Is it time to pay the tax?

[WarFan]

I come up against this issue a lot anytime I try to think of ways to improve the team next year and I wanted to get everyone's opinion on the matter.

IMO the only way that this team will improve enough to get to the playoffs and compete will be to go over the luxury tax, for at least next year.

As of now the following salaries are on the books for next year:
Davis 17.2
Harrington 9.2
Jackson 7.1
Wright 2.5
Perovic 1.9
Belinelli 1.5
(Foyle) 6.9
Total: 48.3

Adding Ellis and Biedrins for about 17 million together next year and the 2 picks for about 2 million brings the total salary to about 67 million next year. At most, that leaves about 3 million before you hit the luxury tax line. I count only 7 rotation players and 10 roster spots filled, so if the tax line is the cutoff, that's 5 minimum salaried guys making up 1/3 of the roster and I'd feel lucky if one of them was a legitimate role player.

As I see it there are 3 possible ways to get some extra salary space under the tax next year, each unlikely and with problems:
1.) Baron opts out and signs a new extension starting somewhere between 10 and 12 million. This could give us between 8 to 10 million to work with to find a bench.
Problem: The chances of Baron opting out to sign for less are very low IMO, as he can afford to wait one more year. Also, I think Baron would want a starting salary of at least 14 million anyways, and at that point I'd rather wait another year before giving him an extension.

2.) Trade Harrington for an upgrade at PF or for 2 productive bench players.
Problem: I don't see any PF upgrade out there that wouldn't cost a lot more than Al. Also, I really doubt that Al is the kind of player that some team is going to want to trade two proven productive pieces for, he's just not a game-changer and is probably slightly overpaid.

3.) Force Biedrins to sign the QO for about 3.6 million. Again, this would give us about 8 million to spend.
Problem: I really don't want to see him reach UFA with a grudge against the team. There's quite a few teams that should be under the cap next off-season and I'm sure he'd have several options to leave. This also assumes that he would get no offers this summer, which I would find hard to believe if his contract situation drags on very long.

So, unless we get lucky somewhere, (either with Baron suddenly becoming more altruistic and signing for a discount or finding a rookie or FA scrub who is ready to contribute immediately), I just don't see how we're going to get much better next year.

The only way to improve is for management to put all their cards on the table this offseason. That means using the TE on draft day, using the MLE and possibly using Bird rights on Pietrus (either in a S&T or to keep) as well as Azubuike.

The great thing about it, is that it could be done without automatically putting the team over the tax the following year as well. Next year, we lose Foyle's 7 million, Baron will either be gone or take a pay-cut of about 4 million, and the tax line will probably go up a couple of million again. So, we'll still be able to maneuver easily next year under the tax, and the following year Al and Jax come off so we could quite possibly have max room to go after someone.

Also, Cohan saved about 10 million on salary this year even though we weren't in danger of touching the tax, so he's saved the extra money already. I realize that he lost playoff revenue this year, but he'll probably lose it again next year if he half-asses the payroll again. Plus, it's Nellie's last year, at least give him a chance.

Basically, the team is in the perfect position to go over the luxury tax this coming year, without necessarily making it a habit. If it doesn't happen this year, then we might as well resign ourselves to the fact that our team will always be run as a second rate franchise.

[Sid the Squid]

Nelson just said they have to stay under

[giberish]

It's disappointing as the Warriors should be able to afford one year of the tax. The Bay Area isn't a small market. With only 1 team, it's a medium/large market. Especially with the benefit of going into the tax being a team more likely to get home playoff games next year (and even the year after) a one year, ~$5M luxury tax hit shouldn't be crippling to Cohan, but apparently it's out of the question.

[iowarrior]

Great post, WarFan! I immediately went to the "Hell Yeah" selection.

You make some valid points of how going over the lux tax could be for only one year and how that would pay off big-time in the long run.

[Sid the Squid]

"But we'll have to stay under the cap and do a good job managing the monies that we have." (ODB gets a little confused about everything these days, but he meant under the luxery tax)

http://www.contracostatimes.com/warriors/ci_8970516

[floppymoose]

3.) Force Biedrins to sign the QO for about 3.6 million. Again, this would give us about 8 million to spend.

Can't happen. Biedrins can force the Warriors to give him a 1 year QO and then take it, if for some reason he hates the Warriors so much that he wants to be unrestricted after next season and is willing to give up 5 million dollars to do it, not to mention risk loosing huge if he has a career ending injury during the QO year.

But the Warriors can't force that on Biedrins, because some team will step up and offer Beans a deal if the Warriors refuse to do so themselves. Then the Warriors will either have to match or let him walk for nothing, and neither of those choices are a QO deal.

[Warriorfan]

There are other routes that are left. The warriors still have the exemption until 2 days after the draft. So they can trade it for say Malik rose and a reserve guard like Balkman. They can also have under 15 players under contract.

With all that said I would go over the luxury tax this year in order to help the future. I would offer frontloaded contracts to Biedrens and Monta so when and then give Baron a 1 year extension so that when Davis, Harrington and Jackson come off the books in 2010 a supposed good FA year they have cap room to sign a top player.

[Carl_Monday]

"But we'll have to stay under the cap and do a good job managing the monies that we have." (ODB gets a little confused about everything these days, but he meant under the luxery tax)

I friggin give up. Ugh. I think that everyone agrees that the Warriors are sitting hime right now is because they were so damn thin. I understand that the Dubs didn't want any long term salary because of this offseason, but there were plenty of ways to get players whom would not have affected this offseason's salary structure. The Dubs were under the lux tax this year by slightly under $10 million. The TPE was sitting there to be used on a player whom only had a year left on his deal. The LLE was sitting there to sign a player for one year with a team option on the second year. There were plenty of ways to improve the team this year without adversely affecting the future, but no moves were made and it cost the team the playoffs.

My "glass half full" take on this was that the team acknowledged the difficulties in putting out a competitive team in the 2008-09 season while staying under the luxury tax, so they'd save some money this year, and put that cash towards going slightly over the lux tax in 2008-09. This doesn't appear to be the case anymore.


Warfan, nice write up. I got slightly different numbers but it's the same conclusion. With the 6 guarenteed contract, Foyle's buyout, and the two draft picks the Warrior will be sitting at a hair over $49 million. Add that $17 million figure for the 1st years of Beans and Ellis, and the total team salary is sitting at $66 million. Looking at past increases in the lux tax threshold, that number should be about $70 million next season. That's $4 million to fill out the last 3rd of the roster.

Any vet with at least 2 years of experience will cost the team about $800K next year. If we get 5 of those type players, that puts the team right at the lux tax threshold. Whoopy dee freakin doo. And if the lux tax increases less than expected, the Warrior can't even do that! Geez, I can't wait for the offseason to begin.


As for potential solutions, the last thing I want is for Beans to be playing for the QO next year. Just get it done and lock the dude up long term. There look to be way more teams with 2009 cap space than there are this year, so that's a really bad risk. Trading Al will probably just make the team worse (his value isn't that high now), and will probably do little to help cap space. And Baron, well I don't have a clue. He's not opting out of his contract straight up. If he does opt out of his last year to re-sign for say 3 years, I think that would be a great deal, even if it's starting at $14 million. Every little bit will help this offseason, and despite the negative opinion about Baron at this point, I still feel he's a key cog on the team, and need him here in the near future before the reigns to the team are officially handed over to Tay.


So back to free agency, if all we can afford are vet min guys and D-League scrubs, I'd be in favor of bringing back Barnes, Cro, and CJ (yes, even CJ). Side note on CJ: in that Nellie interview he refferred to CJ as his second best bench guy, and he was the best when you look at the +/-. I has to look it up, but it is the sad sad truth (outside of Kosta and his 38 minutes on the season. If the Warriors are shopping in the bargain bin this offseason (i.e. guys playing for the minimum), I'm not sure that there's be better bargain out there to round at the bench than those 3 guys. They can only afford $4million to pay one third of the team. Sad indeed.

[FNQ]

This guy knew exactly what he was doing... he got rich off a "We Believe" slogan and a gimmick...

He got us good too... the FO isn't ignorant, they know exactly what they are doing.. no one there believes were building anything right now... Cohan wants to try and squeeze one more gimmicky year out of Nellie so he can keep his prices up...

I cant find one really knowledgable or experienced coach around who thinks the W's didn't just play this season (and probably next) for money...

I won't be a sucker next year... LP gets my money... the biggest plus is that the Nellie cycle is almost nearly complete. All he has to do is realize the team has peaked and he'll be history and the W's can actually finish the rebuilding they have put on pause.

[Left*My*Heart]

The Warriors haven't had a plan in place and they weren't in any type of rebulding mode prior to Nellie, unless the Warriors goal was to create a mediocre team.

I was hoping after last off season that Mullin and company had finally put together a plan to not only build a winner, but to manage their cap as well.

The Warriors have managed their cap, however I think it is more a case of being cheap than anything else. I'm already concerned about comments that Mullin is making regarding the team and his expectations. I don't expect any changes to the roster than going into next season with a couple of new rookies and a cheap FA or two.