WISEMAN EXPECTATIONS: Year 1

[TB]

My only concern with Boucher is if the 3point shooting was a bit of a mirage this year. He was under 30% post all star break, and that is when he had 12 of his 14 starts.

Outside of that, he's a great fit for out team and I'd still want him if available.

[FNQ]

My only concern with Boucher is if the 3point shooting was a bit of a mirage this year. He was under 30% post all star break, and that is when he had 12 of his 14 starts.

Outside of that, he's a great fit for out team and I'd still want him if available.

He's quickly becoming a BBIQ test for me. Either people watch him and dont understand what they're seeing, or don't watch yet need to have counter-opinions on him that are literally just.. "nah, forget the numbers and impact, I don't like him". Great stuff but not exactly convincing.

But diving into the numbers a little further:

Boucher shot 41% when left wide open from 3 (6+ feet)
Boucher shot 38% when mostly open from 3 (4-6 feet)
Boucher shot 20% when guarded decently (2-4 feet)

So I ran this against his numbers from the rest of his career.

Historically, not accounting for this season, he's shot 41% when wide open, 25% when mostly open (4-6), and 33% when guarded decently (2-4) - but should be noted that that was literally 4 of 12 shooting, so not exactly a good sample set there.

What this means is that he's progressing in shooting as you'd expect a good shooter to progress. Starts with heavy %s at wide open, and the numbers slowly rise with closer defenders. And of course if he were here, consider the Curry effect. Wiggins is the best example - not only did his 3% improve, his 3ptA improved as well. He went from averaging 1.8 wide open 3s to 2.2 per game. He went from 2.0 mostly open 3s per game (MIN) to 2.5 per in GS.

And this is without Klay!

Between that, Boucher's ability to cover ground quickly, and our defense's need for exactly that, cant imagine a more impactful fit at the C position that doesnt involve a superstar.

[TB]

^ I like that way of looking at shooting progression, makes a ton of sense. Next to Dray he's really the perfect fit. Hard to think a lineup of Steph/Klay/Wiggins/Dray/Boucher wouldn't be a massive net winner.

Lets get real crazy and go with:

Wiseman, Paschall, Looney, Mulder, Smiley, 2021 1st
for
Boucher and OG

They can have the minny pick instead if it ends up 8. I'm already anticipating a lot of "overpay" comments lol... but...

Use our new coach connection to snag Boban for vet min. Maybe Mills for MLE....

Steph / Mills / Nico
Klay / Poole / Lee
Wiggins / OG / Jessup
Dray / JTA /
Boucher / Boban / Chriss

[Chris Porter's Hair]

^ I like that way of looking at shooting progression, makes a ton of sense. Next to Dray he's really the perfect fit. Hard to think a lineup of Steph/Klay/Wiggins/Dray/Boucher wouldn't be a massive net winner.

Lets get real crazy and go with:

Wiseman, Paschall, Looney, Mulder, Smiley, 2021 1st
for
Boucher and OG

They can have the minny pick instead if it ends up 8. I'm already anticipating a lot of "overpay" comments lol... but...

Use our new coach connection to snag Boban for vet min. Maybe Mills for MLE....

Steph / Mills / Nico
Klay / Poole / Lee
Wiggins / OG / Jessup
Dray / JTA /
Boucher / Boban / Chriss

I can already hear the Toronto fans saying they wouldn't give you OG for that package, nevermind OG and Boucher. It isn't a very strong offer, and I'm still reasonably optimistic about Wiseman.

[FNQ]

Spoiler:

^ I like that way of looking at shooting progression, makes a ton of sense. Next to Dray he's really the perfect fit. Hard to think a lineup of Steph/Klay/Wiggins/Dray/Boucher wouldn't be a massive net winner.

Lets get real crazy and go with:

Wiseman, Paschall, Looney, Mulder, Smiley, 2021 1st
for
Boucher and OG

They can have the minny pick instead if it ends up 8. I'm already anticipating a lot of "overpay" comments lol... but...

Use our new coach connection to snag Boban for vet min. Maybe Mills for MLE....

Steph / Mills / Nico
Klay / Poole / Lee
Wiggins / OG / Jessup
Dray / JTA /
Boucher / Boban / Chriss

I can already hear the Toronto fans saying they wouldn't give you OG for that package, nevermind OG and Boucher. It isn't a very strong offer, and I'm still reasonably optimistic about Wiseman.

It's such a weird dynamic.. I do think its an overpay as well, from a practical standpoint. Fans would see it as an underpay. But I think this is a great example of fan mentality, and how they will be stubbornly against something for so long, and then once they finally come to terms with it, they go way too hard on the other side

There was a time when 3&D role players were barely worth 1sts.. they were constant MLE darlings and any signed above that were considered a bad contract instantly. When metrics started pointing out their value, a lot of fans dismissed it. How dare we break down a game into statistical data and analyze it? At some point, the tide turned, and then guys like Robert Covington were talked about being some of the most valuable players in the league.. because metrics had their impact as high, and high numbers = good, context be damned.

OG is the newest stunning ordeal to me.. a versatile defender and plus 3pt shooter. He's been called untouchable. Others ask for multiple 1sts for him from us (starting with the MIN pick). For a guy who's defensive impact went in the toilet as compared to last year.. why? Well it turns out, a guy like OG's defensive impact can only be realized if you have defensive anchors, because its so easy to avoid ace perimeter defenders in that case.

So why is he the crown jewel for us? Wiggins is in the same boat as him, though not as good, and we got a lottery pick to boot using salary that was already spoken for. Klay is coming back soon. JTA has sewn up the backup PF spot for now.. I like the guy in a vacuum, but he's the most overvalued of an overvalued archetype. That said, if TOR wanted to trade the 8/14 for OG/Boucher (and I'm clearly ok with the 14/Boucher part).. 8 for OG? Maybe, because of the situation we're in, I'd be down. But I'd be equally happy with Moody and probably more so, considering his lower salary and his quicker, more guard-like catch and shoot abilities (super quick release). Basically he's like a Klay understudy, which is why I've really locked into him with the MIN pick

[TB]

Whats funny is I originally put the minny pick and the 14 in it because on one hand I figured Toronto says no... but on the other hand thats 1 player and 2 picks that could end up being an all-star (or multiple) and making the Warriors look real bad getting a 3 and D for it. Really hard to gauge what a team and its fans consider correct value.

[ILOVEIT]

Listen....I WANT to like Wiseman for this team. But the image I can't get over is Wiseman getting used up by smaller guards.
What about him offensively is going to make up for him being a sweet sweet target for every opposing offensive player in the league next year? Please...convince me. Help...lol

Because if he's going to be isolated on switches over and over again in reg season and playoffs...and Warriors are out of position trying to make up for his gumby style defense....it's going to suck.

[Old_Blue]

Listen....I WANT to like Wiseman for this team. But the image I can't get over is Wiseman getting used up by smaller guards.
What about him offensively is going to make up for him being a sweet sweet target for every opposing offensive player in the league next year? Please...convince me. Help...lol

Because if he's going to be isolated on switches over and over again in reg season and playoffs...and Warriors are out of position trying to make up for his gumby style defense....it's going to suck.

Wiseman's defense is going to dictate how much he plays. The maturity with which he handles the situation will tell us what he's made of. If he mopes, pouts, etc, then he's a lost cause. If he accepts responsibility and puts in the work necessary to become a better defender, then there's definitely a chance for him to earn more playing time. My concern is that, as a highly touted player at every level he's ever played at, he might not have that chip on his shoulder that so many of the great ones have used to motivate themselves to get even better.

[EvanZ]

Lets get real crazy and go with:

Wiseman, Paschall, Looney, Mulder, Smiley, 2021 1st
for
Boucher and OG

They can have the minny pick instead if it ends up 8. I'm already anticipating a lot of "overpay" comments lol... but...

They ain't giving up OG for that. At the end of the day, that package is Wiseman and #14 for OG and Boucher. The other guys are throw-ins. Smiley? Are you serious? You get laughed out of the room (or zoom or whatever) for offering that package.

[WarriorGM]

Looney keeps getting little respect. It's ridiculous.

[cpower]

Wiseman is unplayable against elite small ball in 2 years at least, clips/lakers/suns/nets will eat him alive out there. THe league is getting smaller, faster and everyone can rotate, run and shoot threes. It's a scary world for the traditional Cs, that includes the best of them like Gobert, Jokic and Embiid..

[Scoots1994]

Listen....I WANT to like Wiseman for this team. But the image I can't get over is Wiseman getting used up by smaller guards.
What about him offensively is going to make up for him being a sweet sweet target for every opposing offensive player in the league next year? Please...convince me. Help...lol

Because if he's going to be isolated on switches over and over again in reg season and playoffs...and Warriors are out of position trying to make up for his gumby style defense....it's going to suck.

The only hope I can offer you is that Wiseman's athleticism is up to the task, but mentally he was 2 steps slow. He could make a huge leap in his second year. Of course his injury (again) is going to slow that development down some.

[Scoots1994]

Looney keeps getting little respect. It's ridiculous.

He doesn't make mistakes, but I wish he would shoot more. He's just too timid. That said, he's a bargain for the Warriors and definitely under-rated.

[Scoots1994]

Wiseman is unplayable against elite small ball in 2 years at least, clips/lakers/suns/nets will eat him alive out there. THe league is getting smaller, faster and everyone can rotate, run and shoot threes. It's a scary world for the traditional Cs, that includes the best of them like Gobert, Jokic and Embiid..

Yes and no. Having offensive and defensive skilled size is a different way the modern game can still be played. The Nuggets and Sixers basically only had Jokic and Embiid and made it to the semis because defending size is hard to do and a rare skill, and as the league goes smaller it becomes more valuable. But it only works if the center in question can play that game well enough to work.

Not that it's going to work with Wiseman, but it could.

[cpower]

Listen....I WANT to like Wiseman for this team. But the image I can't get over is Wiseman getting used up by smaller guards.
What about him offensively is going to make up for him being a sweet sweet target for every opposing offensive player in the league next year? Please...convince me. Help...lol

Because if he's going to be isolated on switches over and over again in reg season and playoffs...and Warriors are out of position trying to make up for his gumby style defense....it's going to suck.

he will miss the entire off season due to injuries and wont be playing major mins next year. His value will go down every year unless he has a major breakthrough.

[Scoots1994]

Listen....I WANT to like Wiseman for this team. But the image I can't get over is Wiseman getting used up by smaller guards.
What about him offensively is going to make up for him being a sweet sweet target for every opposing offensive player in the league next year? Please...convince me. Help...lol

Because if he's going to be isolated on switches over and over again in reg season and playoffs...and Warriors are out of position trying to make up for his gumby style defense....it's going to suck.

he will miss the entire off season due to injuries and wont be playing major mins next year. His value will go down every year unless he has a major breakthrough.

Do we know how much Warriors off-season there is going to be this year? I know it's more than it was last season but I don't think it's close to what it was a few years ago either.

Last I heard he was expected to be 100% by the start of camp and he's supposedly going to be working one on one during the off-season in a less organized team environment (at least in part because of current CBA restrictions).

My guess is that his mpg will go up this coming year.

[and1GS]

You think so? My assumption is they will bring in a placeholder one-year 5 (like what Chriss was supposed to be this year) and potentially shrink Wiseman's minutes closer to 15-20. Then if he earns more, he will get a bigger role.

I won't get into the whole 'chasing wins' debate, but it is undeniable we did **** around a bit this year trying to develop and win without doing much of either. With Klay fully back at some point during the year, development time is over IMO. You contribute to winning right now or you lose minutes. Which is another reason why I really hope we don't keep all the picks and Jessup. Just too much to balance and realistically expect a good season.

[clyde21]

Lets get real crazy and go with:

Wiseman, Paschall, Looney, Mulder, Smiley, 2021 1st
for
Boucher and OG

They can have the minny pick instead if it ends up 8. I'm already anticipating a lot of "overpay" comments lol... but...

whenever you have to throw a bunch of rando names just to make it seem like it's a good deal for the opposing team, know that it's not a good deal for the opposing team.

[clyde21]

i think people expecting something major back for Wise are being a little too optimistic, I realize ya'll love him here but that might not be the general sentiment for most people/GMs on other teams.

i would temper expectations when it comes to any Wiseman deal tbh...looking at all the teams I'm not even sure who really needs a C prospect that bad...going thru the entire NBA this is probably the teams that need the most:

Toronto (but they could get a C prospect with their top10 pick this year if they want to)
Sac (would make sense here in some capacity but who do they give back? definitely not Haliburton)
Wiz (would make sense here but they might like Gafford a little too much to give anything noteworthy for Wiseman)
Chalotte (this team might make the most sense but again, what do they trade? do they trade PJ or Bridges for Wise?...not sure)

i ono...not that many options are there.

i'd kick the tires on Dinwiddie/Claxton S&T for Oubre/Wiseman and see if Brooklyn goes for it but not even sure they do.

[whatisacenter]

i think people expecting something major back for Wise are being a little too optimistic, I realize ya'll love him here but that might not be the general sentiment for most people/GMs on other teams.

i would temper expectations when it comes to any Wiseman deal tbh...looking at all the teams I'm not even sure who really needs a C prospect that bad...going thru the entire NBA this is probably the teams that need the most:

Toronto (but they could get a C prospect with their top10 pick this year if they want to)
Sac (would make sense here in some capacity but who do they give back? definitely not Haliburton)
Wiz (would make sense here but they might like Gafford a little too much to give anything noteworthy for Wiseman)
Chalotte (this team might make the most sense but again, what do they trade? do they trade PJ or Bridges for Wise?...not sure)

i ono...not that many options are there.

i'd kick the tires on Dinwiddie/Claxton S&T for Oubre/Wiseman and see if Brooklyn goes for it but not even sure they do.

Neither the Nets or the Dubs can take back a S&T player