2021 Draft Thread

[Chupchup]

re: the #10 pick and moving down w/MEM:

So Kevin O Connor is the one who said that Memphis was targetting Bouknight or Kuminga, but I cant find anyone else corroborating it without linking it back to him. However a lot of Memphis beat reporters are still banging the drum that its Moody, and that does fit because at SF, they dont have anyone like him

And this is where I point out that Memphis has had a very, very good track record of draft picks in the past 4 seasons:

2017 - Dillon Brooks (45)
2018 - JJJ (4), Jevon Carter (32)
2019 - Ja Morant (2), Brandon Clarke (21)
2020 - Desmond Bane (30), Xavier Tillman (35)

Out of 7 picks, both 1sts and 2nds, they have: a franchise player (Ja), a potential franchise guy/all-star type (JJJ), a quality starter (Brooks), 3 good role players with starter upside (Clarke, Bane, Tillman), and only one miss (Jevon) - a 2nd rounder.

So maybe if Memphis is moving up.. pay attention to who they actually want. They have been great at identifying NBA talent and putting them into a system that works well for them. Unsurprisingly they are one of the best defensive teams in the league and got better via this trade as well.

ftw says Memphis is going for Franz Wagner.

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2021/07/memphis-grizzlies-nba-draft-news-franz-wagner-michigan-wolverines

In the story they reference a formula which Memphis uses to call all 3 memphis picks 2020:

Read on Twitter

[FNQ]

re: the #10 pick and moving down w/MEM:

So Kevin O Connor is the one who said that Memphis was targetting Bouknight or Kuminga, but I cant find anyone else corroborating it without linking it back to him. However a lot of Memphis beat reporters are still banging the drum that its Moody, and that does fit because at SF, they dont have anyone like him

And this is where I point out that Memphis has had a very, very good track record of draft picks in the past 4 seasons:

2017 - Dillon Brooks (45)
2018 - JJJ (4), Jevon Carter (32)
2019 - Ja Morant (2), Brandon Clarke (21)
2020 - Desmond Bane (30), Xavier Tillman (35)

Out of 7 picks, both 1sts and 2nds, they have: a franchise player (Ja), a potential franchise guy/all-star type (JJJ), a quality starter (Brooks), 3 good role players with starter upside (Clarke, Bane, Tillman), and only one miss (Jevon) - a 2nd rounder.

So maybe if Memphis is moving up.. pay attention to who they actually want. They have been great at identifying NBA talent and putting them into a system that works well for them. Unsurprisingly they are one of the best defensive teams in the league and got better via this trade as well.

ftw says Memphis is going for Franz Wagner.

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2021/07/memphis-grizzlies-nba-draft-news-franz-wagner-michigan-wolverines

In the story they reference a formula which Memphis uses to call all 3 memphis picks 2020:

Read on Twitter

I'd argue that if they stay at 10, yes. Because of the ones I think that are smokescreens (Kuminga, Giddey, Bouknight) and who I think their real target is (Moody) that only Giddey will still be on the board at 10. But Franz plays directly into how they play as well, good defender, good enough shooter.. I can see it

[WESCO]

Wagner or Moody for me.

Kuminga and Barnes are intriguing they just don't fit now/ I don't know if they fit with Wiseman long term.

I'm staying away from Giddey and bouknight for sure.

[KevinMcreynolds]

If I was running things I'd treat it like a vacuum. I think drafting players based on win-now scenarios and fit will leave us in long period of losing once Steph retires.

Ugh.. those are not mutually exclusive points and I dont know how to make that clearer. Win now does not equal fit. Fit equals fit. Fit should be considered with any pick you make at any time unless you are completely devoid of talent and starting over.

Fit & BPA are tied to the hip whether you like it or not, because there is no vacuum. Its a hypothetical so distant from reality that adhering to it religiously will hinder you more than it will help. A NBA team is like a house - you are just constantly remodeling. When you are remodeling you wouldn't be thinking "well, if I was building from scratch, this is what I'd do" - that doesnt matter! Unless you're knocking the whole thing down, you aren't building from scratch. So build with what you already have.

If you draft "BPA in a vacuum" and that player doesnt fit, then youll trade em right? But their value is worse because they look worse on our team. And the opposite happens for good fits - they look better, thus increase in value. If we're drafting players for a hypothetical Steph-less future years down the road.. maybe we should tell him, Klay, and Draymond that, and then figure out which direction we want to go.

This is basically people just trying to have their cake and eat it too.. you either make a commitment to winning with who we have now or you fully lock on the future. Half-assery never works and lands teams on the treadmill

All I'm saying is I want the most return on my investment. I'll take a shot on the high upside raw player instead of the polished player if it means we get 2 rings down the road as opposed to 1 ring next year.

[Old_Blue]

I'd argue that if they stay at 10, yes. Because of the ones I think that are smokescreens (Kuminga, Giddey, Bouknight) and who I think their real target is (Moody) that only Giddey will still be on the board at 10. But Franz plays directly into how they play as well, good defender, good enough shooter.. I can see it

Am I right in saying that you've got Kuminga dropping to #8? I've seen others suggest the same.

[killmongrel]

Read reports that the Knicks offered 19 and 21 for the 14th pick. That's surprising if true and GS didn't take it. Are prospects like Duarte and Murphy rising up the ranks that much? Couldn't they still grab at least one of them there and somebody like Garuba?

[TB]

That Grizzlies data is pretty amazing. And if they do end up with Wagner, they will have drafted some of my favorite role players pretty much every draft for the last few years lol.

[TB]

Read reports that the Knicks offered 19 and 21 for the 14th pick. That's surprising if true and GS didn't take it. Are prospects like Duarte and Murphy rising up the ranks that much? Couldn't they still grab at least one of them there and somebody like Garuba?

If its Mitchell or Duarte at 14 vs. 2 of Kai, Murphy, Garuba, Bones, Springer, Cooper etc.... I may like all of the options at 19/21 more than Mitchell or Duarte.

[FNQ]

I'd argue that if they stay at 10, yes. Because of the ones I think that are smokescreens (Kuminga, Giddey, Bouknight) and who I think their real target is (Moody) that only Giddey will still be on the board at 10. But Franz plays directly into how they play as well, good defender, good enough shooter.. I can see it

Am I right in saying that you've got Kuminga dropping to #8? I've seen others suggest the same.

More hoping that than anything. I dont think we let him get past 7. And frankly if he gets to 8, and ORL has taken Barnes already.. he's gotta get to 9, right?

[killmongrel]

Read reports that the Knicks offered 19 and 21 for the 14th pick. That's surprising if true and GS didn't take it. Are prospects like Duarte and Murphy rising up the ranks that much? Couldn't they still grab at least one of them there and somebody like Garuba?

If its Mitchell or Duarte at 14 vs. 2 of Kai, Murphy, Garuba, Bones, Springer, Cooper etc.... I may like all of the options at 19/21 more than Mitchell or Duarte.

Definitely. I'm just not excited about Duarte at 14. Like, is what he brings more than what we could get in FA? I understand getting a solid rotational player at a rookie salary for the next 4 year is great, but look at the options that could be available at 19/21. If we get Kuminga at 7 and then grab Murphy and Garuba at 19 and 21, that is a haul.

[FNQ]

Read reports that the Knicks offered 19 and 21 for the 14th pick. That's surprising if true and GS didn't take it. Are prospects like Duarte and Murphy rising up the ranks that much? Couldn't they still grab at least one of them there and somebody like Garuba?

No reason for us to take it now, if its there on draft day, we'll see. But I'm never a fan of trading down before the draft unless the value is insane

[Twinkie defense]

I have a feeling we are going to draft Mitchell at 14. What team in top 13 outside of us have been linked to him? When I look at those teams and their rosters, I can maybe see some interest from the Grizz, Spurs, or Pacers... but thats entirely as a 6th man type.

And by the way I'd include the Warriors in the category of "why do they have interest in Mitchell as a lotto pick"...

If I was mocking what I think teams SHOULD do, I don't think i'd be drafting Mitchell until 19 with the Knicks.

Mitchell is elite in one important NBA skill set, perimeter on-ball defense - and the success of players like Patrick Beverly have demonstrated how important it can be to have defensive pest in the backcourt. He will definitely be off the board by #14.

I'd rather have a guy who is elite at one thing than a guy who is ok at multiple things.

[WESCO]

If I was running things I'd treat it like a vacuum. I think drafting players based on win-now scenarios and fit will leave us in long period of losing once Steph retires.

Ugh.. those are not mutually exclusive points and I dont know how to make that clearer. Win now does not equal fit. Fit equals fit. Fit should be considered with any pick you make at any time unless you are completely devoid of talent and starting over.

Fit & BPA are tied to the hip whether you like it or not, because there is no vacuum. Its a hypothetical so distant from reality that adhering to it religiously will hinder you more than it will help. A NBA team is like a house - you are just constantly remodeling. When you are remodeling you wouldn't be thinking "well, if I was building from scratch, this is what I'd do" - that doesnt matter! Unless you're knocking the whole thing down, you aren't building from scratch. So build with what you already have.

If you draft "BPA in a vacuum" and that player doesnt fit, then youll trade em right? But their value is worse because they look worse on our team. And the opposite happens for good fits - they look better, thus increase in value. If we're drafting players for a hypothetical Steph-less future years down the road.. maybe we should tell him, Klay, and Draymond that, and then figure out which direction we want to go.

This is basically people just trying to have their cake and eat it too.. you either make a commitment to winning with who we have now or you fully lock on the future. Half-assery never works and lands teams on the treadmill

All I'm saying is I want the most return on my investment. I'll take a shot on the high upside raw player instead of the polished player if it means we get 2 rings down the road as opposed to 1 ring next year.

It's so hard to win 1. Give me 1 sooner than the hope for 2 later.

[killmongrel]

Read reports that the Knicks offered 19 and 21 for the 14th pick. That's surprising if true and GS didn't take it. Are prospects like Duarte and Murphy rising up the ranks that much? Couldn't they still grab at least one of them there and somebody like Garuba?

No reason for us to take it now, if its there on draft day, we'll see. But I'm never a fan of trading down before the draft unless the value is insane

That's fair.

[Mob Byers]

Should be pretty easy to get a 2nd rounder this year, hopefully they can do that and take a flier on a guy to fill in that 2nd 2 way spot next to Mannion

Or maybe they just go for undrafted guys there

[HiRez]

If I had to guess right now its Kuminga and then we take a shooter at 14.

This is why I don't understand them rejecting NY's 14 for 19+21 offer. If all you want is a shooter, I feel like there's a bunch of good options down there...Springer, Primo, Butler, Wieskamp, Mann, Dosunmu, etc. Plus others who may drop to #14, including Sengun, Zhaire Williams, Garuba, or hell, even Duarte, Mitchell, or Kispert. Even if you don't want to take on that many rookies, they're assets that can be dangled in trades.

On the other hand, there might be someone who drops to #14 like Moody, Giddey, JJ, Kai, who won't be available after that. But I don't think you need #14 just to get a run of the mill shooter (seems like Duarte is the primary target).

[KevinMcreynolds]

could simply be they don't want use 3 roster spots on 3 rookies

[lars_rosenberg]

I have a feeling we are going to draft Mitchell at 14. What team in top 13 outside of us have been linked to him? When I look at those teams and their rosters, I can maybe see some interest from the Grizz, Spurs, or Pacers... but thats entirely as a 6th man type.

And by the way I'd include the Warriors in the category of "why do they have interest in Mitchell as a lotto pick"...

If I was mocking what I think teams SHOULD do, I don't think i'd be drafting Mitchell until 19 with the Knicks.

Mitchell is elite in one important NBA skill set, perimeter on-ball defense - and the success of players like Patrick Beverly have demonstrated how important it can be to have defensive pest in the backcourt. He will definitely be off the board by #14.

I'd rather have a guy who is elite at one thing than a guy who is ok at multiple things.

Actually Beverly is a loser. He's always lost badly in the playoffs.

Should be pretty easy to get a 2nd rounder this year, hopefully they can do that and take a flier on a guy to fill in that 2nd 2 way spot next to Mannion

Or maybe they just go for undrafted guys there

There are teams with a lot of second rounders, like New Orleans and OKC, so it's likely they'll look to sell, they can't use so many roster spot.

If I had to guess right now its Kuminga and then we take a shooter at 14.

This is why I don't understand them rejecting NY's 14 for 19+21 offer. If all you want is a shooter, I feel like there's a bunch of good options down there...Springer, Primo, Butler, Wieskamp, Mann, Dosunmu, etc. Plus others who may drop to #14, including Sengun, Zhaire Williams, Garuba, or hell, even Duarte, Mitchell, or Kispert. Even if you don't want to take on that many rookies, they're assets that can be dangled in trades.

On the other hand, there might be someone who drops to #14 like Moody, Giddey, JJ, Kai, who won't be available after that. But I don't think you need #14 just to get a run of the mill shooter (seems like Duarte is the primary target).

I guess the Warriors don't want 4 rookies on the roster + Wiseman and Mannion.
There's also Jessup coming from Australia, so if we trade down or get a second rounder we'll fill the roster with rookies.
Having 2 bonus roster spots with the two-way contract helps, but 6 players to be devoped out of 17 is way too much for a contending team.
Vet minimum free agents are a safer route.
Also, I didn't check the numbers, but I suspect a first round pick in the twenties is not cheaper than a vet minimum.

[The-Power]

Read reports that the Knicks offered 19 and 21 for the 14th pick. That's surprising if true and GS didn't take it. Are prospects like Duarte and Murphy rising up the ranks that much? Couldn't they still grab at least one of them there and somebody like Garuba?

No reason for us to take it now, if its there on draft day, we'll see. But I'm never a fan of trading down before the draft unless the value is insane

This. The Warriors will want to see whether a) someone they are very high on is still on the board, b) someone falls who is wanted by another team which is willing to offer us a great deal or c) a star becomes available and his team prefers the higher pick.

No reason to prematurely pull the trigger on this one; it's not like we'd have royally screwed up if the offer was gone by the time we pick – especially since I really can't imagine that the Warriors would be willing to add three Rookies to the roster next year (if they trade down for two picks, one of their three picks is likely to be traded for someone who can help more next year, I'd think).

[shazam_guy]

I honestly don't think anyone would be talking about Giddey anywhere this high if it hadn't been for LaMelo turning out well last year. But one surprise doesn't mean all apparently similar things will surprise the same way.