Warriors @ Rockets - Game 1

[EvanZ]

Podz does make the team rebounding numbers better.

team overall reb % with Pods on court: 51.8%
team overall reb % with Pods off court: 51.3%

I mean bro that's hardly a blip compared to his inflated rebounding stats.

[EvanZ]

He was the Warriors' leading rebounder in game 1. Playoffs matter and Houston is a bigger team. His rebounding definitely matters.

You're conflating his numbers with making the team numbers better. They don't really. It's diminishing returns. Basically he's stealing easy rebounds and it's mostly just a function of how they play. Conversely guys like Looney who box out on every possession tend to actually increase team rebounds while they are on the court, even if they are not getting rebounds themselves. Moody is a good example of this too. He doesn't get the rebound numbers but he does the work of boxing out that doesn't show up in the box score.

Using cleaning the glass numbers, in the podz minutes, we had an offensive rebound rate of 29.8 and gave up an offensive rebound rate of 26%. That was in the 70th and 83rd percentile, respectively.

With Podz off, our OReb rate went to 29.9 but the opponent OReb rate increased to 28%, dropping us to the 51st percentile. I am not a huge podz fan and do hope we move him at his peak value (likely to be this summer, if it wasn't last summer).

That said, he's a terrific rebounding guard and helped seal the Hou game with a key offensive rebound late in the game. I'm curious what numbers you're seeing that indicate he hurts the team's rebounding when he's on the floor.

Did I say he hurts the team rebounding? I dont' think I did, but let me correct the perception. I don't think he "hurts" team rebounding, I just don't think it's as helpful as most think it is. Him getting 10 rebounds, say, isn't actually adding 5-6 rebounds over what a typical guard might get. It's diminishing returns. He's just taking the rebounds that would be there for someone else typically.

[EvanZ]

He was the Warriors' leading rebounder in game 1. Playoffs matter and Houston is a bigger team. His rebounding definitely matters.

You're conflating his numbers with making the team numbers better. They don't really. It's diminishing returns. Basically he's stealing easy rebounds and it's mostly just a function of how they play. Conversely guys like Looney who box out on every possession tend to actually increase team rebounds while they are on the court, even if they are not getting rebounds themselves. Moody is a good example of this too. He doesn't get the rebound numbers but he does the work of boxing out that doesn't show up in the box score.

Your first argument was that he won't rebound "when it matters and against bigger teams." Then you moved the goalposts, not just 10 yards away but to a completely different field.

Rebounding is sometimes about boxing out your guy so that someone else can secure the rebound, but more often, it's about anticipation and effort. At 8:15 in the video below is a good example. It's the play with 3:50 left, Warriors up 7, Moody misses the three. Podz runs all the way from the three-point line to the opposite block as the shot is in the air, anticipating a potential rebound. He misses the tip, but that allows Draymond to put in the follow.

Watch on YouTube

Great anticipation and effort on the play by Podz that resulted in a huge play for the Dubs.

When a shot goes up, most players watch the ball or solidify their position where they are around the basket. Look at the Rockets -- none of them move or do anything to improve their rebounding position because they rely on their length and leaping ability to get rebounds. Very few players move like Podz did on this play while the ball is in the air to gain rebounding position. It's an effort play that most times doesn't result in getting the rebound but can pay off often enough to make a difference. Great effort.

Look at Jimmy in the corner. Now, I'm not trying to say he's a low-effort guy because he's clearly not, but he stands and watches. And you don't want all five guys crashing the boards like Podz did; Jimmy is in great position if someone secures the rebound and is looking to kick it out. You don't want Moody crashing the boards because his primary assignment is to get back on D in case the Rockets get the rebound, just like Podz shouldn't crash if he were the one shooting from up top. But rebounding is crucial for this series, and the coaches have clearly made rebounding in these situations an assignment for Podz, and it works because he's good at it. Effort plays make the difference.

I'll stand behind what I said. I don't think his rebounding makes much of a difference. He steals rebounds that inflate his numbers. David Lee was guilty of this as well.

A truly great rebounder, you'll see the impact in the team rebounding with him on and off and against great competition. Podz just isn't that guy imo. Jason Kidd was a great guard rebounder. From what I remember his on/off rebounding stats were legit.

[Outside]

You're conflating his numbers with making the team numbers better. They don't really. It's diminishing returns. Basically he's stealing easy rebounds and it's mostly just a function of how they play. Conversely guys like Looney who box out on every possession tend to actually increase team rebounds while they are on the court, even if they are not getting rebounds themselves. Moody is a good example of this too. He doesn't get the rebound numbers but he does the work of boxing out that doesn't show up in the box score.

Your first argument was that he won't rebound "when it matters and against bigger teams." Then you moved the goalposts, not just 10 yards away but to a completely different field.

Rebounding is sometimes about boxing out your guy so that someone else can secure the rebound, but more often, it's about anticipation and effort. At 8:15 in the video below is a good example. It's the play with 3:50 left, Warriors up 7, Moody misses the three. Podz runs all the way from the three-point line to the opposite block as the shot is in the air, anticipating a potential rebound. He misses the tip, but that allows Draymond to put in the follow.

Watch on YouTube

Great anticipation and effort on the play by Podz that resulted in a huge play for the Dubs.

When a shot goes up, most players watch the ball or solidify their position where they are around the basket. Look at the Rockets -- none of them move or do anything to improve their rebounding position because they rely on their length and leaping ability to get rebounds. Very few players move like Podz did on this play while the ball is in the air to gain rebounding position. It's an effort play that most times doesn't result in getting the rebound but can pay off often enough to make a difference. Great effort.

Look at Jimmy in the corner. Now, I'm not trying to say he's a low-effort guy because he's clearly not, but he stands and watches. And you don't want all five guys crashing the boards like Podz did; Jimmy is in great position if someone secures the rebound and is looking to kick it out. You don't want Moody crashing the boards because his primary assignment is to get back on D in case the Rockets get the rebound, just like Podz shouldn't crash if he were the one shooting from up top. But rebounding is crucial for this series, and the coaches have clearly made rebounding in these situations an assignment for Podz, and it works because he's good at it. Effort plays make the difference.

I'll stand behind what I said. I don't think his rebounding makes much of a difference. He steals rebounds that inflate his numbers. David Lee was guilty of this as well.

A truly great rebounder, you'll see the impact in the team rebounding with him on and off and against great competition. Podz just isn't that guy imo. Jason Kidd was a great guard rebounder. From what I remember his on/off rebounding stats were legit.

Who the hell said he was a truly great rebounder? He's a good rebounder for a guard. You tried to say he's a bad rebounder whose numbers will fall apart when he faces tall teams in important games. Then it's that he steals rebounds from teammates. Now it's that he doesn't stack up against first ballot Hall of Famers.

We'll see how the series goes.

[floppymoose]

Podz does make the team rebounding numbers better.

team overall reb % with Pods on court: 51.8%
team overall reb % with Pods off court: 51.3%

I mean bro that's hardly a blip compared to his inflated rebounding stats.

Of the players on the team who have played 20% or more of the minutes, it is the second most, after Looney. It’s not a blip. Podz is an excellent team rebounder. He’s not a fake rebounder like David Lee or Troy Murphy were.

[EvanZ]

Your first argument was that he won't rebound "when it matters and against bigger teams." Then you moved the goalposts, not just 10 yards away but to a completely different field.

Rebounding is sometimes about boxing out your guy so that someone else can secure the rebound, but more often, it's about anticipation and effort. At 8:15 in the video below is a good example. It's the play with 3:50 left, Warriors up 7, Moody misses the three. Podz runs all the way from the three-point line to the opposite block as the shot is in the air, anticipating a potential rebound. He misses the tip, but that allows Draymond to put in the follow.

Watch on YouTube

Great anticipation and effort on the play by Podz that resulted in a huge play for the Dubs.

When a shot goes up, most players watch the ball or solidify their position where they are around the basket. Look at the Rockets -- none of them move or do anything to improve their rebounding position because they rely on their length and leaping ability to get rebounds. Very few players move like Podz did on this play while the ball is in the air to gain rebounding position. It's an effort play that most times doesn't result in getting the rebound but can pay off often enough to make a difference. Great effort.

Look at Jimmy in the corner. Now, I'm not trying to say he's a low-effort guy because he's clearly not, but he stands and watches. And you don't want all five guys crashing the boards like Podz did; Jimmy is in great position if someone secures the rebound and is looking to kick it out. You don't want Moody crashing the boards because his primary assignment is to get back on D in case the Rockets get the rebound, just like Podz shouldn't crash if he were the one shooting from up top. But rebounding is crucial for this series, and the coaches have clearly made rebounding in these situations an assignment for Podz, and it works because he's good at it. Effort plays make the difference.

I'll stand behind what I said. I don't think his rebounding makes much of a difference. He steals rebounds that inflate his numbers. David Lee was guilty of this as well.

A truly great rebounder, you'll see the impact in the team rebounding with him on and off and against great competition. Podz just isn't that guy imo. Jason Kidd was a great guard rebounder. From what I remember his on/off rebounding stats were legit.

Who the hell said he was a truly great rebounder? He's a good rebounder for a guard. You tried to say he's a bad rebounder whose numbers will fall apart when he faces tall teams in important games. Then it's that he steals rebounds from teammates. Now it's that he doesn't stack up against first ballot Hall of Famers.

We'll see how the series goes.

No, I didn't try to say that. Try reading what I actually said.

"I don't think his rebounding makes much of a difference. He steals rebounds that inflate his numbers. David Lee was guilty of this as well."

[Twinkie defense]

You're conflating his numbers with making the team numbers better. They don't really. It's diminishing returns. Basically he's stealing easy rebounds and it's mostly just a function of how they play. Conversely guys like Looney who box out on every possession tend to actually increase team rebounds while they are on the court, even if they are not getting rebounds themselves. Moody is a good example of this too. He doesn't get the rebound numbers but he does the work of boxing out that doesn't show up in the box score.

If you're boxing out and allowing your teammate to grab the rebound, that will show up in the +/- and on/off stats.

Podz in particular was a game-high +17 vs. Houston and is regularly among the Warriors +/- leaders. Maybe he's not making the "team's numbers better" but he's making the team better.

Podz BTW said Houston's best offensive play is to throw it up there so you can get a put-back lol.

[Twinkie defense]

Podz does make the team rebounding numbers better.

team overall reb % with Pods on court: 51.8%
team overall reb % with Pods off court: 51.3%

I mean bro that's hardly a blip compared to his inflated rebounding stats.

That equates to about 2.5 additional possessions per game over 48 minutes, which translates to about 3 points. How many games are decided by 3 points or less? Could equate to a couple extra wins over the course of a season.

(50 rebounds x .05 rebound rate differential = 2.5 additional possessions x 1.15 points per possession = 2.875 points per game)

[EvanZ]

Podz does make the team rebounding numbers better.

team overall reb % with Pods on court: 51.8%
team overall reb % with Pods off court: 51.3%

I mean bro that's hardly a blip compared to his inflated rebounding stats.

That equates to about 2.5 additional possessions per game over 48 minutes, which translates to about 3 points. How many games are decided by 3 points or less? Could equate to a couple extra wins over the course of a season.

(50 rebounds x .05 rebound rate differential = 2.5 additional possessions x 1.15 points per possession = 2.875 points per game)

It's 0.5 PERCENT difference which is 0.005 * 50 rebounds. It ends up equating to about 0.4 points per game. Here's the math from ChatGPT:

Code: Select all

1. Estimate the number of rebounds in a game:
   •   A typical NBA game has around 90-100 rebound opportunities per team (including offensive and defensive boards).
   •   Let’s use 100 rebound opportunities for simplicity.

2. 0.5% of 100 rebounds =
→ 0.5 additional rebounds per game when Pods is on the court.

3. Estimate points per rebound:
   •   Not all rebounds are created equal, but a commonly used rough estimate is:
   •   Offensive rebound → ~1.1 to 1.3 points
   •   Defensive rebound → ~0.3 to 0.5 points (prevents opponent from scoring)

A safe average is about 0.7–0.8 points per rebound overall.

4. So the points difference per game =
0.5 \text{ extra rebounds} \times 0.75 \text{ points per rebound} = \boxed{0.375 \text{ points per game}}

[EvanZ]

I used to write on this stuff all the time. Here's an old ass article I wrote on the Four Factors that explains each %-point difference in ORB% is about 0.3 additional wins per season. So Podz is generating about 0.15 extra wins due to his rebounding:

https://thecity2.wordpress.com/2010/12/21/regressing-point-differential-on-the-four-factors-part-2/

Rebounding is extremely overrated relative to scoring, defense and offensive/defensive turnovers.

[EvanZ]

If you really want to go deep on diminishing returns and point guards stealing rebounds this is an oldie but goodie!

http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2011/01/do-players-steal-rebounding.html

As I said, every position had a negative correlation with the other positions on the team. Here they are. (UPDATE, 1/23: I realized I accidentally left out one team, and entered one team twice. Corrections have been made below.)

-- PG: every extra rebound reduces his teammates' rebounds by 0.96 0.87.
-- SG: every extra rebound reduces his teammates' rebounds by 0.65 0.64.
-- SF: every extra rebound reduces his teammates' rebounds by 0.73 0.73.
-- PF: every extra rebound reduces his teammates' rebounds by 0.63 0.68.
--- C: every extra rebound reduces his teammates' rebounds by 0.65 0.69.

[vvoland]

If you really want to go deep on diminishing returns and point guards stealing rebounds this is an oldie but goodie!

http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2011/01/do-players-steal-rebounding.html

As I said, every position had a negative correlation with the other positions on the team. Here they are. (UPDATE, 1/23: I realized I accidentally left out one team, and entered one team twice. Corrections have been made below.)

-- PG: every extra rebound reduces his teammates' rebounds by 0.96 0.87.
-- SG: every extra rebound reduces his teammates' rebounds by 0.65 0.64.
-- SF: every extra rebound reduces his teammates' rebounds by 0.73 0.73.
-- PF: every extra rebound reduces his teammates' rebounds by 0.63 0.68.
--- C: every extra rebound reduces his teammates' rebounds by 0.65 0.69.

That's pretty interesting work. From the comment section, I see you properly call out the difference in the offensive and defensive rebounds; I think that's a differentiating factor.

Similarly, I think there's a difference between getting "free" rebounds and beating the opponent to the loose ball, or even to the boxed out rebound. Some players are quick to react, track the ball early, have good hands and timing, and/or can high point the ball. I understand that conversation was before the tracking data became relevant and I wonder how some of those variables can be isolated these days.

There's probably a real difference between rebounds near the rim, fast breaks, and other situations when the offense may not send multiple rebounders versus possessions when they do so as part of the game plan, time/score, and shot type (free throws, off the help man, etc).

Again, those are very interesting numbers and I like your breakdown of offense vs defense. That said, I think podz is a terrific rebounder precisely because he passes the eye test when it comes to the stuff above (tracking, hands, timing etc.). On top of that, he also gets offensive boards and id imagine his tracking data would indicate he's a terrific rebounder.

David Lee and Russ both got "cheap" boards. Does that make them bad rebounders? In the case of David Lee, maybe, I'd have to take a deep dive I'd rather not. In the case of Russ, absolutely not. He's one of the best rebounding guards I've ever seen.

[EvanZ]

It’s really not about calling anyone bad rebounders. The real point is that rebounding has always been overrated by fans.

[Jax_23]

Read on Twitter

Dirty ass play. F that bum. Need Dub fans to boo him when they play here. Whether he was tripped or not, he pushes up at the last second (0:39 mark) when Butler was airborne and vulnerable. Should've been a flagrant 2.

[vvoland]

It’s really not about calling anyone bad rebounders. The real point is that rebounding has always been overrated by fans.

I agree but I think I'm saying the opposite: really good rebounders can make a difference and, despite his other flaws, or perhaps because of them, podz is an excellent one.

[Crazy-Canuck]

It’s really not about calling anyone bad rebounders. The real point is that rebounding has always been overrated by fans.

I agree but I think I'm saying the opposite: really good rebounders can make a difference and, despite his other flaws, or perhaps because of them, podz is an excellent one.

For players, I like contested rebound rate and team rebounding rate on vs off to get an idea of a players impact on the boards.

Podz didnt impact those stats as much a you would think for a guy that gets alot of rebounds. Whether he is on the floor or not, our defensive rebound rate is the same.