Warriors have a Steve Kerr problem

[CDM_Stats]

Tell me Steve Kerr is doing an average job right now. Lie to me

[Sandy333]

One trick pony Steve still scatching his head on how to win the old warriors way. He has no clue on the present player skillset and how to utilize them. He has not developed a single player. All the picks are approaching scrub status.

[vagelis]

One trick pony Steve still scatching his head on how to win the old warriors way. He has no clue on the present player skillset and how to utilize them. He has not developed a single player. All the picks are approaching scrub status.

His way to win is over. The players are different.
He needs to change.
The team has already failed the last 2 seasons

[Romulus]

Kerr really told Dunleavy NOT to make any moves? OMG. This is suicide.

[Mambomuziki]

Just thinking! Compare Clippers with GSW before Kawhi came back. Would you say their talent is on par with Warriors? If so how come they are more competitive than us.

Sent from my Pixel 7a using RealGM mobile app

[marthafokker]

Just thinking! Compare Clippers with GSW before Kawhi came back. Would you say their talent is on par with Warriors? If so how come they are more competitive than us.

Sent from my Pixel 7a using RealGM mobile app

They got a coach light years better.

[superunknown]

Tell me Steve Kerr is doing an average job right now. Lie to me

he is doing an average job

[TB]

What in the world did Looney do to deserve this lol

Guy came into camp best shape ever... played great... and now is probably gaining those 25 pounds back while collecting DNPCDs.

Not to mention Kerr is now splitting Steph/Dray minutes....

BUT, we need to start with the number 1 fix that has to happen asap:

Replacing Dennis in starting lineup (never should have been there)

Since TJD is probably staying in the starting lineup over Loon, there are still very similar lineup trends with Steph, Wiggins, Dray, TJD where the only failures as the 5th players is Dennis or Kuminga. Podz and Buddy have been dominant as the 5th player in small sample sizes (in the +30's net range), and surprisingly Lindy has played the most minutes as the 5th guy and done just fine with a +11 net.

For the love of basketball please put Buddy or Podz into the starting lineup with those 4 and actually give it some serious run.

Start with:

Steph, Buddy, Wiggins, Dray, TJD

Bring in Podz and Kuminga for Buddy and TJD (unless Buddy is on a heater).

Bring in Moody or GP2 for Wiggins and Loon or Kyle for Dray.

Bring in Dennis for Steph.

Now are starting 2nd with something like Dennis, Podz, Moody, Kuminga, Loon (or Kyle).

Basically reverse/repeat this process to keep Steph always playing with his best big and small ball lineups (yes I'd swap Loon for TJD but this still works with TJD).

IF that 2nd unit gets destroyed because Dennis keeps shooting like Brad Wanamaker, so be it... at least it only tanks the 16 minutes with the 2nd unit and not Steph minutes.

[CDM_Stats]

IF that 2nd unit gets destroyed because Dennis keeps shooting like Brad Wanamaker, so be it... at least it only tanks the 16 minutes with the 2nd unit and not Steph minutes.

agree with all obv, but wanted to point out one thing.. Schroder had 6 assists, 0 TOs in 10 non-Steph minutes going into Q4 tonight.. that's why he fit so well. Stabilizing and creating for the backup unit, w/o Steph. They netted out at -4 in those 10 minutes, but without Podz/GP2/JK, wouldnt expect miracles anyways. The guy is here to create for others and defend, and in that regard, he's as advertised. If Kerr did pivot to using him as you've put up here, and the unit was mostly intact, I'd be excited to see what they could do

Anyways, back to reality

[TB]

IF that 2nd unit gets destroyed because Dennis keeps shooting like Brad Wanamaker, so be it... at least it only tanks the 16 minutes with the 2nd unit and not Steph minutes.

agree with all obv, but wanted to point out one thing.. Schroder had 6 assists, 0 TOs in 10 non-Steph minutes going into Q4 tonight.. that's why he fit so well. Stabilizing and creating for the backup unit. They netted out at -4 in those 10 minutes, but without Podz/GP2/JK, wouldnt expect miracles anyways. The guy is here to create for others and defend, and in that regard, he's as advertised. If Kerr did pivot to using him as you've put up here, and the unit was mostly intact, I'd be excited to see what they could do

Anyways, back to reality

He really did look good in those minutes. And with Podz in more of an Andre type role next to Dennis and sometimes Steph, I just can't image he and Dennis stay shooting sub 30 from 3.

[CDM_Stats]

I keep seeing stuff how its not on Kerr, its the roster, its this, its that. And if we're talking about a title, sure. If we're talking about being a lot more relevant, well.. no. Just no.

So I ran a weighted simulation on the team, entirely sans Melton on 10 universal data points (datapoints that can be applied to all teams). This leaves out some of the things that make the Warriors metrics I use very accurate, but allows for things like re-running the games we've already played with certain parameters. So thats what I did, with the parameters a lot of us are screaming for, using the following depth chart:

Curry (24) / Schroder (24)
Hield (24) / Curry (8) / Podz (16)
Wiggins (28) / GP2 (14) / Moody (6)
Draymond (16) / JK (24) / SloMo (8)
Looney (24) / Draymond (12) / TJD (12)

quick notes:
- for guys who are being asked to play more than their usual minutes, introduced a fatigue variable that doesnt extrapolate what they do in less minutes, linearly. IE Looney - if he had a 30% rebrate in 10 minutes, we fatigue that percentage with extra minutes. Feel like we erred on the side of overfatiguing than underfatiguing
- for guys being asked to play less than usual minutes, we did not improve their numbers. Too subjective and didnt want to put thumbs on the scales
- the lineups for the other 29 teams were not affected at all

The simulation was run 50 times in a random forest model. First, for comparison, here are the Warriors current basic stats:
18-18
111.4 ORtg (21st)
111.4 DRtg (9th)
Net -0.0 (15th)

The average of the simulations with the above lineups (rounded to be cleaner) was 23-13, a 4 game difference
114.7 ORtg (would be 11th)
110.1 DRtg (would be 6th)
Net +4.58 (would be 8th)

**NOTE: those ratings are compared to the actual ones in today's NBA, real numbers. In the sims, the team finished as high as 4th in Net and as low as 13th

In 50 runs, only ONE of them had the Warriors 50%, at 18-18. The highest run had them at 26-10 (x2) and the most often hit record was in fact 23-13 (x14). It should be noted that this also accounted for missed games - exact missed games. If Steph missed a game on 11/8 this year, he missed that game in the sims as well.

No one is saying the team is title bound
No one is saying we'd be a contender
They are saying we're better than Steve Kerr is allowing the team to be. And I can tell you for sure, since this same model that has been pretty damn accurate for the past 5 years, we are leaving more value on the table than we have since KD left. Regardless if some fans go over the top with it, it doesnt change the fact that they are inexplicably making awful decisions as Steph wraps up his career

[ILOVEIT]

I'm warming to the idea that Kerr is a problem. Remember how Don Nelson had no idea how to run the Warriors offense with bigs? And when he finally got bigger (with Webber) he F'ed it up. My theory will always be that coaches lean on one style of hoops and can't adjust to talent that doesn't fit THEIR system. Kerr and Curry/Draymond were a match made in heaven. But Kerr with a guy like Schroder has zero idea how to maximize his minutes. If there isn't ball movement his whole value as a coach dies.

Schroder and Kuminga could be a dominant two-man pick and roll combination. But Kerr won't allow it/doesn't know how to combine that type of offense with motion.

Kerr will always lean on small ball because it's the only style he trusts/understands. Warriors don't have the talent for it anymore. That's a problem.

[BayAreaDub]

Exactly^

Kerr’s been too obsessed with midget ball. Boring and predictable. Hope Lacob can recognize that.

[Jester_]

Even if you accept that Kerr was a great coach the first few years (which I don't, but I'm in the minority in that belief), you can't logically conclude the game hasn't passed him by

He's also been proven incapable of handling Draymond, who's temperament caused us to lose KD and also wrecked our '22 championship core

Kerr hasn't adapted while the league has

[Crazy-Canuck]

I keep seeing stuff how its not on Kerr, its the roster, its this, its that. And if we're talking about a title, sure. If we're talking about being a lot more relevant, well.. no. Just no.

So I ran a weighted simulation on the team, entirely sans Melton on 10 universal data points (datapoints that can be applied to all teams). This leaves out some of the things that make the Warriors metrics I use very accurate, but allows for things like re-running the games we've already played with certain parameters. So thats what I did, with the parameters a lot of us are screaming for, using the following depth chart:

Curry (24) / Schroder (24)
Hield (24) / Curry (8) / Podz (16)
Wiggins (28) / GP2 (14) / Moody (6)
Draymond (16) / JK (24) / SloMo (8)
Looney (24) / Draymond (12) / TJD (12)

quick notes:
- for guys who are being asked to play more than their usual minutes, introduced a fatigue variable that doesnt extrapolate what they do in less minutes, linearly. IE Looney - if he had a 30% rebrate in 10 minutes, we fatigue that percentage with extra minutes. Feel like we erred on the side of overfatiguing than underfatiguing
- for guys being asked to play less than usual minutes, we did not improve their numbers. Too subjective and didnt want to put thumbs on the scales
- the lineups for the other 29 teams were not affected at all

The simulation was run 50 times in a random forest model. First, for comparison, here are the Warriors current basic stats:
18-18
111.4 ORtg (21st)
111.4 DRtg (9th)
Net -0.0 (15th)

The average of the simulations with the above lineups (rounded to be cleaner) was 23-13, a 4 game difference
114.7 ORtg (would be 11th)
110.1 DRtg (would be 6th)
Net +4.58 (would be 8th)

**NOTE: those ratings are compared to the actual ones in today's NBA, real numbers. In the sims, the team finished as high as 4th in Net and as low as 13th

In 50 runs, only ONE of them had the Warriors 50%, at 18-18. The highest run had them at 26-10 (x2) and the most often hit record was in fact 23-13 (x14). It should be noted that this also accounted for missed games - exact missed games. If Steph missed a game on 11/8 this year, he missed that game in the sims as well.

No one is saying the team is title bound
No one is saying we'd be a contender
They are saying we're better than Steve Kerr is allowing the team to be. And I can tell you for sure, since this same model that has been pretty damn accurate for the past 5 years, we are leaving more value on the table than we have since KD left. Regardless if some fans go over the top with it, it doesnt change the fact that they are inexplicably making awful decisions as Steph wraps up his career

A billion dollar franchise with a million dollar coach with access to all the stats driven data out there, can't see any of this?

Either kerr isn't listening or they need to fire their analytics team. And if it's kerr ignoring the analytics, no trade is going to fix this. I know they have a shots analytics they use and works. Just this year, they changed jks shot distribution for the better.

[CDM_Stats]

A billion dollar franchise with a million dollar coach with access to all the stats driven data out there, can't see any of this?

Either kerr isn't listening or they need to fire their analytics team. And if it's kerr ignoring the analytics, no trade is going to fix this. I know they have a shots analytics they use and works. Just this year, they changed jks shot distribution for the better.

well anyone could run a model, but like coaching strategy, how you set it up is what makes it worth anything or nothing

But from what I've seen, basic and advanced level tracking stuff.. I'd be surprised if the analytics team is on board with how things are being executed. Kerr has certain tendencies that he doesnt move off of.. and we're seeing it again this year. Will he? Guess we've been asking that for a couple years.. with Steph's window closing rapidly and 2 years of underwhelming results, I'd hope Kerr re-assesses how he does things. But its just hope, because there are no signs its going to change

[Sandy333]

Please could the thread be locked. Kerr is a coaching dinosaur was confirmed when he lost the worlds for USA. Only all time top 10 of Curry KD and Lebron with AD who need no coaching saved his ass with thier individual brilliance in the olympics.

[SpreeS]

SAC won 6 games from 7 after fired Brown. Sometimes you need to change one small part in big things and everything starts working again.

[cpower]

SAC won 6 games from 7 after fired Brown. Sometimes you need to change one small part in big things and everything starts working again.

they won more games because Fox did not play, just wait for him to be back and they will start losing again

[SpreeS]

SAC won 6 games from 7 after fired Brown. Sometimes you need to change one small part in big things and everything starts working again.

they won more games because Fox did not play, just wait for him to be back and they will start losing again

With Fox 3 wins and w/o him 3 wins - 6 in row.