The Tank 11'12 thread.

[Jester_]

If we got the 7th pick (we can't get the 8th), it would be a toss up between Zeller, Sully, Barnes and possibly Henson for me. Zeller seems to a lot of people a reach in top 7, but he's a 7 footer that's polished and would be a great backup to Bogut. Between Barnes and Sully, it would boil down to their workouts. They both fit a need, and they both have bust potential. Henson is the dark horse -- he seems like a candidate to be a bust, but he's also got freakish dimensions and rock-solid potential.

It would be an interesting position to be in to say the least. No PJ3 for me though, thanks. I don't trust our team's ability to groom project bigs with no skill. At least Henson can defend and rebound.

[GSForever]

If its not Sully pick up the phone and ask for Udoh back for the 7th.

[EvanZ]

It's a really weak year for international players. What's the deal with that? I always like speculating about those dudes. Oh, well.

I still do like Henson. That's the guy I was hoping would come out last season. He's the most "freak" outside of Davis in this draft. Maybe it's worth taking a risk on someone like that. He has gained weight over the past few years. He'll put on weight over time, just like AR has. AR is at least 10-20 pounds heavier than he was with GSW.

[EvanZ]

If its not Sully pick up the phone and ask for Udoh back for the 7th.

I would happily do it. Maybe the Bucks would too. Now that's a team that could Sullinger. Put him and Sanders together. Pretty good combo.

Heck, even if they gave us Sanders, I'd probably take it.

[Jester_]

Does Mil have a first? If so then our pick for Udoh and their 1st. With Sanders, Udoh isn't as valuable to MIL so I can see them biting on that. MIL's pick will end up in the ~14 range, which means if we're lucky we can grab Kendall Marshall. It ends up being Udoh + Kendall Marshall for Sullinger. That's pretty great value for MIL too since, as you said, Sully would be great on that team.

I agree on Henson, I'd be willing to take a flyer on him.

[TB]

I see Marshall ending up a top 10 pick. With Lillard pushing for top 10 as well.

They are the only PGs, and Portland, Utah, NOH, and possibly Toronto could be looking for a playmaker.

Then its basically true PG vs. scoring PG. Poor man rondo vs. poor man Westbrook.

[EvanZ]

I can't imagine them swapping Udoh and their pick. But straight up the 7th for Udoh, that's a good trade. We already know how valuable Udoh is.

[heyrayray]

Toronto and Cavs win= Good Tank day.

[Jester_]

Wow, Toronto actually has a shot at winning. This will be huge if they can pull it off. Then all we need is the Nets to beat TO in that matchup and we're tied for 6th again.

[EvanZ]

Would we want to be tied with TO and NJN for 6th or have sole possession of 7th?

I think it actually is the same probability either way.

[floppymoose]

We want to be tied for 6th. Then you have a 50/50 shot at the 6th slot in the lotto, which means one team behind us can jump to top 3 without making us lose our pick. If you have sole possession of 7th, any team jumping over us loses us the pick.

Unless you meant tied with BOTH NJN and TOR for the 6/7/8 spots. In which case, you are pretty much right. The main difference is that we would get some info before the actual lottery about where we stood. If we won the coin flip for 6, we'd almost surely get to keep our pick. If we lost the flip for 6th and 7th, we'd know we almost surely won't keep the pick.

[brettski]

This will all be irrelevant when Golden State screw up and beat New Orleans.

[EvanZ]

Unless you meant tied with BOTH NJN and TOR for the 6/7/8 spots. In which case, you are pretty much right. The main difference is that we would get some info before the actual lottery about where we stood. If we won the coin flip for 6, we'd almost surely get to keep our pick. If we lost the flip for 6th and 7th, we'd know we almost surely won't keep the pick.

That's what I meant. If there is a 3-way tie, I don't think they would do coin flip. They choose 2 numbers out of 3 (metaphorically). And what ever order those two are in would be the final order.

So, let's say: GSW = G, NJN = N, TOR = T

Enumerating the possibilities:

1. GN
2. GT
3. NG
4. TG
5. NT
6. TN

1/3 = 6th, 1/3 = 7th, 1/3 = 8th

Multiply those by the probabilities of the lottery, etc.

[floppymoose]

I was using "coin flip" as shorthand for "random selection". You can still do it with coin flips and for all I know that's how they do it, but it doesn't matter as long as the odds are equal.

example:
3 coin flips:

HHH => GS/TOR/NJN
HHT => GS/NJN/TOR
HTH => TOR/NJN/GS
HTT => TOR/GS/NJN
THH => NJN/TOR/GS
THT => NJN/GS/TOR
TTH => redo
TTT => redo

redo means do the 3 flips again until one of the first 6 possibilities happens.

[blackham9258]

Jazz nation collectively holding our breath for the final of this Toronto game tonight. We want one coin flip at worst.

[Jester_]

What are the odds of keeping our pick if we're 6th? I heard someone say at 6th its 95% at 7th its 75% and at 8th its 5%? I'm probably remembering wrong, but with those odds:

7 gauranteed: 75% chance of keeping our pick

6/7/8 = 1/3(.95) + 1/3(.75) + 1/3(.05) = ~60%

So with those numbers 7th guarunteed is better than 3-way tie for 6th, unless I'm missing something or I got my odds wrong at the top.

[TB]

doesn't look like Raptors or Cavs are going to pull this off.

[heyrayray]

We are screwed. These bottom seven teams are determined.

[Jester_]

Well TO and CLE both lose, so that whole scenario is pretty much out of the picture. Now it's tie for 7th or nothing...

1/2(.75) + 1/2(.05) = 40% of keeping our pick

[blackham9258]

Ersan Illyasova comes to the Jazz' rescue. Come on GSW just win baby!