How To Approach the Draft
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2009 8:18 pm
Team Needs:
CB, OLB, DT, Safety, Depth on the OL, DE to help with the pass rush:
How I prioritize:
The Falcons lost a starter at DT, CB, S, and two starters at OLB (although they resigned 1 moderately skilled replacement OLB.) Although, the old “select the best player method” is great for recruiting stars, there are so many holes in the starting line up of the defense, that I would be more worried about leaving a gapping hole at any of those 4 positions, rather than taking a shot at a potential phenom in the first round. Compared to the other 3 positions, I’m less concerned about safety, since the Falcons cut their starter in that instance, and thus probably have a suitable back-up ready to start or a free agent options they feel good about. Thus I would restrict me first 3 selections to CB, DT, and OLB.
Next is establishing a feel for what position I would like to select first. Since I am more concerned with getting three potential starters in 3 rounds rather than trying to target the next Junior Seau in the first round, I look at the depth of each position in the draft. Using player ratings set by experts, there are 6 OLB’s, 6 CB’s, and 6 DT’s of significant value. There doesn’t appear to much help there as it amounts to a 3 way tie, but there are also 8 ILB’s of similar value. I feel that some of these ILB’s can play OLB, and that this is more effective than a safety playing CB or a DE playing DT. Thus I feel that, of my 3 big needs, OLB has the most depth in the draft, and I leave that pick for the third round.
Narrowing down the last of the top 2 needs, I look to see how quickly the DT’s and CB’s will be selected in the first two rounds, and they seem about even. Thus I’m left to go with my gut, and I feel that having a liability on the field at the CB position is a bigger liability than the DT position. If a DT misses a tackle, or fails to plug a whole, he has line-backers and/or a safety behind him. If a CB gets burned, the safety isn’t always there to help, and one mistake can result in a TD.
Thus, ideally I would hope to draft as follows:
1st pick (Round 1): CB
2nd pick (Round 2): DT
3rd pick (Round 3): OLB
4th pick (Round 4): S: In case the Falcon’s plan to fill the starter position doesn’t work out, it would be nice to have a decent safety from the middle round on the roster.
5th pick (Round 5): OL: Now that we have addressed positions with no starters, we can address the depth of the OL, which is critical in the NFL where QB concussions are common.
6th pick (Also Round 5): OLB: Since the 2 vacant OLB spots are filled by a moderately skilled free agent and a 3rd round pick, I’d like to go ahead and add some depth at the position.
7th pick (Round 6): OL or DE: Since we aren’t as lacking at DE as we are at other positions, I equate this need to a second backup OL. At this point, I look to see how many undrafted OL’s and DE’s are left. If there are a lot of one, I don’t select for that position as there will likely be undrafted players that I can work out and sign later. In all likelihood, there will be more OL’s left, and the DE’s will be mostly gone. I would very likely select the best DE left.
This is just a framework for how I would like the draft to go, and how I would attempt to steer it if I were the guy in charge. Of course other factors can alter this scheme a bit. If DT’s for instance, start going much more quickly than CB’s in the first round, I would consider selecting one instead of a CB, so long as the DT isn’t of significantly less talent than the remaining CB’s. In the end, the draft does require a lot of on-the-spot decisions, but this is just the master plan I would do my best to implement as the draft allows.
CB, OLB, DT, Safety, Depth on the OL, DE to help with the pass rush:
How I prioritize:
The Falcons lost a starter at DT, CB, S, and two starters at OLB (although they resigned 1 moderately skilled replacement OLB.) Although, the old “select the best player method” is great for recruiting stars, there are so many holes in the starting line up of the defense, that I would be more worried about leaving a gapping hole at any of those 4 positions, rather than taking a shot at a potential phenom in the first round. Compared to the other 3 positions, I’m less concerned about safety, since the Falcons cut their starter in that instance, and thus probably have a suitable back-up ready to start or a free agent options they feel good about. Thus I would restrict me first 3 selections to CB, DT, and OLB.
Next is establishing a feel for what position I would like to select first. Since I am more concerned with getting three potential starters in 3 rounds rather than trying to target the next Junior Seau in the first round, I look at the depth of each position in the draft. Using player ratings set by experts, there are 6 OLB’s, 6 CB’s, and 6 DT’s of significant value. There doesn’t appear to much help there as it amounts to a 3 way tie, but there are also 8 ILB’s of similar value. I feel that some of these ILB’s can play OLB, and that this is more effective than a safety playing CB or a DE playing DT. Thus I feel that, of my 3 big needs, OLB has the most depth in the draft, and I leave that pick for the third round.
Narrowing down the last of the top 2 needs, I look to see how quickly the DT’s and CB’s will be selected in the first two rounds, and they seem about even. Thus I’m left to go with my gut, and I feel that having a liability on the field at the CB position is a bigger liability than the DT position. If a DT misses a tackle, or fails to plug a whole, he has line-backers and/or a safety behind him. If a CB gets burned, the safety isn’t always there to help, and one mistake can result in a TD.
Thus, ideally I would hope to draft as follows:
1st pick (Round 1): CB
2nd pick (Round 2): DT
3rd pick (Round 3): OLB
4th pick (Round 4): S: In case the Falcon’s plan to fill the starter position doesn’t work out, it would be nice to have a decent safety from the middle round on the roster.
5th pick (Round 5): OL: Now that we have addressed positions with no starters, we can address the depth of the OL, which is critical in the NFL where QB concussions are common.
6th pick (Also Round 5): OLB: Since the 2 vacant OLB spots are filled by a moderately skilled free agent and a 3rd round pick, I’d like to go ahead and add some depth at the position.
7th pick (Round 6): OL or DE: Since we aren’t as lacking at DE as we are at other positions, I equate this need to a second backup OL. At this point, I look to see how many undrafted OL’s and DE’s are left. If there are a lot of one, I don’t select for that position as there will likely be undrafted players that I can work out and sign later. In all likelihood, there will be more OL’s left, and the DE’s will be mostly gone. I would very likely select the best DE left.
This is just a framework for how I would like the draft to go, and how I would attempt to steer it if I were the guy in charge. Of course other factors can alter this scheme a bit. If DT’s for instance, start going much more quickly than CB’s in the first round, I would consider selecting one instead of a CB, so long as the DT isn’t of significantly less talent than the remaining CB’s. In the end, the draft does require a lot of on-the-spot decisions, but this is just the master plan I would do my best to implement as the draft allows.