Post#1212 » by Warriors Analyst » Fri Apr 2, 2021 11:00 pm
It's hard for me not to see this season as a disaster for Wiseman and the Warriors.
Before the draft, I warned against drafting Wiseman. I expected that as a rookie big, he'd likely be bad on defense, and the one competitive game that he played in the NCAA against Oregon was littered with defensive blunders and inexplicable decisions on offense. Unfortunately, the Oregon game is pretty much exactly what we've gotten out of Wiseman. He has gotten better on defense as the year has progressed and he's shown more promise switching than he has in drop schemes, so he's not a total disaster, but I think it's crystal clear that Wiseman was the wrong pick and the Warriors are doing pretty much everything they can to mess up his development and/or trade value.
Some numbers here:
Wiseman's OBPM on the year is -4.3. His DBPM is -1.3. As a point of reference, Andris Biedrins in his final year with the Warriors had a -4.8 OBPM. Biedrins' TS% that year was 45%. Wiseman's this year is 55%. Despite being a far more efficient finisher, a 33% three point shooter and shooting 30 points better from the free throw line than Biedrins, Wiseman's offensive impact is only marginally better than later career Biedrins. That's um... really bad.
In the Kerr era Steph has only been a part of three two-man combos to play >100 minutes with a negative net rating: Steph/Oubre -1.9, Steph/Varejao -6.6, and Steph/Wiseman -7.4. The ORTG of Steph/Wiseman is 102.8
In Steph's entire career, these are the negative net rating two-man combos he's been in that have received >100 minutes .
Steph/Oubre, Steph/Varejao (2015-16), Steph Wiseman, Steph/Festus (2012-13) Steph/Biedrins (2012-13), Steph/Steve Blake, Steph/Jordan Crawford, Steph/Klay (2011-12) , Steph/Biedrins (2011-12), Monta/Steph (2010-11), Steph/Reggie Williams (2010-11), Steph/Lou Admunson (2010-11), Steph/Biedrins (2010-11), Steph/Gadzuric (2010-11), Steph/Carney (2010-11) Steph/Turiaf (2009-10) Steph/Morrow (2009-10), Steph/S-Jax (2009-10), Steph/Chris Hunter (2009-10), Steph/Randolph, Steph/Biedrins (2009-10), Steph/William (2009-10)s, Steph/Maggette (2009-10), Steph/Randmonovic (2009-10), Monta/Steph (2009-10), Steph/Bukie (2009-10), Steph/Mikki Moore (2009-10)
In Steph's ENTIRE CAREER, only six two man-combos have performed worse than Steph/Wiseman:
Monta/Steph -8.0 (2009-10)
Steph/Gadzuric -8.8 (2010-11)
Steph/Carney -10.5 (2010-11)
Curry/Crawford -11.8 (2013-14)
Steph/Bukie -14.0 (2009-10)
Steph/Mikki Moore -20.8 (2009-10)
You'll notice that three of those two man combos are from when Steph was a rookie and wasn't STEPH F'n CURRY. The other three players Gadzuric, Carney, and Crawford, literally never played another NBA game after their seasons with the Warriors. So in the Kerr era era, Wiseman has had the worst numbers per net rating in a two-man combo with Steph and the only players worse than him played with rookie Steph or did not play in the NBA the season after. From the Kerr era, no two-man combo involving Steph has ever had a worse ORTG than Steph/Wiseman.
These numbers are brutal. I will say this, it's not fair to pin this entirely on Wiseman. He's very obviously being misused and his skillset is a terrible fit for what Kerr likes in centers. The front office deserves a lot of criticism for picking a guy who didn't fit Kerr's system and expecting he would and Kerr deserves criticism for doing pretty much nothing to put Wiseman in positions to succeed. The front office also messed up big time by not grabbing a vet C when Chriss went down. I love Looney, but we could use another vet body to save Wiseman from getting embarrassed. The fact is that Wiseman is really bad right now and he's going to be bad for a while.
What does Wiseman do well, exactly? Finish? Yeah, but he's also 7'1 and in the 99th percentile of human athleticism. He should at the bare minimum, finish well. At this point his jumper is mostly an idea. He's shooting 33% on jumpers this year and only 63% from the free throw line. On the year, Wiseman is shooting 30% from shots in the paint that are not in the restricted area, 29.7% on hook shots, and is shooting 34% from the mid-range. Add that all up and there's a body of evidence that suggests Wiseman doesn't have a natural shooter's touch. Beyond that, his shot selection is really bad. It's still a bit of a mystery as to whether the coaching staff wants Wiseman to post up or he's seeking out those shots himself, but he's a bad post player at this point. Victor Oladipo and Jimmy Butler punk'd him multiple times last night and he spins himself into trouble and fades on an alarming number of shots.
Wiseman has looked way more comfortable in PNR situations this year and I absolutely believe that he should be running more of those, but his PPP there isn't stellar either. Looney, Paschall, Dray, JTA, and Steph all have a higher PPP than Wiseman does as the roll man, albeit on lower volume (the only one who comes close to matching the frequency of PNR roll man is Paschall). Here, I think Steve deserves a lot of criticism. Yes, I do think that Kerr's system can be phenomenal with the right players, but... we don't have those right players right now. There might be some value to teaching Wiseman how to operate in that system, but I haven't seen much growth in his offensive game this year. His best games have come when his role is simplified and he's in the dunker spot or he gets to run the PNR as the roll man.
But there's issues here: we killed the Bulls in PNR two games ago and then just... went away from it against Miami. My guess is that Kerr thinks PNR is a gimmick and therefore doesn't feel comfortable running it against a smart defense, which is why he ran a bunch of motion stuff against Miami, but they shut all that down pretty easily. There's probably some truth to the fact that it's easier to run PNR against a bad defensive team like the Bulls, but I don't think that justifies going away from it against Miami. There was a way to run PNR with some success, but you have to commit to spacing the floor around Wiseman to make it work. I've noticed that Wiseman has a propensity for taking soft fadeaways on the roll when his path to the bucket is blocked by a defender. At this point he doesn't have the body control to euro around them and because he's not an instinctual passer, it's not terribly surprising that he panics and tries to fire up a fadeaway or stepback. But the fact is that he's not good at those right now. Wiseman would look a lot better if Kerr committed to running PNR's with MULTIPLE shooters, spacing the floor around him, which brings me to the whole issue of roster construction/rotation choices.
The handling of Oubre this year has been a disaster. It's pretty clear he's not a long term fit and I think at this point I'd rather just not have him on the team next year. I can't speak to all of the offers that were on the table at the deadline, but I'm inclined to think that most of those deals would have been better for the team THIS YEAR than keeping Oubre would be. Earlier in the year I wanted Lee to start. I understand that there's contract/emotional considerations that probably motivated Kerr to keep Oubre in the starting lineup for fear of alienating him and messing up his trade value or desire to remain here long term. But at this point in the season, it looks like the bridge is pretty much burnt between the Warriors and Oubre and the starting lineup is suffering for Oubre's role in it. Oubre can absolutely be a useful bench 4 in a simplified offensive system, but Kerr's not exactly a coach who wants a simplified offensive system and he's made it very clear he prioritizes defenses above offense, to the point of detriment. So as a result, Oubre's presence makes it harder to run PNR's against good defenses and bungles our spacing, for what exactly? What is the point in giving Oubre extended minutes at this point unless your end goal is to tank, emotional and developmental consequences be damned.
Bringing that back to Wiseman, if the goal for this entire year has been to tank, whatever, that sucks, but I can make sense of it. But the implicit motivation behind tanking is to accumulate assets that will help you win games at some point in the future. And this Warriors team doesn't have much of a future right now outside of the next two or three years that Steph is still Steph F'n Curry and I think it's clear that he can still be that guy on a lot of nights, but it's not reasonable to expect that night in and night out. So if you're tanking, you're now hoping that you get the Minnesota pick, keep our own pick, and that Wiseman can be a good player next year OR he can be a trade asset to help you get big fish.
But with how the Warriors have handled Wiseman this year, we've accomplished neither of those things. Wiseman looks worse than he did at the beginning of the season. His offensive impact numbers rival late career Andris Biedrins and when he's on the court with Steph, our offense is far below league average. He's shown some improvement on defense, but not nearly enough for anyone reasonable to expect he'll be anything other than raw meat for AD and Jokic in the post or Lillard and Luka dragging him into high PNR's in the playoffs over the next two years. So to date, the Warriors don't have a body of evidence that suggests Wiseman will help the team next year in the playoffs AND because he's been misused and Kerr's rotational choices have exacerbated Wiseman's offensive flaws, his trade value markedly worse than it was before he got drafted.
I don't think many of you understand how much his value is going to decrease next year unless he puts together an absolute monster season. Jarrett Allen was a late first round pick and had -0.9 OBPM and 0.1 DBPM as a rookie. He improved with every year and he got traded in his contract year for... a second round pick. That was the trade value of Jarrett Allen, a good young C, who is set to hit the FA market this year. Allen's reps want $17 mil. He'll probably get that from Cleveland because the Cavs are a bad org who have to overpay to retain talent. But how long do you think it'll take Wiseman to be worth $17 mil? If Wiseman only makes marginal improvements on the offensive side of the court, which is where my biggest worries lie with him, and grades out around +1.0 DBPM, which is where Allen and Myles Turner's career averages are, how much do you want to pay Wiseman? How much do you think other teams will want to pay Wiseman? There's not going to be much of an appetite to trade for Wiseman for the privilege to pay him >$20 mil, which is what he and his representatives will absolutely want for a former #2 pick. Right now Wiseman makes just under $9 million dollars a year. He makes more than Serge Ibaka makes right now. How long do you think it'll be until Wiseman is actually worth $9 mil for his oncourt value?
It's a mess of a situation, long term. Wiseman isn't very good right now. He'll get better, but he's never going to be worth the #2 pick and Kerr's coaching decisions have made it harder to use Wiseman to trade for a big fish. We're most likely stuck with Wiseman so I do hope that he improves and becomes a key part of the Warriors' success next year, but I don't think the early signs point to that happening.