify keeping him over the others. You have to nit pick a bit in this situation, and given Michael Vick's injury tendency's I wouldn't feel safe relying on a rookie QB (even though Foles has looked solid) to produce at a good level in the regular season if called upon.

Interesting. I'm waivering on him quite a bit. He was poised for a breakout year last year, and even with Foles I think he'll be fine (he's a more reliable target than Jackson). He was looking like a 1100 yd, 8 TD guy in his second year. Third year should mean a leap...

I think my preference order for the final kept player would be this:

1) Trade Turner for Marshall
2) Trade Turner for 2nd overall pick *
3) Keep Steve Smith
4) Trade Turner for Mike Wallace
5) Keep Turner

I'm definitely down on Turner this year. Everyone seems to be speculating that he will have a lower role in the offense this year due to their change in philosophy. I agree with that. I think both Jacquizz Rogers and Jason Snelling will see a bigger role as they try to expand their playbook and utilize the pass with their running-backs. So I think that either one of those 3 trades you have lined up are something that I would consider before keeping Turner. Marshall is poised for a great year now that he is back with Cutler, I think he'll be a top 10 WR easy, this would be my first choice.

With you on all fronts.

My second choice would be trading Turner for the 2nd overall pick. Do you have any idea what players might be made available outside of rookies? I know that keeping 5 players is a lot but if someone had a few break through players you might get lucky and have 1-2 legitimate players made available + Trent Richardson. If it's Trent Richardson + a huge drop off in players after him then I would slide this to option 4 (also do people have to keep 5 players? Could someone theoretically keep just 3 players then have 2 draft picks before the start of the real "first round"? That would also foil this plan a bit).

Everyone is forced to keep 5 players (and, yes, everyone loses their first 5 picks). Here is my guess at some players that will be cut loose, aside from my own players and the available rookies (not in order of interest):
- 1 of Gore/AJohnson/Charles/MWallace/Demaryius (likely Gore or Thomas, right?)
- 3 of Hillis/FJax/ABrown/StewBeef/RBush
- 1 of Bradshaw/Marshall/Nicks/Lynch (he'll keep Stafford and Graham I think, and probably cut Marshall since he's a huge Giants homer)
- Sproles, BJGE, Beanie, D. Moore, Wayne, DeAngelo, Spiller, DJax, Redman, Stevie Johnson, Britt.

Add in my players and rookies and those are more or less the guys available in the first two rounds (I'll have picks 8 and 11). I hadn't gone through the exercise of checking out available players. Some interesting names there...

Third choice is keeping Smith. Newton should be improved in the passing attack this year and I think Smith should benefit from that. Fourth choice is trade for Mike Wallace, I think with the Pitt RB mess the passing game will be out in full motion. Wallace should benefit greatly from that.

I'm pretty down on both options, Smith because of age and Wallace because of the drop off in the second half of the year and the lack of familiarity with Haley's playbook.

Final choice is keeper Turner. You are very thin with RB's and that's the only reason why I have keeping Turner over keeping someone like Maclin or Colston. If you don't keep Turner you are going to have to hope you get your hands on someone like Doug Martin, Donald Brown, maybe Hillis or someone else. Either way it's going to be ugly at RB for you potentially.

My game plan had been to try to lock down three really good WRs, then load up on RBs and see who sticks. Given the list of players who might be available, I'm not sure if that's going to happen or not...

Edit: After projecting some keepers, and looking at some past tendencies, it's conceivable that the Stafford owner might thrown him back and keep Marshall. There are three guys picking ahead of him, and he might lose Stafford, but he might not (knowing him, he'd be fine picking up Eli or another QB who is also thrown back).

Maritimer wrote:I'm tempted to try to trade Turner for one of the following:
1) Brandon Marshall (may try to move up a bit in the draft with this)
2) Mike Wallace
3) #2 overall pick in the redraft portion (all the throwbacks and all rookies... basically, best player thrown back or 2nd best rookie, since Richardson will almost certainly go first). Leaning toward keeping Maclin in this case, even though most ranking sheets seem to have Smith ahead of him.

1) Wait, someone's going to do this trade? That's awful!

Turner is toast, trade him ASAP, especially in a keeper!

2) You sure you're not overshooting his value here?

3) How could Turner possibly land you this?! Is this is a money league? Allow me in now!

Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're saying here, but you're saying you're contemplating one of these trades for Turner?

I have to be reading this to fast lol.

BTW, keep Cam, Maclin, Gronk and Cruz without question.

Probably keep Murray depending on what pick he loses you.

I was really high on him a couple weeks ago but that line is in shambles and he's injury prone, so I don't love him, but I guess you keep him for the future, not just this year, so make him #5.

Actually, are you making these trades ahead of your draft or are they like prearranged deals? Basically if they are ahead of time I would do this, I would keep: Newton, Murray, Gronk, Cruz and Smith or Maclin (I prefer Smith, but Maclin works too) then trade Turner for the 2nd overall pick in the redraft. In the redraft, then take your chances are getting TRich or one of those solid awesome players that should be still their by your judgement (hopefully Brandon Marshall, or heck even Stafford if he's there).

This seems to be the best choice, assuming the trades are done ahead of the draft.

Trades would be done ahead of time. I don't know for sure that the other guys would make any of those trades, they're just ideas based on the rankings published by some of the major websites and ESPN's average draft position.

Maritimer wrote:Trades would be done ahead of time. I don't know for sure that the other guys would make any of those trades, they're just ideas based on the rankings published by some of the major websites and ESPN's average draft position.

Ahh gotcha. Well I would say all those trades are on the wishful thinking side of things, but I would certainly try to do them. Ideally then I would keep those 5 players (Newton, Murray, Gronk, Cruz and Smith or Maclin) and try to get the 2nd overall pick in your redraft for Turner (I really don't see any scenario in which the person accepts that though).

Yeah, I don't either. I think I'm probably heading into this thing with QB and TE locked up, Cruz and Maclin as my WRs and Murray as my only RB. Picking 8th and 13th (out of, let's say, Demaryius, Hillis, StewBeef, RBush, Marshall, Sproles, BJGE, Beanie, D. Moore, Wayne, DeAngelo, Spiller, DJax, Redman, Stevie Johnson, Britt). I hate my team already.

What? Your team has a chance to be beast with the keepers you have and some good drafting plus some luck.

But yeah, those Turner trades aren't wishful thinking, they're pipe dreams and pretty much offensive offers lol.

They're the type that results in a "This guy..." and a strong exaggerated eye roll behind your opponents screens and smart phones and a swift counter of Christian Ponder for Cam Newton.

Just awful haha.

There are a wide variety of Turner opinions. Yours is certainly shared by some, but it's on the extreme end. All I need is one person to have a more moderate view (solid RB2) and a trade would be possible.

Anyway, the keeper deadline is tomorrow at 10 pm, and we require a 24 hour veto period on all trades, so it looks like I'm stuck where I am.

I don't think my opinion is extreme, those trades are flat out laughable especially #3.

True, re: trading for the pick. As for Wallace and Marshall, they're all in the same ballpark in rankings and ADPs in lots of places I look. Anyway, you're clearly talking to a guy who's not totally sold on Turner (after all, I'm trying to dump him for value). He had 1150 yards and 10 TDs last year (including one receiving). I don't expect the TDs to fall, it's the yardage that concerns me. If you think he falls off a little, say to 1000 yards, then he'd have been a top 15 back last year. If the fall is of LT proportions (though he still had 12 rushing TDs in his last SD year), say to 750 yards, then he's flex material. It's all perspective (though, like I said, I'm leaning toward your POV more than the optimistic POV I've seen elsewhere and that I'm hoping someone else has).

Anyway, doesn't matter. Don't think any trades are going to happen for now.

Yeah I think Turner is going to fall off a cliff.

Only an occasional surprise big game and maybe 800 yards or so with single digit TD's in a committee where he eventually(maybe by week 8) becomes the #2 to Rodgers.

I still see him going ridiculously high compared to my expectations, but I also have seen that pretty much no one wants him in trade and people are taking him either cause they don't understand how likely a falloff is for a back like him and just see his big name and prior gaudy stats or they take him thinking he'll have trade value to a person who thinks that way, but they forget those type of fantasy players usually overrate and refuse to trade who they draft no matter what you offer them.

I have a hard time seeing Rodgers as the true #2. I think it's far more likely that they finally just move to a pass first offense, with Turner in on first, Rodgers and Snelling playing most 2nd and all 3rd downs (Snelling is a better pass protector, so I definitely think you'll see him in there lots), and Turner taking goal line work when Roddy or Julio draw PI calls in the end zone. I'm still looking at Rodgers as, at best, Sproles during his SD days. A very good tool to have in real life football but never a guy you'd call a true #1.

Anyway, I doubt I'll end up Turner. My hope is that one of the 7 guys drafting before me decides to make the mistake. Best available players:

QB
Stafford (!!) (big gap), Romo and Rivers, (big gap) everyone else

RB
Richardson, Sproles, Turner, Martin, R. Bush, both Carolina backs, and all the rest of the RBs you'd expect to find out of the top 50 overall

WR
Colston, Smith, D. Jackson, D. Thomas, Decker, S. Johnson, lots of others.

Hoping to walk away with Martin and Decker from my first two picks (8 and 13). I'd also be happy with Sproles, who I think gets a ton of work just like last year (or Deangelo if Stewart is out for a while), and any of those other named WRs as my WR3. Really, I'm hoping to lock down that good WR3 aim for TItus Young as a late WR4, and use the rest of my picks on RBs looking for a home run (Hillis or Tate, D. Brown, Ryan Williams, A. Morris just to see if I can trade him after Week 1, M. Bush in case of injury, Dwyer, etc).

Incidentally, re: Dwyer, Redman is available to draft in my league, but I think I might stay away. There was an article out of Pittsburgh in the last day or two talking about how they think they may have something special in Dwyer, and I tend to agree. Mendenhall, even when he was healthy, was looking like a guy who could only run 3 yards and fall down into the line. Redman looked capabale if unremarkable, but Dwyer was the guy who, when he played, made things happen. He's one to keep an eye on.

Maritimer wrote:I have a hard time seeing Rodgers as the true #2. I think it's far more likely that they finally just move to a pass first offense, with Turner in on first, Rodgers and Snelling playing most 2nd and all 3rd downs (Snelling is a better pass protector, so I definitely think you'll see him in there lots), and Turner taking goal line work when Roddy or Julio draw PI calls in the end zone. I'm still looking at Rodgers as, at best, Sproles during his SD days. A very good tool to have in real life football but never a guy you'd call a true #1.

I think you more or less just wrote an excellent likely breakdown on Atlanta, just that if you see Rodgers how I do, which you seem to be close to me on, he is more or less a true #2, he just does most of his damage through the air.

Sproles with some added carries is a beast, even if we curtail him to his SD reception #'s, which I think you'll see this year even in NO.

Say Rodgers winds up with on average about 10 carries a game and 4 to 5 receptions after week 4 to 9(whenever he finally takes over as the main spread RB option)?

He'll put up some nice games in all likelihood.

Ryan is more of a checkdown QB then it seems on the surface and if they do go to the air more often and abandon the run like we both assume, a lot of the running game will be supplanted by screens and lining Rodgers up wide and the such.

Anyway, I doubt I'll end up Turner. My hope is that one of the 7 guys drafting before me decides to make the mistake. Best available players:

QB
Stafford (!!) (big gap), Romo and Rivers, (big gap) everyone else

RB
Richardson, Sproles, Turner, Martin, R. Bush, and all the rest of the RBs you'd expect to find out of the top 50 overall

WR
Colston, Smith, D. Jackson, D. Thomas, Decker, S. Johnson

Hoping to walk away with Martin and Decker from my first two picks (8 and 13). I'd be happy with Sproles, though, and any of those other WRs as my WR3.

I doubt Martin slips that far in a keeper with the way the hype(mainly deserved) is building on him right now, but that would be sick if you got him.

Is Ridley out there by any chance?

Also, Stevie Johnson is a much better option this year then I think he's being given credit for and is only 26 so has a lot of keeper value.

DeSean Jackson is an intriguing option as well.

Like Decker a lot myself though.

Titus Young isn't out there right?

Antonio Brown?

Yeah, I don't know about Martin slipping. It's not totally crazy to see Richardson, Turner, Stafford, Sproles, and 3 WRs go before my pick. I'm not banking on it, but it's possible.

Titus Young is out there -- I plan on nabbing him to be my WR4.

Brown was, unfortunately, kept. Would have loved to have him (and almost got him for Rivers last year in a trade, but the Brown owner wasn't paying attention to his trade offers and one of my other Rivers trade proposals got accepted first).

Johnson and Jackson are definitely interesting, though I don't know if I want both DJax and Maclin.

Ridley's out there, but I won't draft him. I'm hoping he goes in the 7 picks before me, actually. Ridley will have good games, but you'll NEVER know when they're coming. BJGE was a lock for 1000 yards and 10 TDs, but he was worthless in fantasy because you just never knew what would happen from game to game. Vereen, Woodhead, Hernandez, the sprinter whose name I can't remember -- they'll all get chances. The only think I might do is draft him and try to trade him, but that's a risky proposition in my league.

I'm higher on Ridley then most. I think he has a legitimate shot to be a 300 touch feature back as long as he doesn't start fumbling. He has great burst with some wiggle to his game and has improved as a receiver, solid blocker, he should see the field a lot. New England runs the ball a lot more then it seems.

I wouldn't burn your 1st rounder on him, maybe even your second, but he's a thought.

What picks do you have after that?

As for Titus Young(I accidentally deleted this preface sentence, just realized it) in a keeper league if these guys know what you're doing I don't see him slipping too far. He's a dangerous option in an absurd vertical attack with the best receiver in the world playing next to him freeing him up for constant single coverage. He has a chance to be just beast and make your other WR's very expendable.