Offseason Plan 1.0

[turk3d]

I think pointman may need to go back to GM school for a while.

[pointman]

You spent alot of dough and didn't make us better. We would still be the 9th best team in West.

Most of the dough goes towards resigning Ellis and Biedrins. But it sounds like many think they will get about $1m to $2m more than what I have down which doesn't invalidate the basic plan, it just illustrates how tight money will be with higher numbers. A total of only $13.4m is spent on 6 other players and it looks like we'll be pretty close to the luxury tax with revised contract numbers for Ellis and Biedrins.

Once again, this is a minimal approach to improving a team that could have made the playoffs had rotations been more flexible (spot development minutes for bench) and Barnes and Pietrius had played well without distractions. We were a good team that got gassed at the end, on pace to win +53 games around the All-Star Break. We have talented young guys in Wright and Belinelli that will be a bigger part of the rotation next year. IMO, this team doesn't need a major overhaul to make it back into the playoffs - just some retooling. Holes have been addressed (backup PG, physical inside presence, swingman depth) and like I mentioned in my last paragaph of the original post, options involving possible trades and use of the T.E. and M.L.E. are going to be explored.

If you look at the proposed contract lengths, the Warriors can be +$20m under the cap in Summer 2010 so this plan does not mortgage the future but rather makes a 2 year run at the playoffs while Baron/Jax/Harrington/Nellie are together with the emerging talent on our squad. If it doesn't pan out, we have cap flexibility to immediately go in another direction.

[Warriorfan]

Here are some of the problems in the plan you set out.
1) The only real improvement on the teams comes from signing Duhon which dampens the Monta PG development plan.

2) The team goes into luxury tax Cohan pays over 4 million in tax, doesn't get a share of the pool so in essence Pietrus and Duhon cost double.

3) You did not use the Warrior exemption to get expiring contacts who don't count against the luxury.

4) You make the Warriors younger when they should be adding veterans and players like with better Basketball IQ's than Pietrus.

5) Biedrens and Monta will get whatever the market bears which might be even less than what you stated because few teams have cap room.

[giberish]

3) You did not use the Warrior exemption to get expiring contacts who don't count against the luxury.

??????

Contracts that expire in the 08 offseason can't be traded anymore.
Contracts that expire in the 09 offseason count against the luxury tax.

[pointman]

Here are some of the problems in the plan you set out.
1) The only real improvement on the teams comes from signing Duhon which dampens the Monta PG development plan.

2) The team goes into luxury tax Cohan pays over 4 million in tax, doesn't get a share of the pool so in essence Pietrus and Duhon cost double.

3) You did not use the Warrior exemption to get expiring contacts who don't count against the luxury.

4) You make the Warriors younger when they should be adding veterans and players like with better Basketball IQ's than Pietrus.

5) Biedrens and Monta will get whatever the market bears which might be even less than what you stated because few teams have cap room.

1) Nelson doesn't trust Monta to run the point and I suspect he won't hand over the reigns until he's out of town. To insure we see the Baron of old from start to finish, we need a PG that Nelson can trust. Duhon is an underated and relatively cheap, available option. I also like Dooling and Arroyo as UFA's. Duhon isn't here to take us to the next level, he's here to allow Baron to remain fresher.

2) Yes, you are correct. I overestimated the luxury tax threshold. Thank you for pointing that out. Last year's level was set at $67.9m, prior to that it was $65m, so an approximate level for 2008 would be just below $70m. That puts them roughly $1m over the luxury tax. Good to know.

3) The purposes of this Plan was to establish a MINIMUM plan of action and not to speculate and assume we could get a trade done with another team. That will be explored later. Offseason Plan 1.0 is just a starting point.

4) I don't think bringing back Croshere, Webber, and Hudson are good ideas. Duhon adds veteran help at PG (age 25), but looking over the comments, instead of Watson, we should bring in a veteran PF/C (Elson?). Without dumping Al or other salary, that addition would surely put us over the Luxury Tax.

5) I agree. I think I'm pretty close, but many here have them getting a bit more.

Thanks All for the comments!

[Carl_Monday]

pointman,

I think you're severely over-estimating how much the Dubs will be speding this summer, and under-estimating how much case Beans and Tay will get in their 1st year. With the 6 guys under contract, Foyle's cap hold, and the two draft picks, the total salary will be at about $49 million. The number that's been thrown about for how much Monta and Dre will cost in their 1st year is $17 million, which is a pretty reasonable number to use at this point. So that brings up the grand total to about $66 million. As you stated, a good estimation for the lux tax threshold next year is $70 million. There's been plenty of indications that the lux tax is a de facto hard cap for this club, so I'd say that it's a pretty safe bet next year too. That leave only $4 million to fill out the last 3rd of our roster.

Now go back to the drawing board with these assumptions, and try to put some lipstick on this pig.

[-bob-]

our bench needs to be re-done not re-signed. hopefully Offseason Plan 2.0 doesn't involve re-signing their sucky asses.

[Sleepy51]

our bench needs to be re-done not re-signed. hopefully Offseason Plan 2.0 doesn't involve re-signing their sucky asses.

We can keep at most two of the various unrestricted guys.

Bukie
Pete
Barnes
Cro
CJ

Pick your poison, but no more than two of them should return.

5 starters (Baron Jack Tay Dre Al - if he's here)
2 of those unrestricted guys (I say Bukie and Barnes but probably it will be Bukie & CJ)
3 sophmores (Brandan, Beli, Kosta)
2 draft picks.

Assume the picks won't play for Nellie much this year, that means 3 spots left to be filled. I would like two of those spots to be filled with established NBA rotation talent, more likely we'll only get one, and two more D leauge callups or walkons.

Expect to see Burke in camp again.

[giberish]

If GS operates under the mostly stay the course while avoiding the luxury tax plan, they won't have a 15 man roster next year. The Warriors will have a 13 man roster, with perhaps intermittent extras on 10-day contracts if GS has the money under the tax.

Figure 5 starters, 3 2nd year players and a 1st round pick for 9 spots. The other 4 spots will go to 1-3 players on $1.5M-$3M FA contracts and 1-3 players on minimum salary deals (possibly including the 2nd round pick)

[pointman]

Carl_Monday,

I think you're severely over-estimating how much the Dubs will be speding this summer

I don't think so. It's just $1.4m over the luxury tax - not too 'severe'. Salaries and targeted FA's could easily be adjusted. Nelson's on his last year, Baron's possibly on his last year of his contract, and Jax/Harrington will soon be gone (hopefully we trade Al this offseason). The window of opportunity is closing and I believe they will come close to the Luxury Tax, perhaps even exceed it if there is a very good vet PF they can acquire. If Cohan is dead-set on staying below the Luxury Tax, they might go to a 14-man roster as one poster suggested they might do.

under-estimating how much case Beans and Tay will get in their 1st year. The number that's been thrown about for how much Monta and Dre will cost in their 1st year is $17 million, which is a pretty reasonable number to use at this point.

It could go up or down as some posters project. I highly doubt it goes to $17m combined. If it does, they need to think about doing a S&T instead. That is way too much to spend. Contracts are going down throughout the league in general and Mullin has proven to be a tough SOB when it comes to contracts NOW. We could have easily overpaid for Barnes and Pietrus, but he has learned his lesson and won't pay more than he has to.

[pointman]

our bench needs to be re-done not re-signed. hopefully Offseason Plan 2.0 doesn't involve re-signing their sucky asses.

Many would agree that Azu needs to come back. $2.5m seems reasonable. Perhaps we can go to $2m.

I think Pietrus would be a steal at only $3.5m (he makes $3.4m and there are many lesser players around the league that get twice that amount. I'm banking that contract security and a fixed role on the club will allow him to get into his comfort zone just as he did after the Trade Deadline had passed and he didn't have that whole trade issue hanging over his head. We need wing depth and Pietrus' rebounding, defense, and athleticism fit our needs as good as anyone else at that price range. I'd love to hear other inexpensive options you can suggest.

Bringing Watson back is minor. $1m too much? He's proven to be a pretty multi-skilled player that won't hurt you if he is thrown out there on the court to relieve the starters. He has the highest +/- of all the bench players this season. If we get a solid backup like Duhon, Arroyo, or Dooling, maybe he could be left off the roster, but I think we should keep him if injuries hit the backcourt. Nelson didn't trust Monta enough to let him fill in for Baron, so I'm not sure Monta will get a chance next year - perhaps when Nelson is gone.

[turk3d]

I still say it doesn't make any sense for us to keep Pietrus if Jack stays. We'd be better off monetarily if we don't resign him. The only value he has for us at this point is if we could somehow S & T him as part of a package deal in order to make salary maybe alongside Al who we should trade (if we can get something of equal value in return).

Until Monta and Biedrens are resigned, whether or not Baron opts in and find out what trades will be made, all the rest is total speculation. After we do our resignings, and make whatever deals we we are going to make, only then will we know how much is left in the kitty and who's still on the roster and then we can figure out how much is left and who ois available.
Almost next to impossible to do so right now. I think the key thing is what deals (if any) get made. Only then (after we determine who's gone) will be able to figure out the way the rest of our roster is going to be filled.

[pointman]

Until Monta and Biedrens are resigned, whether or not Baron opts in and find out what trades will be made, all the rest is total speculation. After we do our resignings, and make whatever deals we we are going to make, only then will we know how much is left in the kitty and who's still on the roster and then we can figure out how much is left and who is available.
Almost next to impossible to do so right now. I think the key thing is what deals (if any) get made. Only then (after we determine who's gone) will be able to figure out the way the rest of our roster is going to be filled.

50% of the talk on RealGM is total speculation. What we do know is that Baron would be crazy to opt out of his +$17m deal. He's either going to play out his last year or hopefully get extended for far less. People's memories are short and seem to forget that he was playing at an All-Star level until the last 3rd of the season where he became more inconsistent. He's worth keeping around because without him, we'd be a 40 win team. Baron is the glue that holds the team together.

With the more prudent contracts stemming from the Luxury Tax restriction, I'd be surprised if Baron could get a deal better than 4yr/$46m ($13m, $12m, $11m, $10m). He'll be 32 years old by his 4th year. I'd like to offer him a 2yr/$31m ($16m, $15m) with a 3rd yr $14m team option. If he doesn't like it, just let him walk next year. The reasoning behind it is to keep the the trio of Davis/Ellis/Jackson together until Jackson's contract is up. That's our window of opportunity. If Mullin plays his cards right, by 2010, we will have enough cap space to sign a Max deal if we want.

As for Ellis and Biedrins, we can speculate that we would spend anywhere from $13m to $17m on them and go from there. In order for the Warriors to get considerably better while staying under the Luxury Tax, they need to trade Harrington's large contract. If they can't find a way to trade Harrington, I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up with a roster similar to the one I laid out. It's a little disapointing, but if Cohan isn't willing to spend the big bucks, it's more reality than speculation.

[turk3d]

As you've put it together (and as was indicated by at least one other poster), the chances would be really great that we won't make the playoffs (and likely would get less wins) next season which would be unaceptable to both Nellie and (more importantly the FO brass) since in your scheme we would be going into lux tax (albeit not a great amount). There is absolutely no point in going into luxland if we likely won't make the playoffs. The team you has assemble is going to be no better than the one we had this year but the killer is that many of the teams we were ahead of this year will have significantly improved.

We are going to have to have substantial improvement, which will likely require going into luxury, significantly more than you have outlined. If we can keep Baron (and his existing contract) and maybe pick up someone like Marion (for Al +) and more importantly, get a good deal with Monta and Andris (if they can defer some of their windfall for at least a year or 2 (when our cap situation will improve dramatically), then one year of lux (if it puts us in a position to do some serious damage and guarantees a playoff spot) is probably the best we can hope for, especially if we can do it without losing our "young guns".

[pointman]

If Nelson would put some trust into Monta to be Baron's primary backup (that's a big 'if'), Mullin would have more money to use to beef up other areas of need. Mullin needs to get a commitment from Nelson to trust in Baron's backups so that we don't have the same problem of overworked stars next season.

Someone like Ryan Gomes could get the money instead. Resign Watson as a cheap 3rd PG or spend a bit more for Dooling. I really don't want to combine our draft picks with the T.E. to bring someone in if we can help it. This year's pick could be very good. I'd rather combine the T.E. w/ Harrington to see what we could get. And in any deal, I hope we don't get stuck with a player with a long contract so we could stay flexible in the future.

[turk3d]

How about a "bit less" for Dooling? He won't command much on the FA market imo. We may be able to get him for 2-3 Mil for one year. It's more of a question of whether or not we'd want him.

Dooling > CJ for sure.

[MightyReds2020]

i just have a question: why it seems like many ppl here want Chris freaking Duhon? i bet he can't even get off the bench if he plays for nellie. he can't shoot and he's not even that much better at running a team compared to CJ watson.

[FNQ]

i just have a question: why it seems like many ppl here want Chris freaking Duhon? i bet he can't even get off the bench if he plays for nellie. he can't shoot and he's not even that much better at running a team compared to CJ watson.

He's got vision... that's his one asset... not a bad defender either.... think a young Eric Snow? He's a guy I'd like to have as a backup PG... 10 mpg and you won't feel bad about completely freezing him for some games if your 3rd string guy is hot.