Around the NBA II

Left*My*Heart · Post #1001 » by **Left*My*Heart** » Thu Jul 25, 2013 8:31 pm

I think Speights role with Golden State will make him more efficient. I can definitely see his skill set being a positive. A lot will depend on how Jackson uses him.

EvanZ · Post #1002 » by **EvanZ** » Thu Jul 25, 2013 8:31 pm

oaktownwarriors87 wrote:
I don't think it can predict it better than any other stat.

That's awesome. Good science!

Mylie10 · Post #1003 » by **Mylie10** » Thu Jul 25, 2013 9:07 pm

If Speights shoots anywhere near 48-50% from the field, then he'll be a good edition.

Jester_ · Post #1004 » by **Jester_** » Fri Jul 26, 2013 12:22 am

EvanZ wrote:Brandan Wright got a contract a guy with +2.2 RAPM probably should get.

Speights is -2.5.

Let's not forget what Jack and Landry's RAPM's were coming into the year. RAPM is great, but it's not a good tool to project how a low-usage player in a bad situation's game would translate to a different environment.

Onus · Post #1005 » by **Onus** » Fri Jul 26, 2013 12:31 am

Yea rapm is good to see how well a player is doing in his current role on his team. It doesn't tell you anything about how said player will do in a different role on a different team.

Jester_ · Post #1006 » by **Jester_** » Fri Jul 26, 2013 12:35 am

Onus wrote:Yea rapm is good to see how well a player is doing in his current role on his team. It doesn't tell you anything about how said player will do in a different role on a different team.

For low usage players yes, because those are the ones who are most impacted by environment. For starting-level, high usage players, RAPM is generally pretty consistent from team to team for most players.

Onus · Post #1007 » by **Onus** » Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:08 am

That's because high usage players rarely change roles from team to team

EvanZ · Post #1008 » by **EvanZ** » Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:12 am

Jester_ wrote:
EvanZ wrote:Brandan Wright got a contract a guy with +2.2 RAPM probably should get.

Speights is -2.5.

Let's not forget what Jack and Landry's RAPM's were coming into the year. RAPM is great, but it's not a good tool to project how a low-usage player in a bad situation's game would translate to a different environment.

Landry was -0.8. Jack was -1.8.

After the season Landry is -1.6 and Jack is -0.7.

Swings of +/- 1 point seem fairly reasonable from year to year just due to changes in role/team or improvement of a player. I don't expect that Speights suddenly becomes an above average (>0 RAPM) player, and I don't expect Wright becomes below average.

At the end of the day, we don't have a better tool to predict what their impact is, so I usually stick with RAPM. That doesn't mean it's perfect, of course.

But I would take Brandan Wright over Speights any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Jester_ · Post #1009 » by **Jester_** » Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:17 am

EvanZ wrote:
Jester_ wrote:
EvanZ wrote:Brandan Wright got a contract a guy with +2.2 RAPM probably should get.

Speights is -2.5.

Let's not forget what Jack and Landry's RAPM's were coming into the year. RAPM is great, but it's not a good tool to project how a low-usage player in a bad situation's game would translate to a different environment.

Landry was -0.8. Jack was -1.8.

After the season Landry is -1.6 and Jack is -0.7.

Swings of +/- 1 point seem fairly reasonable from year to year just due to changes in role/team or improvement of a player. I don't expect that Speights suddenly becomes an above average (>0 RAPM) player, and I don't expect Wright becomes below average.

At the end of the day, we don't have a better tool to predict what their impact is, so I usually stick with RAPM. That doesn't mean it's perfect, of course.

But I would take Brandan Wright over Speights any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Jack went from a middling near-scrub on a dying team to a key playoff competitor on one of the top 5 playoff teams last year. If that's the equivalent of a 1 point swing, I'd love to get that out of Speights regardless of what his RAPM ends up (it's a cumulative tally, so that's not all that relevant).

I don't disagree with Brandan Wright though, not at all.

EvanZ · Post #1010 » by **EvanZ** » Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:44 am

Jester_ wrote:
Jack went from a middling near-scrub on a dying team to a key playoff competitor on one of the top 5 playoff teams last year. If that's the equivalent of a 1 point swing, I'd love to get that out of Speights regardless of what his RAPM ends up (it's a cumulative tally, so that's not all that relevant).

I don't think Jack's game changed all that much. His stats really didn't change from his career averages. The only thing that changed is that he got to play with Stephen Curry. He's always been a respected player around the league.

and1GS · Post #1011 » by **and1GS** » Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:50 am

How good is John Wall really? I'm a big fan of his but he's certainly not a max player. Seems like Washington's hand was forced, but I wonder how good he's be with a real team around him.

and1GS · Post #1012 » by **and1GS** » Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:50 am

EvanZ wrote:
Jester_ wrote:
Jack went from a middling near-scrub on a dying team to a key playoff competitor on one of the top 5 playoff teams last year. If that's the equivalent of a 1 point swing, I'd love to get that out of Speights regardless of what his RAPM ends up (it's a cumulative tally, so that's not all that relevant).

I don't think Jack's game changed all that much. His stats really didn't change from his career averages. The only thing that changed is that he got to play with Stephen Curry. He's always been a respected player around the league.

Yah I'd have to agree, he more or less played the same game he'd always played.

usedtoknowhim · Post #1013 » by **usedtoknowhim** » Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:49 pm

does jj putting up similar stats to his career avg really tell the whole story? this was his first time doing it meaningful minutes on a high quality team. how do we factor in team success into rapm? i think that's a variable that's hard to quantify when assimilating into any individual stat, right?

when curry put up big numbers and we were a losing team he was gqstatpad. now that we had a good season he's the golden child, a splash bro, one of the brightest young stars, etc.

with all that said, i'm a fan of advanced stats, but they fall short of telling the whole story.

Mylie10 · Post #1014 » by **Mylie10** » Fri Jul 26, 2013 3:19 pm

EvanZ wrote:
Jester_ wrote:
EvanZ wrote:Brandan Wright got a contract a guy with +2.2 RAPM probably should get.

Speights is -2.5.

Let's not forget what Jack and Landry's RAPM's were coming into the year. RAPM is great, but it's not a good tool to project how a low-usage player in a bad situation's game would translate to a different environment.

Landry was -0.8. Jack was -1.8.

After the season Landry is -1.6 and Jack is -0.7.

Swings of +/- 1 point seem fairly reasonable from year to year just due to changes in role/team or improvement of a player. I don't expect that Speights suddenly becomes an above average (>0 RAPM) player, and I don't expect Wright becomes below average.

At the end of the day, we don't have a better tool to predict what their impact is, so I usually stick with RAPM. That doesn't mean it's perfect, of course.

But I would take Brandan Wright over Speights any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

I agree

Mylie10 · Post #1015 » by **Mylie10** » Fri Jul 26, 2013 3:23 pm

Again though....to keep it real simple....if Speights shoot close to 50%, then he will have a nice impact, because he will rebound and he will set screens...it comes down to him making his midrange shots.

whocurrz · Post #1016 » by **whocurrz** » Fri Jul 26, 2013 3:48 pm

and1GS wrote:How good is John Wall really? I'm a big fan of his but he's certainly not a max player. Seems like Washington's hand was forced, but I wonder how good he's be with a real team around him.

It's tough to tell. Prior to last year his team was a bunch of knuckleheads like McGee and Nick Young. This year he missed a good chunk of the season and the team was atrocious without him. Wall came back and probably put up stats a top 10 player I'm the league would towards tr end of the year and led that same Wiz team and led them to respectable finish. Don't know if his 3 point % is sustainable and his jumpshot could regress, but even so I'm not sure what Washington is supposed to do. They can't let him go for nothing, he's young improving and Washington is no FA destination. Even if Wall ends up being overpaid its better to use that money to pay a young guy with great potential instead of overpaying some B or C class FA. Plus he's so young and athletic, a good defender and playmaker so unless he has a career altering injury should not be some immovable contract.

I would probably gamble on giving Wall close to max, like we had to with gamble giving Curry a long term contract. I think Wall is already one of the better playmaking and defensive PGs in the league who could be almost a nightly triple double threat if he keeps a solid jumper.

oaktownwarriors87 · Post #1017 » by **oaktownwarriors87** » Fri Jul 26, 2013 4:43 pm

Onus wrote:That's because high usage players rarely change roles from team to team

Bingo

Quazza · Post #1018 » by **Quazza** » Fri Jul 26, 2013 10:30 pm

Wall was dominant in the last part of the season. Does he continue that AFTER signing a max deal.

For Washingtons sake I hope so

BlackFalconGSW · Post #1019 » by **BlackFalconGSW** » Sat Jul 27, 2013 1:02 pm

The Indiana Pacers are going to be very, very good next year.

Hill/Watson
Stephenson/S.Hill
George/Granger
West/Scola/Copeland
Hibbert/Mahinmi

Jester_ · Post #1020 » by **Jester_** » Sat Jul 27, 2013 7:37 pm

BlackFalconGSW wrote:The Indiana Pacers are going to be very, very good next year.

Hill/Watson
Stephenson/S.Hill
George/Granger
West/Scola/Copeland
Hibbert/Mahinmi

Yeah. Unless Miami signs Oden and he can somewhat perform, I'm not sure they can beat Indiana next year. They barely beat this year's Pacers... add Granger AND Scola to the bunch.