Getting On Base

[GYBE]

It's a simple concept, but one the Cubs have seemingly been ignoring for the past few years.

Simply put, we need our 1 and 2 hitters to get on base a lot more often than they have. Right now, our leadoff spot has a OBP of .242, good for 25th in the majors. Soriano will get a bit better, but he's never going to be on that much (career .325). Compound this with mediocre and inconsistent production from the 2 slot and the offensive problems aren't hard to spot.

Lee and Ramirez are both having great starts. Unfortunately, they never have anyone to drive in. They're both htting over .400 and have less RBI's than Barrett (.200) because when Michael comes up there are actually guys on. And Lee and A-Ram won't hit this well forever, it's almost like we're wasting their hot starts.

I'm not sure of the solution though. Part of me wants a lineup like this:

Theriot
Murton
Lee
Ramirez
Soriano
Barrett
DeRosa
Izturis
Pitcher

But, Murton and Theriot are a little inconsistent themselves. I think Hendry should explore trade options for someone to hit at the top of the order. Anyone getting on base at a decent clip will get droves of runs with that heart of the order. Until there's a bit of a philosophy change, I fear our offensive woes may continue.

[2poor]

I think Izturis is the most "natural" leadoff hitter we have. He did it for a bit in LA, and IIRC his all-star year came when he was primarily batting leadoff. Switch hitter, good speed. Two of the things managers look for in a leadoff hitter. Also much more capable of bunting for a base hit than Soriano is, not that I'd even fathom seeing Soriano try to bunt his way on.

Soriano should be hitting second. Barrett you leave at 5, he'll come around and has shown how effective he can be at the five spot. However, he has had some big games batting in the second spot so thats also an option.

I'm not ready to give up on Jones yet (only 1 SO through 8 games/30 ABs), especially not for the likes of Theriot.

[GYBE]

I didn't mean to indicate I was giving up on Jones. I actually made a couple mistakes there as I was rushing to post it before work.

I wonder if Theriot or DeRosa could handle SS. Because I'd rather have both of them in the everyday lineup than Izturis. We'd lose some runs over the year on defense most likely, but the offensive gains might be worth it.

Theriot
Murton
Lee
Ramirez
Soriano
Barrett
Jones/Floyd
DeRosa
Pitcher

For the record, that's my preferred lineup at this time. But I realize some aren't sold on Theriot. If we had to keep Izturis, I'd probably go with this.

Murton
Soriano
Lee
Ramirez
Barett
Jones/Floyd
DeRosa
Izturis
Pitcher

Murton may not have the speed that managers typically look for, but he gets on more often than anyone outside of Lee and Ramirez. This would also put Soriano in the 2 hole like you were suggesting.

I really think we need to tinker with the lineup over the season, but I'd be happy with either of these.

[2poor]

Doesn't it seem a bit silly to you to start Theriot or DeRosa at SS when we're currently carrying 2 SS?

That said, Izturis needs a bit more time. Last year he was coming off an injury, wasn't a fan favorite because of who was involved in the trade (Maddux), and later got injured. All in all a rough stretch.

I'm really hoping he can return to anywhere close to his 2003-2005 form when his BA averaged out to be about .265 (.288 in 04). Solid as can be defensively, and offensively he gives you a switch hitter who doesn't strike out much (averages about 70 per year), and really can hit the ball. Not for power necessarily, but good solid contact in open spots.

Did you know that he was just 7 hits shy of 200 in 2004?

For fun, my preferred lineup:

Izturis
Soriano
Lee
Ramirez
Barrett
Jones
DeRosa
Floyd/Murton
<Pitcher>

[GYBE]

Career OBP

Izturis - .295
Cedeno - .282
Murton .369
Theriot .382
DeRosa .331

That's why I want those bottom three in the lineup and why I don't have any of our regular SS starting. The only possible reason for havign Izturis bat leadoff is because he has the speed some managers like in the leadoff, but that's a completely overrated quality in comparison to how often they give RBI chances. It's clear Murton and Theriot at the top give us a lot more chances to drive in runs.

[2poor]

The career OBP is somewhat deceiving, aside from DeRosa. Theriot has had all of 155 AB to build that number, Cedeno only 620, and Murton 610.

Not that I necessarily disagree with the idea, but Izturis has more ABs than almost all 4 of those guys combined (2462), definitely more than the 3 young guys anyways.

There is more to hitting leadoff than just being fast, absolutely. Izturis has shown in the past that he can offer more than that. He doesn't strike out often (~260 career in 2460 ABs), and given the chance can drive runs in. In the famed 2004 season that I keep referring to, he had a OBP of .330 while driving in 61 runs...all while hitting leadoff. This is an all-star caliber SS that we have, who was given up on LAD because of some injuries and because they went after Furcal, who was the biggest name in an FA class that wasn't exactly rich in talent.

[GYBE]

I know Theriot and Murton don't have many career at-bats, but I think it's worth it to give them the chances. We already know Izturis has a ceiling of "average" for a leadoff hitter (and I don't think he'll even get that), but Murton or Theriot could break out. They've already outperformed him in that one category up to this point, I think we should treat them like they're numbers suggest until they prove otherwise.

The Cubs had the lowest OBP in the majors last year and by a good margin. No surprise we were last in offense. You don't have to be Billy Beane to see the correlation. OBP has proven to be the stat that influnces the offensive performance of a team the best. And the organizations disregard for this is shocking. Really, we're the anti-Moneyball team in a lot of ways.

By the way, nice to get some good discussion on the board.

[2poor]

I guess I just can't see Theriot supplanting Izturis or Cedeno at SS, but from what I've seen of him at the plate, he's probably the most patient at the plate and is pretty good at making contact, so theoretically he'd make for a solid leadoff hitter.

Murton, likewise, has exercised good plate discipline at times, but when he's in a slump he swings at anything. Without sounding too much like a shrink, I think at this point in his career he lacks the mental fortitude to be hitting any higher than 6 in the lineup.

DeRosa I'd welcome to the leadoff spot as quickly as I would Izturis. It isn't so much that I'm sold on Izturis as I don't think we've really seen what we're going to get from him. When the Maddux deal went down I was actually pretty damn happy, because for once we were getting back a player who could contribute right now, as opposed to getting back some cash and a minor leaguer who we may never seen.

So now that you might better understand my position, I think we share the same general sentiment that Soriano shouldn't be batting leadoff. I know he's done it in the past with some success, and I don't doubt that he could have similar success here, but personally I think its a misuse of his talents. Hitting leadoff puts undue pressure on him to be something he's not, and I think they'd maximize his effectiveness if they moved him into a spot where pitchers were less inclined to throw crap pitches and where more RBI opportunities presented itself. Its no surprise that the bulk of our production comes from the top half of the lineup, but the problem here is that Soriano is either on base when this half of the lineup surfaces, or he's batting with 2 outs and *maybe* whoever was hitting 8 that day is on base.

So in that respect, if he's hitting behind Lee/Ramirez, but in front of Barrett so that he has some protection behind him, oh man. Let the HRs and RBIs fly, for all involved.

[GYBE]

I agree with most of that. I'd be happy with Soriano batting anywhere from 2-5. If his average play keeps up, Lou may make it happen soon.

[Posey H8er]

Theriot
Murton
Lee
Ramirez
Soriano
Barrett
Jones/Floyd
DeRosa
Pitcher

I like this lineup the best.

[Posey H8er]

I agree with most of that. I'd be happy with Soriano batting anywhere from 2-5. If his average play keeps up, Lou may make it happen soon.

Lou will actually make changes and will go after one of his players.