Blow it up, sell the farm, or stay the course?

[floppymoose]

So where are the excuses for Baron's and Stephen's numbers?

[Hopper15]

If you look at the numbers for the last six weeks, that would pretty much speak for itself. They ran out of gas.

[FNQ]

So where are the excuses for Baron's and Stephen's numbers?

Really flop?

They're inverted... mostly because Baron and Jax were usually in the game unless the game was out of reach, or we were closing out a Q... those individual #s dont come close to standing by themselves, in context...

[floppymoose]

^^^ bogus.

[FNQ]

^^^ bogus.

http://www.82games.com/0708/0708GSW.HTM

Check Al, Biedrins, Tay... hell, even Pietrus and Buke... see how many minutes they logged w/o each player... see how often Jax or Baron was off the court with them.

Now check CJ Watson, Austin Croshere, Matt Barnes...
the CJ/Wright combo got 50 minutes together...

Another thing that was looked over in the Wright eFGA... dclose%... those teams shot an EFG of .611 against Baron/Tay/Jax/Wright/Beans... 26% close... our main lineup? 34%..

Almost every single Close:DClose ratio with Wright on the court is astounding... just close your eyes during the garbage time rotations where Wright was completely frozen out.

http://www.82games.com/0708/07GSW10B.HTM

[Twinkie defense]

All I can say about Belli and Brandan "will be given a shot next year".... that is what people said about POB. We fans will be happy if Mully just picks up their options.

I never said that about POB.

Mullin and Nellie have said they like Belinelli and Brandan... even some good words about Kosta.

Three rookies on a team

[FNQ]

Fundamentals? Smarts? Kosta?



Dude is terrible... no positioning... none. He's just about as fundamental as POB, but he's smarter in one aspect - he knows that shutting his yap when Nellie speaks... whatever POB did, Kosta's smarter for not doing it.

Criminal that we let go of POB for that clown... he'd even make a lousy Thunder... Kosta should be on roller skates delivering pizzas during timeouts... I wouldn't even trust him with the T-Shirt cannon... I could probably load and fire an 18th century musket before the guy could squeeze the trigger.

[Twinkie defense]

Well you made a very early call on Kosta, 510, so I would naturally expect you to not back down from that, no matter what Kosta does on the court.

[FNQ]

Well you made a very early call on Kosta, 510, so I would naturally expect you to not back down from that, no matter what Kosta does on the court.

I made an early call on Baron... pretty much 100% opposite of what I'm saying now. Same with Jax... who I hated, loved, then hated this year, but in retrospect, do love... if your basketball memory lasts more than 6 months (w/o thinking about injuries) then you're clouding your own judgement...

Kosta is the easiest call on the W's... I and others who saw him in KK (albeit unwillingly) know that this is exactly what you get... there will never be a lack of effort on his part, but that doesnt make him a good player... or a servicable one. Or a mistake even at his low salary.

I just dont think buzzwords should be thrown around because he hustles... he should stick on an NBA roster because of that. That doesnt mean he should ever have a multi year, or ever be any kind of rotational player.

[floppymoose]

http://www.82games.com/0708/0708GSW.HTM

Check Al, Biedrins, Tay... hell, even Pietrus and Buke... see how many minutes they logged w/o each player... see how often Jax or Baron was off the court with them.

Now check CJ Watson, Austin Croshere, Matt Barnes...
the CJ/Wright combo got 50 minutes together...

Another thing that was looked over in the Wright eFGA... dclose%... those teams shot an EFG of .611 against Baron/Tay/Jax/Wright/Beans... 26% close... our main lineup? 34%..

Almost every single Close:DClose ratio with Wright on the court is astounding... just close your eyes during the garbage time rotations where Wright was completely frozen out.

http://www.82games.com/0708/07GSW10B.HTM

Thanks for making your reply more specific.

First off, I'm not trying to make any kind of case against Wright except that he is young and still learning how to fit in offensively. I totally agree with you about his defensive impact and have been calling for Nellie to have him on court when Biedrins is off - at a minimum.

But I think you are in the forest and missing the trees on Davis and Jackson. They juiced our efg% this year. They juiced it last year. Stephen had a positive split last year there on the Pacers too. Davis juiced the O every year he was a Warrior and every year he was a Hornet, despite never being a good shooter.

So don't give this "he's not sharing the floor with CJ" stuff. It doesn't stand up. The reason he's not sharing the court with those guys is because he's better than those guys - and it's not because he's a better shooter - he isn't. It's because he is better at juicing the offense, which is exactly the point I'm trying to show.

[FNQ]

I didnt figure it was against Wright... and I didnt even know any of the stuff pre-looking it up on 82games... was a complete guess

They do have a sterling record of past eFGa/eFG... but its odd just because their individual matchups are both clearly in the favor of the opposing player...

Its hard to decipher though... apparently when Jax/Buke were in at the same time, Jax was always PF according to them... when I asked earlier in the year how they determined oPER, they didn't respond...

Personally I'd love to see their eFG ratings - the clutch rating that 82games gives.... every time I look up their info, it paints the picture of a roller coaster, up and down, emotional playing pair... Jax more so, and Jax also being the better of the two...

I think it has more to do w/our style than anything though... Jax's run in IND was a one year thing, and who was coming on to the court to relieve him? That knucklehead Marquis? At least in Jax's case...

Baron IMO will always be in the + because of his passing abilities... our offense has inflated it due to our love for the 3ball, which slightly skews eFG... but it also calls out the fact that when he's off the court, it usually means Tay's running things, and he sure can't create like Baron, and he won't do much to improve on the eFG from a 3pt standpoint...

I dunno. I feel like there's a conclusion to be drawn there... its just too late for me to figure out what it is.... why don't 8 month olds like sleep as much as we do?

[floppymoose]

My theory is simply that the two set up their teammates so well, that they raise the efg of the team more that way than they hurt it with their own shooting. Both do it with passing, and Baron especially also does it with all the steals which lead to easy buckets for his teammates.

[floppymoose]

The ironic part is that both can be big chuckers who don't share the ball. But it seems they have shared it enough, in the past to help overall.

[WarFan]

I want to see them stay the course, but the biggest issue is that they don't half-ass it again this year. That means that they're going to have to go over the luxury tax for at least one year, otherwise I just don't see how they can keep the core together next year and add enough depth to get back to the playoffs with some kind of chance of advancing. They need to use the TE on draft day, as well as sign a rotation player (or two) with the MLE. It sounds to me like both Mullin and Nellie expect Wright, Belinelli and possibly Perovic to be part of the rotation next year, so that means a wing and another big are needed to get to a solid 9-man rotation.

I'd like to see a trade down on draft day, as I don't see a ton of difference between most of the guys projected after about 10 and into the late 1st round.

GS sends: pick 14 and the TE
Sea sends: Chris Wilcox, pick 24 (or 25) and pick 32

I'd be targeting Ajinca, Ibaka, Thabeet, Rush, Smith, CDR, Chalmers and Hendrix with the picks. I'd hope for Ajinca, Smith and Hendrix. I also wouldn't expect any of them to contribute immediately (basically 13th-15th roster spots and shuttling to the D-League the first couple months).

That leaves the MLE for a versatile wing man. The only guy who I would spend the whole MLE on would be Josh Childress but I'm guessing that Atlanta would match that offer. Ryan Gomes, Quinton Ross and Trevor Ariza are other possibilities I like. The last spot or two could be filled by Watson, Azubuike, Croshere or some other vets minimum signings.

So the 9-man rotation would look something like this (with Wright eventually starting sometime during the season):
Davis/Ellis
Ellis/Bellinelli
Jackson/Childress
Harrington/Wright
Biedrins/Wilcox

[darobster17]

I just dunno about giving our only first round pick for a player like Wilcox. I'd deal Harrington for Wilcox and Adrian Griffin. Griffin could be cut.

We then could use the MLE for Gomes.

Can we use the TPE to land a first round pick and player with expiring contract?

I also think that Mully will try to lure Dorrell Wright from Miami since I think Mully is infatuated with Wright.

[marthafokker]

We should use our MLE for Gomes (hope Minny would not match) since they have Jefferson and Probably Brook Lopez in the front line.

Gomes is perfect for our run and gun starting PF that can punish people inside.

[WarFan]

I just dunno about giving our only first round pick for a player like Wilcox. I'd deal Harrington for Wilcox and Adrian Griffin. Griffin could be cut.

The deal I proposed would have picks 24 and 32 coming back with Wilcox. I posted this on the Seattle board and they like it, as they'd like to move up in the draft.

I also think that Mully will try to lure Dorrell Wright from Miami since I think Mully is infatuated with Wright.

I would of agreed with you before Wright had knee surgery a couple months ago. Now I think it's too much of a risk to offer him a contract big enough that Miami wouldn't match.